Why are possessions et al. estimated using crude formulae?
Posted: Sun Jun 04, 2017 9:54 am
Why are possessions estimated using crude formulae, instead of being properly and precisely counted?
For example, Basketball-Reference (http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/glossary.html) uses
0.5 * ((Tm FGA + 0.4 * Tm FTA - 1.07 * (Tm ORB / (Tm ORB + Opp DRB)) * (Tm FGA - Tm FG) + Tm TOV) + (Opp FGA + 0.4 * Opp FTA - 1.07 * (Opp ORB / (Opp ORB + Tm DRB)) * (Opp FGA - Opp FG) + Opp TOV)).
I believe the NBA still uses (http://www.nba.com/thunder/news/stats101.html):
Pos = .96 * (FGA + (.44*FTA) - OR + TO)
I understand that for earlier years, we don't have more detailed play-by-play information and so precisely counting possessions for earlier years may not be feasible. Instead we use the above formulae to estimate the number of possessions.
But surely it is a simple matter to count possessions for games taking place today, now that we have all the play-by-play data we need? Why isn't this being done?
I could say the same of many other stats — e.g. True Shooting Attempts is defined as FGA + 0.44 * FTA. Instead of using the crude 0.44 multiplier, surely we can nowadays actually determine how many True Shooting Attempts a player actually made in the game?
For example, Basketball-Reference (http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/glossary.html) uses
0.5 * ((Tm FGA + 0.4 * Tm FTA - 1.07 * (Tm ORB / (Tm ORB + Opp DRB)) * (Tm FGA - Tm FG) + Tm TOV) + (Opp FGA + 0.4 * Opp FTA - 1.07 * (Opp ORB / (Opp ORB + Tm DRB)) * (Opp FGA - Opp FG) + Opp TOV)).
I believe the NBA still uses (http://www.nba.com/thunder/news/stats101.html):
Pos = .96 * (FGA + (.44*FTA) - OR + TO)
I understand that for earlier years, we don't have more detailed play-by-play information and so precisely counting possessions for earlier years may not be feasible. Instead we use the above formulae to estimate the number of possessions.
But surely it is a simple matter to count possessions for games taking place today, now that we have all the play-by-play data we need? Why isn't this being done?
I could say the same of many other stats — e.g. True Shooting Attempts is defined as FGA + 0.44 * FTA. Instead of using the crude 0.44 multiplier, surely we can nowadays actually determine how many True Shooting Attempts a player actually made in the game?