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2017-18 team win projection contest
Posted: Fri Sep 29, 2017 5:08 am
by Crow
Fresh thread for entrants.
I haven't decided whether to do or not. But time is creeping up so, ta dah, thread.
Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest
Posted: Sat Sep 30, 2017 7:47 pm
by eminence
First year on the forum, but may have to participate. Any general guidelines?
Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest
Posted: Sat Sep 30, 2017 7:52 pm
by Crow
Welcome. I prefer win projections in whole wins but some prefer to use fractions. Do what you want. Make it total 1230 wins. Say as much as you like about method. That is a lot of the value of the exercise. Submit by say the 2nd-3rd day of the season.
There is usually one or more people who track performance. Methods vary.
Compete, boast, cringe. No prizes but glory.
Last season's thread
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=9188
Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest
Posted: Tue Oct 03, 2017 5:00 pm
by shadow
I took the current Pinnacle line for each team, converted it to what the line would be if the juice on both sides was equal, and then adjusted each team down by an equal amount so it summed to 1230. For instance, the Boston line is 55.5 with under at -153 and over at +131. That's roughly equivalent to a line of 52.5 if the juice was the same on both sides.
Here are the current projections based on those results:
Code: Select all
ATL 25.79
BOS 52.38
BRK 25.79
CHA 43.91
CHI 22.45
CLE 54.91
DAL 34.76
DEN 44.37
DET 38.33
GSW 67.72
HOU 56.38
IND 31.79
LAC 43.86
LAL 32.61
MEM 38.45
MIA 43.33
MIL 45.29
MIN 47.16
NOP 39.33
NYK 28.29
OKC 55.62
ORL 31.70
PHI 38.09
PHX 27.44
POR 41.97
SAC 27.79
SAS 54.95
TOR 46.92
UTA 38.70
WAS 49.94
Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest
Posted: Wed Oct 04, 2017 3:48 pm
by Nate
The start of a contest (or before) is a good time to talk about scoring. At the end of the last one EvanZ was talking about Huber Loss (
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Huber_loss).
Something else to consider is whether a scoring method that controlls for player minutes or some other factors could make sense.
Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest
Posted: Thu Oct 05, 2017 9:58 pm
by sbs
Does anyone have any player minutes they'd like to generously share?
Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest
Posted: Fri Oct 06, 2017 1:04 pm
by JoshEngleman
shadow wrote:I took the current Pinnacle line for each team, converted it to what the line would be if the juice on both sides was equal, and then adjusted each team down by an equal amount so it summed to 1230. For instance, the Boston line is 55.5 with under at -153 and over at +131. That's roughly equivalent to a line of 52.5 if the juice was the same on both sides.
Here are the current projections based on those results:
I used these win projections and plugged them into the '17-18 schedule, to get an idea of conference strength/true talent. Looks to be ~1.1 wins depending on conference, with the Heat having the biggest boost (+1.7) and the Jazz having the biggest loss (-1.5). I find in interesting that the Nuggets and Raptors have the same true talent estimate. Even more interesting, not that it's a shock, is that the Cavs would be 5th in the West. The is a giant gap between the the Spurs and the Wolves, which would be filled comfortably by the top 3 from the East.
Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest
Posted: Sat Oct 07, 2017 12:26 am
by Kevin Pelton
Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest
Posted: Mon Oct 09, 2017 1:02 am
by Crow
How about a deadline of 5pm Oct. 17. Up to Midnight Oct.19 with excuse. After that... needs a really good excuse.
You can submit and revise the originals til the 17th or submit a revised set in a new post.
Remember to add to 1230 wins or they might get adjusted or just hurt you unadjusted.
If any others want to post minute distributions- before or after deadline- that can be helpful / good for discussion.
Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest
Posted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 10:31 am
by Mike G
EDITED Oct. 13: After adjusting for rookies, Sixers (with two #1 picks) gain 8 expected wins.
EDIT #2 Oct. 17 after Kevin P updates the player minutes and adjusting for team over/under history (Wins/PythWins)
Code: Select all
West W East W
GSW 71 Cle 55
Hou 65 Tor 47
NOP 48 Was 49
Min 47 Cha 45
OKC 48 Mil 46
Den 47 Mia 43
SAS 47 Bos 44
LAC 43 Det 33
Por 41 Brk 33
Uta 38 Ind 31
Dal 39 Phl 38
Mem 35 Orl 33
Sac 31 NYK 29
Phx 31 Atl 22
LAL 28 Chi 23
West averages 44 wins vs. 38 for East teams. This is after adjusting by roughly 1 win for conference.
I've not looked into recent developments, just going with Kevin Pelton's minutes posted on Oct. 6
Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest
Posted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 3:47 pm
by nbacouchside
Finally got around to this. (Updated)
Code: Select all
TEAM Wins
GSW 69
CLE 60
HOU 59
OKC 52
LAC 52
SAS 51
TOR 48
WAS 47
MIL 47
MIN 47
DEN 46
NOP 44
CHO 44
BOS 44
MIA 42
UTA 41
POR 41
PHI 33
MEM 33
ORL 33
IND 33
DET 33
DAL 33
NYK 32
SAC 30
BRK 29
ATL 29
CHI 29
PHO 25
LAL 24
Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest
Posted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 8:25 pm
by J.E.
Looks like the biggest difference between Vegas and projections on this board is going to be the Celtics
From a pure plus-minus standpoint, they're now without their 3 best players in ON and ON/OFF rating from last season
Hayward's good in both BoxScore and plus-minus measures, while Irving has good individual numbers but rates far below general opinion in pure lineup metrics like RAPM, never producing good plus-minus numbers when not paired with James
Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest
Posted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 8:36 pm
by JoshEngleman
Here goes nothing. Small adjustment today. Dropped Miami by 1 win, increase Boston by 1 win. Just saw the McGruder news.
Code: Select all
CLE 52
TOR 49
WAS 45
CHA 44
MIA 42
BOS 42
MIL 40
DET 36
PHI 36
NYK 34
IND 33
ORL 33
BRK 30
ATL 28
CHI 26
GSW 65
HOU 57
OKC 53
SAS 51
MIN 51
LAC 49
UTA 45
DEN 44
NOP 43
MEM 38
POR 38
DAL 36
SAC 33
LAL 29
PHX 28
Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest
Posted: Fri Oct 13, 2017 2:34 am
by eminence
Here we go, first shot at something like this. We'll see how it turns out
Code: Select all
Team Conference Win Lose Win%
TOR Eastern 56 26 0.68
CLE Eastern 54 28 0.66
BOS Eastern 52 30 0.63
MIL Eastern 50 32 0.61
WAS Eastern 47 35 0.57
MIA Eastern 44 38 0.54
CHA Eastern 42 40 0.51
DET Eastern 36 46 0.44
PHI Eastern 35 47 0.43
IND Eastern 34 48 0.41
NYK Eastern 30 52 0.37
ORL Eastern 28 54 0.34
BRK Eastern 25 57 0.30
CHI Eastern 24 58 0.29
ATL Eastern 22 60 0.27
GSW Western 70 12 0.85
HOU Western 58 24 0.71
SAS Western 56 26 0.68
DEN Western 52 30 0.63
UTA Western 50 32 0.61
OKC Western 49 33 0.60
LAC Western 47 35 0.57
MIN Western 44 38 0.54
NOP Western 40 42 0.49
POR Western 38 44 0.46
MEM Western 36 46 0.44
SAC Western 32 50 0.39
DAL Western 30 52 0.37
LAL Western 25 57 0.30
PHO Western 24 58 0.29
Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest
Posted: Fri Oct 13, 2017 7:02 am
by shadow
Code: Select all
ATL 27
BOS 52
BRK 26
CHA 43
CHI 25
CLE 54
DAL 32
DEN 45
DET 40
GSW 65
HOU 55
IND 32
LAC 46
LAL 28
MEM 41
MIA 43
MIL 45
MIN 45
NOP 41
NYK 31
OKC 51
ORL 33
PHI 35
PHX 29
POR 44
SAC 29
SAS 57
TOR 48
UTA 40
WAS 48