APBRmetrics

The discussion of the analysis of basketball through objective evidence, especially basketball statistics.
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 Post subject: LV Summer League
PostPosted: Thu Jun 28, 2018 5:02 pm 
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Joined: Tue Sep 10, 2013 3:58 pm
Posts: 1723
Who here is planning to be there?


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 Post subject: Re: LV Summer League
PostPosted: Tue Jul 03, 2018 4:57 am 
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Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm
Posts: 5231
With comments being fairly rare here, might be best to check Twitter for Summer League attendees. I'd think some of draftniks will be there.


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 Post subject: Re: LV Summer League
PostPosted: Sun Jul 08, 2018 5:49 pm 
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Joined: Thu Sep 20, 2012 6:44 pm
Posts: 280
Zizic looks better than some lotto Intl picks like Bender and Frank. Not a surprise to me at all. After a string of numbers-friendly center prospects like Jokic, Nurkic, Gobert, Capela, Zizic being his draft's numbers friendly center looked like a good call to be the next version

In my opinion the biggest market inefficiency right now is how NBA drafts Intl players, or at least the bottom 10 teams do. It would make sense to me if numbers are more important for Intls than for NCAA. The rules are more similar with a 24 second shot clock and longer 3pt line and the competition level is higher. It is playing against men instead of amateurs many of whom would be lucky to go on to a career in Europe. It is professional basketball not amateur. The coaching and crowd environment is likely more intense.

However repeatedly high picks on spent on non numbers friendly projects like Hezonja, Bender, Frank, while superb per minute players at the time such as Gobert, Capela, Jokic, Zizic, Musa fall. Comparison of Frank, Gobert, Capela in French Pro A

Ntilikina per 40 (2017) - 11.2 pts, 4.7 reb, 3.1 ast, 1.5 stl, 0.4 blk, .532 TS%. On his team out of 10 qualified players: 9th in pts/40, 5th in ast/40, 7th in reb/40, 5th in stl/40, 6th in blk/40, 9th in TS%, 9th in PER

Gobert per 40 (2013) - 14.9 pts, 9.5 reb, 0.7 ast/40, 3.1 blk, 1.2 stl, .734 TS%. On his team out of 7 qualified players: 5th in pts/40, 1st in reb/40, 1st in blks/40, 5th in stl/40, 7th in ast/40, 1st in TS, 1st in PER

Capela per 40 (2014) - 17.1 pts, 12.1 reb, 2.8 blk, 1.5 stl, 2.3 ast. On his team 2nd in pts/40, 2nd in reb/40, 1st in blk/40, 2nd in stl/40, 5th in ast/40, 1st in TS%, 1st in PER

Frank had virtually no chance on offense as a rookie in the NBA with those kind of numbers at a much lower level, with both low scoring volume and low scoring efficiency. He went on to average 9.8 pts/40 on .437 TS% as a rookie. The chance of him being a 7th-9th man level player in French Pro A and then jumping into a good start statistically in the NBA was low. At best he was a many many year, risky project, if he was considered that risky on offense by the Knicks I wonder if they would have taken him over a player with as much jump off the screen talent, but supposedly risky in Smith, Jr.

In Frank's draft the Sixers got a 2nd rounder who was a much more productive French League player than Frank. Matthias Lessort per 40 - 17.9 pts, 12.6 reb, 1.2 ast, 1.8 blk, 1.2 stl, .594 TS%. Out of 8 qualified on his team 4th in Pts/40, 1st in reb/40, 7th in ast/40, 1st in blks/40, 5th in stl/40, 3rd in TS%, 1st in PER. Considering he is a big man like Gobert and Capela, seems like a decent precedent to follow up on. He went on to Euroleague this year and did well in a 21mpg role and standing out as a rebounder, shotblocker. While nearly 3 years older I suspect the chance of him having a better career than Frank are quite solid


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 Post subject: Re: LV Summer League
PostPosted: Sun Jul 08, 2018 6:18 pm 
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Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm
Posts: 5231
Good numbers international big man, I'll tend to believe and look closer. International PG or wing, I'll start at skeptical, good numbers or not. Cuz of historic results when they play in NBA.


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