2019 free agency

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Klay Thompson to the Lakers? I could see it. Not sure who the Lakers are prioritizing in free agency but it would probably be considered a top possibility. Are there estimated better impact players by RPM who are free agents? Yes. Who would pick the Lakers? I dunno.

Either or both of the Morris twins? Unlikely if they spend really big on a star but would be good pickups.

Cousins.

There are a lot of potentially decent value options if they focus on team needs over big splash.

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Beverley to Lakers? Probably doesn't happen but both sides should at least consider it.

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I have decided I would not re-sign and keep Kemba. Sign n trade if it is worth it.

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Help me out. Can you name free agents in last 5-10 years coming off rookie contracts or a sub role that were paid $10 plus million per year on new deal who were not "sure things" at time of signing but turned out to be good value on that new deal? I am just starting to look.

My thesis is that you should not gamble on development or fit with $10 plus million per year contracts. I'd need to see a number of successful gambles on non-sure things to back off that stance. The negative cases are easier to recall.

Oladipo probably meets the criteria of not being a sure thing but working out well. Who else? Maybe Nurkic. Possibly Derrick Favors. Thaddeus Young.

Isn't that 5-10 or more times as many not sure thing guys paid 8 figures who didnt deliver good value? Paying based on starter minutes or projected starter minutes is a bad approach. Got to fight that, get more proof or give less pay / length.

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Might the Lakers go for Vucevic?

Irving?

They need almost everything, in terms of starters. Ball, Ingram, Kuzma are not close to what is needed yet. Maybe not soon or ever.

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T Harris for the max? I wouldn't want to. RPM was +1.6. Up a bit from previous season but not that great. Probably not a great value to others. Philly might justify, given previous decisions. Weak 2nd round performance so far.

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J Randle... 21 pts, 9 rebs, 3 assists per game. Second straight season with an TS% of 60%. RPM is neutral. Big increases in 3pt rate and 3pt fg%. Still 45% FT rate. Just 24.5 years old.

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Every team alive in the playoffs has a star with RPM over 4.4.

If you decide to pay a player a max or near max contract and they are near plus 2 or less, they better not be your #1 or you aren't really competing for a title.

Looking at you Hornets (though Kemba is at 2.7). Spurs, Heat.

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Trade LeBron? Wouldn't be easy. They might dream of getting Zion. From Atlanta? Trade him back to Miami? To Clips? Kings? Who'd pursue it and make a plausible offer? Celtics? I can't see A Davis wanting to go there. LeBron... I dunno. Not his first choice but... it is hard to see Lakers and title coming together. Hornets? Raptors sign n trade for Kawhi? Spurs? Rockets? Warriors? Sixers? Pelicans?

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What might happen:

KD to Knicks. Kyrie to Nets. Unless they don't want him. Probably should but might not. If not, then Knicks.

If Kyrie doesn't go to Knicks, they might be wise to consider Beverley or possibly Rubio. I wouldn't go for Kemba.

Jimmy Butler? He might go to either.

I don't see titles either place. But that might not really be first priority. They obviously want to try to get that but secure stardom is important. For KD it is probably about endorsements, partnerships. Becoming a billionaire. Seeing family & friends more. Being #1 on team clearly. Maybe more scoring titles.

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I don't know what the Sixers will do. I don't really likely the spot they are in. They can run it back. But that probably isn't good enough.

Might Butler consider Raptors? I haven't heard anybody else suggest that. Not sure they'd have the money without changes but I assume the could get there. I am assuming Leonard leaves

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Heat want to do a big sign n trade. To get them out of the box of meh to bad contracts Riley piled up and got little out of. They'll probably go after Kyrie. Kyrie probably hadn't really looked that way but he might if things don't go the way he wants in New York. Celtics? I dunno what each side is thinking about a new deal together. If they part, Irving to Heat for Dragic and Olynyk might be agreeable.

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Give Klay Thompson a max deal or near-max? At the moment my general answer based on stats would be between no and heck no. Maybe somebody makes a big picture case for it.

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There are only two 2019 free agents I'd for sure want / be willing to give the full max to. Maybe you could talk me into a few others but not easily.

I don't know how many I'd give $20 million /yr but it is probably well less than the number who will get it.


(The case against giving the full max to Klay would mainly be 29 going on 30 by mid next season and regular season RPM failing to far below what it had ever been before. But having him at max may be better than not having him for some teams. I'd might have other targets ahead of him though, ahead of where he is listed on some top free agent lists. With price considered of course. Not that many free agents will be great values. It is the least productive market to participate in on average, outside the very top and a few under-rated role players.)

Outside the top 2 I'd give attention to B Lopez, Marcus Morris, Looney, Bevereley, Dedmon, Kleber, maybe Rubio, Noel.


Who would you target, in general or for a specific team?

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Horford opt out or in? Extend? Trade?