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2018 Playoff summaries and notes.
Posted: Thu Apr 19, 2018 7:16 pm
by Mike G
After 2 games for everyone:
Code: Select all
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.61 LeBron James Cle 42 .642 35.7 10.8 6.5 1.3 2.7 .4 3.48
.48 James Harden Hou 36 .533 33.0 3.8 7.5 2.6 3.1 1.6 3.21
.43 Giannis A Mil 44 .644 26.6 10.0 4.6 1.7 2.9 .4 2.33
.42 Victor Oladipo Ind 33 .643 39.4 5.7 6.5 3.4 5.7 .6 3.13
.38 Clint Capela Hou 32 .696 24.9 15.2 1.2 .6 .6 2.4 2.92
.38 Russell Westbrook OKC 37 .475 23.7 10.2 9.1 2.5 4.0 .0 2.47
.37 Anthony Davis NO 41 .559 28.1 11.4 .9 1.8 3.7 2.7 2.22
.36 Kevin Durant GSW 35 .644 34.4 9.0 6.8 1.0 3.1 .5 2.49
.36 Al Horford Bos 40 .741 21.4 9.1 3.2 1.8 .5 1.4 2.15
.34 Klay Thompson GSW 38 .853 40.9 1.1 3.4 .5 1.0 .0 2.21
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.33 Jrue Holiday NO 39 .581 28.7 4.4 5.1 1.0 2.0 1.0 2.07
.32 Ben Simmons Phl 37 .539 19.9 9.1 9.6 1.0 3.8 1.0 2.09
.32 Chris Paul Hou 32 .569 28.6 3.2 6.8 2.9 4.1 .6 2.36
.30 Donovan Mitchell Uta 39 .524 27.0 7.1 2.1 1.4 2.6 .5 1.87
.29 Terry Rozier Bos 39 .622 22.6 3.8 4.5 .9 .0 .5 1.80
.29 Paul George OKC 41 .614 28.7 7.3 .4 .5 3.2 1.4 1.71
.28 Khris Middleton Mil 43 .757 26.1 5.6 2.2 .9 2.6 .4 1.56
.25 John Wall Was 36 .547 20.8 4.0 11.9 2.0 5.0 1.5 1.68
.25 Nikola Mirotic NO 40 .611 17.2 8.2 1.4 .9 .5 2.8 1.49
.24 Serge Ibaka Tor 32 .673 19.0 13.9 2.1 .0 .6 2.8 1.84
Here's an alternative top 20, with
xyz being the average of eWins, Win Shares, and VORP-scaled-to-wins.
Code: Select all
xyz Player Tm MP eW WS vW
.70 LeBron James CLE 84 .61 .68 .81
.50 Al Horford BOS 80 .36 .61 .52
.46 James Harden HOU 72 .48 .38 .51
.45 Giannis A MIL 88 .43 .49 .41
.42 Klay Thompson GSW 75 .34 .52 .40
.41 Kevin Durant GSW 70 .36 .49 .38
.40 Clint Capela HOU 63 .38 .50 .31
.39 Victor Oladipo IND 65 .42 .30 .45
.37 Terry Rozier BOS 78 .29 .48 .35
.33 Jrue Holiday NOP 77 .33 .33 .33
xyz Player Tm MP eW WS vW
.32 Ben Simmons PHI 73 .32 .33 .32
.32 R Westbrook OKC 74 .38 .22 .35
.31 Nikola Mirotic NOP 79 .25 .33 .35
.30 Khris Middleton MIL 85 .28 .33 .28
.29 Chris Paul HOU 64 .32 .26 .28
.27 JaVale McGee GSW 35 .21 .31 .28
.27 Serge Ibaka TOR 64 .24 .31 .25
.26 Anthony Davis NOP 81 .37 .26 .13
.24 Derrick Favors UTA 67 .21 .27 .24
.23 John Wall WAS 71 .25 .17 .27
.23 Dario Saric PHI 67 .23 .20 .25
For some (Holiday, Simmons) it's total agreement. Then there are others in disagreement by a factor of 2 or more -- Anthony Davis and these:
Code: Select all
xyz Player Tm MP eW WS vW
.22 Thaddeus Young IND 66 .08 .29 .29
.20 Corey Brewer OKC 62 .09 .25 .27
.20 Myles Turner IND 69 .20 .28 .13
.20 DeMar DeRozan TOR 72 .23 .26 .10
.19 OG Anunoby TOR 41 .10 .24 .22
.18 D Mitchell UTA 78 .30 .17 .08
.18 Paul George OKC 81 .29 .17 .09
.18 Ricky Rubio UTA 66 .23 .12 .19
.18 J Valanciunas TOR 46 .24 .17 .12
.16 L Aldridge SAS 62 .22 .16 .09
Any opinions on which stats vastly over- or under-rate these guys?
Re: 2018 Playoff summaries and notes.
Posted: Sat Apr 21, 2018 4:34 pm
by Mike G
And I thought everyone had an opinion.
Well, check out the impact distribution of the Cavs, after 3 games:
Code: Select all
. Cavs e480 ws48 BPM min eWins WS vorp
LeBron 3.52 .310 15.5 126 .92 .81 .57
Love 1.10 .055 -4.0 106 .24 .12 -.05
Smith .04 .041 -2.0 98 .01 .08 .00
Nance .57 .129 1.3 72 .08 .19 .06
Hood .16 .014 -5.4 65 .02 .02 -.06
Hill .48 .095 -3.1 62 .06 .12 -.02
Korver -.06 .018 -2.6 55 -.01 .02 -.01
Green -.21 -.103 -7.0 55 -.02 -.12 -.07
Clarkson -.34 -.036 -7.6 55 -.04 -.04 -.08
Calderon -1.38 -.201 -13.1 23 -.07 -.10 -.07
. totals: 717 1.21 1.12 .27
LeBron has 76% of the eWins, 73% of their Win Shares, and 206% of the VORP.
Here are the Pelicans after going 3-0
Code: Select all
. Pels e480 ws48 BPM min eWins WS vorp
Davis 2.50 .236 4.0 117 .61 .58 .18
Mirotic 2.36 .317 11.6 109 .54 .72 .38
Holiday 1.92 .200 5.9 109 .43 .45 .22
Rondo 1.50 .165 2.8 107 .33 .37 .13
Moore -.05 .038 -1.3 79 -.01 .06 .01
Clark .03 .047 -.8 69 .00 .07 .02
Miller .24 .105 1.7 52 .03 .11 .05
Hill -.02 .148 1.6 41 .00 .13 .04
Diallo -.42 -.031 -7.2 21 -.02 -.01 -.03
. totals 704 1.92 2.47 1.01
Their Big 4 have 86% of the WS, 91% of vorp, and 100% of eWins. And doing 61% of the minutes.
Re: 2018 Playoff summaries and notes.
Posted: Thu Apr 26, 2018 1:08 am
by Mike G
After 4 games, or 5, ranked by eWins per game:
Code: Select all
eW/G per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.282 LeBron James Cle 43 .613 32.2 10.9 6.9 .8 2.8 .9 3.15
.224 Anthony Davis NOP 39 .629 33.2 11.4 1.0 1.7 2.4 2.6 2.78
.220 James Harden Hou 35 .560 34.6 4.8 6.1 2.6 3.0 1.1 2.99
.191 Kevin Durant GSW 37 .595 32.3 8.8 4.8 .6 3.6 .8 2.47
.189 Giannis A Mil 39 .629 25.5 8.5 5.8 1.5 2.4 .9 2.30
.186 John Wall Was 38 .525 22.2 5.3 14.4 2.7 4.2 1.0 2.38
.169 Ben Simmons Phl 38 .545 15.9 10.5 8.3 2.4 4.2 .6 2.15
.157 Chris Paul Hou 32 .619 28.1 4.2 6.5 2.9 2.7 .3 2.36
.156 Donovan Mitchell Uta 38 .534 27.2 8.3 2.7 1.2 2.6 .7 1.98
.152 Jrue Holiday NOP 38 .620 28.9 3.9 5.7 1.2 3.3 .5 1.94
eW/G per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.147 Victor Oladipo Ind 36 .533 25.0 5.8 6.5 2.3 4.9 .7 1.95
.146 Khris Middleton Mil 39 .672 26.2 5.7 3.1 .9 1.9 .7 1.80
.146 Clint Capela Hou 31 .589 17.8 16.5 1.7 .3 .6 2.8 2.30
.146 LaMarcus Aldridge SA 35 .584 26.6 9.9 2.2 .6 2.0 .4 1.97
.143 Nikola Mirotic NOP 37 .702 20.3 9.4 1.3 1.7 .5 2.4 1.85
.140 Ricky Rubio Uta 35 .497 19.4 8.3 8.7 2.1 3.9 .8 1.94
.127 Al Horford Bos 36 .641 20.7 10.1 3.0 .8 2.5 1.3 1.71
.126 Russell Westbrook OK 37 .457 18.8 10.8 7.7 1.7 5.3 .0 1.64
.115 Paul George OKC 40 .606 26.6 5.2 1.2 1.1 3.7 .7 1.37
.113 DeMar DeRozan Tor 37 .523 24.1 4.6 5.9 .5 2.8 .3 1.49
.113 Rudy Gobert Uta 36 .663 18.5 11.2 1.8 1.0 2.4 1.8 1.50
Alternative ranking in which xyz is the 5th root of: (mpg*(PER-5)*(WS/48)*(BPM+5)*(eW/480))
Code: Select all
xyz playoffs tm mpg PER WS/48 BPM e480
8.51 LeBron James Cle 43 32.5 .324 14.3 3.15
7.23 James Harden Hou 35 29.5 .253 11.3 2.99
6.63 Giannis A Mil 39 27.6 .259 7.6 2.30
6.54 Anthony Davis NOP 39 32.0 .293 5.0 2.78
6.40 Chris Paul Hou 32 26.1 .261 8.3 2.36
6.31 Nikola Mirotic NOP 37 22.8 .243 9.1 1.85
6.25 John Wall Was 38 27.4 .181 8.5 2.38
5.93 Clint Capela Hou 31 26.1 .283 5.5 2.30
5.83 Kevin Durant GSW 37 23.9 .218 5.9 2.47
5.73 Ben Simmons Phl 38 20.6 .202 7.3 2.15
xyz playoffs tm mpg PER WS/48 BPM e480
5.59 Jrue Holiday NOP 38 25.0 .197 5.3 1.94
5.56 Rudy Gobert Uta 36 21.0 .226 6.3 1.50
5.44 Al Horford Bos 36 22.4 .209 5.5 1.71
5.19 Khris Middleton Mil 39 23.0 .188 4.2 1.80
5.12 Thaddeus Young Ind 35 17.2 .195 7.0 1.07
5.11 Derrick Favors Uta 34 19.0 .210 5.7 1.23
4.92 Ricky Rubio Uta 35 19.3 .148 5.7 1.94
4.77 LaMarcus Aldridge SAS 35 24.7 .189 2.7 1.97
4.73 Draymond Green GSW 38 15.9 .150 6.0 1.40
4.46 Al-Farouq Aminu Por 33 21.2 .152 3.4 1.44
Next are Jaylen Brown (Bos) and Oladipo (Ind), whose ws/48 is below-avg (.089)
Missing are all Thunders -- Westbrook (.002 WS/48) and George (.090 and 0.3 BPM) are unloved by one or more.
Mirotic BPM is 3rd highest, much higher than A Davis, who is also below Holiday.
Biggest pickups and dropoffs from RS to PS, according to GameScore :
Code: Select all
GS+ Game Score tm RS PS
9.0 John Wall Was 15.7 24.7
6.7 Al-Farouq Aminu Por 8.0 14.7
6.5 Nikola Mirotic NOP 12.0 18.5
6.1 Jrue Holiday NOP 15.3 21.4
5.9 Jaylen Brown Bos 9.6 15.5
5.5 Ricky Rubio Uta 10.4 15.9
5.3 Terry Rozier Bos 9.0 14.3
5.1 Donovan Mitchell Uta 13.0 18.1
5.0 LeBron James Cle 24.0 29.0
4.9 Rajon Rondo NOP 9.5 14.4
GS- Game Score tm RS PS
10.8 Damian Lillard Por 20.6 9.8
10.4 Hassan Whiteside Mia 13.0 2.6
8.3 Karl-A Towns Min 19.1 10.8
6.4 Kevin Love Cle 14.4 8.0
6.1 Taj Gibson Min 10.8 4.7
5.9 R Westbrook OKC 20.8 14.9
5.5 Steven Adams OKC 13.7 8.2
5.4 Eric Bledsoe Mil 14.0 8.6
5.2 Jimmy Butler Min 19.2 14.0
5.1 Eric Gordon Hou 11.1 6.0
There may be others. I just went off those with GS>10.0 in either RS or PS.
Re: 2018 Playoff summaries and notes.
Posted: Thu Apr 26, 2018 5:37 am
by Crow
My general rules of thumb are that WS/48 overrated good shooters, BPM / VORP high role / high volume passers and versatile passer / rebounders and over punishes cases where one or both I'd not in their talent or role. PER overvalues usage. EWins like the others doesn't get at individual shot defense. All these metrics will underrate superior on team shot defenders, if they exist and they do.
On my phone the format breaks making it hard to read and near endless scrolling is also a deterrent but let's see what else I can say.
LBJ is outplaying Harden. Capela should be a lock for the max. Embid nowhere to be seen here, in part because of efg%. Simmons though.
Oh, and Warriors and Cavs shot distributions suck. Warriors ok on efg% but very rare that a team ranked 5th would win title. Cavs 10th. Rockets also below average, very unlikely to win title unless this changes.
Re: 2018 Playoff summaries and notes.
Posted: Thu Apr 26, 2018 3:59 pm
by Mike G
Crow wrote:My general rules of thumb are that WS/48 overrated good shooters,...
Really it's players who don't miss shots nor get turnovers, even if they never shoot or move the ball.
All these metrics will underrate superior on team shot defenders, if they exist and they do.
Right. Not much one can do with boxscore stats, other than figure the good defenders get more minutes than they otherwise would, and at least have a chance to pick up some counted stats.
In general, the worst correlation with minutes is from WS/48; eWins tends to be closest (or BPM), so I feel pretty good about that.
Embid nowhere to be seen here, in part because of efg%. Simmons though.
He has only played 91 minutes, so missed the cutoff for previous post. The summary stats have wide interpretation of the Sixers:
Code: Select all
Phl PER WS/48 BPM e480
Simmons 20.6 .202 7.3 2.15
Redick 18.5 .227 2.0 1.32
Belinelli 16.7 .209 3.0 1.10
Covington 10.8 .117 2.8 .82
Saric 16.0 .145 3.2 1.51
Ilyasova 13.7 .126 1.0 1.05
Embiid 16.6 .092 1.0 1.90
Amir 17.0 .193 4.4 .87
McConnell 13.9 .154 1.4 .65
Anderson 4.5 .025 -9.5 -.14
Fultz 5.5 .024 -4.0 .27
I have Embiid as near his all-star self -- huge Blk, Reb, Usg rates, good TS%. The others say he's
meh.
On my phone the format breaks making it hard to read and near endless scrolling...
That's a drag. I try to keep things compact and concise without having to jettison good stuff. A tiny screen would kill me. Used laptop is pretty cheap.
Re: 2018 Playoff summaries and notes.
Posted: Thu Apr 26, 2018 4:04 pm
by Crow
My home laptop died. Haven't replaced yet.
Re: 2018 Playoff summaries and notes.
Posted: Mon Apr 30, 2018 11:33 am
by Mike G
Data dump of
advanced stats from round 1 winning teams:
Code: Select all
tm . first round Min PER WS/48 BPM
Bos Terry Rozier 252 20.0 .187 5.1
Bos Al Horford 245 22.5 .201 6.0
Bos Jaylen Brown 244 14.9 .094 .1
Bos Jayson Tatum 233 15.9 .103 1.2
Bos Marcus Morris 193 9.5 .007 -6.8
Bos Semi Ojeleye 127 2.3 .006 -5.4
Bos Aron Baynes 122 18.5 .191 3.7
Bos Shane Larkin 110 11.4 .101 -2.4
Bos Marcus Smart 83 6.0 -.064 -3.2
Bos Greg Monroe 59 14.5 -.016 -6.1
Bos Guerschon Yabusele 24 7.6 .044 1.6
Bos Abdel Nader 14 21.7 .187 5.8
tm . first round Min PER WS/48 BPM
Cle LeBron James 288 35.8 .346 16.9
Cle J.R. Smith 230 4.3 -.039 -4.5
Cle Kevin Love 229 9.5 -.004 -6.0
Cle Kyle Korver 161 11.4 .083 -1.2
Cle Jeff Green 146 8.5 .033 -3.4
Cle Larry Nance 137 14.2 .123 .2
Cle Rodney Hood 132 6.8 -.013 -6.9
Cle Jordan Clarkson 127 3.1 -.086 -9.3
Cle George Hill 81 16.0 .140 -1.3
Cle Jose Calderon 76 1.8 -.059 -5.5
Cle Tristan Thompson 58 16.4 .128 -1.0
Cle Cedi Osman 10 -6.9 -.255 -15.5
Cle Ante Zizic 4 8.3 -.175 -12.1
tm . first round Min PER WS/48 BPM
GSW Klay Thompson 196 17.3 .163 1.7
GSW Draymond Green 188 15.9 .150 5.9
GSW Kevin Durant 186 24.0 .218 5.8
GSW Andre Iguodala 135 12.3 .141 2.5
GSW Kevon Looney 100 10.2 .104 1.9
GSW Shaun Livingston 97 16.4 .149 -.4
GSW Quinn Cook 87 10.2 .106 -.9
GSW JaVale McGee 82 23.8 .260 5.7
GSW David West 80 20.6 .258 7.4
GSW Nick Young 30 -.8 -.025 -6.6
GSW Jordan Bell 11 8.6 .079 -4.1
GSW Damian Jones 8 -12.8 -.379 -21.2
tm . first round Min PER WS/48 BPM
Hou James Harden 179 29.0 .246 10.9
Hou Trevor Ariza 173 10.2 .093 1.2
Hou Chris Paul 162 23.4 .217 6.2
Hou Clint Capela 155 29.4 .323 6.4
Hou Eric Gordon 154 10.6 .043 -1.9
Hou P.J. Tucker 134 5.6 .037 -1.1
Hou Gerald Green 92 12.7 .103 -3.7
Hou Nene Hilario 59 12.7 .140 .5
Hou Ryan Anderson 46 15.3 .158 3.8
Hou Joe Johnson 25 7.0 .034 -3.0
Hou Aaron Jackson 8 -5.2 -.200 -10.3
Hou Zhou Qi 6 16.3 .184 -2.9
Hou Tarik Black 5 11.6 .166 -.6
Hou Chinanu Onuaku 3 38.4 .615 29.4
tm . first round Min PER WS/48 BPM
NOP Anthony Davis 155 32.0 .292 5.0
NOP Jrue Holiday 150 25.1 .197 5.3
NOP Nikola Mirotic 149 22.8 .243 9.1
NOP Rajon Rondo 141 17.5 .154 1.8
NOP E'Twaun Moore 114 8.6 .058 .4
NOP Ian Clark 80 6.6 .023 -.9
NOP Darius Miller 75 8.5 .083 1.4
NOP Solomon Hill 58 9.7 .142 1.8
NOP Cheick Diallo 21 .7 -.053 -7.7
NOP Jordan Crawford 7 .6 -.457 -19.2
NOP DeAndre Liggins 6 -2.9 -.140 -11.3
NOP Emeka Okafor 4 -14.4 -.271 -13.6
tm . first round Min PER WS/48 BPM
Phl Ben Simmons 188 20.7 .202 7.3
Phl J.J. Redick 160 18.5 .227 2.0
Phl Marco Belinelli 154 16.8 .209 3.0
Phl Robert Covington 149 10.9 .117 2.8
Phl Dario Saric 149 16.1 .146 3.2
Phl Ersan Ilyasova 135 13.7 .126 1.0
Phl Joel Embiid 91 16.7 .092 1.0
Phl Amir Johnson 77 17.1 .193 4.4
Phl T.J. McConnell 41 13.9 .154 1.4
Phl Justin Anderson 24 4.5 .024 -9.5
Phl Markelle Fultz 23 5.6 .024 -4.0
Phl Richaun Holmes 9 -.3 .102 -2.2
Phl Furkan Korkmaz 2 54.9 .362 24.0
tm . first round Min PER WS/48 BPM
Tor DeMar DeRozan 218 18.5 .080 -2.8
Tor Kyle Lowry 217 18.9 .162 4.8
Tor Serge Ibaka 172 10.5 .047 -1.5
Tor Delon Wright 149 19.5 .158 5.5
Tor Jonas Valanciunas 148 23.4 .189 1.8
Tor OG Anunoby 131 15.2 .167 4.3
Tor C.J. Miles 128 12.2 .094 .3
Tor Jakob Poeltl 96 15.8 .151 2.3
Tor Pascal Siakam 96 17.1 .166 2.1
Tor Norman Powell 24 -2.5 -.128 -12.8
Tor Fred VanVleet 22 1.0 -.153 -8.1
Tor Lucas Nogueira 20 -7.8 -.160 -9.3
Tor Lorenzo Brown 19 3.3 -.089 -6.4
tm . first round Min PER WS/48 BPM
Uta Donovan Mitchell 232 20.8 .149 2.2
Uta Rudy Gobert 213 20.2 .209 5.5
Uta Joe Ingles 212 12.4 .131 2.5
Uta Derrick Favors 197 17.3 .178 4.2
Uta Ricky Rubio 181 15.9 .097 3.6
Uta Jae Crowder 165 8.5 .049 .5
Uta Royce O'Neale 108 10.3 .124 3.4
Uta Dante Exum 56 4.0 -.085 -7.8
Uta Jonas Jerebko 38 6.8 .021 -3.8
Uta Alec Burks 22 34.6 .273 6.8
Uta Ekpe Udoh 10 4.2 -.049 -3.3
Uta Raul Neto 5 1.4 .090 -9.4
Uta David Stockton 1 .0 .022 -3.0
From these and later b-r.com summaries, one can extract rates for round 2, etc.
LeBron has 2.08 WS and the rest of his team 0.49
That's .30 per game for him; for perspective, the Blazers totaled .21 WS per game, Spurs .20 ...
For players w >10 mpg, correlations with mpg:
.63 - eW/484
.55 - PER
.51 - BPM
.42 - WS/48
Re: 2018 Playoff summaries and notes.
Posted: Mon Apr 30, 2018 12:06 pm
by Mike G
First round eWins-per-game leaders. Per team game, that is.
Code: Select all
eW/G per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.308 LeBron James Cle 41 .639 35.0 10.2 6.6 1.3 3.4 .9 3.59
.224 Anthony Davis NOP 39 .629 33.2 11.4 1.0 1.7 2.4 2.6 2.78
.215 James Harden Hou 36 .553 31.0 4.9 6.8 2.5 3.0 1.3 2.89
.201 Victor Oladipo Ind 37 .539 24.2 9.2 7.1 2.4 3.7 .4 2.59
.191 Kevin Durant GSW 37 .595 32.3 8.8 4.8 .6 3.6 .8 2.47
.190 Giannis A Mil 40 .606 25.5 9.2 5.3 1.3 2.3 .8 2.28
.182 R Westbrook OKC 39 .486 26.4 10.6 6.5 1.4 4.9 .0 2.23
.178 Clint Capela Hou 31 .648 21.4 16.9 1.5 .2 .5 2.4 2.75
.169 Ben Simmons Phl 38 .545 15.9 10.5 8.3 2.4 4.2 .6 2.15
.168 John Wall Was 39 .518 22.1 5.8 11.1 2.2 4.6 1.2 2.07
eW/G per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.161 Donovan Mitchell Uta 39 .550 28.3 6.7 2.6 1.4 2.6 .6 2.00
.152 Jrue Holiday NOP 38 .620 28.9 3.9 5.7 1.2 3.3 .5 1.94
.146 L Aldridge SAS 35 .584 26.6 9.9 2.2 .6 2.0 .4 1.97
.143 Nikola Mirotic NOP 37 .702 20.3 9.4 1.3 1.7 .5 2.4 1.85
.143 Khris Middleton Mil 39 .712 27.6 5.0 2.7 .8 2.2 .6 1.74
.138 Chris Paul Hou 32 .572 23.0 4.6 6.7 2.3 2.2 .2 2.04
.134 Al Horford Bos 35 .655 22.2 10.5 3.2 .8 2.8 1.4 1.84
.118 Kyle Lowry Tor 36 .606 18.5 5.4 9.1 2.0 3.1 .0 1.56
.116 Terry Rozier Bos 36 .564 18.8 5.0 6.4 1.2 1.7 .5 1.55
.114 DeMar DeRozan Tor 36 .519 25.3 3.7 5.5 .3 2.6 .2 1.51
eW/G per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.110 Draymond Green GSW 38 .460 10.6 11.3 7.4 1.4 2.6 .9 1.40
.108 Ricky Rubio Uta 30 .464 16.2 8.9 8.7 1.6 3.9 .6 1.73
.108 Rudy Gobert Uta 36 .622 16.7 11.5 1.4 1.2 2.4 2.1 1.47
.106 Klay Thompson GSW 39 .631 24.9 2.9 2.5 .4 1.5 .2 1.30
.104 J Valanciunas Tor 25 .628 22.0 15.6 1.6 1.0 2.6 1.9 2.03
.104 Rajon Rondo NOP 35 .542 11.3 7.8 12.4 .8 3.8 .3 1.41
.100 Karl-A Towns Min 34 .531 15.0 14.5 1.8 .4 2.7 1.1 1.42
.099 Al-Farouq Aminu Por 33 .651 20.1 10.2 1.1 1.1 1.7 .6 1.44
.098 Paul George OKC 42 .536 22.1 4.9 2.1 1.2 3.6 .6 1.12
.094 Dario Saric Phl 30 .512 17.4 8.6 4.0 1.0 2.7 .2 1.51
Re: 2018 Playoff summaries and notes.
Posted: Tue May 01, 2018 11:00 am
by Mike G
Terry Rozier has more big playoff games this year than Eric Bledsoe has in his career:
Code: Select all
Terry Rozier
GmSc date
28.1 18-04-30
26.2 18-04-28
23.8 18-04-17
16.7 18-04-15
13.1 18-04-24
Eric Bledsoe
GmSc date
21.4 12-05-15
16.8 12-05-20
16.1 13-04-20
15.9 18-04-28
14.0 18-04-20
Re: 2018 Playoff summaries and notes.
Posted: Thu May 03, 2018 12:02 am
by Mike G
Players who have averaged at least 29 points, 9 rebounds, and 7 assists in a postseason of at least 8 games:
Code: Select all
29-9-7 yr Pts Reb Ast
Oscar 63 31.8 13.0 9.0
LeBron 09 35.3 9.1 7.3
LeBron 10 29.1 9.3 7.6
LeBron 15 30.1 11.3 8.5
LeBron 17 32.8 9.1 7.8
LeBron *18 33.4 10.1 8.4
Kevin Love has the 9th-worst playoff BPM (-6.5) of any All-Star in the 3-point era.
Damian Lillard (-4.7) was 19th worst.
In WS/48, Lillard is 13th from the bottom (-.062) and Love is 30th (-.027)
Worst PER turns up the same suspects: Dame at 9.5 ranks 19th worst, Love at 8.0 is 11th
Worst in the era:
PER -- Anthony Mason 2001 : 3.0
WS/48 -- Brandon Roy 2010 : -.124
BPM -- Andre Drummond 2016 : -10.1
-- all in short series.
Playoff teams ranked by ORtg-minus-DRtg:
Code: Select all
Tm O-D pW% W L
GSW 10.4 .80 6 1
Hou 10.2 .78 5 1
Phl 6.4 .70 4 2
Ind 6.3 .70 3 4
Bos 2.6 .59 5 3
Uta 1.8 .56 4 3
Tor 1.6 .56 4 3
NOP 1.5 .55 4 2
Mil -0.6 .49 3 4
Was -2.0 .43 2 4
OKC -4.4 .35 2 4
Cle -5.4 .34 5 3
Por -9.1 .25 0 4
Min -9.2 .24 1 4
SAS -9.4 .22 1 4
Mia -10.7 .20 1 4
Pythagorean Win% are very approximate. Only one
winning team ranks low, while one losing team ranks highly.
Re: 2018 Playoff summaries and notes.
Posted: Mon May 07, 2018 10:10 am
by Mike G
Round 2 leaders thru 3 games:
Code: Select all
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
.85 LeBron James Cle 43 .554 28.5 7.8 8.2 1.4 2.0 .9 3.28
.76 James Harden Hou 34 .609 40.3 6.6 10.3 1.8 2.4 .4 3.56
.65 Terry Rozier Bos 39 .657 24.5 7.5 6.6 1.6 .6 .6 2.74
.48 Anthony Davis NO 39 .537 22.5 11.8 2.2 2.8 1.3 1.5 1.96
.47 Joel Embiid Phl 38 .477 20.4 14.4 3.9 1.0 2.8 .7 2.08
.44 Al Horford Bos 37 .675 20.4 8.9 4.2 1.0 1.6 1.0 1.94
.43 Kevin Love Cle 36 .527 17.9 15.5 1.7 .7 1.6 .7 1.99
.42 Draymond Green GS 36 .662 17.3 11.3 10.5 1.4 3.9 1.3 1.89
.40 Clint Capela Hou 32 .600 20.5 12.0 2.6 1.5 1.7 2.7 1.99
.40 J Valanciunas Tor 27 .553 18.6 22.7 1.5 .0 3.7 1.7 2.44
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
.38 Kevin Durant GS 36 .550 24.6 6.8 4.1 1.4 2.4 1.6 1.69
.38 Kyle Lowry Tor 38 .786 24.2 3.7 6.6 1.0 4.3 .0 1.65
.34 Jayson Tatum Bos 38 .629 26.5 3.5 2.9 .6 3.2 .6 1.49
.31 Rajon Rondo NO 36 .455 10.0 7.7 13.7 2.4 4.6 .3 1.36
.30 Chris Paul Hou 33 .505 20.8 6.1 5.7 3.0 3.8 .0 1.49
.25 Jrue Holiday NO 38 .509 16.1 5.3 5.0 1.0 1.3 1.0 1.08
.25 Rudy Gobert Uta 35 .717 15.8 11.5 .9 .4 1.8 1.8 1.15
.23 J.J. Redick Phl 37 .616 20.8 2.5 2.1 1.0 1.4 .0 1.02
.22 Stephen Curry GS 19 .595 29.9 7.5 2.5 4.4 5.8 1.2 1.87
.19 Jeff Green Cle 26 .672 18.4 2.4 2.1 .8 .5 1.8 1.20
Re: 2018 Playoff summaries and notes.
Posted: Tue May 08, 2018 10:52 pm
by Mike G
In round 2 vs Toronto, LeBron James totaled 136 pts, 33 Reb, and 46 Ast. It's the 4th time he's gotten at least those numbers in a 2nd round series, and it's the 30th time anyone has done it in the last 35 postseasons (since 1984).
http://bkref.com/tiny/d9Qwm
Bird and Westbrook are in there 3 times; Harden, Iverson, and KJ are two-timers.
LeBron is the only one to hit these totals in a 4-game series; Magic did it in 5, the rest in 6 or 7.
LeBron had just 8 turnovers in the series. The other 29 range from 16 (Chris Paul '08) to 37 (LeBron in '08).
Most minutes (still 2nd-round) without a turnover:
Code: Select all
min zero TO yr tm
169 Bowen 04 SAS
152 Kawhi 14 SAS
128 Tucker 18 Hou
128 M Williams 10 Cha
126 Ariza 18 Hou
126 JR Smith 18 Cle
Tristan Thompson (69 min) also makes the top 20 list of most TO-free minutes in a 2nd round series.
Jeff Green had 1 TO in 95 min. The Cavs totaled just 28 in 4 games, the fewest any team has had in a 2nd round, since 1984. (The '08 Pistons had just 36 in 5 games.)
http://bkref.com/tiny/6K9nm
Houston has 42 thru 4 games, which would rank 8th among 4-game series.
In the season, the Cavs averaged 13.7 TO, while Toronto forced 14.3 per game, which was league avg. So why couldn't they get the ball away from the Cavs but 7 times per game?
Re: 2018 Playoff summaries and notes.
Posted: Thu May 10, 2018 12:43 pm
by Mike G
eWins leaders thru 2 rounds:
Code: Select all
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
3.26 LeBron James Cle 41 .612 32.9 9.5 7.6 1.4 2.9 .9 3.47
1.99 James Harden Hou 35 .545 31.1 5.3 7.3 2.4 3.5 .7 2.72
1.82 Kevin Durant GSW 37 .586 30.3 7.8 4.3 1.0 2.9 1.0 2.39
1.72 Anthony Davis NOP 40 .574 26.9 11.6 1.2 1.8 2.4 2.2 2.33
1.63 Chris Paul Hou 33 .581 26.5 6.2 6.7 2.3 2.3 .2 2.37
1.56 Clint Capela Hou 32 .621 18.7 14.2 1.8 1.2 .7 3.3 2.35
1.54 Al Horford Bos 36 .642 19.8 9.9 3.5 1.2 2.5 1.3 1.74
1.49 Terry Rozier Bos 37 .571 18.6 6.0 5.7 1.2 1.4 .5 1.61
1.41 Victor Oladipo Ind 37 .539 24.2 9.2 7.1 2.4 3.7 .4 2.59
1.33 Giannis A Mil 40 .606 25.5 9.2 5.3 1.3 2.3 .8 2.28
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
1.31 D Mitchell Uta 37 .507 23.2 5.8 3.9 1.4 3.0 .4 1.55
1.27 Draymond Green GSW 37 .526 13.0 11.0 7.6 1.9 3.1 1.3 1.64
1.17 Ben Simmons Phl 37 .529 14.8 9.2 7.4 1.7 4.7 .8 1.54
1.12 J Valanciunas Tor 24 .589 21.6 17.9 1.7 .6 2.9 2.2 2.23
1.12 Jayson Tatum Bos 35 .555 20.2 5.3 3.3 1.2 2.4 .6 1.28
1.10 Joel Embiid Phl 28 .507 20.3 12.9 3.2 .9 4.2 2.0 1.93
1.09 Kyle Lowry Tor 36 .649 18.8 4.9 8.4 1.5 3.2 .0 1.46
1.09 R Westbrook OKC 39 .486 26.4 10.6 6.5 1.4 4.9 .0 2.23
1.08 Rudy Gobert Uta 35 .642 15.8 11.4 1.0 1.0 2.1 2.4 1.37
1.06 Jrue Holiday NOP 39 .576 22.0 5.0 4.7 1.1 2.5 .5 1.47
Re: 2018 Playoff summaries and notes.
Posted: Sat May 12, 2018 6:56 pm
by Mike G
Round 2 series team totals for summary stats:
Code: Select all
tm PER WS/48 BPM e484
Bos 15.0 .120 2.2 1.10
Phl 14.0 .086 -.2 .91
Cle 19.6 .183 5.5 1.32
Tor 14.6 .024 -2.5 .66
Hou 16.9 .168 3.6 1.16
Uta 12.4 .043 .6 .72
GSW 15.9 .144 2.2 1.23
NOP 12.8 .048 -.4 .76
avg 15.2 .102 1.4 .98
BPM adjusts for quality of opponent; WS and eWins displays avg for the series; PER just favors offenses.
A preview of conference finals, playoff rates thru 2 rounds, with xyz = avg of the other 4 after converting to win rates, in which avg = 1.00
Code: Select all
xyz Celtics mpg e484 PER WS/48 BPM
1.64 Terry Rozier 37 1.61 19.5 .184 5.7
1.77 Al Horford 36 1.74 21.4 .195 6.1
1.17 Jayson Tatum 35 1.28 17.2 .119 1.3
1.06 Jaylen Brown 32 1.14 15.9 .107 1.0
0.52 Marcus Smart 31 .65 10.3 .014 .2
0.25 Marcus Morris 29 .56 8.8 .011 -5.3
1.30 Aron Baynes 20 1.11 16.2 .180 2.6
-.11 Semi Ojeleye 15 -.51 2.7 .024 -4.1
0.49 Shane Larkin 14 .16 10.1 .088 -2.3
0.39 Greg Monroe 10 .84 14.5 -.008 -6.1
xyz Cavs mpg e484 PER WS/48 BPM
3.31 LeBron James 41 3.47 35.4 .337 16.2
0.77 Kevin Love 33 1.24 14.0 .065 -3.1
0.59 J.R. Smith 32 .30 10.1 .068 .8
0.77 George Hill 26 .54 13.3 .114 -1.2
1.06 Kyle Korver 26 .80 14.6 .137 2.3
0.84 Jeff Green 22 .56 13.7 .108 .5
-.26 Rodney Hood 17 -.23 4.2 -.049 -6.3
-.52 Jordan Clarkson 17 -.25 3.0 -.110 -8.2
1.18 Larry Nance 16 .75 17.0 .160 2.5
1.26 Tristan Thompson 16 .68 18.2 .198 1.8
-.19 Jose Calderon 14 -.43 3.0 -.028 -3.6
xyz Dubs mpg e480 PER WS/48 BPM
0.86 Klay Thompson 38 1.06 13.3 .097 -1.1
1.69 Draymond Green 37 1.64 18.7 .183 7.5
2.01 Kevin Durant 37 2.39 23.6 .206 5.9
1.87 Stephen Curry 31 2.10 23.7 .186 5.5
1.15 Andre Iguodala 28 .86 13.5 .159 3.6
0.91 Kevon Looney 21 .39 11.4 .151 2.3
0.61 Shaun Livingston 18 .55 11.6 .098 -3.3
0.56 Quinn Cook 16 .50 10.4 .086 -2.8
1.68 JaVale McGee 13 1.83 20.5 .217 2.3
1.82 David West 12 1.47 21.0 .244 6.3
-.22 Nick Young 8 -.43 1.7 .003 -5.5
1.10 Jordan Bell 5 .74 14.1 .157 2.6
xyz Rockets mpg e480 PER WS/48 BPM
2.38 James Harden 35 2.72 27.3 .229 9.4
2.23 Chris Paul 33 2.37 25.3 .243 8.2
0.56 Trevor Ariza 32 .26 8.5 .088 .2
2.39 Clint Capela 32 2.35 26.8 .296 8.0
0.45 Eric Gordon 31 .35 10.0 .053 -2.2
0.98 P.J. Tucker 30 .65 12.0 .147 2.4
0.17 Luc Mbah a Moute 19 .04 6.3 .018 -2.5
0.76 Gerald Green 15 .74 13.0 .119 -3.0
0.77 Nene Hilario 10 .46 12.2 .121 -.6
0.82 Ryan Anderson 11 .39 11.6 .128 1.3
-.09 Joe Johnson 7 -.23 4.8 .008 -5.9
RAPM would be nice to add to this mix.
Players are ranked by mpg, which is minutes per game that the player was in. It doesn't distinguish between the Currys who are unavailable for some games, and the Calderons who get benched.
Here are correlations to mpg for the various summary stats, separated into 1st round losers, 2nd round losers and winners.
Code: Select all
xyz 3rd e484 PER WS/48 BPM
.68 Cle .79 .66 .56 .64
.66 Bos .83 .72 .35 .62
.55 Hou .58 .52 .44 .62
.24 GSW .37 .22 -.10 .33
.53 avg .64 .53 .31 .55
xyz 2nd e484 PER WS/48 BPM
.87 NOP .86 .87 .77 .86
.29 Uta .33 .12 .19 .47
.18 Tor .45 .27 -.16 -.07
.14 Phl .62 .10 -.48 .03
.37 avg .56 .34 .08 .32
xyz 1st e484 PER WS/48 BPM
.81 Mil .85 .85 .73 .68
.79 Was .85 .77 .64 .81
.65 Min .78 .67 .42 .36
.64 Mia .72 .67 .34 .65
.64 OKC .75 .75 .02 .33
.38 Ind .60 .27 -.31 .66
.25 Por .35 .34 .04 .26
.22 SAS .38 .29 .10 .05
.55 avg .66 .58 .25 .47
This only considered the top 9 players for each team: All played at least 10 mpg.
Re: 2018 Playoff summaries and notes.
Posted: Sun May 13, 2018 9:04 am
by Mike G
Through 2 rounds, Trevor Ariza (Hou) has played 323 minutes with only 2 turnovers. Next most minutes with
3 or fewer is TR Dunn 1986 (Den), 276 min., since 1984.
Another 8 TO-free minutes and he'll pass John Paxson '93 for most minutes with
4 or fewer TO.
Teammate PJ Tucker ranks 5th with 4 TO in 298 min.
Marco Bellinelli (Phl) had 4 in 273 min, ranking 7th. Jeff Green (Cle) ranks 15th.
http://bkref.com/tiny/hNzcl