2018-19 season commentary

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shadow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by shadow » Fri Dec 28, 2018 5:17 pm

No worries. I only just saw that the post implied I was linking to your data. Thanks for clearing it up.

DSMok1
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by DSMok1 » Fri Dec 28, 2018 5:46 pm

Rd11490 wrote:
Fri Dec 28, 2018 4:45 pm
I don't want to take credit for shadow's data; They linked their own data set. My 5 year RAPM (2014-15 - 2018-19, regular season only) can be found here

This is excellent work!

Can you please include the number of possessions for each player in the dataset? That makes it easier to visualize how the regularization is behaving.
Developer of Box Plus/Minus
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Mike G
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Mike G » Sat Dec 29, 2018 12:56 pm

Rd, what is the meaning of LA_RAPM?
Sometimes it's quite close to your RAPM column value, sometimes not.

Rd11490
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Rd11490 » Sat Dec 29, 2018 8:07 pm

I tried to add a small luck adjustment to RAPM last year with 2 changes to the play by play:

The points scored off free throws to the FT% of the shooter. If a 75% ft shooter hits both his FTs in a stint, in RAPM it would be 2 points, in LA-RAPM it is worth 1.5 points.


The points scored off 3s are changed to the shooters career PPS from the location of the shot. A 3 from the left corner from a player who shoots 50% from the left corner is worth 1.5 points regardless if he makes it or not.

I then aggregate the stints, calculate the net ratings and run the regularization as normal.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Mon Dec 31, 2018 3:58 am

Magic have imo too much of their assets tied up in big men. Salary isn't that bad at moment but will trend bigger / probably worse to way worse. Didnt really learn from similar issue in past administration.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Fri Jan 04, 2019 3:50 am

Of players estimated at -3 or worse by RPM, not many surprise me. Avery Bradley being at -4.66 surprised me some. -2 or -3 wouldn't but being near the very bottom did. Real, luck, context or whatever combo, that's bad.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Fri Jan 04, 2019 9:34 pm

Warriors: 80% of 20 most used player pairs are positive but only 60% of the 20 most used lineups are. Not finishing them well here either. Haven't used starting lineup that much due to Draymond's absence.

Really outside shooting well on a non-Moreyball shot distribution there is not much to praise in the team stats. Only 14th on 3pt rate but they don't seem to care. Defensive rebounding is 8th best. Beyond that no other Factor is top 10.

They are better than their stats but this is kinda sloppy, not impressive. Take about a 3 pt lead in the 12 minutes per game that Curry-Durant-Green have played together. Tack on just one more point in the other 36 minutes. So elite for one quarter of game, barely above average the rest of the game.

34% of the 358 lineups played with have been positive. Relatively good I guess but nothing special.

eminence
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by eminence » Sat Jan 05, 2019 4:33 am

I really liked the Warriors a couple of seasons ago, but at this point I'm hoping they switch up something in the off-season, they're just so dull to watch during the regular season. Effort levels in the basement, somewhat understandably.

Hoping the Jazz can take care of a relatively easy upcoming schedule and put themselves back in the hunt for homecourt.

Continued to be a fun/deep rookie class to follow. The 25 guys over 400 minutes by Shadow's RAPM (so I could squeeze Gary in, what can I say, I'm a fan).

Huerter 1.62
Brunson 1.33
Doncic 0.86
Kurucs 0.62
Hutchison 0.42
JJJ 0.37
SGA 0.07
Okogie -0.04
Clark -0.11
Mikal -0.20
Robinson -0.36
Brown -0.47
Okobo -0.56
Miles -0.58
Melton -0.63
Ayton -0.64
WCJ -1.27
Bagley -1.42
Shamet -2.11
Trier -2.30
Spellman -2.70
Young -3.18
Knox -3.45
Sexton -3.96
Bamba -4.02

SGA probably the guy who's grown on me most in the NBA. His herky-jerky style can be a lot of fun.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Thu Jan 10, 2019 3:53 am

Jerry West is the only player in top 25 currently for NBA / ABA career scoring who wasn't at least 6-5. That eventually will change. Will 5 or more smaller guys make the top 25 in future? I assume so. Harden, Westbrook, Curry. Maybe Irving, Lillard, possibly Oladipo and other younger guys in league or not yet.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Sat Jan 12, 2019 3:23 am

Knicks in all minutes this season about 2 points worse / 100 possession than they were last season when Porzingis (and most of the other starters) were off the court. About 1 pt better on offense, 3 pts worse on defense.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Mon Jan 14, 2019 2:03 am

At factor level Knicks this season are better at 3 on offense, only 1 on defense compared to last season. Fizdale's Griz were split evenly on offensive & defensive factor change in first year after hire. How much time will he get to improve things? Assume Mills / Perry will give him time since they picked him but there may be some point next season or the following summer where that support slips.

Mike G
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Mike G » Mon Jan 14, 2019 1:51 pm

After 42 games, Luka Doncic seems to be ironing out the kinks in his game. Dividing into equal thirds of 14 games each:

Code: Select all

gms     TS%   DRb%   Ast%   Stl%   TO%   Usg%  ORtg  DRtg  GmSc
1-14   .584   17.9   20.2   1.3   19.6   25.9   104  110   12.8
15-28  .532   20.3   28.8   1.9   15.4   26.8   106  108   13.6
29-42  .574   17.5   30.8   1.9   11.8   32.1   114  110   18.0
https://www.basketball-reference.com/pl ... nced/2019/
A shooting slump in the middle, more than made up by improved DReb, Ast, Stl, and especially Turnovers.
In the recent 1/3, more and better shooting, continued passing, and much better O/D

Nobody in the league this year has Ast% and Usg over 30, with TO% <12 and ORtg>113.
Last season, Kyrie and Dame turned the trick. Isaiah Thomas in '16/17. Before that LeBron 3 times; McGrady, Wade, and Jordan once each.
http://bkref.com/tiny/2aYRT

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Mon Jan 14, 2019 3:32 pm

Cutting backs on the turnovers on average is a big deal. But 5 last night pulled him below 1 point / possession used again.

It appears he has cut way back on the long twos as well (or there is / was a glitch in the data). Was a lot higher the last time I checked. Just 1 non paint 2 pt attempt last night. 10 3ptas. Has done that 3 times, all in last 2 weeks. If he stays with that it could be good.

Efg% remains clearly below league average though.

The DReb% is nothing special if he is playing PF or playing instead of a PF. How tall is he? I dunno. https://www.mavsmoneyball.com/2018/9/26 ... -right-now

Mike G
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Mike G » Mon Jan 14, 2019 5:47 pm

Doncic is listed at 6'7". He's played 78% of his minutes at PF and 22% at SF.
There are 93 players between 6-6 and 6-8 who have played at least 500 minutes this year. In DReb%, Doncic ranks 10th of 93. He's #26 in OReb% and #14 in TReb%.
http://bkref.com/tiny/Qz3wu
Just among F and F-C of that size, he would be #8 of 36 (though he strangely disappears from the list).

Of the 93 midsizers, he's 6th in Ast% (after 3 tall guards, LeBron, and Draymond).
14th in WS/48, 5th in PER, 4th in BPM
After that slow start, he has above median ORtg.

His eFG% is #43 of 93, TS% is #28
Of 4 guys who score more Pts/Poss, 2 have higher shooting%, and 2 are lower.
Dallas shoots .561 TS% -- Doncic shoots .564 -- vs the NBA's .558
More significantly, Mavs shoot .505 eFG% when he's off the floor vs .529 when he's on.

All these numbers are for the full season, and he's vastly improved since those first weeks.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Mon Jan 14, 2019 8:40 pm

Only about 15% of the guys in that list play PF. Most PFs are over 6'8 and therefore not in the comparison. He doesn't have an easily defined or perfect peer group for overall comparison. His role is heightened above average level on scoring, passing and rebounding.

Players of that size are worse than average shooters and probably worse than league average on overall metrics. Most of these guys are small forwards, on average the least exceptional on anything.

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