Things that could go wrong next season for Rockets

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Crow
Posts: 6248
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Things that could go wrong next season for Rockets

Post by Crow » Sun Aug 04, 2019 7:05 pm

1. Get outplayed / outproduced at forward positions.

2. Get outrebounded, especially on defensive glass.

3. Foul too much.

4. Get unclear about what pace they want to play at.

5. Pick the wrong starting lineup and / or not use it enough.

6. Pick the wrong next 5 lineups and / or not use them enough.

7. Use hundreds and hundreds and hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of dink lineups, limiting learning on key lineups for playoffs.

8. Not fixing what went wrong with Capela in last playoffs.

9. Not fitting Westbrook enough into Rockets system and /or not changing Rockets system enough to yield best return from Westbrook.

10. Playing Eric Gordon in 3 guard lineups that don't include both Harden & Westbrook.

11. Using Gerald Green too much / wrong.

12. Not figuring out the defensive scheme or implementing it effectively.

13. Having team 3pt fg% fall below league average.

14. Westbrook shooting horribly from line again and pulling team ft% down closer to average.

15. Westbrook-Harden friction. Westbrook-D'Antoni friction. Westbrook-Capela friction. Westbrook - Rivers friction.

16. Slowdown of Tucker at 34. Probably won't happen, but might.

17. Injuries.

18. Not resting Westbrook & Harden enough for playoffs.

19. The relationship between coach and owner/ management.

20. Being overconfident.

21. The quality and quantity of the assistant coaching staff.



"Could".

Many things could go right too. One list will offset the other in some proportion.

Klubkapital
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Joined: Sat Jun 22, 2019 5:20 am

Re: Things that could go wrong next season for Rockets

Post by Klubkapital » Fri Aug 16, 2019 9:52 am

I doubt they get outrebounded defensively. I know Westbrook and Harden (to a lesser extent) have a a boxout rate that is far below their rebounding rate, but they're still very good at grabbing uncontested rebounds. If they fail to meet expectations this season, I think 14 and 17 (not just a bad FT%, but bad TS% also) are the most likely reasons why. I could also see them underperforming their point differential due to poor performance in clutch situations.

eminence
Posts: 141
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Re: Things that could go wrong next season for Rockets

Post by eminence » Fri Aug 16, 2019 5:51 pm

Harden/Westbrook fit and play from the forward positions are the big 2 I'd be worried about for them. Tucker fading is a very big danger for them.

Klubkapital
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Re: Things that could go wrong next season for Rockets

Post by Klubkapital » Sat Aug 17, 2019 12:09 am

Harden and Westbrook will be fine when one of them is off the court, but how they'll play is a huge question mark which is why I think they'll be a poor late-game team, at least for the first 20-40 games.

Crow
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Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: Things that could go wrong next season for Rockets

Post by Crow » Sun Aug 18, 2019 4:43 pm

Of the 7 top contenders by J Godstein's model, 6 were in last playoffs. Rockets offense was 5th on efficiency in that group. Is it going to be better? I think there is more chance it is same or worse than better (unless they make further trades). They were 3rd on playoff defensive efficiency in that group. I think Westbrook will make them a bit worse.

They have some chance to win depending on match-ups and getting hot or facing cold or injured. But it is probably 15% or less. Much more likely they lose in 2nd round than go further.

eminence
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Re: Things that could go wrong next season for Rockets

Post by eminence » Sun Aug 18, 2019 6:58 pm

Yeah, certainly towards the bottom of my 7 or 8 team 'contender' group (iffy on including Denver).

Crow
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Re: Things that could go wrong next season for Rockets

Post by Crow » Mon Aug 19, 2019 2:21 am

Of the top 7-9 teams, there are pretty obvious reasons why they might not win it all. The teams hardest to find reasons why it doesn't work are probably the Bucks and Clippers. And yet there is more chance that each won't win it than they do. It looks like broad competition.

Klubkapital
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Joined: Sat Jun 22, 2019 5:20 am

Re: Things that could go wrong next season for Rockets

Post by Klubkapital » Mon Aug 19, 2019 3:24 am

Crow wrote:
Sun Aug 18, 2019 4:43 pm
Of the 7 top contenders by J Godstein's model, 6 were in last playoffs. Rockets offense was 5th on efficiency in that group. Is it going to be better? I think there is more chance it is same or worse than better (unless they make further trades). They were 3rd on playoff defensive efficiency in that group. I think Westbrook will make them a bit worse.
I think their Rel-ORTG next season will be better than their full-season Rel-ORTG was last year (+5.1), however, it'll most likely be worse than their Rel-ORTG was during their healthiest stretch last season (Games 49-82). Over that 34 game period, they went 25-9, and had the net-rating of a 59 win team (+7.7, with a +7.5 Rel-ORTG).

Using Goldstein's rotation builder and his projected PIPM numbers, they're projected to be a 54.1 win team with a +6.5 Rel-ORTG, and -1.0 Rel-DRTG (below their full-season Rel-DRTG of -0.3) with this rotation.
Image

Crow
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Re: Things that could go wrong next season for Rockets

Post by Crow » Mon Aug 19, 2019 3:42 am

So offense gets 1 pt better than last season and defense gets 1 pt worse? I feel more strongly about the latter but we'll see.

Klubkapital
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Joined: Sat Jun 22, 2019 5:20 am

Re: Things that could go wrong next season for Rockets

Post by Klubkapital » Mon Aug 19, 2019 3:56 am

The Rockets' ORTG last year doesn't reflect the quality of team they actually were because of the weird beginning to the season they had where everyone except for Harden was playing like garbage. Capela and Paul also missed time in the middle of the season. The 34 game stretch I mentioned is probably better representation of the team they actually were, so I agree with you that chances are Houston is worse offensive and defensive team than they were last year, but they'll also win about as many games .

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