Early 2019-2020 season commentary

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Crow
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Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: Early 2019-2020 season commentary

Post by Crow » Wed Jul 10, 2019 2:07 am

Other interesting to try lineups could include

Wright Curry Finney Smith Doncic Porzingis
Barea Lee Doncic Kleber Powell
Wright Curry Doncic Kleber Porzingis
Wright Curry Finney Smith Doncic Kleber

Pick 20 to try regularly then focus more and more on the best performing.

Crow
Posts: 6188
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: Early 2019-2020 season commentary

Post by Crow » Wed Jul 10, 2019 7:49 pm

After 2 years of light use, Celtics waive Yabusele and will pay his 3rd year salary unless someone picks him up. It happens but not a scouting, management or coaching success for a just outside the lottery draft pick.

Ok boxscore stats, -2 on RPM last season.

Will he get a new NBA team this season?


Celtics first round draft picks since 2013:

Nogueira, hardly plays.
Smart. Picked 6th, 8th best career BPM in draft class.
Rozier. Picked 16th, 14th best career BPM in draft class and gone.
J Brown. Picked 3rd, 21st best career BPM in draft class.
Yabusele. Picked 16th, 16th best career BPM in draft class and gone.
Zizic Picked 23rd 27th best career BPM in draft class and gone.
Tatum Picked 3rd, 12th best career BPM in draft class.

No major overachiever by BPM. Two notable BPM underachievers, though they get a lot of praise.

RPM might look different. Minutes add another dimension.

Mike G
Posts: 4424
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Location: Asheville, NC

Re: Early 2019-2020 season commentary

Post by Mike G » Sat Jul 13, 2019 1:06 pm

Among 2018 rookies with at least 2500 minutes in 2 years, Jason Tatum is 7th in BPM (of 20) -- after Ben Simmons, Adebayo, Jarrett Allen, John Collins, Ball, and Mitchell.
http://bkref.com/tiny/rd4ph
BPM of only 0.1 does seem meager for a guy getting 30+ mpg with a contender. His 2-yr RPM is about 2.1 which is higher than any BPM but that of Simmons (previous draft).
Low-minutes players with high per-minute stats are only suspected of doing well in limited exposure.

What is the expectation for a #3 pick? Most of the time, they won't be a top 3 producer in their draft class? Is there a formula?
How often is the #1 pick shown to be the best pick? Since 2008, we find #1 Anthony Davis in 2012 barely edging #6 Damian Lillard in Win Shares, 72-70.
From 2015 it's KAT #1 pick and in WS to date. And that's it -- twice in 10 years.
http://bkref.com/tiny/yWreF

At some point, say #10, we may historically find a player 50% likely to rank in the top 10 of his class?
Of the top 100 career WS drafted in the '90s, 59 were picked 1 thru 10, 80 were in the top 20, all but 8 were top 30, 96 were top 40, and Ginobili was #57

Mike G
Posts: 4424
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Location: Asheville, NC

Re: Early 2019-2020 season commentary

Post by Mike G » Sat Jul 13, 2019 3:58 pm

I ranked all '90s draftees among their classmates by averaging their career rankings in Minutes, Win Shares, and total production (Pts+Reb+Ast+Stl+Blk)
For example, #24 pick of 1992, Latrell Sprewell, would end up #1 in his class in career RS minutes; #2 in total production; #4 in Win Shares; rank avg = 2.3

Then I smoothed out these ranks by averaging in plus and minus 2 positions. For example, the smoothed version of a #5 pick includes the median for #3, 4, 5, 6, and 7.
The expected career ranking within a class, based on player's draft# is :
exp = Pk*1.05 + 3.15

Code: Select all

Pk#   med  smooth   exp
1     3.3    3.3    4.2
2     5.3    4.9    5.3
3     6.8    5.6    6.3
4     6.3    6.9    7.4
5     3.5    8.4    8.4
6    17.2   11.6    9.5
7    11.7   12.6   10.5
8    16.0   13.0   11.6
9     8.5   12.1   12.6
10   11.2   13.8   13.7
...
15   15.8   19.1   18.9
...
20   27.7   25.5   24.2
...
25   32.2   27.3   29.4
...
30   31.0   33.7   34.7
http://bkref.com/tiny/2Dorn
Formula gives a slightly pessimistic outlook for #1 picks. The '90s had a couple of sure bets (Shaq, Duncan) and only one absolute bust (Kandi).
I went with medians rather than means so that such an outlier won't skew it too badly.

Crow
Posts: 6188
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: Early 2019-2020 season commentary

Post by Crow » Sat Jul 13, 2019 4:46 pm

Good work / info.

Crow
Posts: 6188
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: Early 2019-2020 season commentary

Post by Crow » Mon Jul 15, 2019 12:54 am

Some analysis of high usage 3 pt shooters here today https://twitter.com/bballstrategy under replies.

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