Predicting playoffs from days of rest records in regular season
Posted: Wed Apr 10, 2019 7:40 pm
Over here, Crow did an excellent summary of Western playoff teams' MOV in various states of rest between games.
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=9480&start=390
Zero days rest = back-to-back games. One day off between games is most common in RS: about 50 of 82 games, on avg.
As of yesterday, playoff teams' MOV with different days of rest:In playoffs, there are no b2b; and no rest over 2 days except between series.
Rather than discard data in the zero and 3+ columns, I've given them half-weight, multiplied by games, and rolled them in with the 1's and 2's respectively.
Last year, one day rest was about twice as common as 2 within a PO series. Series-opening games matter, though, so I'm giving equal weight to 0-1 day rest and 2+.
Here the PO column is just the avg of the first 2; RS is reg-sea MOV:The Bucks are mediocre in b2b, strong any other time.
Rockets are the opposite; dominant without rest, allergic to downtime
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=9480&start=390
Zero days rest = back-to-back games. One day off between games is most common in RS: about 50 of 82 games, on avg.
As of yesterday, playoff teams' MOV with different days of rest:
Code: Select all
DR : 0 1 2 3+
Mil 2.2 10.4 10.9 21.0
Tor 9.1 5.3 7.0 -2.7
Phl -7.3 5.7 3.5 4.0
Bos -4.9 6.1 3.4 13.0
Ind 5.5 -0.1 9.2 15.0
Brk -8.7 1.6 0.7 2.5
Orl -0.9 2.7 -2.7 -8.4
Det -1.0 -3.5 9.0 1.3
Cha -5.8 0.0 -3.3 6.7
avg -1.3 3.1 4.2 5.8
DR : 0 1 2 3+
GSW 3.7 7.6 5.1 21.5
Den 8.7 2.1 13.2 2.4
Hou 9.4 6.1 0.7 -8.3
Por 0.0 4.7 4.2 10.4
Uta -0.9 7.9 1.4 11.0
OKC 5.2 3.0 3.6 4.0
SAS -4.9 1.9 6.1 4.0
LAC -0.2 0.5 2.0 7.0
avg 2.6 4.2 4.5 6.5
Rather than discard data in the zero and 3+ columns, I've given them half-weight, multiplied by games, and rolled them in with the 1's and 2's respectively.
Last year, one day rest was about twice as common as 2 within a PO series. Series-opening games matter, though, so I'm giving equal weight to 0-1 day rest and 2+.
Here the PO column is just the avg of the first 2; RS is reg-sea MOV:
Code: Select all
east 0-1 2-3 PO RS
Mil 9.4 11.8 10.6 9.1
Tor 5.7 6.0 5.8 6.1
Phl 4.2 3.5 3.9 2.5
Bos 4.8 4.7 4.8 4.4
Ind 0.6 10.0 5.3 3.4
Brk 0.3 0.9 0.6 -0.3
Orl 2.2 -3.2 -0.5 0.6
Det -3.2 8.3 2.5 -0.6
Cha -0.8 -2.2 -1.5 -1.0
avg 2.6 4.4 3.5 2.8
west 0-1 2-3 PO RS
GSW 7.2 5.9 6.5 6.7
Den 2.8 9.6 6.2 4.0
Hou 6.4 -0.2 3.1 4.8
Por 4.3 4.9 4.6 4.2
Uta 6.9 2.3 4.6 5.4
OKC 3.2 3.6 3.4 3.3
SAS 1.1 5.9 3.5 1.6
LAC 0.4 2.3 1.3 0.8
avg 4.0 4.3 4.2 3.5
Rockets are the opposite; dominant without rest, allergic to downtime