2018-19 season commentary

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Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Mon Nov 05, 2018 3:21 am

Heat have a strong starting lineup. Like some other teams they are flat out not playing it enough.

It is the same broader story seen elsewhere too. 8 lineups used over 1.5 minutes per game for season performing on average at plus 9 per 48 minutes. 88 dinky lineups performing at minus 11 but getting about 40% of the total minutes. There are limits of top player time but they could play the right combination of their bigger minute / better lineups and probably do better overall. Every situation has different challenges & details but this opportunity to concentrate more and deliver better appears to commonly exist.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Mon Nov 05, 2018 3:55 am

The Hornets are an interesting case of some good patterns but potential to do even better.

The starters are being used pretty heavily relative to other teams too limited use. It is performing at over plus 10 per 48 minutes. A complete bench player unit is second highest in minutes and has done almost 3 times as well as starters. You might be able to have these 2 strong lineups be almost the shop rotation, except for missed games and play lapses.

But no. Borrego misses out on a lot more impact of the good he has created / found by deciding he wants to give 64% of total minutes to 123 other lineups. Fortunately they are a decent plus 4 per 48 on average, though 66% of these lineups are cumulatively separately. But he could have a lot more of the plus 10 starters and the plus 27 all bench unit. Or even more of the better dink lineups. So much potential to do better here.

Crow
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Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Mon Nov 05, 2018 4:56 am

Pistons: Very bad offense, average defense. Offense on other 3 factors is borderline elite but team efg% drags them to near worst. Average at attempting 3s but can't hit them. Drive a lot and get fouled a lot but can't get all the way to rim to score outright. Griffin as PF playmaker sounds modern & interesting but when you are 30th on assists and near the bottom on team efg% you should do something radically different. Defense is average mainly because of #1 defensive rebounding. Fouling way too much.

Negative starting unit that can't shoot. Nothing else tried over 2 minutes per game. Jackson has bad to terrible pairs with all of the starters except Griffin (just meh there). No big minute strong pairs on team outside Ish Smith pairs... mainly with the bench. So they need a new starting PG who can get to rim and / or shoot 3s well, quality 3 point shooting almost everywhere else and more restraint with reaching on defense. I am not expecting much progress on these items.

I'd try to trade EVERYONE on team but Kennard. I could be talked into trading Kennard but I might spend less time on that one. Tank for 3-5 years seems like best strategy if they want to be anything beyond a fringe playoff hopeful and that is a stretch. They'll probably be a 30 win teams for a few more years before taking the plunge.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Tue Nov 06, 2018 7:16 pm

7 most used Doncic lineups are all negative, from mild to horrendous Smith and Barnes are the worst among regular pairs at worse than -12 per 100 possessions. Average on the court plus minus is -7. Mavs slightly better with him off the court.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:14 pm

Sixers are -1 cumulatively with their 10 most used / non-dink lineups combined. There is little chance of winning often if you aren't good with your most used lineups. Brown isn't that bad with the dink lineups but he is negative there too, mildly. Just insufficient strength compared to expectations. Even last season's starters have turned south recently.

Simmons has lots of negative pairs. Very mild positives with Embid and Redick but not much else.

Trying to fix Fultz, playing with Simmons and dealing with Saric is a lot. The latter two issues probably need more attention or different approaches. Fultz - Summon is performing bad but it is not the only bad pair. They probably ought to avoid 2 of these 3 on court together much or at least without Embid.

There are certainly reasons to think one or more trades should be considered for the long run.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Thu Nov 08, 2018 6:06 pm

Only 10 lineups in whom league used over 100 minutes for season so far. 4 good ones. Charlotte, GSW, Portland and Toronto as the runaway best. Relax standard to 60 minutes are there are 30 such lineups but only 8 strong ones. 30 coaches and analytic shops and that is all they've created so far. Utah, Orlando, New Orleans and OKC have strong performers over 60 minutes. Houston, no lineups of this size. Denver's qualifier is barely positive. Atlanta and Chicago with by far worst performing in group. Cleveland, Dallas, Lakers in next worst tier. Boston, modest positive. Bucks nice but not spectacular. Knicks have put together a good one. Last season's best by Sixers with Redick is only mildly positive.

4069 total lineups used so far across the league for an average of 136 per team.

To my mind there should be more like 60-90 lineups over 60 minutes by now, not 30. And only 57% of them positive so far? Not impressive.

The 4069 lineups were so important to play that on average they weren't played a full second time yet. Less than 30% cumulatively positive. 92% used less than 10 minutes for season (dink lineups).

59% of non-dink lineups are cumulatively positive, while only 27% of dink lineups are. But who cares, let the coaches randomly use 125 dink lineups. They are just getting the chaos started. They'll find hundreds more to try.

eminence
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by eminence » Thu Nov 08, 2018 6:42 pm

There can only be a couple teams (~5) with good-great net ratings, I'm not sure if it's provable, but it's not too surprising that approximately the same percent of lineups will find great success. At higher minutes that percentage should grow, as coaches are likely playing their better lineups the most (and honestly not sure how true this is factoring in that many teams rightfully value development over competing in the immediate), but I doubt it grows too far until you shrink the sample to ridiculous levels.

Though obviously it would benefit teams if they could better identify their best lineups early (relative to other teams) and make use of them.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Thu Nov 08, 2018 6:57 pm

8 of the 30 most used being strong is perhaps not that bad given competition. But it is not particularly impressive either. A lot of their time is probably against weak on average dink lineups so I'd think more than 57% could rise above neutral if the coaches and analytic staffs were dialed in.

On average coaches are using 21 lineups per game. Mostly dink. Very lightly or never tested before in season.

It is probable than a non-dink lineup playing against a dink lineup wins on average near or above 70% of the time. Teams should strategize to get that matchup as much as possible. Or they can just do what they are doing.

eminence
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by eminence » Thu Nov 08, 2018 7:16 pm

I could see it being a bit higher. But on average I'm not sure dink lineups are that much inferior to the higher minutes lineups to move it too much.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Fri Nov 09, 2018 12:58 am

Chris Paul having by far his worst season of career... at this point. Shooting / scoring efficiency way off. I dunno about his personal defense. Almost 4 long years ahead.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Fri Nov 09, 2018 1:05 am

Jonathan Issac on court, Magic lose by 10 pts per 100 possessions. Negative pairs with entire main rotation. Mildly negative pairs with each starter. Horrendous with much of the bench. Mixed bag on individual stats compared to last season. Overall below average.

eminence
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by eminence » Fri Nov 09, 2018 3:34 am

Watched quite a bit of Rockets so far this season and they've been pretty awful (I'm Gary Clark's biggest fan), and it's been pretty ugly, not a lot of effort out there, and the offensive system is looking very bleh if Harden/CP3 aren't locked in.

Crow
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Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Fri Nov 09, 2018 7:06 am

They no longer play"balanced" Moreyball. Shots at rim went from 11th ranked last season to 20th now. FT rate from 3rd to 20th.

Own turnovers are down and offensive rebounding is up but not nearly valuable enough to offset going from 2nd best on team efg% to 21st.

Tough schedule and change gives some excuse but not for long.

Clark's BPM to date would be 17th best among draftees though he wasn't drafted. I heard good things about him and was sorta surprised he wasn"t drafted. Perfect sized forward. Incredible 3pt frequency so far. Incredibly low TO rate. Of course low minutes. Some good defensive marks. Great defensive rebounding, Some things to work on (3pt fg%, ft rate, ast rate, pf rate) but multiple good signs are quite encouraging.

eminence
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by eminence » Fri Nov 09, 2018 5:17 pm

Yeah, I've been relatively happy with how Clark himself has played so far. Shot being off is the only major issue imo. Don't think he can be a sharpshooter or anything, but he can certainly do better than he is now (33% type shooter). His 3PAr is actually a bit too high for my tastes. Doesn't see the ball much on offense and seems to just put it up whenever he does, think he'd benefit from slowing it down a bit and leveraging his passing/handling (he's alright for a 4). Not a big thing, but I think it'll be something he can settle into, he's probably making a point of sticking to his role (floor spacer) for now as a 2-way contract.

Shoot it a bit better, get to the rim a bit more, and things will improve for them, but whether they're still contenders or not comes down to who CP3 is now.

eminence
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by eminence » Fri Nov 09, 2018 5:32 pm

Which teams in general have people found themselves watching this season? Jazz, Warriors, Rockets, and Sixers seem to be the teams I've been watching more than anybody else so far.

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