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Rookies 2019-20
Posted: Sun Nov 03, 2019 11:26 am
by Mike G
Ranked by eWins projected to the full 82, given current minutes and rates.
Code: Select all
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
8.4 Kendrick Nunn Mia 32 .626 27.6 2.8 3.6 2.1 2.9 .2 1.57
5.9 Ja Morant Mem 28 .577 23.3 4.3 6.1 2.1 6.5 .5 1.25
5.6 RJ Barrett NYK 37 .484 17.0 6.1 3.2 1.5 3.0 .3 .91
5.2 Tyler Herro Mia 32 .562 18.3 6.5 2.6 .9 2.8 .0 .96
4.9 PJ Washington Cha 34 .667 16.3 7.3 1.2 1.3 2.4 .5 .85
4.7 Brandon Clarke Mem 23 .611 15.1 8.7 1.0 1.8 1.2 2.4 1.20
3.6 Rui Hachimura Was 31 .490 14.6 7.0 1.2 .5 1.2 .2 .69
3.3 Eric Paschall GSW 28 .643 15.9 3.8 2.0 .9 1.5 .6 .71
3.0 Coby White Chi 23 .471 15.9 4.5 3.4 1.0 1.7 .0 .78
2.5 Bruno Fernando Atl 11 .619 16.3 8.9 3.4 .6 1.8 1.8 1.33
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
1.7 Chris Silva Mia 10 .750 13.3 10.6 2.3 2.0 4.8 4.0 1.04
1.7 Nicolo Melli NOP 14 .661 15.1 6.6 2.7 .4 2.5 .4 .71
1.6 Jaxson Hayes NOP 16 .683 18.1 6.7 2.7 1.4 .7 .7 1.19
1.5 Nick. A-Walker NOP 14 .326 7.7 6.1 7.5 1.2 1.6 .0 .66
1.2 Adm. Schofield Was 12 .917 16.0 4.6 .6 .0 .0 .0 .74
1.0 Terence Davis Tor 8 .467 8.7 7.9 3.2 2.1 .7 .7 .75
1.0 Goga Bitadze Ind 13 .545 9.8 9.4 .8 .0 1.7 4.3 .76
0.9 Grant Williams Bos 18 .434 7.8 5.0 2.5 1.5 1.5 1.1 .30
0.8 Darius Bazley OkC 17 .625 11.2 6.8 1.0 .3 2.9 .6 .27
0.7 De'Andre Hunter Atl 27 .483 10.8 5.5 1.3 1.1 3.1 .6 .16
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
0.6 Terance Mann LAC 4 .667 9.1 10.5 10.5 2.0 4.0 .0 1.41
0.5 Ky Bowman GSW 15 .471 9.8 3.4 2.8 1.9 1.9 .0 .21
0.5 Cam Reddish Atl 25 .277 5.4 6.8 3.1 2.4 3.0 .3 .13
0.5 Cameron Johnson Phx 13 .600 14.1 5.7 .7 1.2 1.9 .0 .36
0.5 Cody Martin Cha 6 .444 6.5 6.0 .9 3.0 .0 1.0 .53
At 6.8% of the season, rookies project to total 65 eWins
Re: Rookies 2019-20
Posted: Sun Nov 03, 2019 4:27 pm
by Crow
Whoever backed Cam Reddish are not looking so good so far (the rookie class, Schlenk, certain draft sites). Of course still early but I think there is some signal there. I was comparatively very low on him.
Grant Williams not as hot as I expected. Size of utilization related? Haven't reviewed yet.
Paschall lasted to 41st for GMs? Pretty ridiculous.
Re: Rookies 2019-20
Posted: Sun Nov 03, 2019 4:38 pm
by eminence
Hmm, not sure what looks off for Williams, most of the stuff I've looked at for him looks pretty great so far, shot not falling, but even moderate improvement there will have him looking great overall (in a more limited role than some others of course).
Re: Rookies 2019-20
Posted: Sun Nov 03, 2019 5:02 pm
by Crow
Looked at my rookie rankings vs the GM picks. My ranking are much more positively correlated to BPM so far, though both are quite low right now. Still early, some haven't played. Will check again later.
Re: Rookies 2019-20
Posted: Sun Nov 03, 2019 11:39 pm
by Mike G
Grant Williams is listed as PF, but he doesn't seem to rebound much, nor does he score much at all; yet he has decent Stl-Blk-TO and is getting some minutes. Celts get killed on the boards, but they haven't been losing games from it.
He's 0-8 from the arc; Cam Reddish is 1-18. Maybe it's a confidence thing.
Re: Rookies 2019-20
Posted: Tue Dec 03, 2019 5:28 pm
by Mike G
Converting PER and BPM to win rates; averaging along with Win Shares and eWins; and projecting to 82 games, given current minutes per team game:
Code: Select all
82W rookies tm Min PER WS/48 BPM e484
4.68 PJ Washington CHO 28 15.2 .092 0.1 1.03
4.66 Brandon Clarke MEM 19 22.1 .167 2.3 .89
4.43 Kendrick Nunn MIA 29 14.4 .096 -1.3 .95
4.31 Terence Davis TOR 16 17.0 .207 3.7 1.39
4.19 Eric Paschall GSW 30 16.5 .088 -2.7 .73
3.98 Ja Morant MEM 24 18.9 .056 -0.9 1.04
3.29 Tyler Herro MIA 28 12.6 .081 -2.1 .65
3.20 Jaxson Hayes NOP 17 16.9 .133 0.8 .78
3.02 Rui Hachimura WAS 27 14.6 .054 -3.2 .71
2.54 Cameron Johnson PHO 17 13.6 .098 -0.3 .81
82W rookies tm Min PER WS/48 BPM e484
2.48 Chris Silva MIA 10 18.4 .200 4.4 .75
2.27 Ky Bowman GSW 24 12.5 .046 -2.9 .63
2.14 RJ Barrett NYK 31 11.2 -.026 -3.5 .97
2.08 Matisse Thybulle PHI 15 9.5 .090 1.6 .69
1.95 Nicolò Melli NOP 14 12.0 .078 -0.8 .88
1.90 Goga Bitadze IND 10 14.5 .145 1.8 .71
1.66 Coby White CHI 25 10.9 .008 -4.1 .71
1.30 Matt Thomas TOR 7 13.1 .150 0.7 .85
1.28 Bruno Fernando ATL 13 13.4 .058 -1.3 .21
1.12 Jarrett Culver MIN 24 8.6 -.014 -4.1 .73
NBA averages are PER = 15, WS/48=.099, BPM=0.0, eW/484=1.00
Among rookies getting >20 mpg, negative wins are adjudged for Darius Garland (Cle), Cam Reddish (Atl) and Jordan Poole (GS).
Of the 4 metrics, eWins has the most favorable view of the rookies, and WS has the worst prognosis. The 82 game projections:
eW : 82.4 (with a mere 1.0 negative wins)
PER: 74.0
BPM: 54.3
WS: 46.7 (w 20 neg.)
The avg is 63.9, including 5.4 negative.
I'm not even sure what "negative wins" are.
Re: Rookies 2019-20
Posted: Tue Dec 03, 2019 5:41 pm
by Crow
Barrett 13th. Culver 20th. Still early but disappointing for high picks.
Culver with mostly horrible shooting, especially from FT line. Not doing much elsewhere in boxscore. Near neutral on raw on court and on / off and exactly neutral on 1 yr LAORAPM and LADRAPM though. That might be acceptable for a rookie, depending on standards.
Negative wins on winshares are negatives so big compared to average performance that they had to go negative on a linear scale. If WS was rescaled to replacement level it would still be possible. Negative is also possible on BPM and even PER probably. You note that it has happened on EW / 484. Perils of linear scales and using 0 or .1 as average performance.
Re: Rookies 2019-20
Posted: Tue Dec 03, 2019 8:01 pm
by Mike G
So eWins register as negative for some guys who play 2 mpg or less. Here are the main ones:
Code: Select all
rookie tm Min PER WS/48 BPM e484
Brazdeikis NYK 42 1.3 -.172 -13.4 -.14
Poirier BOS 31 8.5 .026 -1.0 -.11
Cheatham NOP 20 -3.5 -.139 -11.6 -.67
Another 7 have played 10-17 total minutes.
Negative wins seem to be below 9.25 PER or -5.25 BPM. As such, these players tend to look even lower in the other stats.
Code: Select all
"wins" perW WS bpmW eW fRPM pts
Brazdeikis -.12 -.15 -.13 -.01 -6.0 -5
Poirier -.01 .02 .05 -.01 -5.8 -4
Cheatham -.09 -.06 -.05 -.03 -8.8 -4
The final 2 columns are "faux RPM" which correlates with eWins and RPM; and the +/- points ensuing in the minutes played.
It's realistic to suppose that a few experimental minutes are given to marginal players, many of whom don't work out.
Re: Rookies 2019-20
Posted: Sun Dec 22, 2019 7:08 pm
by Crow
So Garland is shooting poorly from everywhere other than 3 pt land. Weak assist, high turnovers.
Worst on team LA-RAPM and O-RAPM. Virtually tied for worst on D-RAPM.
Pretty lousy looking pick by the insiders there.
Lots of bad picks, including 3-7.
Hayes off to best start of lottery picks by several metrics.
Samanic pretty weak in the G league. Bad shooting, few assists, high turnovers. Maybe he isn't going coast to coast or iso against weak competition any more?
In weak drafts, bigs may not disappoint as much as over-hyped, over-confident perimeter prancers. Clarke, Gafford, Bitadze doing pretty well to very well.
Re: Rookies 2019-20
Posted: Tue Dec 31, 2019 4:53 pm
by Crow
Grant Williams with lousy scoring efficiency, weak rebounding and high turnovers.
Reddish even worse scoring efficiency, almost as bad on turnovers, meh on rebounding.
Will either turn it around in any of these ways? Maybe.
Re: Rookies 2019-20
Posted: Mon Jan 13, 2020 8:27 pm
by Dr Positivity
Hawks 2019 draft
Hunter -0.013 WS/48, -5.1 BPM
Reddish -0.058 WS/48, -5.8 BPM
Re: Rookies 2019-20
Posted: Tue Jan 14, 2020 12:23 am
by Crow
Schlenk not looking near as good as last spring. Don't know how hot the seat is but has to be very disppointing and troubling. Good for the tank if he is doing that and with consent / support. When things are this bad does that explanation fly?
Re: Rookies 2019-20
Posted: Tue Jan 21, 2020 11:41 pm
by Crow
Carson Edwards with the worst BPM among Celtics rookies. One of the worst LA-RAPM estimates in entire league.
Re: Rookies 2019-20
Posted: Thu Jan 23, 2020 6:21 am
by Crow
Zion arrives.
Re: Rookies 2019-20
Posted: Mon Feb 17, 2020 11:27 am
by Mike G
All Star Break!
PER and BPM are converted to "wins" equivalents, then averaged with Win Shares and eWins.
These avg "wins" are then projected to 82 games.
mpg are player minutes divided by team games. Players are projected to continue with mpg and rates to date.
Code: Select all
w/82 rookie tm mpg e484 PER WS/48 BPM
5.3 Brandon Clarke Mem 19 1.00 21.8 .190 2.5
5.1 Ja Morant Mem 27 1.02 18.4 .095 -0.4
4.1 Jaxson Hayes NOP 17 1.06 18.2 .176 1.8
3.6 Terence Davis Tor 17 .98 15.5 .150 1.6
3.0 PJ Washington Cha 26 .90 12.3 .054 -1.4
3.0 Kendrick Nunn Mia 28 .87 12.8 .051 -2.8
2.4 Matisse Thybulle Phl 17 .94 9.8 .092 1.9
2.2 Eric Paschall GSW 24 .56 13.7 .049 -3.8
2.0 Cameron Johnson Phx 15 .89 11.9 .082 -0.5
1.8 Rui Hachimura Was 16 .75 14.4 .063 -3.5
w/82 rookie tm mpg e484 PER WS/48 BPM
1.8 Tyler Herro Mia 24 .65 11.6 .039 -3.4
1.6 Nicolò Melli NOP 12 .79 12.0 .090 -0.5
1.6 Daniel Gafford Chi 8 .64 17.1 .153 2.1
1.4 Zion Williamson NOP 5 1.03 25.4 .153 0.5
1.4 Grant Williams Bos 15 .43 8.7 .082 -0.1
1.2 Chris Silva Mia 5 .63 17.2 .177 2.3
1.1 Jordan McLaughlin Min 7 1.09 14.8 .116 -2.0
1.1 Coby White Chi 24 .69 10.1 .005 -4.4
1.0 Cody Martin Cha 11 .67 10.9 .061 -2.1
1.0 Javonte Green Bos 7 .59 13.0 .123 -0.5
w/82 rookie tm mpg e484 PER WS/48 BPM
1.0 RJ Barrett NYK 25 .80 10.1 -.019 -4.3
.9 Jarrett Culver Min 24 .73 9.1 -.012 -3.4
.9 De'Andre Hunter Atl 30 .70 8.5 -.003 -4.4
.9 Kevin Porter Cle 18 .42 10.8 .010 -3.4
.7 Matt Thomas Tor 5 .72 13.2 .137 -0.9
.7 Garrison Mathews Was 4 1.22 14.1 .144 -1.1
Rookies project to total 58 "wins".