2018-19 season commentary

[Dr Positivity]

I have not watched the most Suns games this year but I hear Ayton is very bad on defense, like Kanter-ing. 0.9 blks per 36 and 53rd for centers in DRPM. Reading some Suns message boards, instead of the usual homerism hyping up young prospects, many are complaining about his lack of consistent effort

[eminence]

I have not watched the most Suns games this year but I hear Ayton is very bad on defense, like Kanter-ing. 0.9 blks per 36 and 53rd for centers in DRPM. Reading some Suns message boards, instead of the usual homerism hyping up young prospects, many are complaining about his lack of consistent effort

Haven't watched much Suns either, but not too surprised based off scouting coming into the league.

[Crow]

G Clark certainly doesn't have the boxscore stats so far to justify heightened time. But the other stuff isn't working and who know what will happen til you try it.

His RPM profile is as a guy who isn't hurting you. So it may be more about who else is out there and who isn't. Letting the scorers score.

[Crow]

Bulls may believe going tough on the players is called for / might possibly work, or it may be more about directing blame on the players, or possibly directing blame on players to justify / excuse upcoming trade efforts.

[Crow]

Doncic's offensive rating has been clearly below average every time I recall checking. His efg% is mildly below average. Must have fallen below recently. When tonight's game is added to the records it appears the intermediate stat of ts% will also slip slightly below league average. Was above before but not by my calculations after tonight's 7 points on 12 true shot attempts.

He did pass & rebound tonight. And the turnover issue has been missing recently. Only 43% above league average TO% now for season (before tonight). A / TO will "jump" to almost 1.24 to 1. That cuts 2017-18 Dion Waiters' A/TO advantage to just 33%. Will his TS% stay ahead of this season's Michael Beasley? Going to be close tomorrow. On Offensive Rating Dennis Schroder might have passed him tonight.

Fyi for Bill Simmons, Marc Stein and that NBA scout who said Doncic's ceiling is a 6-8 Steve Nash: Nash's career A/TO is down only 236% of Doncic's. But I'll let you know when he catches up to career Dion Waiters' A/TO first. May be awhile. 18% lead for Dion.

Beasley's ts% as good or better than Doncic's in 5 of last 6 seasons. Schroder's offensive rating about the same this and the last two seasons that got him traded for a massive to be waived salary.

Don't know what the future numbers will look like yet but these are a few of his neighbors on these stats right now. Doncic generally with the lead on overall metrics, but mainly on defense or team defense.

Doncic has seen teams more than once in 5 games so far (Jazz 3 times). His Gamescore was worse in later game than previous one in 4 of 5 cases by a little twice and by a lot twice. That is not much of a sample size here... but the same overall downward pattern occurred on repeat appearances against teams last season (See my previous posts here or on twitter some time last winter / spring. You won't find it in the major media or anywhere else to my knowledge.) Opponents contained him better next time after they faced him the first time last season. Still kinda small sample? Yeah, but that is the way it leans.

[Crow]

Yep, Beasley moves ahead of Doncic on ts% for season and Schroder ahead on offensive rating. That is where we are.

[Crow]

Like points per 100 possessions played? Doncic is 78th (on average teams have 2.6 scoring faster). Behind Beasley and Schroder. And Antonio Blakeney, Terrence Ross.

[Crow]

Blazers most used lineup is a mere plus 2 per 100 possessions. Next three most used lineups are 5-10 times better performing. Different contexts but does this make sense? Not really, to me.

They all could be used more. Just cut back on the dink lineups.

Top 4 lineups, 45% of total time, averaging plus 10.3 pts / 100 poss. The other 197 lineups getting 55% of time and performing at an average of -5.1 pts / 100 possessions. But go ahead be typical and play a ton of hardly known, on average poor lineups (15 pts / 100 worse than your best known).

Your best big minute lineup is plus 20pts / 100, one of best performing lineups in league and you are playing it 6 minutes per game. And why is that?

[Crow]

Super big minute lineups very rare out there. Coaches not concentrating enough. Dinking all over the place.

Raptors with best performing lineup over about 6 minutes per game. Actually used about 10-11 min / g. Plus 12 pts / 100. Only 1 other half as good at a 1/3rd less minutes. A handful of other lineups nice but not that impressive or impactful due to modest use. Not impressed with the lineup management at all, even by good teams. 3-4 handfuls of very strong lineups not getting much time. They might not be great but what coaches are going with instead aren't and usually aren't close to the best performing candidates. Because they go by names and "experience" or "feel" and not the results.

RAPM for lineups would obviously help and would change, maybe narrow list. I doubt many teams have done this or use the results with vigor. Old school inefficiencies continue.

[Crow]

Mavs doing better than I expected. But starting lineup is still one of the worst performing big minute lineups in league. And only one of the ten most used player pairs is a tiny fraction positive. Maybe the starters just don't fit together. They aren't that good generally as used. Bench is doing well though.

[Crow]

Doncic, 6 makes on his last 26 3pt attempts.

Overall fg% and 3pt fg% have fallen each month. December's numbers going into night were horrendous: 34% overall, 30% from 3.

[Crow]

Doncic's shooting stats will fall further in tomorrow's tabulation. TS% won't be much affected.

[Crow]

Of 291 rookies who played 20 plus minutes per game as rookies since 2000-1, Doncic is just above median on offensive rating at 134th. Ahead of some big names but middle of pack. What really matters is where he is in year 3-5. Will need to climb.

[Mike G]

Rookies who have gotten at least 20 Pts/100 poss., TReb% > 10, and Ast% >20

Code: Select all

20-10-20     Tm  yr  Pts/100  TS%   TRb%   Ast%
Alvan Adams  Phx'76   26.0   .507   14.9   27.2
Magic        LAL'80   22.9   .602   11.6   25.2
Lamar Odom   LAC'00   23.3   .521   12.0   20.2
Ben Simmons  Phl'18   22.5   .557   13.0   37.4
Luka Doncic  Dal'19   26.8   .554   11.6   21.7
   

http://bkref.com/tiny/065EL
These guys all got >30 mpg; no other rookie has these numbers in >10 mpg
Adams a 6-9 C who never repeated at this level, quite.
Doncic the youngest of the bunch.

[Crow]

Doncic, the least positive of this rookie group on BPM. Behind Odom by a little. Behind the others by huge margins.

High usage, high points. Probably behind Adams on usage by a little. Ahead of the others clearly. Last and second to last in group on reb% and ast %.