APBRmetrics

I was checking out the BPM stats on Rodman, and they don't capture his impact at all. Not even defensively.

Anyone have a clue as to why this is?

Jinxed wrote: ↑Mon Apr 27, 2020 3:53 pm I was checking out the BPM stats on Rodman, and they don't capture his impact at all. Not even defensively.

Anyone have a clue as to why this is?

That's a great question. His stats are tremendous outliers, which box-score stats struggle with. So BPM will be challenged, regardless.

What BPM sees is that rebounding stats are more about assignment than about actual contribution. In other words--a lot of rebounds don't depend on the player, really. (Another player with the same assignment would get around the same number of rebounds).

Now, it is likely that Rodman is adding rebounds that really are "his". But BPM is 100% linear...so all rebounds count the same...a small amount. This linear value per rebound is what an "average" rebound is worth to an "average" player at Rodman's position.

It's a crude instrument.

Shot defense is crude in every metric. Some more than others.


(DRAPM factors are most focused. Matchup opponent scoring only and other opponents only DRAPM factor splits might add some information to the overall DRAPM factors and the player tracking data. Probably prior-informed.)

In the old BPM, Rodman was 3.0 for his RS career, with 36.5 VORP
In BPM2, he's 0.9 with 21.0 vorp.

Among players in the BPM era, he ranks #152 in RS minutes played and #190 in VORP. Previously he ranked #63, so that is quite a beatdown.
With the old BPM, he ranked 50th in playoff VORP (5.1), and now he is (again) 190th (1.8)

For what it's worth, PER rates Rodman even worse than BPM2 in both RS and PO. Win Shares still likes him, though all 3 note a sharp downturn from RS to PO.