2019 playoffs, West round 1

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Mike G
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Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Location: Asheville, NC

2019 playoffs, West round 1

Post by Mike G » Sun Apr 14, 2019 2:13 pm

Warriors 1, Clippers 0
121 - 104
Pythagorean wins .88 - .12, eWins .69 - .31

Code: Select all

eWins   per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.30   Stephen Curry    GS   37  .927   52.7  13.8   5.9    .0   4.0   .9   3.94
.13  Montrezl Harrell LAC   30  .684   31.0   5.6   1.7   2.3   1.3  2.3   2.15
.11   Kevin Durant     GS   32  .605   27.2   4.3   2.9   1.2   3.5  3.3   1.67
.10   Lou Williams    LAC   32  .568   24.7   3.2   7.3   1.1   2.4   .0   1.55
.08   Andre Iguodala   GS   26  .500    9.4   7.3   6.8   2.6    .0  3.8   1.55

.08   Draymond Green   GS   35  .680   20.1   6.8   6.3   1.0   6.3  1.0   1.11
.06  Shai G-Alexander LAC   34  .500   15.8   5.2    .8    .0   1.2  3.2    .83
.05  Danilo Gallinari LAC   30  .469   14.5   9.5    .9   3.7   4.1   .0    .83
.05   Kevon Looney     GS   17  .750   14.0   9.1   1.7   3.9   2.0  1.9   1.28
.03   Klay Thompson    GS   37  .414    9.0    .9   1.7   1.0    .0  2.8    .35

eWins   per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.02  DeMarcus Cousins  GS   21  .375   11.8  14.7   6.0   1.8  10.6   .0    .56
.01  Patrick Beverley LAC   31  .250    1.8   8.1   6.2   1.2   2.7   .0    .19
.01  Alfonzo McKinnie  GS    7  .750   15.7    .0    .0    .0    .0  4.3    .61
.01   JaMychal Green  LAC   25  .556   12.1   7.9    .0   1.4   4.6   .0    .14
.00   Ivica Zubac     LAC   10  .000     .0  14.3   2.8   3.7   8.3   .0   -.12

-.01  Wilson Chandler LAC    9  .500    5.7   3.5    .0    .0    .0   .0   -.28
-.01  Quinn Cook       GS   11  .250    3.1   5.5    .0    .0    .0   .0   -.34
-.02 Shaun Livingston  GS   12  .000     .0   5.0    .0    .0   2.7   .0   -.87
-.02  Landry Shamet   LAC   21  .250    2.6    .0   2.6   1.8   2.0   .0   -.50
-.02  Garrett Temple  LAC   12  .000     .0    .0    .0    .0   3.0  2.7   -.96
shooting: GS .599 - .495 LA
rebounds: GS 53 - 40 LA
turnovers: LAC 19 - 21 GS


Spurs 1, Nuggets 0
101 - 96
Pyth wins .66 - .34, eWins .58 - .42

Code: Select all

eWins  per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.13   Nikola Jokic   Den   36  .500   10.3  13.5  13.9   1.0   3.1   .0   1.75
.12   Bryn Forbes     SA   30  .833   29.4   5.9    .0    .0    .0   .0   1.88
.11   Gary Harris    Den   37  .690   25.4   2.8    .9    .0    .0  1.0   1.45
.11   Derrick White   SA   28  .696   32.1   3.8   7.4   1.3   5.3   .0   1.88
.11   DeMar DeRozan   SA   39  .429   15.7  10.8   6.9    .0   3.8   .9   1.32

.09   Will Barton    Den   32  .441   14.4  10.9   1.2    .0    .0  2.3   1.38
.09   Rudy Gay        SA   27  .778   28.3   7.2   1.4   1.3   3.8   .0   1.56
.05 LaMarcus Aldridge SA   34  .357   11.9   8.3   1.4   1.1    .0   .0    .72
.04  Marco Belinelli  SA   17  .400   12.6   7.3   4.6    .0    .0   .0   1.01
.04   Jakob Poeltl    SA   24  .600   10.9   8.9    .0   1.6    .0  1.6    .71

eWins  per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.04   Malik Beasley  Den   15  .667   28.2   6.0    .0    .0   4.3   .0   1.14
.03   Torrey Craig   Den   11  .600   18.6  10.6    .0    .0    .0   .0   1.21
.02   Mason Plumlee  Den   17  .400    6.0  10.7   5.6    .0    .0   .0    .68
.02   Patty Mills     SA   21  .667    8.5   3.0   5.5    .0    .0  1.6    .51
.02   Jamal Murray   Den   34  .347   12.7   2.0    .0   6.5   2.2   .0    .28

.01   Davis Bertans   SA   20  .714   11.7   1.6   3.7    .0    .0  1.6    .33
-.00  Paul Millsap   Den   34  .571   14.5   4.1   1.0    .0   3.3   .0   -.07
-.02   Monte Morris  Den   23  .167    1.0    .0   7.5   1.4    .0   .0   -.40
shooting: SA .543 - .480 Den
rebounds: SA 47 - 46 Den
turnovers: Den 10 - 11 SA

Crow
Posts: 6134
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: 2019 playoffs, West round 1

Post by Crow » Sun Apr 14, 2019 10:21 pm

Thunder game 1... super crappy outside shooting. Don't need to go further than that.

Never had enough shooting after Harden trade and Durant walk. Never prioritized it enough. All about length, toughness... acceptance of "OKC way" and deference Russ. Those two are intertwined but often conflicting.

Stars and role players are normal. But in OKC the divide may be greater than normal. Maybe too great.

But on to game 2... and the rest of the story.

Mike G
Posts: 4409
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Location: Asheville, NC

Re: 2019 playoffs, West round 1

Post by Mike G » Mon Apr 15, 2019 12:58 pm

Blazers 1, Thunder 0
104 - 99
Pyth wins .66 - .34, eWins .58 - .42

Code: Select all

eWins   per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.22   Enes Kanter     Por   34  .556   23.9  17.8   2.3   1.1   2.3  2.2   3.14
.18   Damian Lillard  Por   39  .600   33.5   3.4   3.8   2.8   5.9   .0   2.21
.17 Russell Westbrook OKC   38  .571   24.6   8.8   7.8    .0   3.9   .0   2.21
.11   Paul George     OKC   43  .481   20.5   7.7    .0   3.4   3.4   .0   1.21
.11   CJ McCollum     Por   37  .453   22.8   5.4   3.5    .0   3.1   .0   1.37

.10   Steven Adams    OKC   36  .567   18.3   8.4    .9   3.1   3.1   .0   1.29
.07   Nerlens Noel    OKC   12  .800   27.5  15.2    .0    .0    .0   .0   2.60
.05   Seth Curry      Por   16  .667   19.7    .0    .0   4.2    .0  2.1   1.53
.05   Al-Farouq Aminu Por   35  .625   12.3   6.7    .0    .0   2.2  3.2    .64
.03   Jerami Grant    OKC   35  .400    6.7   4.8    .0   1.1   1.1  4.2    .35

eWins   per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.02  Maurice Harkless Por   22  .200    1.9   9.4   2.0   1.7   1.8  5.2    .51
.02   Evan Turner     Por   16  .333    3.3   7.6   7.0   2.1   2.2   .0    .63
.02   Dennis Schroder OKC   36  .306    7.1   4.4   2.8   1.0    .0   .0    .27
.00 Terrance Ferguson OKC   16  .500    7.1   2.2   6.4   2.4   2.4   .0    .03
-.02  Rodney Hood     Por   22  .500    7.7   2.8   1.7    .0   1.6   .0   -.42

-.03  Markieff Morris OKC   13  .286    3.5   4.7   2.3    .0   5.2   .0  -1.17
-.04  Raymond Felton  OKC   11  .000     .0   2.8    .0    .0   3.0   .0  -1.71
-.04  Zach Collins    Por   14  1.00    7.9   2.2    .0    .0   5.1   .0  -1.43
shooting: Por .523 - .474 OKC
rebounds: OKC 49 - 48 Por
turnovers: OKC 16 - 19 Por


Rockets 1, Jazz 0
122 - 90
Pyth wins .98 - .02 , eWins .74 - .26

Code: Select all

eWins  per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast  Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.20   James Harden   Hou   33  .527   37.8   9.6  10.5   .0   4.1  1.1   2.93
.14   Rudy Gobert    Uta   34  .846   31.7  13.9    .9   .0   4.6  1.1   1.92
.12   Clint Capela   Hou   32  .615   23.4  14.8   2.2   .0   1.4  1.2   1.86
.10   Eric Gordon    Hou   31  .708   28.8   3.8   1.1   .0   1.4  2.4   1.51
.09   Kenneth Faried Hou   16  .917   39.0  13.3    .0   .0    .0   .0   2.56

.08   Chris Paul     Hou   32  .583   20.7   3.7   7.6  1.2   5.6  1.2   1.18
.08   P.J. Tucker    Hou   32  .688   17.5   4.9   3.3  2.3    .0   .0   1.16
.07   Derrick Favors Uta   24  .650   22.2  10.1   3.9  1.6   5.0  1.6   1.50
.07   Ricky Rubio    Uta   32  .577   16.7   3.7   5.7  2.3   2.5   .0   1.02
.04   Gerald Green   Hou   13  .643   29.8   5.4   2.4   .0    .0   .0   1.65

.04   Danuel House   Hou   25  .500   15.3   2.9   1.3  1.4    .0  1.4    .74
.02 Donovan Mitchell Uta   35  .487   16.7   5.6    .0  1.1   5.6   .0    .26
.01   Joe Ingles     Uta   32  .375    2.3   5.0   4.7  2.3   1.2   .0    .19
.00   Jae Crowder    Uta   20  .360    9.3   5.4    .0   .0    .0   .0    .12
.00   Austin Rivers  Hou   19  .571    8.4   1.9    .0  3.5   2.1   .0    .01

eWins  per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast  Stl   TO   Blk   e480
-.01  Raul Neto      Uta   11  .000     .0   6.4   2.4   .0    .0   .0   -.24
-.01  Kyle Korver    Uta   10  .667    6.6   3.5    .0   .0    .0   .0   -.27
-.01 Thabo Sefolosha Uta   15  .250    3.0   2.4   1.8   .0    .0   .0   -.34
-.02  Royce O'Neale  Uta   15  .200    1.7   7.1    .0   .0   2.3   .0   -.50
shooting: Hou .604 - .497 Utah
rebounds: Hou 42 - 41 Utah
turnovers: Hou 12 - 19 Utah

eminence
Posts: 132
Joined: Sun Sep 10, 2017 8:20 pm

Re: 2019 playoffs, West round 1

Post by eminence » Mon Apr 15, 2019 8:18 pm

Let us never again speak of the 'defense' Utah played last night. As a Jazz fan I pray to all things holy I don't have to see it again this series.

Mike G
Posts: 4409
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Location: Asheville, NC

Re: 2019 playoffs, West round 1

Post by Mike G » Tue Apr 16, 2019 1:30 pm

Warriors 1, Clippers 1
avg score 126.0 - 119.5
Pyth wins 1.34 - .66, eWins 1.17 - .83

Code: Select all

eWins   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.40   Stephen Curry    GS   36  .788   36.8   8.7   5.7   1.5   4.1   .5   2.71
.27   Lou Williams    LAC   32  .622   30.1   2.9   8.2   1.6   4.1   .5   2.05
.26  Montrezl Harrell LAC   32  .785   29.0   8.9   1.6   1.1   1.8  1.1   2.00
.17   Kevin Durant     GS   34  .667   23.3   5.2   3.7   2.2   6.5  2.1   1.24
.15  Danilo Gallinari LAC   32  .542   18.1   7.3   3.0   2.9   3.7   .0   1.14

.15   Draymond Green   GS   36  .660   15.0   5.4   7.0   1.5   5.1  1.4    .99
.14   Kevon Looney     GS   18  .893   25.6   9.7    .8   1.8    .9   .9   1.89
.11   Andre Iguodala   GS   26  .531    9.1   7.0   6.2   1.3   1.3  1.9    .99
.08   JaMychal Green  LAC   20  .719   18.6  11.6    .6   1.7   4.5   .0    .99
.08   Klay Thompson    GS   35  .527   12.0   2.2   1.8   1.6    .0  1.5    .57

eWins   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.07   Andrew Bogut     GS   10  .667    9.2  17.3   4.2    .0    .0  3.1   1.65
.06  Shai G-Alexander LAC   33  .478    8.9   3.0   2.5   2.2   1.2  1.6    .43
.05  DeMarcus Cousins  GS   13  .393   10.8  16.4   6.1   1.4   8.4   .0    .88
.03  Patrick Beverley LAC   32  .433    5.2   5.6   5.3   1.2   2.5   .0    .19
.02   Quinn Cook       GS   13  .591   14.2   4.0   1.1   1.3   2.5   .0    .36

.01   Landry Shamet   LAC   27  .500    7.8   2.9   2.6   2.1   2.2   .0    .07
-.01  Wilson Chandler LAC   10  .400    4.3   5.3   1.2   1.6   1.8   .0   -.15
-.01  Ivica Zubac     LAC   10  .250    1.8  11.8   1.4   1.8   5.9   .0   -.26
-.01  Garrett Temple  LAC   11  .438    6.8   1.5    .0   1.4   1.5  1.4   -.25
-.02 Shaun Livingston  GS   12  .353    4.8   4.2    .0    .0   2.6  2.5   -.36
shooting: GS .635 - .582 LA
rebounds: GS 45.5 - 37.0 LA
turnovers: LA 19.5 - 21.5 GS

Crow
Posts: 6134
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: 2019 playoffs, West round 1

Post by Crow » Wed Apr 17, 2019 5:08 am

Westbrook, 14 points of 27 possessions used tonight.

Team sucks from 3 point land again.

Starters get smashed again.

Mike G
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Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Location: Asheville, NC

Re: 2019 playoffs, West round 1

Post by Mike G » Wed Apr 17, 2019 12:39 pm

Nuggets 1 , Spurs 1
avg score 105 - 103
Pyth wins 1.13 - .87, eWins 1.06 - .94

Code: Select all

eWins  per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast  Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.32   Nikola Jokic   Den   38  .554   15.6  12.5  10.7  1.5   3.1   .0   2.04
.31   DeMar DeRozan   SA   36  .551   26.2   9.3   4.1  1.0   2.6   .5   2.09
.22   Gary Harris    Den   36  .694   25.7   3.9   1.0   .0    .0   .5   1.48
.16 LaMarcus Aldridge SA   36  .424   16.7   8.0   2.2   .5    .5   .0   1.09
.15   Derrick White   SA   30  .702   25.9   4.1   3.0   .6   4.3   .6   1.22

.15   Jamal Murray   Den   36  .456   18.4   2.0   2.2  3.6   1.1   .0   1.00
.14   Paul Millsap   Den   32  .667   21.7   6.1   1.1   .6   2.5   .6   1.02
.09   Bryn Forbes     SA   28  .667   15.4   5.7   2.0   .7    .7   .0    .80
.07   Will Barton    Den   29  .310    7.2   9.2   2.8   .0    .0  1.3    .62
.06   Jakob Poeltl    SA   23  .500    8.4  11.1    .9   .8    .8  2.5    .65

eWins  per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast  Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.06   Malik Beasley  Den   19  .621   17.2   5.0   2.6   .0   1.8   .0    .73
.05   Rudy Gay        SA   28  .514   11.5   8.9   2.6   .6   3.1   .0    .46
.05   Monte Morris   Den   24  .394    7.2    .7   8.2  1.4    .0   .0    .52
.04  Marco Belinelli  SA   20  .516   12.5   3.9   2.5   .0    .0   .0    .51
.04   Patty Mills     SA   21  .563    7.4   3.8   6.5   .0    .8   .8    .43

.03   Mason Plumlee  Den   19  .444    6.0   9.3   4.5   .0    .9   .9    .45
.02   Torrey Craig   Den    9  .600   10.8   6.6   1.7   .0    .0   .0    .44
.01   Davis Bertans   SA   18  .533    7.0   5.2   2.8   .0    .0   .9    .14
shooting: SA .538 - .520 Den
rebounds: SA 48.5 - 43.5 Den
turnovers: Den 8.0 - 10.5 SA


Blazers 2 , Thunder 0
avg score 109.0 - 96.5
Pyth wins 1.67 - .33, eWins 1.33 - .67

Code: Select all

eWins   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.47   Damian Lillard  Por   38  .596   36.4   3.7   5.4   3.0   4.1  1.0   3.03
.41   CJ McCollum     Por   37  .553   33.9   6.7   4.6    .5   3.1   .0   2.72
.23   Enes Kanter     Por   27  .542   20.6  14.9   1.6    .7   2.8  1.4   2.00
.22   Paul George      OK   42  .541   23.3   7.4   1.1   2.2   4.0   .0   1.28
.22 Russell Westbrook  OK   38  .447   16.4   8.7   9.0    .5   4.9   .0   1.39

.19   Steven Adams     OK   34  .647   20.4   9.3    .9   2.2   2.8   .0   1.37
.13  Maurice Harkless Por   25  .533   13.0  10.5    .9   1.5    .8  3.0   1.26
.12   Nerlens Noel     OK   14  .727   21.1  14.0    .0   1.2    .0  1.2   2.15
.10  Al-Farouq Aminu  Por   29  .500   11.0   6.6   2.2   1.9   1.3  1.9    .85
.09    Seth Curry     Por   18  .773   21.6    .0   1.0   1.8    .0   .9   1.23

eWins   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.03  Markieff Morris   OK   14  .529   10.3   6.5   3.0    .0   2.3  2.3    .52
-.00  Dennis Schroder  OK   29  .360    7.7   3.3   2.7    .6    .6   .0   -.02
-.00   Meyers Leonard Por   10  .500    9.3   5.8    .0    .0    .0   .0   -.07
-.01   Zach Collins   Por   14  .667   12.3   5.3    .0   1.1   5.8  3.4   -.16
-.01   Jerami Grant    OK   33  .325    4.8   4.8    .0    .6    .6  2.9   -.09

-.03   Evan Turner    Por   14  .200    1.3   7.4   3.9   1.1   3.5   .0   -.48
-.05 Terrance Ferguson OK   24  .417    6.3   2.9   2.1    .8   1.6   .0   -.52
-.05   Raymond Felton  OK   13  .083     .3   1.1   2.1   2.4   2.4  1.2   -.97
-.05   Rodney Hood    Por   24  .375    5.4   1.3   2.5    .0    .7   .0   -.54
shooting: Por .545 - .472 OK
rebounds: OK 48.0 - 46.0 Por
turnovers: Por 15.5 - 16.0 OK

Crow
Posts: 6134
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: 2019 playoffs, West round 1

Post by Crow » Wed Apr 17, 2019 2:00 pm

By the end or by end of first or second round, it might be interesting to see playoff values- playoff wins / salary.

Crow
Posts: 6134
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: 2019 playoffs, West round 1

Post by Crow » Wed Apr 17, 2019 2:54 pm

Rockets with 2nd best offensive rating in playoffs. 4th best defensive rating. Warriors with 5th best OR. No other western team with a showing in either top 5 so far. Nuggets and Blazers have 6th place rankings in OR and DR respectively.

Thunder, 11th on offense, 7th on defense.

Jazz with worst offensive and defensive marks in west for first game.

Clippers join Jazz, Pistons and Magic as only other team below average ranked on both offensive and defensive efficiency. Spurs and Thunder barely avoid joining that list.

Mike G
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Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Location: Asheville, NC

Re: 2019 playoffs, West round 1

Post by Mike G » Wed Apr 17, 2019 3:10 pm

Crow wrote:
Wed Apr 17, 2019 5:08 am
Westbrook, 14 points of 27 possessions used tonight...
Without consideration of his 48.6 Ast%, that's pretty bad.
His TS% (.454) is 5th best on the team and just below the team's TS%. The other 2 PG are shooting .365 and .085 .
He has 21 Ast in 75 min, while Schroder and Felton total 7 Ast in 83 min.

Here are OKC 2-game total 2's and 3's made and attempted, and the numbers that were Assisted:

Code: Select all

. OKC     2fg  2a  3fg 3a   2as 3as
Westbrook  12  27   1  10     2   0
George     13  22   6  22     4   5
Adams      15  22   0   0    13   
Noel        8  11   0   0     5   
Schroder    7  14   0   8     2   
Grant       3   7   0   8     2   
Ferguson    2   5   2   7     2   2
Morris      1   4   1   2     0   1
Felton      0   2   0   3      
After Westbrook, George, Adams, and Noel, the team is .107 from the arc and .406 inside it.

Here are RW shots selected and made, by distance:

Code: Select all

dist    FG FGA
0 - 3   10  16
3 -10    2   6
10-16    0   2
16-23    0   3
24+      1  10
T       13  37
Paul George has 3 assists in 83 min.

Crow
Posts: 6134
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: 2019 playoffs, West round 1

Post by Crow » Wed Apr 17, 2019 3:51 pm

That is useful additional detail.

In general I credit assisted baskets mainly to the scorer but it can vary.

All Thunder starters strongly negative plus minus on the court. George at -8, the rest including Westbrook over -20. Westbrook with the worst raw on / off at nearly -40. George's on / off is almost plus 50.

By playoff BPM George and Westbrook are average impact / neutral players. Adams, team best. Ferguson, Grant, Schroder, roughly twice as bad as an average replacement level player.

Westbrook's TS% is 5th best of a team with many performing poorly. Overall he is 119th of 197.

Crow
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Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: 2019 playoffs, West round 1

Post by Crow » Wed Apr 17, 2019 4:42 pm

Thunder as team shooting 16.4% from 3 is by far worst in playoffs. Will see where it ends up.

Thunder, Warriors and Clippers getting called for most fouls. Bucks least. Spurs 3rd least.

Celtics, Sixers, Warriors and Bucks with huge total rebound advantages.

Mike G
Posts: 4409
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Location: Asheville, NC

Re: 2019 playoffs, West round 1

Post by Mike G » Thu Apr 18, 2019 1:30 pm

Rockets 2 , Jazz 0
avg score 120 - 94
Pyth wins 1.92 - .08, eWins 1.46 - .54

Code: Select all

eWins   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast  Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.50   James Harden    Hou   33  .565   40.1  11.7  14.6   .0   6.6  1.1   3.60
.21   Clint Capela    Hou   31  .622   16.5  13.1   2.3   .6   1.3  2.4   1.60
.20   Rudy Gobert     Uta   33  .733   20.4  13.6    .8  1.1   2.4   .6   1.49
.19   Derrick Favors  Uta   23  .643   22.0  14.6   1.9  1.6   3.4  3.3   2.01
.18   Chris Paul      Hou   30  .596   23.5   4.3   7.8  1.9   6.7  1.9   1.45

.17   P.J. Tucker     Hou   33  .794   21.2   4.5   2.1  2.3    .6   .0   1.26
.17   Eric Gordon     Hou   31  .702   26.0   2.4    .7  1.2   1.3  1.8   1.36
.16   Ricky Rubio     Uta   32  .516   16.3   4.1   6.9  3.5   2.4   .0   1.24
.14   Kenneth Faried  Hou   17  .818   25.5  12.7   1.2  1.0    .0   .0   2.01
.05   Danuel House    Hou   24  .500   13.6   4.2    .9   .7    .8  1.4    .56

eWins   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast  Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.04   Gerald Green    Hou   12  .571   18.4   2.7   1.7   .0    .0  1.4    .82
.02   Royce O'Neale   Uta   21  .633   14.7   3.9   2.4   .8   3.3   .0    .26
.02   Jae Crowder     Uta   20  .326    7.0   8.4    .7   .8    .0   .0    .26
.01   Georges Niang   Uta    8  .583   13.8   8.2   4.8   .0   4.3   .0    .47
.01   Grayson Allen   Uta    7  .429   14.5   2.2    .0   .0    .0   .0    .25

.00   Joe Ingles      Uta   32  .417    4.2   2.9   3.2  4.1   1.8   .0    .02
-.01  Austin Rivers   Hou   20  .480    9.8   1.6   1.0  1.6    .9   .0   -.06
-.01  Thabo Sefolosha Uta   12  .167    1.5   6.6   2.1   .0    .0   .0   -.23
-.02  Raul Neto       Uta    8  .200    1.6   3.9   1.5   .0    .0   .0   -.50
-.02  Kyle Korver     Uta    7  .286    2.5   4.7    .0   .0    .0   .0   -.68

eWins   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast  Stl   TO   Blk   e480
-.02  Iman Shumpert   Hou    9  .000     .0   1.8   2.3   .0    .0   .0   -.66
-.03 Donovan Mitchell Uta   36  .380   10.7   3.1   2.6  1.5   4.8   .0   -.18
shooting: Hou .612 - .476 Uta
rebounds: Uta 44.5 - 44.0 Hou
turnovers: Hou 15.0 - 15.5 Uta

Crow
Posts: 6134
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: 2019 playoffs, West round 1

Post by Crow » Thu Apr 18, 2019 8:50 pm

Adams is alright but not $24 million dollars for the season alright. He is a role player. The role has never meaningfully expanded (just minutes) and he is content to live within it. Might have ability to do more. Maybe we see it on a few years. On new era Thunder or elsewhere.

Crow
Posts: 6134
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: 2019 playoffs, West round 1

Post by Crow » Thu Apr 18, 2019 9:07 pm

2 bigger minute Favors - Gobert lineups kicked the Rockets in regular season but are getting beat on playoffs along with most everything else.

Spend a whole season dinking around and they have only two lineups tested for over 2 minutes per game for season. They are both doing terrible now too.

Keeping trying and / or try something else? That choice must be made now. Put themselves in this information bind. Now it is up to coaching intuition and / or analytics to find a way out.

Hoopsstats data tips show that the only steady ways you beat the Rockets are to outperform them at Moreyball. For more specific tips, look at the multiple wins by Mavs, Clips, Bucks and TWolves. Find the lineups that did it. Consider lineups similar to those. I could do it...

One lineup that did well overall and from a Moreyball perspective in the regular season was J. Crowder | R. Gobert | K. Korver | D. Mitchell | R. O'Neale, Their #3 most used lineup. Has been used less than 3 minutes in playoffs. No surprise, barely used in regular season. Les than 2 minutes per game. Give it 5-10 minutes and see what happens? Got better idea?

Playoff pair data shows Favors, Ingles, Mitchell and ONeale are in the best though still bad pairs. Most of the big minute pairs are doing horrendous. No playoff lineup with all 4 has played more than 3 minutes. I'd try that a bunch too.

Snyder has used 40 lineups and 83% of them have been non-positive performers. Not genius results.

Of the 7 positive lineups, Ingles is in 6, Favors 6, O"Neale 4, Mitchell 3, Crowder 3, Rubio 2, Thabo 2, Korver 2, Niang 2, Gobert 1, Allen and Neto 1 each. I might play all 7 positive lineups more. And other lineups with the top 7 guys within these 7 lineups. If you can do it with greater insight and greater precision, do it. They didn't do it to date.

Between these ideas you have probably in excess of a dozen of lineup ideas. Study them, pick from them, organize them and go. Yeah, there is a lot of noise in this thin data. They created the super-super-thin playoff data and the thin regular season data. Could have concentrated way more. Deal with it.

Or keep doing basically the same. Their choice.

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