Fixing the Lakers

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Crow
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Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Fixing the Lakers

Post by Crow » Mon Nov 05, 2018 5:40 am

I'd offer Bzdelik $2-3 million to unretire and run the defense, if he is able to join a new team this season.

I'd play better rebounders at several positions. The offensive rebounding is pathetic for most of the wings / forwards and team defensive rebounding is even worse.

I'd trade Ingram. I'd try to include KCP.

I'd consider trading Ball but it would have to be a good offer and I'd try this other stuff first.

I'd play the starters a lot more. I'd be willing to play more 0-2 starter bench lead lineups to help facilitate this. I'd consider removing Kuzma from starting lineup if some other forward can be obtained. I'd play Hart more. I'd probably continue to start McGee but need to look closer.

There hasn't been a meaningful test of Rondo with the rest of the current starters. I'd find 5 games in the next 10-20 games to test it then review the options.

I might fire Walton but would want to try the above and a new offense using Moreyball principles first. Then will be plenty of time to fire Walton later if things don't start to change.

Dr Positivity
Posts: 287
Joined: Thu Sep 20, 2012 6:44 pm

Re: Fixing the Lakers

Post by Dr Positivity » Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:22 pm

Hard situation. Lebron's impact is on the way down and they don't have enough good players around him anyways. Trading Ingram for Butler could be a good idea. Ball has potential if he can be a guard who defends, shoots 40% 3, passes and rebounds, even if low volume scorer. Hart can also grow into 3 and D counterpart at SG. Lebron and them theoretically is a good fit but might be a year or two too early. Kuzma isn't shooting the 3 well enough to be worth starting right now. McGee and Rondo have played well which is scary considering they are still 4-6 in spite of that. Compared to the Cavs when Lebron went back, the Lakers neither have Irving (homegrown star) or Love (traded for perennial all-star), and Lebron is worse.

Crow
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Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: Fixing the Lakers

Post by Crow » Thu Nov 08, 2018 5:09 am

4 of Walton's 5 most used lineups are negative. The starters with Ingram pretty strongly negative. Substitute in Hart, performing 20 pts per 100 possessions better.

Ball - James is -5 in first 200 minutes. 9 of Ball's most used pairs are negative with only Hart forming a positive pair with him.

60% of the team's most used player pairs are negative and only 25% are even modestly above neutral with no really great pairs. The good pairs all have Hart or Rondo.

Of course it is early and this is raw, not equivalent data but it is enough to start review. RAPM and RAPM pairs & lineups are desired.

Ball has some dink lineups that are positive but too small to feel confident about yet. Test the thought to be best more... before it is too late Luke.

James is negative in 8 of his 10 most used pairs. Tiny positive with Hart and a deep bench guy.

Hart James and rest of current starters would be the most obvious lineup to increase testing on. Hart James with young guys or old guys. I wondered about going to young and ok shifts before season. Not seeing much sign that mixing is generally good with James. Youth with Rondo has pretty good data. 6 of top 10 pairs positive, moderate to strong.

McGee and Kuzma have some small minute lineups but the underlying player pair data is pretty meh.

After these few minutes of research I found myself wondering about Rondo Hart James Kuzma McGee. Walton has tried 150 lineups before tonight. This one has gotten 3.9 minutes of trial. Probably ought to be 10-20 times more already. Rondo Hart James Kuzma were good tonight on raw plus minus. McGee ok. Checking to see if they played as unit. Probably not. Easier to know tomorrow.

Coaches have various thoughts, biases, rotation habits and probably don't even know what they are missing, not trying or not trying enough. You dink with 150 lineups, how much do you learn? Not much, imo.



Will be interesting to see how patient or impatient Magic is. I dunno how involved in the details he is. Is he on same page as Pelinka?

Crow
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Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: Fixing the Lakers

Post by Crow » Thu Nov 08, 2018 4:48 pm

Walton didn't use Rondo Hart James Kuzma McGee last night.

Stepping back a bit, the best trios have James & Hart. With Ball or Kuzma. With Rondo isn't good but it is only 20th on minutes of testing. Rondo Hart James Chandler did very well last night. Several lineups that should get priority testing. To do that, will have to reduce the random play of huge numbers of dink lineups. Can only learn much about a few lineups at a time.

Crow
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Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: Fixing the Lakers

Post by Crow » Thu Nov 08, 2018 5:42 pm

LeBron has his least strong OBPM & DRPM since his rookie season. Lots of stats down some. Worst on the court plus minus of career at -1.

Crow
Posts: 5467
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: Fixing the Lakers

Post by Crow » Sat Nov 10, 2018 6:25 pm

The difference between Ball on and Rondo on is huge. If they want to win much this season they can't afford so many losing Ball minutes.

All of the 10 most used player pairs with Hart positive. None more so than with Ingram. Play them together more. Only together 1/3rd of Ingram's time so far. Ingram is negative with all starters. Positive with all rotation bench. But Walton in his wisdom plays with the starters. Maybe in line with front office dedication to Ingram as star, either now or future. He isn't though. Nowhere close even to average on metrics. Team shoots and passes better with Hart. Could use more help with ftas and rebounding though.

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