ULTIMATE GOAT LIST (Neutralized Stats) updated through 2019 postseason

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ULTIMATE GOAT LIST (Neutralized Stats) updated through 2019 postseason

Post by D-rell » Sun Jul 07, 2019 3:10 am


In the link column G-J ranks each player according to their individually estimated contribution, or Total Value Share. Column L-O ranks each player according to their value shares per game (Total Value Share/Calculated Game). Column A-E ranks each player according to their all-time score -- an average of the Total Value Share ranking and Total Value Share per game. The A-E column represents my all-time ranking list.

My original concept of Value Shares is based on linear weights including Rosenbaum's Alternate Win Score. However after analyzing the advanced tracking stats from recent season I adopted my own weights. Because the metric still seemed to lack, especially in measuring individual defensive effectiveness, through my research I've implemented my own adjustments, most importantly to factor in defensive value not captured in the box score.

The Value Shares formula is a counting stat with a high correlation with wins (I can bore you with the details in a later post), it comprises of other details including my own recalculated Usg%, but significant adjustments are the reassessed box stats.

The first reassessment is the time period regulation, which covers among others things the change in pace, generally from decade to decade although I made some adjustments to mirror major NBA rule changes. It's fundamentally impossible to even start with comparing players across from different time periods without first forming a neutral period to serve as the common denominator. Generally, RPG, FTA in the 60s is higher than it is today, possibly due to pace. I didn't get into the "why" much, although there are very good explanations there. I simply took account of the league averages. The most important feature of the time period regulations, is of course which time period do I denominate all the box stats? In concluding my research, I found the early 90s to be the most neutral time period in NBA history to this point. By neutral I mean, the league averages and pace were fairly moderate, and "top-to-bottom" there was generally high level play from all positions.

That brings me to my next reassessment, the league quality adjustment. There are many factors that have affected the NBA quality of competition in my estimation: Expansion, Demographics, Rule Changes, etc. In my selection of the 90s as the most neutral period, the rules in particular allowed for a more balanced game. The lane dimensions compared to the early 60s, physicality compared to today's NBA (hand-checking, defending around screens, etc.), Rules governing offensive/defensive play in the paint, all allowed for a more quality game. If you were a poor defensive player, you were more likely to get exposed and exploited, if you were a great offensive talent, you were more likely to showcase your skill. In measuring League Quality, I used my original value share outcomes, which were based on Arturo Galleti's position adjustments.


*I applied a second pace adjustment to allocate the time period factor to each specific team's pace
*I prorated the adjusted box stats for strike-shortened seasons
*All Season stats totals include post season stats.
*I made slight adjustments in 2pt FG, FGA for pre-3pt NBA periods
*I made slight adjustments for Assists totals for pre-NBA/ABA merger seasons, it's my belief that scorekeepers were less generous during these periods
*70s ABA league quality = 60s NBA league quality
*Used multiple statistical models to estimate unavailable Box Stats
*GP are calculated as Total Minutes/36 = GP

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... Sn/pubhtml

Mike G
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Re: ULTIMATE GOAT LIST (Neutralized Stats) updated through 2019 postseason

Post by Mike G » Sun Jul 07, 2019 6:50 pm

Hey, nice to see this again. I've taken a couple years off.

Do you give extra weight to playoff Value Shares? Any extra for Finals performance / winning?
And your per game metric is actually per minute X 36, yes?

After LeBron and Jordan, the rest of the top 10 are all bigs -- Karl Malone the least center-like. In the next 10 are no bigs.
Odd to see Bill Russell lower than Ben Wallace, Marion, Griffin, Hayes and 44 others.
The best players of the '40s-50s are the worst players ever? Ranked lower than the worst players of that era?

Mike G
Posts: 4424
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Location: Asheville, NC

Re: ULTIMATE GOAT LIST (Neutralized Stats) updated through 2019 postseason

Post by Mike G » Sun Jul 07, 2019 7:14 pm

It looks like your ranking number is based on shortfall from the leaders in the other 2:
Value Shares: LeBron 340.24
VS/36: Jordan .257

Ranking is by All Time Score, in which ATS = (340.24-VS)*0.01 + (.257-VS/G)*10
... or something like that?
This results in smaller-is-better ranking; and not much in the way of scale between #1 and #2, etc.

Converting it to positive numbers (more is better) I've scaled VS and VS/G by the same factors, and the rankings are the same. But we can see which number, Value Share or VS/36, is a bigger part of their total.
Top 30:

Code: Select all

x+y      1-10          value  per36
5.92   LeBron James     3.43   2.49
5.45   Michael Jordan   2.90   2.54
5.07 Kareem AbdulJabbar 3.13   1.94
4.93  Shaquille O'Neal  2.69   2.24
4.79   Tim Duncan       2.78   2.01

4.73   Karl Malone      2.84   1.89
4.45   Kevin Garnett    2.54   1.91
4.36   Hakeem Olajuwon  2.39   1.97
4.27   David Robinson   2.06   2.20
4.23  Wilt Chamberlain  2.40   1.83

x+y      11-20         value  per36
4.23   Charles Barkley  2.17   2.05
4.09   Magic Johnson    2.03   2.06
4.05   Kobe Bryant      2.36   1.68
3.95   Chris Paul       1.87   2.08
3.90   Julius Erving    2.19   1.71

3.89   Larry Bird       1.93   1.95
3.80   John Stockton    2.14   1.65
3.76   Dwyane Wade      1.89   1.86
3.63   Kevin Durant     1.73   1.90
3.48   Clyde Drexler    1.75   1.72

x+y      21-30         value  per36
3.47   Anthony Davis    0.98   2.46
3.42  Russell Westbrook 1.49   1.92
3.37   Moses Malone     1.85   1.51
3.34   Dirk Nowitzki    1.90   1.44
3.25   Gary Payton      1.81   1.43

3.24   Pau Gasol        1.69   1.54
3.23   Scottie Pippen   1.76   1.46
3.23   Jason Kidd       1.86   1.37
3.20   Dwight Howard    1.54   1.65
3.15   Oscar Robertson  1.70   1.44

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Re: ULTIMATE GOAT LIST (Neutralized Stats) updated through 2019 postseason

Post by D-rell » Mon Jul 08, 2019 11:23 pm


The Value score formula is ((Top Values share - Player Value Share)+(Top VS/per - Player VS/per)*1000)/100

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