2018-19 season commentary

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Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Fri Jul 13, 2018 3:49 pm

Matchup matters. I did the overall sweep. Ideally you look at everything with time (and interest or responsibility?). Some the data may be very mixed but the average results still indicate worth knowing and studying further lean or in some cases avalanches. The numbers are affected by matchup and small sample size but relative performance really matters. You have to interpret but better to chew on it than basically shrug and walk away from it with little or no learning or change. For some of these teams it seems like they may have said "bad matchup" or "not our week or day" and decided to change little or nothing. I included a check of regular season to broaden the perspective. I didn't call for lockstep change for every trend. I did try to draw some attention to sublineup data. Can anyone point to a SINGLE article on just past playoff sublineup data analysis in the mainstream press or the analytic subworld? I am not aware of any. There is so little discussion of lineup and sublineup data that I wanted to at least make a brief survey on the pair data. I'd probably look further at specifics of certain cases or series where interest was high enough.

Sublineup data analysis allows you to look under the level of specific lineups and matchups and consider specific relationships. Coaches and GMs do this or should do this but it may be more likely they do it freestyle with eye test and memory and not aggregation of everything and with use of multiple perspectives. I'll often work 2,3,4 and 5 lineup together to identify what to think about in more detail tha I did here. Better to do something with some rigor than nothing or only impressionistic. Yeah, you could overdo it or be too simplistic or definitive about but in a world that seems to be not doing it or underdoing it, I feel alright looking into it to the extent I do. I can do a lot more before I worried too much about overdoing it. This response is overdone, but not the analysis (for what it is and fwiw).

eminence
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by eminence » Wed Jul 18, 2018 3:27 pm

Well, if Kawhi plays I absolutely love this deal for Toronto. If he doesn't it's still not horrendous imo.

Will be interesting to see how the Kawhi thing winds up playing out, could lead to a very wide range of outcomes for Toronto, tough to predict.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Fri Jul 27, 2018 9:00 pm

I assume Kawhi will play at least some. He might shut down again, but there would probably be further damage to his reputation and future financial consequences.

I think it was possible he could build this brand if he made the effort and his team was sharp but it is probably too late for it be first tier.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Fri Jul 27, 2018 9:03 pm

Thunder and Knicks currently have 9 guys listed as guards on Rotoworld depth charts. It is still summer, there could be misreports and some might be swings or SFs but 9 is high and may be a clue of aggressive small ball coming.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Sat Aug 04, 2018 8:14 pm

Matchup data from earlier seasons suggests Griz might want to play Kyle Anderson at SG.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Sun Aug 05, 2018 1:23 pm

Porzingis, extend, trade, match? I dunno his health details. I'd probably be more willing to consider a trade than most, than the Knicks front office. RPM estimate from last season said no impact on offense, nice on defense. With his knee, I think the defensive impact could stall or diminish. He isn't that much of a rebounder. His offensive impact might increase if he passes better / more. However, he has shown no growth on assists, which are very low. The 3 pointer is nice, if last season's % was sustainable. But he isn't dominant inside on offense, so I am not sure I want to have him be the focus of the offense. I wouldn't do the early extension at full price. I definitely want to see how he comes back before deciding anything.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Wed Aug 08, 2018 3:40 am

Paul George didn't go the Lakers. Why? It could as simple as liking organization, contention chances and Westbrook.

But it could be Lakers preferred LeBron, didn't want both. Or maybe there was some deep level message from Commish that Magic screwed that option up and league wasn't going to accept that signing which was tainted with tampering. Or maybe LeBron was too aloof and George didn't feel like a wanted, valued partner. It is hard enough to see how the Lakers forward situation works now but with George it would have even more difficult. Health could have been a factor in Lakers passing. Or they just prefer a summer of 2019 option more.

It doesn't seem that the "inevitable" ever really got a real start at legal mutual consideration. Maybe it was a simple case of liking his present. But I think there is probably more to it.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Wed Aug 08, 2018 3:53 am

A lot of free agents that changed teams were pretty close to neutral on RPM. That probably isn't news though perhaps it could be. Perhaps teams have realized that near neutral is often above median and a pretty good value. Especially this summer. Is it at all about the RPM values? I dunno. Probably not. But even if not, the idea of overall impact may have gained some further importance.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Wed Aug 08, 2018 3:57 am

All teams 25 wins or better? That is what I am seeing in some early projections. I think a few will go lower from injuries, analytic incompetence, real tough competition / bad luck and / or tanking. Not everyone is going to live up to talent level or regress up toward the mean.

Who do people think are the worst 5-10 teams on coaching and analytics?

Kings? Suns? Could it include Nuggets? Mavs? Easier for me to say Hawks. Probably Magic. Could still include Knicks. Bulls. Cavs? Griz and / or Hornets could make list. Right now they look like they have some chance to avoid it but lots of challenge ahead.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Wed Aug 08, 2018 4:12 am

First time all-stars? Got to drop guys first. I'd think 5 drops are possible. 5 adds would be generally deserved. Somebody will be slighted but will probably eventually get in.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Wed Aug 08, 2018 4:18 am

If Ed Stefansky eventually going to step back after building a culture? Haven't heard anything about that GM search in awhile. Will the best candidates decline to take the job after all the summer's work is done? They'd better like the set up if they take it.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Wed Aug 08, 2018 4:21 am

What result halfway thru season would be bad enough to be John Wall traded or Scotty Brooks fired? Grunfield skates ahead but will anyone pay a price for not moving forward enough?

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Wed Aug 08, 2018 4:23 am

Who would pay enough to get Kemba? Will Hornets wait too long and get less than they could if they moved earlier? MJ likes Kemba but does he like saved money more? Probably.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Wed Aug 08, 2018 4:26 am

Which lottery pick (and drafting team) are going to catch the most early heat for slow start / poor performance? Bagley / Kings, Young / Hawks seem most likely. Knox / Knicks will certainly have high visibility. Worst after a month may not be worst by end of season.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Sat Aug 11, 2018 4:05 am

Prediction: 5 months from now, Divac fires Joerger. Perhaps replaced by Bryan Gates on interim basis. Blame the coach. Sure, for part of it. Will Divac survive much longer? Probably not. Unless deadline trades or late season performance bring new hope. Has analytic staff done or will do anything impactful to save them? Probably not.

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