APBRmetrics

Hi,
Following the draft, the following 10 players are what my draft model categorized as late 1st round picks. As of today these players have not signed 2 way contracts with any teams, and from what i could find did not pull out of the draft to return to school.

When sorted for defensive ability all of these players ranked in the 20-30 range of the 1st round.

All of these players passed the models thresholds and were ranked at the back of the 1st round as they are Sophomore and Seniors. My model does give a penalty for age/class, but I don't believe as much as many other models & scouts in general. I/my model believe sophomores and seniors have traditionally been penalized to harshly by both draft models and scouts and present great rotational level value at a controllable rookie contract amount and length.

As a reminder, how the draft model was put together can be found on my website http://www.zigzaganalytics.com/home/nba-draft-model

The below players could therefore be seen as 1st round talent at a heavy discount to fill rosters vs veteran contracts.

Player Name Position School Summer League Roster
Donte Ingram Versatile Wing Loyola (IL) Chicago
Yante Maten Versatile Wing Georgia Miami
Jordan McLaughlin Ball Handler USC Brooklyn
Cassius Winston Ball Handler Michigan State
Hayden Dalton Versatile Wing Wyoming
Dylan Osetkowski Versatile Wing Texas
Peyton Aldridge Versatile Wing Davidson
Kenrich Williams Versatile Wing Texas Christian Denver
Kelan Martin Versatile Wing Butler Utah
Braian Angola Rodas Wing/Ball Handler Florida State

K Williams is one of the few among these that I have heard about and the only one I've looked into. Playing summer league for Nuggets. No commitment either way. He probably wants a guaranteed contract and apparently teams are waiting or only offering 2way or partial guarantee or trying to get the long, cheap deal with team options. I'd guess he has a pretty good chance to eventually sign something. Agent? Someone I had not heard of before with just low ranked clients. Being over age 23.5 is surely a factor.

That table pasted terribly.

I listed in the last column as of yesterday the summer league team they are with. 5 at the moment I could find

Ingram -Chicago
Maten - Miami
McLaughlin - Brooklyn
Williams - Denver
Martin - Utah

I only had one guy in my top 20 who didn't get picked - Bonzie Colson (on Cavs summer league team). It was already uphill climb for him as very short PF (although apparent 7 foot wingspan) before he had foot injury so no surprise he didn't get picked. But based on successes like Draymond, Millsap and to lesser extent Landry, he is one of the most common prototypes for non 1st round picks that have made it

I’m sure some of the guys left on my list fit the bonzie Colson mould, in terms of they are an undersized big when you do the eye test. I did try to identify this in the model with certain offense statistics and physical attributes that are traits of someone who can play as a versatile wing.

The eye test is obviously required. But in saying that, statistical models might also be finding what are known as ‘undersized bigs’ through the role they played in college but in fact they have traits to be a versatile wing.

Gary Clark for instance who I can banging on about

watto84 wrote:I’m sure some of the guys left on my list fit the bonzie Colson mould, in terms of they are an undersized big when you do the eye test. I did try to identify this in the model with certain offense statistics and physical attributes that are traits of someone who can play as a versatile wing.

Though just to clarify, it's not just being undersized PF that gets Colson on my list, it's that combined with the strong stats profile, per 40 minutes: 24.4 pts, 12.5 reb, 1.1, ast, 2.8 blk, 2.1 stl, the blk/stl is really the key stat there. With potential to be a 3pt shooter (Only 29% from 3 this year, but 76% FT and at least he took 3s at 3.4/40, and as a junior he shot 43.3% 3P. Both junior and senior seasons the 3P% is SSS of 58-60 3PA only, but combined junior/senior seasons is 36.4% 3P on 118 3PA which seems promising with combined FT% of 77.5% for those two years). I don't think he's a guarantee to make it, I had him 16th without considering health concerns and I don't love this draft that much