2019 free agency

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Klay Thompson to the Lakers? I could see it. Not sure who the Lakers are prioritizing in free agency but it would probably be considered a top possibility. Are there estimated better impact players by RPM who are free agents? Yes. Who would pick the Lakers? I dunno.

Either or both of the Morris twins? Unlikely if they spend really big on a star but would be good pickups.

Cousins.

There are a lot of potentially decent value options if they focus on team needs over big splash.

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Beverley to Lakers? Probably doesn't happen but both sides should at least consider it.

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I have decided I would not re-sign and keep Kemba. Sign n trade if it is worth it.

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Help me out. Can you name free agents in last 5-10 years coming off rookie contracts or a sub role that were paid $10 plus million per year on new deal who were not "sure things" at time of signing but turned out to be good value on that new deal? I am just starting to look.

My thesis is that you should not gamble on development or fit with $10 plus million per year contracts. I'd need to see a number of successful gambles on non-sure things to back off that stance. The negative cases are easier to recall.

Oladipo probably meets the criteria of not being a sure thing but working out well. Who else? Maybe Nurkic. Possibly Derrick Favors. Thaddeus Young.

Isn't that 5-10 or more times as many not sure thing guys paid 8 figures who didnt deliver good value? Paying based on starter minutes or projected starter minutes is a bad approach. Got to fight that, get more proof or give less pay / length.

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Might the Lakers go for Vucevic?

Irving?

They need almost everything, in terms of starters. Ball, Ingram, Kuzma are not close to what is needed yet. Maybe not soon or ever.