Big picture on player quality for teams
Posted: Thu Mar 19, 2020 1:29 am
Using BPM and RPM as quick, rough estimates for player quality, I identified some big picture findings for teams:
BPM and RPM are close to agreement that there are about 50 guards plus 1 or better.
On frontcourt players, current version RPM estimates only 17 plus 1 or better players. BPM estimates about 50.
Using these averages and rounding off some, it boils down to about 2 guards and 1 frontcourt player at or above this quality level.
Assuming these players tend to play around 32 minutes per game, then probably somewhat less than 40% of minutes get filled with such players across the league. Injuries and short minute high performers might pull this down to somewhere around 35% of total league minutes.
Some teams will fill more and less. It might be interesting to see these numbers but I will probably only look incrementally, later and may or may not write about it.
In the second tier, I am putting players with plus 1 to -1 estimates. BPM and RPM are in rough agreement that there are about 250 such players.
That makes 3 good plus players and a bit more than 8 around average players for teams if evenly distributed That should generally fill out most rotations. Some teams may be playing guys for developmental purposes or roster shortcomings, known and unrecognized by them.
That leaves 150 or more players further below -1 estimates.
In rough agreement with Pareto assumptions about 20% provide most of the positive impact. How much of the money they are actually getting would be another worthwhile check, on another day perhaps. How much to pay the second tier? Not much but of course some case sensitivity is understandable. Hard to justify in current terms paying players below -1 much over minimum though some will be acceptably if they provided better performance in past or are reasonably expected to do so in future.
How many good plus players are relatively cheap to their value and scarcity? How may second tier players are relatively cheap or expensive? How many below average players are overpaid? All that could be for later work or self-check by the reader if interested.
This data is another argument for trying 3 guard lineups.
The market might be cool for centers, especially near replacement level ones, but the market should be hot for plus 1 bigs and not that weak for near neutral bigs (due to scarcity) or smaller guys who can do big man chores.
BPM and RPM are close to agreement that there are about 50 guards plus 1 or better.
On frontcourt players, current version RPM estimates only 17 plus 1 or better players. BPM estimates about 50.
Using these averages and rounding off some, it boils down to about 2 guards and 1 frontcourt player at or above this quality level.
Assuming these players tend to play around 32 minutes per game, then probably somewhat less than 40% of minutes get filled with such players across the league. Injuries and short minute high performers might pull this down to somewhere around 35% of total league minutes.
Some teams will fill more and less. It might be interesting to see these numbers but I will probably only look incrementally, later and may or may not write about it.
In the second tier, I am putting players with plus 1 to -1 estimates. BPM and RPM are in rough agreement that there are about 250 such players.
That makes 3 good plus players and a bit more than 8 around average players for teams if evenly distributed That should generally fill out most rotations. Some teams may be playing guys for developmental purposes or roster shortcomings, known and unrecognized by them.
That leaves 150 or more players further below -1 estimates.
In rough agreement with Pareto assumptions about 20% provide most of the positive impact. How much of the money they are actually getting would be another worthwhile check, on another day perhaps. How much to pay the second tier? Not much but of course some case sensitivity is understandable. Hard to justify in current terms paying players below -1 much over minimum though some will be acceptably if they provided better performance in past or are reasonably expected to do so in future.
How many good plus players are relatively cheap to their value and scarcity? How may second tier players are relatively cheap or expensive? How many below average players are overpaid? All that could be for later work or self-check by the reader if interested.
This data is another argument for trying 3 guard lineups.
The market might be cool for centers, especially near replacement level ones, but the market should be hot for plus 1 bigs and not that weak for near neutral bigs (due to scarcity) or smaller guys who can do big man chores.