APBRmetrics

The discussion of the analysis of basketball through objective evidence, especially basketball statistics.
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PostPosted: Sat Jun 30, 2018 10:18 pm 
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Work by Ryan Davis in courtesy response to my query. See the link on twitter https://mobile.twitter.com/rd11490/stat ... 835520?p=v


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 01, 2018 7:51 pm 
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Initial data observations about the overall RAPM:

The unluckiest player (i.e. the one who got the biggest luck adjustment from the raw RAPM) was Joe Johnson (a 3 point adjustment). Thon Maker and Jae Crowder got almost 2 point adjustments. Middleton luck adjusted up 1.5.

The luckiest player in raw RAPM is Blake Griffin. His luck adjustment is down -2.6. Eric Gordon 2nd luckiest in raw RAPM, Embid 10th luckiest. Tatum estimated luckier in raw RAPM than 94% of players. About 80% of players have a raw-luck adjustment differential of less than 1 point.

On luck adjusted overall RAPM, Aldridge finishes first. Curry #2. Lowest luck adjusted estimate? Biyombo. Marcus Morris in bottom 5%. Do the Celtics front office or coach care? Among top ranked on luck adjusted, C Paul and Otto Porter got adjusted down the most from the raw RAPM. Draymond Green and K Middleton adjusted up the most among the leaders. At the very bottom of luck adjusted RAPM, the luck adjustment helps Mudiay and Felicio the most. the luck adjustment hurt D Davis the most of the guys near the bottom.

Comments on the factor data with come later after further review.


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 15, 2018 4:46 pm 
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Factor data has been adjusted and extended to earlier seasons. I'll be doing more study & commentary later. A little bit on twitter thread at above link.


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