The discussion of the analysis of basketball through objective evidence, especially basketball statistics.
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 13, 2018 3:49 pm 

Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm
Posts: 5231
Matchup matters. I did the overall sweep. Ideally you look at everything with time (and interest or responsibility?). Some the data may be very mixed but the average results still indicate worth knowing and studying further lean or in some cases avalanches. The numbers are affected by matchup and small sample size but relative performance really matters. You have to interpret but better to chew on it than basically shrug and walk away from it with little or no learning or change. For some of these teams it seems like they may have said "bad matchup" or "not our week or day" and decided to change little or nothing. I included a check of regular season to broaden the perspective. I didn't call for lockstep change for every trend. I did try to draw some attention to sublineup data. Can anyone point to a SINGLE article on just past playoff sublineup data analysis in the mainstream press or the analytic subworld? I am not aware of any. There is so little discussion of lineup and sublineup data that I wanted to at least make a brief survey on the pair data. I'd probably look further at specifics of certain cases or series where interest was high enough.

Sublineup data analysis allows you to look under the level of specific lineups and matchups and consider specific relationships. Coaches and GMs do this or should do this but it may be more likely they do it freestyle with eye test and memory and not aggregation of everything and with use of multiple perspectives. I'll often work 2,3,4 and 5 lineup together to identify what to think about in more detail tha I did here. Better to do something with some rigor than nothing or only impressionistic. Yeah, you could overdo it or be too simplistic or definitive about but in a world that seems to be not doing it or underdoing it, I feel alright looking into it to the extent I do. I can do a lot more before I worried too much about overdoing it. This response is overdone, but not the analysis (for what it is and fwiw).

PostPosted: Wed Jul 18, 2018 3:27 pm 

Joined: Sun Sep 10, 2017 8:20 pm
Posts: 37
Well, if Kawhi plays I absolutely love this deal for Toronto. If he doesn't it's still not horrendous imo.

Will be interesting to see how the Kawhi thing winds up playing out, could lead to a very wide range of outcomes for Toronto, tough to predict.

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