APBRmetrics

2018 and 2019 may have only one tiptop tier team or two or maybe 3-4 if you generous or anticipate some successful bold moves. But for this thread the focus is 2020 (and beyond). Who do you like to rise to the top tier of challengers? I'll offer some thoughts later. So first cracks are available, as interested.

Who is already set for peaking in 2020? Who either needs to accelerate or is headed for a later peak? Who will peak and starting dipping significantly before then? Correctable? Will they?

Great question!

There are a few ways we could dive into this and without doubt some deep diving into projections could help spit out some predictions.

But I'll take a very simplistic approach and one that someone like Darryl Morey has always acknowledged as being critical in having a championship winner above all else. You need superstar talent, not all stars....but all NBA 1st team/perennial MVP talent.

You can have all the strategy,analytics,"culture" in the world but it has been proven time and time again throughout nba history....you need a MVP calibre player to have a chance.

In saying that then.......

Any team in 2020 that has an MVP candidate (right age as well)

Durant, curry (warriors)
Anthony Davis (pelicans)
giannis (bucks)
Kwhai (Spurs)
Westbrook (thunder)
Harden (rockets)

Probable mvp calibre in 2020.....

Lebron (cavs) will be 36ish by 2020, in 99% of cases someone at this age isn't an MVP but we know lebron is a cyborg. This is a stretch for sure.

Potentially a year or 2 early but could make a MVP leap for sure...

Towns (twolves)
Embiid, Simmons (76ers)

And finally 1 MVP pick based on talent and my eye test on offense side only that sees a future James harden type role of scoring and facilitating if in the right situation and right coach

Devin booker. Obviously can score, but from limited vision I have seen of him he has very good court vision and passing ability and could develop into a harden type player.

if a team has one of those top 7 players they have a championship chance. If they have lebron in 2020, there is some chance. If embiid, Simmons, booker, towns continue to develop teams with these players have a chance.

2020/2021 season...Sixers with 2 potential mvps vs warriors?

Any love for Jokic? I think any reasonable aging curve calculation will have him as the clear-cut MVP in 2020. He's not quite what I expected LeBron's heir to look like, but his statistical resume is utterly bulletproof.

Right way to start Watto.

I wouldn't put Booker it that group. If Lilliard doesn't make it, Booker is way behind him

Blake Griffin? I think he should at least be a potential candidate.

Jokic belongs based on overall RPM, etc.

Towns has a long way to go on RPM. Got defense has to improve.

Cousins might belong on the long list, if others are given hope for improvement.

Jimmy Butler and Paul George not mentioned above. Probably right. No Porzingis either. Probably right for now, in NY.

Miami, nah, at the moment. Expecting one or more surprises though.

No Toronto. No Wizards. Agree with first. Wiz... need a lot of changes but have a slight chance of getting up in the fight.

Celtics seen as peaking later tha 2020? Playoff RPM was even lower on Horford than regular season. Haven't checked IT. I don't expect Fultz to at this rank but I haven't paid attention to him yet.

Utah probably not, but I think more about it later.

Myles Turner? Maybe.

Fair point on jokic. Oversight on my behalf. statistically he holds up and is projecting in that all NBA first team direction for sure. I just didn't get to see a whole lot of Denver this season, so probably a reason I forgot him.

Agree that booker is a massive stretch, the comparison with lillard is very fair. All star calibre but not MVP calibre. There was just a few things I saw with booker and I thought "geez if he could somehow play under dantoni at some point he has some very harden like characteristics". Jokic should for sure be on the list and booker off it. I would just love to see booker in the right situation.

When you look through the league with the lens of "do they have an MVP calibre" player I just can't see teams like Boston, Toronto, Utah who are good teams getting to that next level of being a contender. It's often said the hardest jump is going from a good/great team to a championship calibre team and in reality it comes down to having an MVP level player.

It's much easier to go from mediocre to good/great then From good/great to legitimate contender.

It's why I agreed with what Hinkley was doing if the sole purpose was to be a legitamate contender and not just a playoff team.

Butler and George are a no.
Cousins is a no. (Attitude the reason, not skills. He has always been top 3 in my coach killer metric)
Blake is a no

The above are very good but not that top 5 type. Blake was in the conversation a few years ago but injuries and league style of play takes him out of the conversation now.

Porzingas is interesting and if I solely had a future championship in mind, I'd probably have him over butler, George, Blake, cousins. Just from the perspective he may have the ceiling to get to top 5 in the league. The others don't.

Around twenty names mentioned. There are at least four for sure. How many more should remain? Probably only 4 more. But cut to 10-12 at most total first. I know the OP already has but I'll need to. Who else is ready to cut to 12, 10 or 8? There are choices, some fairly easy, the last ones might be hard.

What are the criteria?

Some possibilities:

Current metrics
Projected metrics
Elevated playoff performance
Clear cut team leader
Super driven to win title
Proximity to performance peak in 2020 / age
One on one clutch performance (offense & defense)

Of course lots about teammates and team but first about the superstar imperative.

Others can step or jump as they want.

After using open mind / caution I'm going to jump ahead... with a chance for stepping back later.

For 2020, I'm going to say the superstar / leader will be Curry / Durant, LeBron or Kawhi. My possible additions are Davis, Jokic, Giannis and that is it. I am feeling no on Westbrook and Harden and everybody else. But I might change if the arguments are compelling.

I am thinking the cutoff for being on my final list will probably to a 5 or 10 plus % chance at the title. That will include superstar and everything else. Steps to get there. Those left off my list might still have say a 2% chance, I don"t completely dismiss them. But almost. Right now I am feeling 2020 will be like 2018 & 2019 or slightly to modestly different. 2021 or 2022 will probably much more different / open.

Warriors, what, at least 50% chance at 2020 title? LeBron at least 10%, maybe 20%. Give Kawhi at least 5-10%. That is 65-80% committed by me.

Denver needs to define style of play. And probably fire Malone. Sometime between now and next summer.

New Orleans needs to fire Dell Demps sometime between 1-2 years ago (or never hired) and now. And fire Gentry in August.

Crow wrote:Warriors, what, at least 50% chance at 2020 title? LeBron at least 10%, maybe 20%. Give Kawhi at least 5-10%. That is 65-80% committed by me.

Not the most liquid market right now, but 5Dimes has the no-vig odds for the Warriors in '17-18 at 52%. There's no way they are 50% in 2020. Not even close.

don't have anything to add about 2020, but but most places seem to have the warriors at -180 to -220 for next season so somewhere in the 60-65% range

sndesai1 wrote:don't have anything to add about 2020, but but most places seem to have the warriors at -180 to -220 for next season so somewhere in the 60-65% range

You can't just use the raw line, as these futures have a ton of juice built in. Here's the table based on 5Dimes.

For me, Warriors at 50% chance at title in 2020 was the low end on first blush... and I am reluctant to go lower.

A 50% chance at a title is roughly equivalent to 95% chance in 1st round, 90% in second, 80% in conference finals, 70% in finals. Maybe 50% is a conventional limit. If I bet it would probably be with Warriors not against them. Perhaps I am not giving enough consideration to injury or "unusual" / league-minded refereeing. Absolute bottom for me, at this point, would be 40% chance.



Market has 4 contenders much over 2% for next season. That seems reasonable.


I should probably consider whether Embid has better chance than Jokic. Ben Simmons is not a major force in my consideration of 76ers' chances.