2018-19 season commentary

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Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Wed Dec 05, 2018 12:41 am

Crow wrote:
Sun Aug 19, 2018 2:05 am
By at least one measure, Rockets, Thunder, Pelicans, T Wolves and Bucks all had terrible performing benches last season. Did any really fix this issue? I'd guess no in all cases.

Pretty much true. Bucks' bench got better but just barely above the bottom third.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Wed Dec 05, 2018 1:05 am

Crow wrote:
Wed Aug 29, 2018 5:21 pm
Atkinson gets / gives an interview to The Athletic. May invoke some more sympathy & support. He has already had imo great / sympathetic press. But... in 2 seasons the Nets are only modestly better and still quite bad. Underperformed expected wins by 3 -4 wins each season. Time to achieve more.

Shot distribution became much more Moreyball in 2016-17 but then shots at rim reverted sharply back to below average last season. 3pt and fta are still good but efg% is short of average and not enough to do anything. Offensive efficiency is still well below average ad probably won't reach average this season. Defensive efficiency hasn't broken out of bottom 10 and showed almost no improvement overall last season.

Actual wins already 3 worse than expected. Offense better, defense worse. Shot selection is pretty good from a Moreyball perspective but the efficiency is average.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Wed Dec 05, 2018 4:54 am

By SRS, the current Hawks are the worst performing team relative to their league in 7 years and the 12th worst relative performer of all-time.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Thu Dec 06, 2018 1:50 am

Nets started lineup with RHJ and Crabbe that I suggested on Sunday.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Thu Dec 06, 2018 6:20 pm

18 players with a plus 3.75 or better on RPM estimate. 4 teams (GSW, TOR, MEM and MIL) have two. So 14 teams have one. Can you win a title without one? Possibly. But likely the winner will have one. Having two seems like an important advantage.

Clips, Nuggets, Rockets, TWolves, Jazz are reasonably close to having 2. Nuggets have 3 over plus 3. Hornets close to having one. Thunder, Pelicans, Magic, Mavs and Kings with one or close. Sixers and Pistons further off. Toronto and Milwaukee have 4 over plus 2.7. Spurs, Wizards, Heat not that close. Clips have a pretty good 3rd. Pelicans and Blazers have a pretty good 2nd guy.

Leaguewide, less than 60 guys estimated over plus 1.5. You better have 2 to be decent. 3 or 4 or more to be good or great. Celtics barely have 3 over plus 1.5. Raptors 5, Bucks, Warriors, Clippers, Nuggets and Thunder 4. Lakers, Pelicans, Blazers, Rockets and Sixers 2. Pelicans 3. T Wolves almost 3. Griz and Jazz 2. Magic close to 3. A half dozen teams with one.

Only 6-7 teams have enough good / great talent to be considered contenders by these numbers, imo. Some other teams might be able to pull off an upset but seem unlikely to do it several times.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Thu Dec 06, 2018 7:41 pm

Capela's RPM estimate has fallen from plus 2.1 last season to minus 1.3. Fallen almost 4 full points on DRPM. Examine everything. If he doesn't look like an impact player in 1-2 months, look closely at trading him. Don't have time for doubts or major decline.

Looks good in box score. But shot defense is largely missing from the boxscore and handled imprecisely / poorly in most box score metrics. Need to check luck adjusted and lineup data.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Fri Dec 07, 2018 4:33 am

Among the top 20 most used lineup in league, the Rockets' starting unit is the 4th worst performing. Will it change- the lineup or the results?

Start Gary Clark? I'd give it a try.

eminence
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by eminence » Fri Dec 07, 2018 5:10 am

Crow wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 4:33 am
Among the top 20 most used lineup in league, the Rockets' starting unit is the 4th worst performing. Will it change- the lineup or the results?

Start Gary Clark? I'd give it a try.
Holy cow. Just looked at their 5-man lineups, his top 3 lineups minutes wise are all over +40.

He's the only common factor in their the top 5 +/- lineups in their top 20 minutes used.

And he's not even playing tonight... How can they not see this?

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Sat Dec 08, 2018 4:09 am

Spurs:

Starters used less than 6 minutes per game for season and mildly negative. Next two lineups used about 2 minutes per game and really horrible. Everything else near dink and dink.

85% of the 20 most used player pairs are negative. Meanwhile half the rest of pairs are positive. So Pop is missing badly on the big choices while doing better with the smaller ones probably involving mostly transition and heavy bench lineups (under 8 minutes per game for season, typically only 2-3 minutes / gm).

261 different lineups used in 25 games. Only 31% with positive results for season. Only 11 used in 1/3 or more of the games and few in slightly more than half. The other 250 are thus not "essential". Only about 60 used more than twice. About 120 used just twice, 80 used just once.

So a typical set of lineups for Pop in a game would be a handful he has used more than a few times, about two handfuls of lineups he has used just once before and a final handful he has not used before this season. And just 1 lineup with any claim imo for meaningful sample size.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Sat Dec 08, 2018 5:08 am

Bucks make changes to bench.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Sat Dec 08, 2018 5:58 am

Kawhi Leonard's DRPM is worst of his career. Some called his relatively low DRPM in 2016-17 a fluke or, stronger, a failure of DRPM. Well, different team, even bigger issue. Problem more with DRPM or Kawhi? I guess luck adjusted measures would add more numbers to consider.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Sat Dec 08, 2018 6:18 am

Lakers start out 8-6 then go 7-3. Biggest change I noticed was to FTAs but shooting them poorly. Change in luck, coaching, clutch play? What do you think?

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Sat Dec 08, 2018 6:24 am

Pistons, Hornets, Magic, Wizards, Heat. 3 make playoffs, 2 will not. Which do you like to make it and not?

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Sat Dec 08, 2018 6:39 am

Gentry's 17 most used lineups, plus 178. Everything else -113. Weak bench but weak dinking too. Probably could do better with more lineup concentration. 12 of those 17 were outstanding performers... but not the only one used over 2.5 minutes per game for season. After the 17 most used, Gentry getting positive returns from less than 28% of the other 250 lineups. Same old story.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Sat Dec 08, 2018 7:04 am

Clark has too few minutes for the early results to be that moving. He is best with Harden and Tucker. There are hot and cold lineups and sub-lineups. Cool with Paul. Random or something wrong in those or some of those lineups? What do the folks paid the big bucks know, think and are doing about it? I'll probably look into it further later.

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