Per Game vs Per Minute?

Home for all your discussion of basketball statistical analysis.
Post Reply
vzografos
Posts: 23
Joined: Thu Sep 06, 2018 10:42 am

Per Game vs Per Minute?

Post by vzografos » Fri Jun 14, 2019 10:12 pm

So I am looking at Player stats (from stats.nba.com) and I was wondering what would be the best stats to train my model on, considering that I want to avoid statistic lag (this is the time it takes until average statistics of a player stabilitse in the season), which causes a lower prediction accuracy early in the season.

Per Minute stats or Per Game stats? They are both averages but they have different granularity.

I think per-minute stats might be more refined but maybe more susceptible to noise. The opposite holds for per-game stats.

What do you guys think?

Mike G
Posts: 4424
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Location: Asheville, NC

Re: Per Game vs Per Minute?

Post by Mike G » Sat Jun 15, 2019 3:40 pm

It's popular these days to go per-possession or per 100 (or 200 if you count defensive).
But possessions are estimated and/or averaged, or for whatever reason different for team and opponent; and some things -- turnovers? -- probably are more minute-related than possession related.

"Per 36 minutes" has become sort of a standard, as it's about normal for starting players, when needed, as in close games. Most players can do this when called upon, and most players' production rates decline after that, per minute.

vzografos
Posts: 23
Joined: Thu Sep 06, 2018 10:42 am

Re: Per Game vs Per Minute?

Post by vzografos » Sat Jun 15, 2019 5:50 pm

Mike G wrote:
Sat Jun 15, 2019 3:40 pm
It's popular these days to go per-possession or per 100 (or 200 if you count defensive).
But possessions are estimated and/or averaged, or for whatever reason different for team and opponent; and some things -- turnovers? -- probably are more minute-related than possession related.

"Per 36 minutes" has become sort of a standard, as it's about normal for starting players, when needed, as in close games. Most players can do this when called upon, and most players' production rates decline after that, per minute.
Ok thanks for the info. I''ve noticed that stats.nba has those different variations (per 36, per 100 pos even minutes per) so I can try them out and see what works best.

Post Reply