APBRmetrics

I am seeing a lot of players in top part of draft lottery on internet sites that on early look appear to me to reaches. I'd feel alright drafting 6-12 or even 20th or later. The second round will have good picks available. It might be easier to have some guys gone and not have to worry about whether they are worth the risk. There is always some case to try to get #1 (though hard to get) but I probably would not be intending a big effort to get to say 3 or 5.

It is pretty obvious that some draft pickers are not giving much weight to overall metrics.

Potential is important but current performance establishes the baseline and should affect potential guesses.

Of the players 40-60 at Tankathon, I'd want to learn more about Hughes and Simanic. 20-39, Reed, Bey, Nwora, Agbaji. 1-19, Okongwu, Toppin. Haliburton.

I'm a big believer in non-freshman guards: this season like Haliburton, Winston, and Dru Smith all to various degrees.

I'll try to look at Dru Smith video later.

Cons
-slower shot release
-has a bit of a turnover problem

Pros
-love his pace variation with the ball in his hands
-capable passer
-active on defense
-pretty good frame

Neutral
-not a shooter per se, but can't leave him alone out there either

Based in one quick video, I don't think his draft chances are high. But I'll leave that to the experts.

May to play his way from summer league to training camp or thru the g-league.

"Advanced" handle & passing really seems to get a lot of attention with internet draft watchers. It doesn't immediately impress me as much as them unless it is efficient handle & passing and if it doesn't lead to strong own & hopefully team shooting / scoring.

If picking in top 5, I'd actively consider trading down. Not sure who would be buying, other than to say not so smart or desperate.

Okongwu, Toppin. Haliburton, Reed are guys I like. Also interested in learning more about Jalen Smith and Jahmi'us Ramsey (in addition to those named previously).

Very good chance that top 5 of 2020 draft will be weakest in at least 10 years. 2019's top 5 may have 2 stars. TBD. 2020's top 5 may equal but could have less. Weak class and probably unwise picks at the top.

LaMelo Ball to Knicks or Hornets? Would be typical screw ups. To Pistons? I dunno if they would. Probably doesn't work.

I'd assume a lot of organizations will pass for various reasons. Who goes for it?

Ball over Hayes? I wouldn't.

If I were advising Warriors, I'd trade down or possibly out of draft for a helpful vet.

If you want a guard at top of draft, I'd favor Haliburton and then Hayes.

Hawks could go several ways, depending on pick # or what they trade into. I would not take Anthony, though they may target him.

5 of the Tankathon top 10 seems over-rated to me. GM mistake rate probably will be high again for top picks.

I like Jalen Smith. Reed. Perry.

What teams want or really want traditional PFs?

They may go lower than I'd think because of GM not having that type on top of their shopping lists.

Probably will be pretty values compared to many hyped perimeters.

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thoughts?