Using Analytics to Bet on Games

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Using Analytics to Bet on Games

Post by Cicada » Fri Oct 12, 2018 10:00 pm

I've been lurking here for awhile now and am wondering what type of procedure is used to find the best betting opportunities. I'm currently an undergraduate with no python experience, and it makes these type of projects much more difficult. I did to a project a few months ago where I went through a pipeline on gitlab and calculated RAPM, but I'm becoming more curious on individual game predicting.

I know I read a "past thread worth reading" post about a simple formula using win% and a home court advantage adjustment, but am still looking for more ideas. Also, the simpler the better, as I won't be able to do anything fancy with python.

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Re: Using Analytics to Bet on Games

Post by sndesai1 » Fri Oct 12, 2018 10:44 pm

will guo wrote a solid article re:betting on nylon calculus - ... l-betting/

betting on individual nba game outcomes is not likely to be a profitable endeavor for the vast majority of people, even those that are well versed in nba analytics

certain props, futures, and other niche items with relatively small markets might be more ripe for the picking

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Re: Using Analytics to Bet on Games

Post by shadow » Sat Oct 13, 2018 4:51 pm

From an ESPN article on Bob Voulgaris about NBA gambling:
To help him build his model, Voulgaris required a specialist in the field, a mind trained in the codes of statistics, mathematics and computer science. He started the search in 2005. It took him two years and six individual tryouts -- most of those interviewees were found online, Voulgaris says, and two of them landed in NBA front offices -- to find the right person. The right person was a literal math prodigy. As a preteen, he had won national math contests; he had been the subject of awestruck articles in major newspapers. He had scored a perfect 800 on the math portion of the SAT when he was in seventh grade. At the time of his interview with Voulgaris, he had just quit a high-paying job designing algorithms for an East Coast hedge fund with a roster of Nobel-grade quant talent.
Source: ... ba-gambler

So needless to say, if you can't 'do anything fancy with Python' you don't really have any chance of competing in the NBA betting market for spreads/totals on individual games.

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