2018-19 season commentary

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eminence
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by eminence » Sat Aug 11, 2018 4:50 am

Their draft/player improvement has just been so bad for the last decade, not sure at what level that problem is at, but ~1.5 hits (Cousins and maybe Evans) in a decade+ of lotto picks is horrific. Maybe Fox/Bagley can turn the trend around, but I'm not very hopeful.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Sun Aug 19, 2018 2:05 am

By at least one measure, Rockets, Thunder, Pelicans, T Wolves and Bucks all had terrible performing benches last season. Did any really fix this issue? I'd guess no in all cases.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Sun Aug 19, 2018 2:56 am

All 8 most used Rockets lineups in last playoffs were cumulatively positive. Tough act to follow. Only the smallest two are still possible to put on court. They saw about 2.5 minutes per game combined then.

Changes. How significant an impact on future results? We'll see. May be lot of player and lineup changes between now and next playoffs. Work for the best. Every little bit is needed.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Sun Aug 19, 2018 11:51 pm

Spurs did play better against slow paced teams compared to fast paced teams at noted in a recent article but it was only 10 %pts better and only modestly above .500 (57% versus 47%). They probably will continue to do so, though they will not always dictate pace and it doesn't appear they will be making a lot of hay via this element.

Only won 35% against teams who were good shooters or good shot defenders.

Only 15th best record against top 10 opponents. And quite average against average teams too.

They may make the playoffs but it will be largely based on beating weak teams and there isn't a strong case for them winning in the playoffs.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Tue Aug 21, 2018 2:02 am

Kings have a lot of pieces. Most net negative. Ferrell and Bjelica are exceptions. Some others can do something good on defense. Few if any are above average on offense.

Fox was their worst player on RPM. Will still be featured, perhaps as their "star". He better have improved a ton. Still likely to be below or way below average and pull the team down. Not alone; but last season it was more than anyone else... on the court that is.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Tue Aug 21, 2018 2:42 am

Between 2016-7 and 2017-8, the Warriors' win % slipped about 10 %pts against good offensive opponents and about 20% against good defenses. Win % slipped 27% against teams with an above average performance on net fts. Slipped about 10% against good rebounding teams. The win%s were still good but not as great.

Teams which are above average on 3 or more of these might have a chance at beating them. Raptors and Sixers did 3 of these last season. Thunder, Bucks, Rockets, Pelicans, Jazz and Celtics 2. No one else did more than 1. Warriors could be beaten by a few teams if they get chance and perform as well or better on these things. Will still be tough / unlikely but not impossible.

Sixers just missed being top 10 on all 4 by 1 place on offense. Watch out. Of course regular season stat performance isn't everything. Playoff experience / consistency with regular season performance is still needed.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Thu Aug 23, 2018 12:23 am

It is not final rosters and the position assignment by Rotoworld may not be perfect (though I don't see obvious errors), but right now the Thunder and Heat have 4 PF / Cs and the Knicks and Magic have 8. Those are the low / high extremes in the league.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Thu Aug 23, 2018 3:41 am

I haven't studied all options but one lineup the Lakers should try for good minutes would be Ball KCP James Kuzma and a center (I don't know enough to pick which). I'd probably start it though I doubt the Lakers will leave Ingram out of it. Ball - Kuzma did better tha Ball-Ingram and same with KCP. The young returning trio I suggested was basically neutral. James lifts it. Hopefully center doesn't hurt much.

walker_harris3
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by walker_harris3 » Thu Aug 23, 2018 5:25 am

I think a Lonzo/KCP/Hart/LeBron/Center lineup would be a damn good lineup, but is nonetheless one I doubt we'll see. Lonzo/KCP as you mentioned was -0.1, then Lonzo/Hart was +3.0, although in only 225 minutes. KCP/Hart also +1.7 in 607 minutes. Luke Walton didn't even play a Lonzo/KCP/Hart trio ONCE last season. NOT ONE MINUTE. How?

Lonzo/KCP/Hart would seem to be the perfect trio for LeBron right? All 3 can play off the ball and KCP/Hart are LA's best 3 pt shooters + Ball is another ball handler/playmaker to alleviate that load off of LeBron. Do you think Kuzma would have a harder time playing alongside LeBron than Hart would?

Rodney Hood's % of shots that were 3s went from 47.5% in Utah to 35.7% in Cleveland, and his 3p% declined 3.7%, even as his % of 3s off assists increased from 70.6% to 84%. It wouldn't surprise me if Kuzma regressed similarly, especially during the beginning of the season when they are "figuring it all out."

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Thu Aug 23, 2018 5:56 pm

I'd be open to Hart over Kuzma in this lineup if LeBron is ok with playing PF a lot. I didn't look at it. Individual and team results with James at PF were worse than at SF (at least on raw plus-minus according to 82games). None of Hart's 10 most used lineups from last season are still possible, so it is starting over on how to use him.

Coaches often pick a rotation and leave good option untouched and analytic shops and management usually let them have their pattern. It is often ridiculous and rarely anywhere near optimal. But when almost everyone else is similar, it doesn't look quite as bad. Plenty of room to do better though.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Thu Aug 23, 2018 6:05 pm

Lineup minutes plan

First 1000 minutes of season (20 games):

200 - 300 plus minutes to starters and
300 - 400 minutes for 3-5 rotation lineups (the higher amount if you have / need a rival starting lineup to test). Around 600 total minutes.

Around 200 minutes for your main 10-20 situational variations.

And then around 200 minutes for the dink lineup playing that coaches can't live without. Less would be good but I don't expect it to be even this low.

This isn't completely rigid. But there would have to be good reason to vary from basic shape of the minutes distribution.

Then adjust as appropriate for mid-season run and end of season finalization. Increase minutes to the best / most necessary lineups. Further limit the low minute experimentation / randomness.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Tue Aug 28, 2018 5:12 pm

Jonathan Issac at SF? 82games match-up data says heck yes. Couldn't score at PF or defend them last season. At SF, nice on both at individual and team levels. Issac, Gordon, Vucevic was his best trio and only positive one. But only 100 minutes of testing last season. Not enough... testing or strategic thinking. Issac with Vucevic but not Gordon? Lousy. Issac with Gordon but not Vucevic? Negative too but a bit less so.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Wed Aug 29, 2018 5:21 pm

Atkinson gets / gives an interview to The Athletic. May invoke some more sympathy & support. He has already had imo great / sympathetic press. But... in 2 seasons the Nets are only modestly better and still quite bad. Underperformed expected wins by 3 -4 wins each season. Time to achieve more.

Shot distribution became much more Moreyball in 2016-17 but then shots at rim reverted sharply back to below average last season. 3pt and fta are still good but efg% is short of average and not enough to do anything. Offensive efficiency is still well below average ad probably won't reach average this season. Defensive efficiency hasn't broken out of bottom 10 and showed almost no improvement overall last season.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Mon Sep 03, 2018 2:42 am

I put together a first draft complete rotation for the Hawks with pretty reasonable minute allocation to 10 guys with just 5 lineups. If I added 10 more lineups, I'd feel pretty well equipped. 50 lineups, I'd feel pretty able to get thru a season, unless there are major injuries, trades or issues not easily solved. Would I want or need the typical 400-600 lineups? I doubt it.

First draft rotation for Mavs only took 4 lineups. Again 15-50 lineups would seem like enough for most situations. 50 is enough for every variation of top 2 guys across 5 positions plus 18 more lineups for up-position shifts and the occasional third stringer appearance. To go for all combinations 3 deep would amount to 243 lineups. To get to 400-600 lineups, you have to go 4 deep at least 1-2 positions.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Tue Sep 11, 2018 2:10 am

Rotoworld depth charts have about a hundred more guys than final available roster spots and I don't think 2way guys are on this chart generally. About 100 more guys are coming to camp and few of them will bump the incumbents. All told almost 200 guys will miss out. Some players may get picked up off waivers but not many. Some teams will hold up spots for awhile instead of an immediate fill. Teams hoping for a multiple for less players trade deal with find it hard to complete. As usual.

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