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The discussion of the analysis of basketball through objective evidence, especially basketball statistics.
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 Post subject: Morey & Presti
PostPosted: Tue Jun 19, 2018 7:05 am 
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Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm
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Two accomplished GMs... but no rings after a combined 22 seasons of running the show. Both are committed deeply to that goal but it hasn't been realized despite 3-4 future Hall of Famers on each of their rosters for stretches. Conference finals, one game won in the finals. Those things tip in Presti's favor. The future probably tips in Morey's favor. If GM skill, team talent assembled and luck were equal for all in league, you might have expected about .726 titles from either of their squads in this time span or more likely at least one than not. But they are at not.


Will that change by their 15th anniversary? Will that determine if they get a 20th season? They'll almost certainly get to 15 but I think it is more likely to not include a title than include. 20 years? Probably but maybe not certainly. Title by 20th season? I dunno. They'd be overdue for one if they are / were / will be at the mean or better. Titles do tend to be somewhat concentrated but 6 teams / GMs have grabbed at least one while they have been competing for them, including both of their first bosses.

Both believe in analytics- in their own way. Neither believes in or at least practices a prominent ex-player or coach in the front office. (8 of the last 11 titles went to teams with such, meaningful factor or not.) Both have chosen pretty stubborn or insufficiently flexible coaches imo but that is debatable. Morey's coaches mostly had long pro careers as players. Presti's half n half not. Spending hasn't always been high but sometimes was and will be and probably is not a sufficient by itself explanation for no titles. Small market? A more legit excuse for OKC but maybe for Houston too to some extent. Both have had good luck and bad luck.

Have they changed their approach? That might need another post. Could say yes, could say not enough. Will either change significantly from here? One lead way on 3 point game, one was / is a late comer. Both believed in inside shots and / or foul shots. One always believed in D, one sometimes but maybe never enough. One has courted the press, the other mostly shunned it but still tried to use it to define himself.

At some point (1-3 yrs ago) I looked at how long GMs who won titles went before getting it. I don't recall exactly the details but it was either very rare or unprecedented to go 10 plus years and then get a title later. Probably rare over unprecedented. But either way, it is at least rare. I'd think most analytic advocates / practitioners who be surprised that these GMs are still without titles, now and probably earlier. Average fans too. Owners probably too. I know a lot of Thunder fans expected 3-5 or more. Rockets fans at least thought they had a good chance or still do.

Both have believed in stars and superstars. Both would say they believe in team and of course they do but did they believe in stars too much? The wrong ones? Team too little?

Both think they are contenders. I won't say they are not but I don't think they are top 2. The Thunder are perhaps top 8 or not. Rockets probably third, maybe lower. The fight for the throne will continue.


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 Post subject: Re: Morey & Presti
PostPosted: Wed Jun 27, 2018 6:41 pm 
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Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm
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Some GMs produce other GMs. The Rockets under Morey have not produced any. The Thundr under Presti have but none of them have accomplished much.


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 Post subject: Re: Morey & Presti
PostPosted: Wed Jun 27, 2018 8:08 pm 
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Joined: Thu Sep 20, 2012 6:44 pm
Posts: 280
Presti is a great drafter but with trades, free agents, etc. it's no contest for me in Morey's favor, and the Rockets are set up to have a chance at a title for a while. I don't think Presti has done a great job at all outside of drafting, with obvious non-analytics moves like going all in on Waiters and Kanter killing the team, and of course not recognizing how much of a star trajectory Harden was already on and some of the major pieces coming back being an overrated PPG guy (Kevin Martin) and a player with mediocre stats indicators in college (Lamb)


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