2019 Finals: Warriors - Raptors

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Mike G
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Re: 2019 Finals: Warriors - Raptors

Post by Mike G » Mon Jun 10, 2019 2:36 pm

From the previous tables:
Klay Thompson is having his best series of this postseason, even having missed a game.
Draymond, Cook, Bell, Looney, and McKinnie are all having their worst series. Most of those (and Cousins) are arguably doing nothing or worse. Yes, that's harsh; but bad is bad. Not a good trade-off.

For Toronto, Lowry and Powell are struggling; and everyone else is at or near the best they've been in these playoffs.
Gasol's effectiveness has been inversely proportional to his minutes. Their 4 'bigs' total 128 effective mpg, taking pressure off the backcourt.

Mike G
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Re: 2019 Finals: Warriors - Raptors

Post by Mike G » Tue Jun 11, 2019 10:43 am

Raptors 3 , Warriors 2
avg score 111 - 105
Pyth wins 3.38 - 1.62 , eWins 2.94 - 2.06

Code: Select all

eWins  per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
1.08  Kawhi Leonard  Tor   40  .596   27.9  10.6   4.0   1.8   3.1  1.1   2.57
.80   Stephen Curry   GS   42  .593   26.0   5.3   4.5   1.2   2.7   .0   1.85
.50   Pascal Siakam  Tor   39  .525   16.6   7.1   3.8    .4   1.4   .6   1.23
.45   Marc Gasol     Tor   29  .651   18.7   9.7   3.1    .8   1.6   .5   1.47
.44   Klay Thompson   GS   31  .658   22.5   4.8   2.6    .5   1.0   .0   1.36

.38   Draymond Green  GS   41  .538   10.0   9.0   7.2   1.3   4.3   .7    .90
.34   Kyle Lowry     Tor   37  .504   12.9   3.7   6.8   1.4   2.5   .6    .87
.33   Serge Ibaka    Tor   19  .609   18.7  10.5   1.4   1.7   2.6  3.3   1.67
.19   Andre Iguodala  GS   31  .434    5.9   6.4   4.9   1.4   2.0  1.9    .57
.18   Fred VanVleet  Tor   32  .579   13.1   3.3   2.9   1.3   1.1   .0    .54

eWins  per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.15 DeMarcus Cousins  GS   18  .487   12.4   9.8   4.4   1.6   5.5  1.9    .83
.09   Danny Green    Tor   29  .537   10.6   5.6   1.1   1.5   1.9   .7    .31
.07   Kevin Durant    GS    2  .917   39.1   6.6    .0    .0   3.3  3.0   2.60
.06   Andrew Bogut    GS    8  .857    9.7  10.9   2.0    .7   1.6   .7    .67
.03   Jonas Jerebko   GS    5  .438   12.8   6.6   1.1    .0    .0   .0    .59

.02   Jordan Bell     GS    5  .750    7.4   6.5   1.1    .0    .0  2.4    .40
.01  Shaun Livingston GS   16  .478    7.1   3.9   3.4   1.2   1.8   .4    .09
-.01  Quinn Cook      GS   15  .500    9.1   1.8   1.9    .4    .9   .4   -.08
-.02  Norman Powell  Tor   11  .458    5.2   3.0   2.3   1.1    .6   .0   -.15
-.02  Kevon Looney    GS   15  .605    8.7   5.9    .8    .4   1.8   .0   -.14
-.06 Alfonzo McKinnie GS    9  .394    5.8   4.8   1.2    .0   2.1   .0   -.57
shooting: Tor .567 - .558 GS
rebounds: Tor 41.2 - 40.0 GS
turnovers: Tor 13.0 - 16.6 GS

Mike G
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Re: 2019 Finals: Warriors - Raptors

Post by Mike G » Wed Jun 12, 2019 4:45 am

Other stats.
Durant Win Shares must have gone south with the team going 1-3. His WS/48 was .218 coming into the Finals and .208 after his 12 fab minutes.

Code: Select all

xyz    Dubs   min   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480     WS   vorp   eW
.79   Curry   209   23.2   .180   6.1   1.85    .78   .42   .80
.43  Thompson 156   19.4   .133   3.6   1.36    .43   .22   .44
.32   Green   203   12.0   .052   2.1    .83    .22   .21   .35
.20  Iguodala 156    9.9   .029   2.4    .57    .09   .17   .19
.10   Bogut    42   15.6   .158   3.0    .67    .14   .05   .06

.05   Bell     26   14.7   .140   2.8    .40    .08   .03   .02
.04   Cousins  89   10.5  -.024  -1.9    .83   -.04   .00   .15
.03   Durant   12   26.8  -.150   8.4   2.60   -.04   .03   .07
.01   Jerebko  24   14.0   .051  -4.0    .59    .03  -.01   .03
.01  Liv'ston  81    9.4   .037  -3.4    .09    .06  -.03   .01

xyz    Dubs   min    PER  WS/48   BPM   e480     WS   vorp   eW
-.02  Looney   77    7.5   .009  -3.6   -.14    .01  -.03  -.02
-.04  Cook     75    7.3   .002  -4.9   -.08    .00  -.05  -.01
-.10  McKinnie 47   -1.0  -.125  -7.8   -.57   -.12  -.07  -.06

1.82  totals  1197  13.5   .064   1.1    .67   1.60   .92  1.67
Steph and Klay are great, and half the team has sucked.

Do the Raptors great 8 get tired before this is over?

Code: Select all

xyz    Raps   min   PER   WS/48  BPM   e480    WS   vorp   eW
1.06  Leonard 202   27.4  .238   9.7   2.57   1.00   .59  1.08
.53   Gasol   146   17.6  .219   5.0   1.47    .66   .25   .45
.40  VanVleet 161   15.3  .169   3.9    .54    .57   .24   .18
.37   Lowry   187   13.4  .103   2.1    .87    .40   .19   .34
.35   Siakam  194   14.8  .083   0.5   1.23    .34   .12   .50

.35   Ibaka    94   22.7  .207   5.4   1.67    .41   .17   .33
.15   Green   145    8.1  .032   1.8    .31    .10   .14   .09
.00   Powell   55    8.2  .058  -3.6   -.15    .07  -.02  -.02
3.21         1184   16.6  .143   3.6   1.18   3.58  1.67  2.94

Crow
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Re: 2019 Finals: Warriors - Raptors

Post by Crow » Wed Jun 12, 2019 6:13 am

Dubs getting virtually nothing from bench. I'll again say they probably should be criticized for doing too little about that. And for more than just big men.

Crow
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Re: 2019 Finals: Warriors - Raptors

Post by Crow » Wed Jun 12, 2019 9:47 am

Tough news for Durant. Really affects a lot of things. Hope and assume he'll eventually come back strong. What he give in game 5 was enough to help win that game and maybe save the series.

Athletes are fragile. Basketball players are at risk but the pay compensates for the risk.

Mike G
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Re: 2019 Finals: Warriors - Raptors

Post by Mike G » Wed Jun 12, 2019 11:40 am

Crow wrote:
Wed Jun 12, 2019 6:13 am
Dubs getting virtually nothing from bench. I'll again say they probably should be criticized for doing too little about that. And for more than just big men.
They should have had more than 5 recent all-NBA and all-stars on their team? Or they should have only injury-proof all-NBA players?
If they weren't the most stacked team in NBA history coming in, they certainly were the most over-talented in the league, yet again. Iggy and Livingston off the bench, plus Looney, McKinnie, Bell, Cook, Jerebko ... was the envy of the league until guys started getting hurt.
These same guys were great in previous round(s).

eminence
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Re: 2019 Finals: Warriors - Raptors

Post by eminence » Wed Jun 12, 2019 4:00 pm

Using the Cousins money on a decent wing would've likely been the better option there. Outside of that though I don't see too many different moves the Warriors could've made.

Crow
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Re: 2019 Finals: Warriors - Raptors

Post by Crow » Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:04 am

This is a crude boxscore approach

http://www.hoopsstats.com/basketball/fa ... iffeff/1-1

but the Warrior's bench ranked 12th on efficiency differential (rs + playoffs) and is the second lowest on points scored.

Crow
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Re: 2019 Finals: Warriors - Raptors

Post by Crow » Fri Jun 14, 2019 3:55 am

Close game.

But for series (at least before tonight) Raptors were far more likely to be successful in top lineups than the Warriors and the Warriors used way more dink lineups.

eminence
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Re: 2019 Finals: Warriors - Raptors

Post by eminence » Fri Jun 14, 2019 4:00 am

Yeah, I generally didn't feel great about Kerr's coaching in this one at all. Bit bummed no game 7, but a good game to close it out.

Crow
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Re: 2019 Finals: Warriors - Raptors

Post by Crow » Fri Jun 14, 2019 5:03 am

Before tonight, the Raptors were ahead on all four factors and only one was close. Tonight's game won't change any of these (I don't think).

Crow
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Re: 2019 Finals: Warriors - Raptors

Post by Crow » Fri Jun 14, 2019 5:06 am

So which teams interviewed Nick Nurse for head coach before the Raptors did?

I am assuming the the Rockets never did, though they had employed him in a lower position in the past. Along with almost everyone else. He probably interviewed for the Pistons job. Looks like the Magic passed.

Dwane Casey: "When we hired (Nurse) in Toronto, he had never had an NBA interview"
https://clutchpoints.com/pistons-news-d ... g-for-him/



Three straight first time in the finals coaches win the NBA finals.

Mike G
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Re: 2019 Finals: Warriors - Raptors

Post by Mike G » Fri Jun 14, 2019 11:31 am

Raptors 4 , Warriors 2
avg score 111.5 - 105.8
Pyth wins 4.00 - 2.00, eWins 3.50 - 2.50

Code: Select all

eWins  per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
1.23  Kawhi Leonard  Tor   41  .590   25.8   9.8   3.7   1.8   2.9  1.0   2.42
.91   Stephen Curry   GS   42  .585   23.8   4.9   4.6   1.3   2.7   .1   1.74
.67   Pascal Siakam  Tor   40  .553   17.3   7.4   3.4    .5   1.5   .6   1.35
.63   Klay Thompson   GS   31  .699   24.8   5.1   2.1    .8   1.3   .0   1.61
.54   Kyle Lowry     Tor   38  .542   14.7   4.2   6.9   1.6   2.6   .5   1.14

.53   Draymond Green  GS   41  .532    9.4  10.5   7.5   1.5   4.8   .9   1.03
.45   Marc Gasol     Tor   29  .600   15.2  10.2   3.4    .6   1.6   .4   1.26
.37   Serge Ibaka    Tor   19  .602   18.5   9.2   1.6   1.4   2.3  2.6   1.52
.26   Andre Iguodala  GS   31  .495    8.6   5.7   4.2   1.2   1.9  1.7    .66
.24   Fred VanVleet  Tor   33  .600   14.5   3.1   2.3   1.2   1.1   .0    .60

eWins  per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.20 DeMarcus Cousins  GS   18  .485   12.5   9.5   3.9   1.3   4.4  1.8    .89
.07   Danny Green    Tor   27  .537    9.1   5.2   1.6   1.6   1.9   .7    .20
.06   Kevin Durant    GS    2  .917   37.3   6.4    .0    .0   3.2  2.9   2.54
.04   Andrew Bogut    GS    8  .750    7.7  10.3   1.7    .6   1.4   .6    .43
.02   Jonas Jerebko   GS    4  .438   10.7   5.7    .9    .0    .0   .0    .32

.02   Jordan Bell     GS    4  .750    6.9   6.2   1.0    .0    .0  2.2    .32
-.00  Patrick McCaw  Tor    2  .750    7.2    .0   4.2    .0    .0   .0   -.05
-.01 Shaun Livingston GS   16  .500    7.3   3.2   2.6   1.3   1.8   .3   -.06
-.02  Kevon Looney    GS   17  .558    7.8   5.5   1.7    .6   1.7   .3   -.07
-.05  Quinn Cook      GS   15  .483    7.7   1.9   1.5    .3    .7   .3   -.27

eWins  per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
-.07  Norman Powell  Tor   11  .393    3.7   2.9   1.8    .9    .9   .0   -.48
-.08 Alfonzo McKinnie GS   10  .371    4.3   5.4    .9    .0   1.6   .0   -.68
shooting: Tor .571 - .561 GS
rebounds: Tor 40.8 - 40.3 GS
turnovers: Tor 12.8 - 16.7 GS

Other stats

Code: Select all

Dubs    mpg   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480    WS   vorp   eW
Curry    42   22.1   .161   5.6   1.74    .84   .48   .91
Green    41   12.9   .043   3.0   1.03    .22   .31   .53
Iguodala 31   11.4   .037   2.1    .66    .15   .19   .26
Thompson 31   21.9   .173   5.2   1.61    .68   .34   .63
Cousins  18   12.0   .005  -1.7    .89    .01   .01   .20

Looney   17    8.7   .018  -1.4   -.07    .04   .01  -.02
Liv'ston 16    9.2   .025  -3.8   -.06    .05  -.04  -.01
Cook     15    6.0  -.012  -5.3   -.27   -.02  -.07  -.05
McKinnie 10   -0.3  -.104  -7.2   -.68   -.12  -.07  -.08
Bogut     8   13.7   .120   1.1    .43    .11   .04   .04

Jerebko   4   12.8   .032  -4.8    .32    .02  -.02   .02
Bell      4   14.7   .132   2.4    .32    .07   .03   .02
Durant    2   26.8  -.224   4.7   2.54   -.06   .02   .06

totals  240   14.0   .065   1.3    .83   1.94  1.18  2.50
BPM adjusts to the level of competition, and the other stats do not. Warriors therefore look like a below avg team -- and they were below avg for the series -- except in BPM which shows them at +1.3, equivalent to a 44-38 RS team.
Raptors played like a 51-31 team.

Code: Select all

Raps    min   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480    WS   vorp   eW
Leonard  41   25.6   .217   8.0   2.42   1.10   .61  1.23
Siakam   40   16.3   .107   1.6   1.35    .53   .22   .67
Lowry    38   16.0   .138   3.9   1.14    .66   .34   .54
VanVleet 33   15.9   .172   4.1    .60    .70   .30   .24
Gasol    29   15.8   .183   3.7   1.26    .66   .24   .45

Green    27    7.6   .027   1.7    .20    .09   .15   .07
Ibaka    19   22.1   .190   4.8   1.52    .46   .20   .37
Powell   11    4.0  -.005  -6.4   -.48   -.01  -.07  -.07
McCaw     2   13.2   .151  -3.7   -.05    .04  -.01  -.00

totals  240   16.6   .141   3.5   1.17   4.23  1.97  3.50

Crow
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Re: 2019 Finals: Warriors - Raptors

Post by Crow » Fri Jun 14, 2019 4:53 pm

Depending on how much you like what ifs, it would be possible to adjust the metric team sums for injury absences, at least for first order effects, to guess how much difference that would have made.



Separate comment

By BPM over 3 the Raptors big 5 performers (with Siakam not performing at that level) beat the the Warriors big 3 (with Durant as an extra only in a cameo).

Crow
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Re: 2019 Finals: Warriors - Raptors

Post by Crow » Fri Jun 14, 2019 5:22 pm

5 of the 7 most used Warriors lineups were negative for this series. 2 moderately bad, 3 awful to horrendous.

76 lineups used in 6 games. Only 26% cumulatively positive.

Not a single lineup used in every game and only 5 used in 4 or more games. 55 lineups used in just a single game. 84% of lineups would qualify as dink lineups (less than 1 minute per game for series).

The biggest minute lineup was moderately bad. It dd well in the previous rounds and Looney was hurt.

Somehow they made it close. But in a lot of ways it wasn't.

Were lineups managed well? Overall, I'd say no.

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