Playoff overachievers in BPM2

[Mike G]

Ranked by total postseason points (estimated by BPM) beyond what the player achieved in regular seasons.
Assumes 100 possessions per 48 minutes.

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=(BPM+)*Min/100        regular seasons          playoffs
pts+   Player        PER   WS/48   BPM       Min   PER   WS/48   BPM
143  Isiah Thomas    18.1   .109   2.6      4216   19.8   .143   6.0
142  Michael Jordan  27.9   .250   9.2      7474   28.6   .255  11.1
131  LeBron James    27.5   .235   8.9     10049   28.3   .244  10.2
126  Hakeem Olajuwon 23.6   .177   4.7      5749   25.7   .189   6.9
123  Robert Horry    13.4   .118   1.9      6823   14.4   .128   3.7

103  Derek Fisher    11.7   .091  -0.9      6856   12.0   .102   0.6
103  Rajon Rondo     16.0   .106   1.3      3944   18.3   .127   3.9
92   Draymond Green  15.1   .132   2.8      4377   16.9   .154   4.9
87 Anfernee Hardaway 17.4   .125   2.5      2640   19.8   .140   5.8
83   Dirk Nowitzki   22.4   .193   4.5      5895   23.8   .188   5.9

pts+   Player        PER   WS/48   BPM       Min   PER   WS/48   BPM
80   Bryon Russell   12.6   .115   0.3      3081   13.6   .131   2.9
80   Tayshaun Prince 13.7   .096   0.3      4977   13.6   .108   1.9
80   Reggie Miller   18.4   .176   3.5      5308   19.5   .180   5.0
76  Richard Hamilton 16.5   .102  -0.2      5039   16.3   .111   1.3
69   Kobe Bryant     22.9   .170   4.6      8641   22.4   .157   5.4

66   Boris Diaw      12.9   .086   0.1      3144   14.7   .106   2.2
65   Scottie Pippen  18.6   .146   4.1      8105   18.4   .140   4.9
65   Baron Davis     17.8   .106   2.6      1851   21.4   .176   6.1
65   Shawn Kemp      19.1   .147   0.6      2937   20.5   .155   2.8
64   Jerome Kersey   14.9   .119   0.7      3394   16.4   .124   2.6

pts+   Player        PER   WS/48   BPM       Min   PER   WS/48   BPM
62   Horace Grant    16.0   .147   1.4      6172   15.7   .156   2.4
59  Chauncey Billups 18.8   .176   3.2      5321   19.1   .186   4.3
58   Gus Williams    18.5   .127   2.9      3215   20.4   .150   4.7
58   John Starks     14.0   .102   0.8      3035   14.7   .123   2.7
57   Michael Cooper  12.8   .107   1.2      4744   13.2   .117   2.4

54   Ben Wallace     15.5   .140   2.5      4524   16.2   .164   3.7
54   Ron Harper      15.6   .101   1.8      3000   15.2   .130   3.6
53   Moses Malone    22.3   .178   1.7      3796   21.4   .173   3.1
53   James Worthy    17.7   .130   1.9      5297   18.3   .135   2.9
51   Kevin McHale    20.0   .180   2.5      5716   19.4   .174   3.4

http://bkref.com/tiny/u7osG

[Crow]

Baron Davis with biggest numerical increase. I Thomas second.

[Mike G]

Actually THE biggest BPM increase is Lester Conner, among the top 500 in RegSea VORP. But he had just 94 career PO minutes.
Next are Jokic, Spud Webb, Jared Dudley, and Channing Frye, all with 500-800 PO minutes.
The top 500 average +1.47 BPM in RS and +1.56 in PO. So the lesser players bring it down to zero, and the disparity grows a bit in PO.

I used BPM for this exercise, because it accounts for the level of the competition. I was surprised to see a few making the top part of this list: Kobe, Dirk, McHale, Pippen; and their PER and WS do not seem to corroborate. But they were in a dominant East or West Conference, where there were few easy PO opponents.

Also this is kind of a test of the new BPM. Was playoff Isiah truly better than playoff Duncan, Shaq, Dirk, Kobe, Wade, Garnett, Pippen ... ?

[Crow]

I have always had concerns that BPM over-rewarded assists. Now there is an issue with probably under-rewarding rebounds. And with it's weakness on shot defense. I am not that interested in digging into it right now to possibly fight about it. Especially with regard to history.

RAPM and playoff RAPM... IF done right, would be (or would have been) important to me.

[Mike G]

Here we look at active players, so designated by b-r.com
Gleaned from lists of active (top 100) leaders in playoff minutes and BPM, regular-season min. and BPM.
Of those qualified by any of those 4 leader lists, best and worst BPM-differentials RS to PO.

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po+    Player        POM  rBPM  pBPM      po+    Player         POM  rBPM  pBPM
5.8 Anthony Edwards 1075   0.9   6.7     -3.6   Karl-A Towns   1094   4.5   0.9
4.1   De'Aaron Fox   270   0.9   5.0     -3.6   Andre Drummond  423   1.2  -2.4
4.0   Alec Burks     527  -0.6   3.4     -3.1 D'Angelo Russell 1002   0.7  -2.4
3.0 Bismack Biyombo  718  -2.5   0.5     -2.9   Joel Embiid    2083   7.0   4.1
2.7   Jamal Murray  2522   0.9   3.6     -2.8  Malcolm Brogdon 1201   1.4  -1.4
2.1  Grant Williams 1146  -1.9   0.2     -2.7   Julius Randle   510   0.9  -1.8
2.1   Caleb Martin  1079  -1.2   0.9     -2.5   Ish Smith       230  -1.8  -4.3
2.1   Devin Booker  1880   1.2   3.2     -2.4 Domantas Sabonis  511   3.2   0.8
2.0 Duncan Robinson 1337  -0.9   1.1     -2.4   Tim Hardaway    931  -1.1  -3.5
2.0   John Wall     1434   2.2   4.2     -2.2 Danilo Gallinari 1374   1.7  -0.5
1.9   Terry Rozier  1234   0.6   2.5     -1.7   Kevin Love     2349   3.3   1.5
1.9   Gabe Vincent  1178  -3.3  -1.4     -1.7   Buddy Hield      51   0.4  -1.3
1.9  Brandon Ingram  381   0.1   2.0     -1.4  Jordan Clarkson  954  -0.9  -2.3
1.8   Derrick Rose  1962   1.3   3.1     -1.4   Rudy Gobert    2313   3.4   2.0
1.8  Derrick Favors  875   0.9   2.7     -1.3   Mason Plumlee  1050   1.3   0.0
1.8   Ro. Covington  900   0.5   2.3     -1.1   Bam Adebayo    2556   2.6   1.5
1.8  Draymond Green 5447   2.5   4.3     -1.1   Jerami Grant   1073  -0.4  -1.4
1.8   Cory Joseph   1193  -1.2   0.6     -1.0   CJ McCollum    2380   1.4   0.4
1.7   P.J. Tucker   3175  -1.0   0.8     -0.9   Myles Turner   1348   0.8  -0.1
1.7  Reggie Jackson 2081  -0.6   1.2     -0.9   DeMar DeRozan  2368   0.9   0.0

A number of role players who have stepped up and a few who haven't.
1073+ playoff minutes: https://www.basketball-reference.com/le ... ive_p.html
Just 72 in PO BPM list: https://www.basketball-reference.com/le ... ive_p.html

[Crow]

1000+ playoff minutes, more credible. Under 500, less reliable.

[Mike G]

Of this group of 131 players, highest and lowest % of minutes which have been in playoffs:

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po%    minutes        RSM    POM       po%   Player         RSM    POM
.21   Gabe Vincent   4304   1178      .003  Buddy Hield    18317    51
.20   Jaylen Brown  16307   4122      .01   Zach LaVine    18859   153
.20  Michael Porter  7443   1880      .01   Ish Smith      15494   230
.20   Jayson Tatum  17561   4403      .02   De'Aaron Fox   15420   270
.20   Max Strus      6611   1611      .02   Rudy Gay       34561   618
.19  Draymond Green 23299   5447      .02  Andre Drummond  23469   423
.18  Klay Thompson  25844   5830      .02  Nikola Vučević  28225   516
.18  Kawhi Leonard  22103   4929      .02  Justin Holiday  15717   292
.17   LeBron James  56597  11858      .02   James Johnson  15524   320
.17   Danny Green   20899   4271      .02  Brandon Ingram  15721   381
.17   Marcus Smart  18046   3572      .02   Julius Randle  20512   510
.16   Al Horford    34259   6295      .03   Evan Fournier  19514   566
.15  Derrick White  11507   2063      .03 Domantas Sabonis 17470   511
.15   George Hill   24501   4344      .03   Alec Burks     16713   527
.15   Kevin Durant  38972   6893      .03   Kelly Oubre    15664   556
.15   Jamal Murray  14378   2522      .04  Gordon Hayward  25654  1004
.15   Bam Adebayo   14680   2556      .04   Robin Lopez    20937   850
.15   Kevon Looney   9167   1592      .04  Bismack Biyombo 16384   718
.15   Caleb Martin   6340   1079      .04  Derrick Favors  19202   875
.14  Stephen Curry  32723   5492      .04   Tim Hardaway   20109   931
.14   Jimmy Butler  27044   4511               

Average for these players is .091 -- which is exactly a 10:1 ratio, RS:PO

We can guesstimate extra wins -- bonus wins -- wins beyond what regular seasons would predict.
win+ = (poBPM - rsBPM)*minutes/3000
3000 is kind of random but I think in the ballpark*. Whatever the denominator, the ranking doesn't change.
po+ = poBPM - rsBPM

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win+   overach.      POMin   po+      win+   underach.    POMin    po+
5.5   LeBron James   11858   1.4     -2.0   Joel Embiid    2083   -2.9
3.2   Draymond Green  5447   1.8     -1.3   Kevin Love     2349   -1.7
2.4   Kawhi Leonard   4929   1.5     -1.3   Kyle Lowry     4466    -.9
2.3   Jamal Murray    2522   2.7     -1.3   Karl-A Towns   1094   -3.6
2.1  Anthony Edwards  1075   5.8     -1.1  Malcolm Brogdon 1201   -2.8
1.8   P.J. Tucker     3175   1.7     -1.1   Kyrie Irving   3595    -.9
1.6   Giannis A       2854   1.7     -1.1   Rudy Gobert    2313   -1.4
1.3   Devin Booker    1880   2.1     -1.0 D'Angelo Russell 1002   -3.1
1.2   Jaylen Brown    4122    .9     -1.0 Danilo Gallinari 1374   -2.2
1.2   Jrue Holiday    3371   1.1      -.9   Bam Adebayo    2556   -1.1
1.2   Reggie Jackson  2081   1.7      -.8   CJ McCollum    2380   -1.0
1.2   Derrick Rose    1962   1.8      -.7   Tim Hardaway    931   -2.4
1.1  Tristan Thompson 2616   1.3      -.7   DeMar DeRozan  2368    -.9
1.1   Al Horford      6295    .5      -.6   Paul George    4444    -.4
1.1   Jimmy Butler    4511    .7      -.6  Wesley Matthews 2033    -.9
1.0  Khris Middleton  3005   1.0      -.5   Chris Paul     5442    -.3
1.0   Stephen Curry   5492    .5      -.5   Andre Drummond  423   -3.6
.9   John Wall        1434   2.0      -.5   Julius Randle   510   -2.7
.9   Jayson Tatum     4403    .6      -.5  Michael Porter  1880    -.7
.9   Jalen Brunson    1704   1.6      -.5   Mason Plumlee  1050   -1.3

LeBron with as much overachievement as the next two guys.
Some make this list thanks to the bulk of their playoff experience coming during their prime -- Wall, Rose, Thompson. Others on the downside because they were mostly past their peak -- Love, Lowry, Drummond?

* - A bigger denominator gives expected extra wins against playoff teams. A smaller one yields a larger number of wins vs average teams. This 3000 is somewhere in between.

[Crow]

Traditional centers scarce but not completely absent.

[Mike G]

Centers are scarce among the Overs but not in the Under side.
Jokic (+.89) and B Lopez (+.77) would be top 30 also.

The total for 131 qualifying players is an additional 39 wins. Average BPM are 1.22 in RS and 1.57 in PO.
I wonder how much their playoff BPM might be inflated by playing against weary or damaged opponents. Those opponents are considered by BPM to carry their regular season BPM thru 35 or 40 or 45 min/game.