Page 1 of 2
player rankings 2019-20
Posted: Thu Oct 31, 2019 12:27 am
by Mike G
Equivalent wins added, or eWins, projected to the full 82 games
Code: Select all
e82 per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
21.7 Karl-A Towns Min .644 35.9 14.1 6.1 3.3 2.6 2.2 3.80
18.4 Anthony Davis LAL .569 34.9 13.8 3.4 1.1 3.0 3.3 3.27
17.9 Kyrie Irving Brk .604 38.6 5.9 6.7 1.8 2.3 .7 3.05
16.4 Kawhi Leonard LAC .603 34.0 8.7 10.9 2.2 3.9 1.6 3.36
16.1 Giannis A Mil .545 26.0 13.9 11.3 1.6 5.3 2.0 3.03
15.7 R Westbrook Hou .584 23.8 12.5 11.9 1.4 4.3 .4 2.73
14.7 LeBron James LAL .567 29.4 6.6 12.1 .8 4.5 .6 2.67
14.4 Damian Lillard Por .577 31.0 4.9 5.8 1.2 2.2 .7 2.29
13.7 Andre Drummond Det .604 21.8 18.3 1.5 1.8 3.7 2.4 2.32
13.1 Donovan Mitchell Uta .593 32.1 5.7 4.1 1.9 1.7 .3 2.32
e82 per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
12.6 Trae Young Atl .637 35.9 6.1 8.3 1.2 6.2 .0 2.50
12.5 Pascal Siakam Tor .598 31.7 9.5 4.5 .3 4.4 .3 2.14
12.4 Luka Doncic Dal .568 24.8 8.5 7.6 2.3 4.4 .0 2.08
12.2 Malcolm Brogdon Ind .593 23.5 4.7 8.9 1.0 1.7 .7 2.06
11.7 Shai G-Alexander OkC .552 27.2 6.7 3.5 .8 1.6 1.3 2.01
11.3 Joel Embiid Phl .607 35.1 16.8 5.8 2.0 4.6 2.6 3.57
11.3 Brandon Ingram NOP .596 24.2 9.4 4.6 .8 2.8 1.3 1.96
11.2 Tristan Thompson Cle .617 22.1 12.8 1.7 .0 .4 1.5 1.97
11.2 Bam Adebayo Mia .612 18.9 12.5 6.2 1.4 3.9 2.0 2.08
11.2 Nikola Jokic Den .500 18.3 13.7 8.2 1.8 4.5 .9 2.09
1.00 is NBA avg eW per 484 minutes
Per 36 minute rates are scaled to standards of 100 points (and 44 rebounds) per team, per game.
This is with the season 4.4% completed, or 3-4 games per team.
Embiid has missed one game and averaged 28 minutes in the other two. The 82 game projection assumes similar minutes the rest of the way.
Re: eWins 2019-20
Posted: Sun Nov 03, 2019 11:35 am
by Mike G
At 7% of the season
Code: Select all
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
19.5 LeBron James LAL 34 .597 33.5 7.8 12.6 1.5 4.4 .6 3.34
18.6 Giannis Mil 33 .608 31.2 14.4 9.5 1.5 5.0 2.1 3.38
18.0 Anthony Davis LAL 35 .562 33.9 12.0 3.1 1.3 2.6 3.0 3.03
16.1 Damian Lillard Por 38 .613 31.4 5.2 7.5 1.5 2.8 .5 2.52
15.7 Andre Drummond Det 36 .615 22.3 20.5 2.5 1.8 4.1 2.7 2.59
15.4 Kyrie Irving Brk 34 .575 32.3 6.9 8.1 1.1 2.8 .7 2.70
15.1 Russell Westbrook Hou 35 .544 20.7 11.1 11.6 2.1 3.8 .6 2.58
14.6 Luka Doncic Dal 36 .570 26.4 9.2 9.0 1.8 4.8 .2 2.39
14.6 Kawhi Leonard LAC 30 .586 37.9 9.9 8.2 2.7 4.0 1.2 3.47
14.5 Karl-A Towns Min 31 .669 33.8 13.6 5.1 3.0 3.1 2.1 3.46
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
14.3 Malcolm Brogdon Ind 34 .574 25.8 6.1 9.6 1.5 2.6 .6 2.47
13.2 Donovan Mitchell Uta 34 .590 31.6 5.7 3.5 2.2 1.5 .2 2.30
12.7 Kevin Love Cle 34 .642 20.4 17.7 4.9 1.1 4.2 .0 2.23
12.3 James Harden Hou 37 .550 30.6 4.2 8.3 .8 5.6 .4 1.97
11.7 Kyle Lowry Tor 39 .643 24.6 4.4 7.0 .9 3.2 .5 1.78
11.7 Bam Adebayo Mia 33 .625 18.3 11.1 6.6 1.4 3.0 2.0 2.12
11.7 Kemba Walker Bos 35 .567 29.3 4.9 4.2 1.1 2.3 .4 1.97
11.3 Pascal Siakam Tor 34 .589 29.5 8.7 4.2 .7 3.6 .2 2.00
11.3 Nikola Jokic Den 31 .556 20.5 12.5 7.6 1.4 3.7 .6 2.18
11.0 Shai G-Alexander OkC 35 .544 25.3 6.9 3.7 .7 1.9 1.1 1.86
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
11.0 Domantas Sabonis Ind 36 .619 23.6 11.4 2.5 .6 2.6 .6 1.79
10.8 Trae Young Atl 30 .637 37.3 6.2 8.3 1.3 6.3 .0 2.69
10.6 Tristan Thompson Cle 34 .575 19.5 12.0 2.4 .2 .4 2.0 1.85
10.2 Brandon Ingram NOP 31 .608 24.8 8.6 4.7 .6 2.9 1.4 1.95
9.8 Ben Simmons Phl 35 .522 17.1 6.6 9.2 2.7 4.6 .6 1.63
9.6 Bradley Beal Was 35 .525 24.9 4.8 6.1 1.7 4.1 .4 1.63
9.3 Al Horford Phl 32 .516 17.4 9.3 5.3 .9 .9 1.4 1.71
9.1 Devin Booker Phx 35 .596 25.9 3.7 6.4 .5 3.8 .4 1.55
9.1 Tobias Harris Phl 36 .613 20.2 8.6 3.3 1.4 2.4 .4 1.49
9.1 Jayson Tatum Bos 36 .509 22.3 7.1 2.5 1.7 1.9 .6 1.51
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
9.0 John Collins Atl 32 .612 19.8 10.1 1.8 1.2 1.6 2.3 1.65
8.8 Aron Baynes Phx 23 .698 25.9 9.2 5.7 .5 1.9 1.3 2.25
8.8 Nikola Vucevic Orl 31 .495 20.7 10.9 2.6 1.0 1.6 .8 1.71
8.7 Joel Embiid Phl 25 .603 34.9 15.0 5.2 2.0 3.9 2.5 3.38
8.5 Kristaps Porzingis Dal 33 .515 21.5 8.5 3.1 .2 2.6 2.3 1.54
8.4 Kendrick Nunn Mia 32 .626 27.6 2.8 3.6 2.1 2.9 .2 1.57
8.4 Montrezl Harrell LAC 28 .725 27.7 7.1 2.6 .8 3.3 .8 1.79
8.1 Dejounte Murray SAS 23 .578 21.6 12.1 8.6 3.7 4.5 1.2 2.60
8.0 Bojan Bogdanovic Uta 30 .667 31.3 5.9 1.8 1.2 3.2 .5 1.87
8.0 Danilo Gallinari OkC 29 .624 26.7 5.7 1.7 .6 1.5 .2 1.62
player rankings 2019-20
Posted: Fri Nov 08, 2019 11:42 am
by Mike G
mvp award tracker:
Code: Select all
prob mvp tm win% Pts Reb Ast Stl Blk
.546 Giannis Mil .750 29.0 14.3 7.6 1.3 1.6
.327 LeBron LAL .857 26.1 8.3 11.1 1.6 .7
.037 A Davis LAL .857 26.6 10.9 2.7 1.0 3.0
.031 Doncic Dal .714 26.7 9.9 9.1 1.3 .1
.014 Hayward Bos .857 20.3 7.9 4.6 .7 .1
.011 Irving Brk .429 31.7 6.1 7.7 1.3 .6
.010 Harden Hou .625 36.5 5.0 8.1 1.3 .8
.009 Towns Min .571 26.8 11.8 3.6 2.0 1.8
.008 Kawhi LAC .667 29.0 8.1 5.4 2.1 1.1
.007 Kemba Bos .857 24.3 5.1 4.0 1.0 .6
Damian Lillard is 2nd in both vorp and ws, but the rest of his team sucks.
Donovan Mitchell is 4th in both. (Giannis and LeBron are 1 and 3)
Here's everyone who ranks top 10 in either PER, WS/48 or BPM. ranked by
xyz =((PER-5.75)*ws48*(bpm+5.25)*mpg)^(1/3)
Code: Select all
xyz player mpg PER ws/48 bpm
19.2 Giannis 32 35.4 .361 15.1
16.0 Towns 31 32.6 .285 11.7
15.9 LeBron 35 30.0 .285 11.5
15.3 Irving 34 31.5 .307 8.2
14.5 Kawhi 31 32.0 .238 10.7
14.3 Lillard 38 28.7 .255 8.0
13.3 Butler 31 26.0 .269 8.5
13.3 Doncic 36 26.6 .216 9.3
12.9 Mitchell 30 26.4 .264 7.8
12.6 Harrell 29 28.3 .264 6.2
12.2 Davis 35 27.8 .243 4.6
12.2 Harden 35 28.4 .197 6.3
11.7 Drummond 36 27.4 .193 5.4
10.9 Adebayo 31 20.8 .226 7.2
Re: eWins 2019-20
Posted: Fri Nov 08, 2019 4:03 pm
by Crow
"Per 36 minute rates are scaled to standards of 100 points (and 44 rebounds) per team, per game."
Could you explain this again and does change in league pace, fg% and rebounding warrant adjustments?
Re: player rankings 2019-20
Posted: Fri Nov 08, 2019 4:22 pm
by Mike G
If your SF (for example) is scoring 20 pts per 36 minutes, but the team is giving up 110 Pts/G, then his scoring rate is factored by 100/110, or .91 -- and this reduces his "effective scoring" to 18.2 pts/36 in a 100 ppg environment.
So it's kind of like playing to 100 points and calling it a game, rather than have some games end at 80 and others go to 160. Everyone's on the same scale.
Rebound% (at b-r.com) is per 100 rebounds by team+opponent, and I've just scaled to 88 instead.
With TReb%, 10 is normal, and per-88 means 8.8 is average over 48 minutes -- per36, avg is 6.6
Lots of other adjustments are contained, but this is kind of a big one.
Pace doesn't directly create either points or rebounds or anything else, so I ignore it.
Scoring is adjusted by (playerTS% / leagueTS%) taken to some power, and also by playerTS%/opponentTS%. In a playoff series, it's relative to shooting in that series only, since it is just your team and one opponent.
Re: player rankings 2019-20
Posted: Fri Nov 08, 2019 6:01 pm
by Crow
Thanks for the explanation.
Pace creates possession opportunities. I wouldn't ignore it. Very close within a game for the teams but not necessarily for players on same team but in different game parts or players on different paced teams or different paced game parts of those teams.
According to nba.com
https://stats.nba.com/players/advanced/?sort=GP&dir=-1 about 30% of players play at an average pace below the league average of 102.6. Almost 15% play above 110 or about 7.4% above the average. That is a pretty wide distribution.
Players at different performance levels AND Pace are having different total impacts because of both and players at similar performance levels AND different paces are having different total impacts where they are and how they are used (that could vary if moved, but most focus is on the now).
Re: player rankings 2019-20
Posted: Sat Nov 23, 2019 9:58 pm
by Mike G
MVP Award Tracker, per game averages:
Code: Select all
mvp% player tm mpg TS% Pts Reb Ast Stl Blk
.256 Doncic Dal 34 .632 29.9 10.4 9.7 1.3 .1
.247 Giannis Mil 33 .618 30.1 14.1 6.6 1.5 1.4
.239 LeBron LAL 35 .567 24.9 7.7 11.3 1.3 .6
.157 Harden Hou 37 .627 38.3 5.9 7.8 1.7 .5
.051 Davis LAL 35 .586 25.8 9.1 3.6 1.4 2.9
.028 Butler Mia 34 .587 19.5 5.6 7.0 2.8 .9
nobody else at 1%
A similar list comes up with summary stats:
Code: Select all
xyz player tm mpg PER WS/48 BPM
18.0 Doncic Dal 34 33.2 .321 14.1
16.1 Giannis Mil 33 31.9 .278 12.2
15.9 Harden Hou 37 30.9 .278 10.2
14.4 LeBron LAL 35 27.7 .259 9.7
14.2 Towns Min 33 29.1 .255 9.3
13.1 Butler Mia 34 24.9 .274 7.2
13.0 Davis LAL 35 27.1 .248 6.6
12.0 Lillard Por 38 25.5 .213 5.6
11.9 Irving Brk 34 26.2 .208 6.6
11.4 Adebayo Mia 32 21.5 .235 7.1
Re: player rankings 2019-20
Posted: Sun Nov 24, 2019 7:12 am
by Crow
Team record will be an important factor, as it almost always is.
Re: player rankings 2019-20
Posted: Sun Nov 24, 2019 4:19 pm
by Mike G
A top 40. Not counting last night's games (sorry), four summary stats are converted to "wins" and averaged. No adjustment for team games played.
Code: Select all
xyzW player tm mpg e484 PER WS48 BPM
3.32 Luka Dončić DAL 34 2.75 33.2 .321 14.1
3.25 James Harden HOU 37 2.18 30.9 .278 10.2
2.96 Giannis A MIL 33 2.63 31.9 .278 12.2
2.77 LeBron James LAL 35 2.43 27.7 .259 9.7
2.27 Anthony Davis LAL 35 1.95 27.1 .248 6.6
2.22 Damian Lillard POR 38 1.70 25.5 .213 5.6
2.22 Karl-A Towns MIN 33 2.22 29.1 .255 9.3
2.00 Bam Adebayo MIA 32 2.19 21.5 .235 7.1
1.93 Rudy Gobert UTA 35 1.73 19.2 .218 4.0
1.89 Jimmy Butler MIA 34 2.53 24.9 .274 7.2
xyzW player tm mpg e484 PER WS48 BPM
1.80 Donovan Mitchell UTA 35 1.43 21.7 .176 3.8
1.74 Andre Drummond DET 34 1.58 23.3 .143 3.5
1.71 Montrezl Harrell LAC 30 1.09 22.8 .197 4.8
1.68 Nikola Jokić DEN 31 1.87 21.1 .172 6.5
1.65 Chris Paul OKC 31 1.73 20.5 .192 3.8
1.61 Kemba Walker BOS 32 1.50 20.1 .166 3.8
1.60 Kyrie Irving BRK 34 1.79 26.2 .208 6.6
1.56 Nikola Vučević ORL 31 1.67 22.3 .169 4.4
1.52 Fred VanVleet TOR 38 1.55 16.1 .151 2.1
1.51 Pascal Siakam TOR 37 1.29 19.5 .145 2.4
xyzW player tm mpg e484 PER WS48 BPM
1.50 Bradley Beal WAS 37 1.31 23.5 .139 2.1
1.43 Kawhi Leonard LAC 33 1.90 24.3 .158 6.5
1.43 Trae Young ATL 34 1.56 22.6 .092 3.0
1.40 Paul Millsap DEN 27 1.64 20.3 .225 3.9
1.39 Malcolm Brogdon IND 31 1.59 22.5 .197 4.6
1.39 Danilo Gallinari OKC 30 1.36 19.9 .184 1.4
1.38 Lou Williams LAC 33 1.01 19.8 .151 0.5
1.37 Tobias Harris PHI 34 1.27 17.1 .138 1.4
1.36 Clint Capela HOU 32 1.31 21.2 .188 0.3
1.34 P.J. Tucker HOU 35 1.43 11.4 .123 2.0
xyzW player tm mpg e484 PER WS48 BPM
1.33 Domantas Sabonis IND 34 1.38 20.7 .175 3.0
1.32 Al Horford PHI 32 1.53 17.5 .146 2.8
1.32 Devin Booker PHO 35 .94 19.5 .148 1.6
1.32 Eric Bledsoe MIL 27 1.36 20.5 .177 2.7
1.31 Marcus Smart BOS 32 1.53 14.4 .134 2.4
1.30 Kevin Love CLE 32 1.45 20.0 .129 1.7
1.30 Tristan Thompson CLE 31 1.16 20.7 .134 3.3
1.29 Joel Embiid PHI 29 1.80 25.9 .204 3.9
1.29 OG Anunoby TOR 29 1.50 16.6 .184 5.3
1.27 Ben Simmons PHI 34 1.30 18.3 .146 2.7
#41-50: Aldridge, J Murray, W Carter, Isaac, Baynes, DeRozan, D Graham, Zubac, Tatum, Kennard
51-60: Bjelica, Wiggins, Ingram, Whiteside, Westbrook, G Hill, R Holmes, B Lopez, Barton, Fournier
Re: player rankings 2019-20
Posted: Wed Nov 27, 2019 3:14 pm
by Mike G
An abrupt imbalance in the mvp running:
Code: Select all
mvp% per game Pts Reb Ast Stl Blk
.429 Giannis 31.1 13.9 6.4 1.6 1.3
.238 LeBron 25.6 7.5 11.0 1.2 .6
.142 Doncic 30.1 10.0 9.5 1.5 .2
.097 Harden 37.9 6.1 8.0 1.6 .5
.057 Davis 25.1 9.0 3.8 1.5 2.9
.014 Butler 18.9 5.4 6.7 1.1 1.5
Luka loses half of his mvp% with just 2 games, one sensational, the other so-so.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/mvp.html
If b-r.com ever revises their mvp% formula, I wonder if they'd use their own forecast team Win% rather than the current one.
It seems to make a large difference here, whether the Lakers are an 88% (15-2) team, or a 69% (56-26 projected) team.
Jordan won his last mvp at age 34 (2nd retirement). LeBron last won at age 28, is 34 now. The conference leader with the best "story" will have more "value".
Re: player rankings 2019-20
Posted: Thu Nov 28, 2019 5:40 am
by Crow
It is Giannis or LeBron for the win in the end I'd guess. Harden will get a good share of votes but probably ends up 3rd unless the Rockets end up with a record as good as the other two. It will come to the voters and tgeir criteria. Confirm Giannis as the top guy or give LeBron his last one. Leonard will get some votes but probably will get more in playoffs MVP vote.
Re: player rankings 2019-20
Posted: Mon Feb 17, 2020 10:53 am
by Mike G
All Star Break!
PER and BPM are converted to "wins" equivalents, then averaged with Win Shares and eWins.
These avg "wins" are then projected to 82 games.
mpg are player minutes divided by team games. Players traded midseason are projected to continue with mpg and rates.
Code: Select all
W/82 Player tm mpg PER e484 WS/48 BPM
16.3 James Harden Hou 35 29.0 2.23 .255 9.3
15.0 Giannis Mil 27 32.2 2.73 .289 12.0
14.1 Damian Lillard Por 36 26.8 1.77 .223 6.6
13.6 LeBron James LAL 34 25.2 2.19 .203 8.2
13.4 Nikola Jokić Den 33 25.3 2.13 .216 8.4
13.3 Anthony Davis LAL 30 28.3 2.13 .265 7.1
12.7 Luka Dončić Dal 26 29.2 2.43 .236 11.4
12.0 Rudy Gobert Uta 33 22.4 1.94 .234 5.0
11.1 Jimmy Butler Mia 29 24.0 2.08 .228 5.3
11.1 Ben Simmons Phl 35 20.7 1.71 .180 5.1
W/82 11-20 tm mpg PER e484 WS/48 BPM
10.9 Bam Adebayo Mia 35 20.7 1.64 .183 5.1
10.4 Chris Paul OKC 31 21.6 1.79 .198 4.8
10.2 Trae Young Atl 31 24.4 1.70 .138 5.0
9.8 Kawhi Leonard LAC 25 26.4 1.86 .208 7.1
9.5 Domantas Sabonis Ind 33 20.6 1.48 .166 3.9
9.3 Karl-A Towns Min 22 26.8 1.98 .214 8.2
9.2 Hassan Whiteside Por 28 24.8 1.39 .205 3.1
8.8 Andre Drummond Cle 32 22.2 1.58 .120 3.0
8.6 DeMar DeRozan SAS 33 22.0 1.16 .151 1.5
8.5 Devin Booker Phx 34 20.6 1.20 .141 1.8
W/82 21-30 tm mpg PER e484 WS/48 BPM
8.5 Khris Middleton Mil 26 21.9 1.58 .223 4.2
8.4 Jarrett Allen Brk 27 20.6 1.70 .213 3.5
8.3 Kemba Walker Bos 27 21.0 1.59 .178 3.8
8.1 Zach LaVine Chi 35 19.9 1.32 .105 1.8
8.1 Bradley Beal Was 31 22.6 1.38 .116 1.9
8.0 Jayson Tatum Bos 32 19.5 1.41 .138 2.0
7.9 Kyle Lowry Tor 29 17.8 1.77 .170 3.2
7.9 Nikola Vučević Orl 26 21.6 1.73 .150 4.3
7.8 Donovan Mitchell Uta 34 19.3 1.19 .123 1.4
7.8 R Westbrook Hou 30 21.1 1.58 .106 2.1
W/82 31-40 tm mpg PER e484 WS/48 BPM
7.6 Montrezl Harrell LAC 28 22.5 .92 .178 2.1
7.6 Joel Embiid Phl 22 24.9 1.84 .196 3.8
7.5 LaMarcus Aldridge SAS 31 20.3 1.18 .133 1.8
7.5 Brandon Ingram NOP 29 20.6 1.31 .138 2.2
7.5 Mitchell Robinson NYK 21 22.5 1.85 .221 5.3
7.4 Shai G-Alexander OKC 36 17.5 1.18 .117 0.6
7.2 Fred VanVleet Tor 29 16.6 1.61 .143 2.1
7.1 Danilo Gallinari OKC 26 20.0 1.43 .174 1.9
7.0 Steven Adams OKC 24 20.1 1.35 .182 4.3
7.0 Jonas Valančiūnas Mem 25 22.2 1.21 .173 2.6
W/82 41-50 tm mpg PER e484 WS/48 BPM
6.8 Spencer Dinwiddie Brk 31 18.0 1.31 .121 0.5
6.8 Tobias Harris Phl 34 16.4 1.17 .121 0.1
6.6 Pascal Siakam Tor 28 18.9 1.34 .129 1.4
6.6 Nemanja Bjelica Sac 28 16.4 1.29 .135 2.9
6.5 Clint Capela Hou 24 20.7 1.35 .186 1.4
6.4 Devonte' Graham Cha 35 15.9 1.46 .075 0.1
6.3 Will Barton Den 29 16.0 1.34 .123 1.8
6.2 Al Horford Phl 28 15.2 1.43 .128 2.3
6.2 T.J. Warren Ind 31 17.5 .95 .131 0.3
6.1 Richaun Holmes Sac 20 20.9 1.44 .203 3.5
W/82 51-60 tm mpg PER e484 WS/48 BPM
6.0 Bojan Bogdanović Uta 33 16.4 .92 .114 0.2
6.0 Eric Bledsoe Mil 23 18.7 1.35 .175 2.1
6.0 Gordon Hayward Bos 23 18.6 1.34 .168 2.9
5.8 Daniel Theis Bos 20 17.2 1.52 .192 4.6
5.8 Evan Fournier Orl 31 16.2 1.07 .106 0.2
5.8 Kelly Oubre Phx 33 15.3 1.19 .098 -0.7
5.7 Jrue Holiday NOP 29 17.0 1.32 .077 1.2
5.7 Jamal Murray Den 26 18.0 1.21 .119 0.9
5.7 Jaylen Brown Bos 27 17.2 1.10 .129 0.6
5.7 Buddy Hield Sac 33 16.0 1.10 .068 0.3
W/82 61-70 tm mpg PER e484 WS/48 BPM
5.7 Kevin Love Cle 27 18.3 1.32 .100 0.6
5.6 Nerlens Noel OKC 16 22.3 1.66 .234 6.4
5.6 Brook Lopez Mil 26 14.0 1.34 .138 3.1
5.5 Ivica Zubac LAC 18 21.0 1.35 .224 3.2
5.4 Duncan Robinson Mia 29 12.6 1.34 .121 1.3
5.4 Joe Ingles Uta 30 12.6 1.16 .114 1.8
5.4 DeAndre Jordan Brk 18 20.5 1.35 .209 3.3
5.3 Brandon Clarke Mem 19 21.8 1.00 .190 2.5
5.3 Dwight Howard LAL 20 19.1 1.13 .198 2.4
5.3 Dorian F-Smith Dal 30 12.4 1.18 .110 1.8
W/82 71-80 tm mpg PER e484 WS/48 BPM
5.2 George Hill Mil 17 18.1 1.61 .228 3.3
5.1 Marcus Smart Bos 25 13.8 1.44 .119 2.1
5.1 JaVale McGee LAL 16 21.1 1.45 .219 4.0
5.1 Lou Williams LAC 28 17.3 .95 .105 -0.8
5.1 Jaren Jackson Mem 27 16.4 1.06 .097 0.9
5.1 Julius Randle NYK 32 16.9 1.10 .051 -0.7
5.1 Dennis Schröder OKC 31 17.0 .77 .089 -0.6
5.1 Ja Morant Mem 27 18.4 1.02 .095 -0.4
5.0 CJ McCollum Por 33 16.0 .99 .062 -1.0
5.0 De'Aaron Fox Sac 21 19.8 1.44 .102 1.7
W/82 81-90 tm mpg PER e484 WS/48 BPM
5.0 Paul George LAC 18 20.3 1.48 .140 3.5
5.0 Kristaps Porziņģis Dal 23 18.5 1.37 .116 -0.5
5.0 OG Anunoby Tor 29 12.6 1.04 .117 1.5
5.0 Tomáš Satoranský Chi 29 14.4 1.15 .107 -0.2
5.0 Malcolm Brogdon Ind 23 18.0 1.25 .112 1.0
4.9 Kyrie Irving Brk 12 26.3 1.83 .218 7.4
4.9 Terry Rozier Cha 34 14.6 1.12 .057 -0.9
4.9 Dāvis Bertāns Was 24 15.7 1.27 .110 1.3
4.9 Robert Covington Hou 28 13.6 1.29 .087 0.7
4.9 Christian Wood Det 18 22.6 1.11 .187 0.9
W/82 91-101 tm mpg PER e484 WS/48 BPM
4.8 Tristan Thompson Cle 28 16.9 .83 .084 0.1
4.8 Maxi Kleber Dal 24 14.0 1.15 .131 1.6
4.7 Justin Holiday Ind 25 12.5 1.23 .117 2.3
4.7 Andrew Wiggins GSW 28 16.8 1.12 .063 -0.6
4.7 Jordan Clarkson Uta 24 18.6 .84 .122 0.1
4.7 John Collins Atl 17 22.7 1.26 .161 1.2
4.7 Harrison Barnes Sac 35 13.1 .97 .085 -1.5
4.7 Dwight Powell Dal 19 16.2 1.34 .166 2.8
4.7 Dejounte Murray SAS 23 17.3 1.12 .095 2.0
4.7 Jakob Pöltl SAS 17 19.5 1.07 .165 4.9
4.7 D'Angelo Russell Min 21 19.4 1.41 .067 1.7
Re: player rankings 2019-20
Posted: Mon Feb 17, 2020 4:56 pm
by Crow
These metrics reward usage and don't do much or anything to get at individual defensive impact. So DeRozan does much better here than on RAPM, RPM and probably PIPM.
Re: player rankings 2019-20
Posted: Tue Feb 18, 2020 1:26 am
by Mike G
How do they reward usage? Usage is a denominator, and more of it makes your efficiency less. Don't these metrics value productivity, proficiency, and positive point differential?
DeRozan ranks 20th in minutes and 1st on his team, where the coach is not an idiot.
PER loves him, and he is #15 in PER-wins (in my spreadsheet)
WS thinks he's OK, ranking between Kawhi and Lowry at #19
In BPM-wins , he's #31, between Donovan Mitchell and Brandon Ingram -- marginal allstar territory!
eWins has the dimmest view at #46, twixt Gallinari and Covington.
Sometimes when I do this, I see which stats have higher correlation to minutes and give them more weight.
But then I want to give more weight to high correlations with the better teams; and it gets complicated.
If I drop PER from the average, DD drops from #19 to 36, tied with Shai G-A
Re: player rankings 2019-20
Posted: Tue Feb 18, 2020 3:26 am
by Crow
Usage is the gateway for unlocking rewards for points. Metrics vary in how they reward, at what efficiency threshold. PER rewards at too low a level imo. (Would have to review BPM formula to comment on that.)
DeRozan is 313th on 1 yr PIPM. 157th on RPM. 290th on RAPM. 352th on Luck Adjusted RAPM.
Popovich has a lottery team record right now. Lineup management is a contributing reason for that. The 5 guys with the worst raw on court plus minus / 100 possessions are the 5 starters. I am aware that playing against starters is tougher and not for everybody; but if you are negative at that, I am testing other people more, enough to determine who is least bad.