APBRmetrics

Kings took 54% of their shots in first ten seconds. Hawks 52%. Bucks 50%. Rockets just 43%.

Westbrook took 63% of his shots in first 10 seconds, so he might speed them up some. Harden was just 39%. Paul 37%. Will Harden start to take more shots early to make sure it is his shot that goes up first?

Spurs just 41%. Haven't checked everybody but that is the lowest so far.

Okay, now I have checked everybody. They tie for the lowest early shot rate with the not impressive company known as the current Cavs.

But the Spurs' shot rate in first 10 seconds is up 1 %pt from previous season and way up from season before that and a bit more from the season before that (a low of 32% in 2015-16. 37% in 2013-14 title winning season). Assume there was some intention behind the change, even though they sometimes did well with it low (including in 2006-7).

Maybe DeRozan is quick to shoot?

Maybe there is correlation to age? Hou oldest in the league last season at 29.2, SAS next but younger by half a year than 2018.
Cavs were historically old 2 years ago at 30.6, then incredibly transformed into 7th youngest at 25.2 last season.

Cavs went from 44% of shots in first 10 seconds in 2017-18 and 58% efg on them to 41% last season and 55% efg on them.

DeRozan only took 39% of his shots in first 10 seconds, less than team average. May not see the ball often until after the PG and / or Aldridge explore their options?

The overall correlation between tm minutes weighted age and % of tm shots in first 10 seconds is -0.21.
The overall correlation between tm wins and % of tm shots in first 10 seconds is 0.21.

For teams over .500 the overall correlation between tm minutes weighted age and % of tm shots in first 10 seconds is 0.17 within that group. For the losing teams it is 0.24 within that group.

For teams over .500 the overall correlation between tm wins and % of tm shots in first 10 seconds is -0.35 within that group. For the losing teams it is -0.22 within that group.


The overall correlation between tm minutes weighted age and tm wins is 0.62.
The between tm minutes weighted age and tm wins for winning teams is just 0.33. For losing team though it is 0.75.

So there is a lot of diverse data sets on these factors. The only thing that is strongly correlated is age and winning, especially losing teams being heavily on youngish side.

Thunder were the highest at 56% for early shots.

That probably changes. But how far and how hard do they fight it?

The average was 46.4%.