APBRmetrics

Posted: **Sun Aug 30, 2020 4:07 pm**

Preview from round 1:

. Celtics      min    PER   WS/48   BPM
Jayson Tatum   145   28.2   .283   11.0
Kemba Walker   131   27.1   .281    9.2
Jaylen Brown   150   17.3   .156    3.0
Grant Williams  39   23.7   .376   11.1
Brad Wanamaker  69   11.9   .123    1.6
Daniel Theis    90   10.8   .083   -1.5
Enes Kanter     61   13.8   .131   -3.4
Marcus Smart   143    8.1   .075   -3.0
Gordon Hayward  34   14.3   .096    3.4
Tacko Fall       3   40.3   .412   12.7
Javonte Green    6   14.4   .211    2.7
Romeo Langford  37    3.5   .025   -4.1
Robert Williams 22   -0.3  -.045  -13.0
Semi Ojeleye    29   -3.8  -.052   -9.6
. total  Bos   959   16.3   .161   2.58

. Raptors      min    PER   WS/48   BPM
Fred VanVleet  133   24.9   .327   10.3
Serge Ibaka     94   32.9   .393    9.4
Norman Powell   96   23.1   .261    5.1
Kyle Lowry     119   16.0   .199    2.5
Pascal Siakam  134   16.5   .140   -0.9
OG Anunoby     130   10.7   .139   -0.9
Terence Davis   53   21.7   .267    4.7
Matt Thomas     43   17.4   .252    3.7
Stanley Johnson 16   23.9   .315    4.0
Ro. H-Jefferson 30   14.4   .184   -3.3
Marc Gasol      80    7.8   .072   -3.9
Paul Watson      9   12.8   .169    0.5
Malcolm Miller   5    1.7   .021  -10.8
Chris Boucher   18   -0.8  -.003  -10.8
. total        960   18.3   .218   2.73

https://www.basketball-reference.com/pl ... anced.html
The Raptors' .218 team WS/48 indicates they totaled 4.36 Win Shares for their 4 games vs the Nets -- leaving Brk with minus-0.36.
The aggregate BPM for these teams is closer than for PER or WS, indicating the Sixers were a stronger opponent. The difference of 0.15 (multiplied by 5) suggests Tor has been playing .75 ppg better thus far in the playoffs.

Posted: **Mon Aug 31, 2020 3:31 pm**

Celtics 1, Raptors 0
112 - 94
Pythagorean wins .91 - .09 , eWins .71 - .29

Code: Select all

eWin   per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.18   Kemba Walker   Bos   32  .750   28.3   3.4  11.3   1.2   2.4   .0   2.76
.17   Marcus Smart   Bos   31  .875   37.9   7.0   4.7   1.2   6.2   .0   2.61
.13   Daniel Theis   Bos   26  .565   22.1  20.7   1.4   1.4   5.9  2.8   2.39
.12   Jayson Tatum   Bos   37  .568   24.1   8.8   1.9   1.0   4.2   .0   1.54
.10   Fred VanVleet  Tor   38  .306    7.4   3.8   6.7   5.8   1.0   .0   1.22

.09  Robert Williams Bos   19  .833   24.2   8.3   3.3   1.7   1.8  3.4   2.37
.08   Kyle Lowry     Tor   35  .515   17.3   6.2   7.3   1.1   5.3   .0   1.04
.07   Jaylen Brown   Bos   31  .436   20.1   5.8   4.7    .0   2.5   .0   1.15
.07   Serge Ibaka    Tor   26  .625   18.4  11.4   1.1    .0   1.3   .0   1.30
.05   OG Anunoby     Tor   33  .750   13.2   7.7    .0    .0   1.1  2.2    .74

eWin   per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.03   Marc Gasol     Tor   25  .438    8.4   8.6   2.5   1.5   1.5   .0    .50
.01   Terence Davis  Tor   13  .700   18.9   4.7   2.1    .0   4.8   .0    .44
.01   Pascal Siakam  Tor   33  .361   11.0   3.3   1.9   2.2   2.2   .0    .17
-.00  Brad Wanamaker Bos   29  .500    8.7   6.9   1.1   1.2   3.7   .0   -.07
-.04  Semi Ojeleye   Bos   22  .300    3.1    .0    .0   1.5    .0   .0   -.80
-.04  Norman Powell  Tor   27  .417    8.8   1.2    .0    .0   1.2   .0   -.65

shooting: Bos .599 - .477 Tor
rebounds: Bos 50 - 40 Tor
turnovers: Tor 14 - 23 Bos

Posted: **Mon Aug 31, 2020 5:32 pm**

Basketball Intelligence: Today's Best NBA Reporting And Analysis: http://basketballintelligence.net/2020/ ... s-8-31-20/

Posted: **Mon Aug 31, 2020 7:29 pm**

First round summaries of the other 2nd round series:

Code: Select all

. Miami Heat     min    PER   WS/48   BPM
Bam Adebayo      137   18.4   .160    2.0
Goran Dragić     137   18.9   .143    1.9
Jimmy Butler     135   20.5   .178    2.6
Tyler Herro      129   15.9   .175    0.9
Andre Iguodala   107   11.8   .170    2.6
Jae Crowder      102   14.6   .176    1.6
Duncan Robinson  101   14.0   .163    0.7
Kelly Olynyk      55   17.3   .146    2.7
Derrick Jones     43   13.5   .180    3.8
Kendrick Nunn     14   19.3   .245    6.0
totals           960   16.6   .167    2.0
            
. Mil. Bucks     min    PER   WS/48   BPM
Antetokounmpo    159   32.9   .302   12.4
Khris Middleton  159    9.0   .016   -4.0
Brook Lopez      151   14.1   .140    1.3
Eric Bledsoe     131   16.4   .147    3.1
Wesley Matthews  117    9.9   .135    1.5
Pat Connaughton  106   12.0   .174    3.2
George Hill      111   15.5   .212    1.6
Kyle Korver       75   10.5   .100   -1.6
Donte DiVincenzo  67   10.5   .055   -2.6
Marvin Williams   76   13.5   .175    3.7
Robin Lopez       21    9.3   .148   -1.2
Ersan İlyasova    23    6.8   .032   -2.6
Sterling Brown     4   -7.7  -.178  -16.3
totals          1200   14.9   .184    2.6

BPM has gone missing from b-r.com, so these Milwaukee numbers are 80% of their 4-game BPM (which I had recorded) and 20% their single-game bpm from Gm5.
PER seems to miss the boat on the MIl-Orl series. The losers' PER totals 12.1

Meanwhile, both WS and BPM think the Heat go 10 deep with above-avg players.

Posted: **Tue Sep 01, 2020 11:41 am**

Heat 1 , Bucks 0
115 - 104
Pyth wins .79 - .21 , eWins .65 - .35

Code: Select all

eWin   per36 rates    tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.27   Jimmy Butler    Mia   36  .755   49.1   4.8   1.9   2.0   3.1  1.0   3.64
.20   Goran Dragić    Mia   33  .730   35.4   7.8   5.1   1.1   2.2   .0   2.91
.15   Bam Adebayo     Mia   38  .462   10.4  19.1   5.3   1.9   1.9   .0   1.92
.14   Brook Lopez     Mil   28  1.00   38.0   1.4    .0   1.3   1.3  2.7   2.45
.13  Khris Middleton  Mil   37  .583   26.0   6.1   3.9   2.0   4.0   .0   1.67

.10   Antetokounmpo   Mil   36  .500   16.1  10.5   7.2   1.0   6.1  1.0   1.37
.05   Kelly Olynyk    Mia    8  1.00   23.1   9.5   7.4   4.1    .0   .0   2.75
.04   Kyle Korver     Mil   17  .611   19.2   6.1    .0    .0   2.0  2.0    .99
.01  Wesley Matthews  Mil   24  .700   10.6   1.6    .0   1.6   1.6  3.1    .25
.01  Marvin Williams  Mil   21  .455    6.2   3.3   1.3   1.6    .0  1.6    .14

eWin   per36 rates    tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.00   Kendrick Nunn   Mia   16  .333    9.4    .0   3.8   2.1   2.1   .0    .07
.00   Jae Crowder     Mia   35  .563    9.3  11.1    .0    .0   4.2   .0    .03
-.00  Tyler Herro     Mia   29  .458   11.5   4.2   1.1    .0   2.4   .0   -.02
-.00 Donte DiVincenzo Mil   14  .250    1.4   9.8   3.7    .0   2.4   .0   -.10
-.01  Duncan Robinson Mia   26  .444    4.8   1.7   3.9    .0    .0   .0   -.25

-.01  Andre Iguodala  Mia   19  .250    2.2   8.3    .0   1.8   3.5  1.8   -.38
-.02  Pat Connaughton Mil   25  .200    1.3   8.5   1.1    .0   1.4   .0   -.40
-.05  George Hill     Mil   36  .533    7.3   1.1   3.2    .0   4.1   .0   -.61

shooting: Mil .591 - 590 Mia
rebounds: Mia 46 - 34 Mil
turnovers: Mia 16 - 19 Mil

Posted: **Tue Sep 01, 2020 4:41 pm**

Basketball Intelligence: Today's Best NBA Reporting And Analysis: http://basketballintelligence.net/2020/ ... is-9-1-20/

Posted: **Wed Sep 02, 2020 1:10 pm**

Celtics 2 , Raptors 0
avg score 107.0 - 96.5
pyth wins 1.60 - .40 , eWins 1.30 - .70

Code: Select all

eWin   per36 rates    tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast  Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.44   Jayson Tatum    Bos   40  .647   31.5   8.1   3.4   .9   3.8   .0   2.67
.25   Kemba Walker    Bos   35  .538   19.7   4.8   6.7   .5   2.2   .0   1.72
.24   Marcus Smart    Bos   35  .784   28.8   4.8   2.4   .5   5.4  1.1   1.65
.20   Serge Ibaka     Tor   27  .667   20.5  11.2   1.5   .0   1.9  1.3   1.85
.18   Kyle Lowry      Tor   38  .452   15.1   5.4   5.8  2.5   3.4   .5   1.16

.17   Jaylen Brown    Bos   34  .485   18.3   7.3   3.0  1.6   3.4  1.1   1.25
.17  Robert Williams  Bos   18  .875   25.4   8.1   1.6   .9   1.8  2.6   2.32
.17   Daniel Theis    Bos   28  .485   10.4  16.0   1.8  1.3   2.7  3.3   1.47
.16   Fred VanVleet   Tor   41  .375   10.7   4.1   5.3  3.2   1.8   .5    .96
.13   Pascal Siakam   Tor   38  .417   11.9   5.3   3.0  2.4   1.5   .5    .79

eWin   per36 rates    tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast  Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.12   OG Anunoby      Tor   36  .744   15.0   7.2    .0   .5   1.0  1.0    .78
.02   Marc Gasol      Tor   24  .500    9.4   7.7   1.8  1.6   3.1  1.6    .18
-.01  Terence Davis   Tor   10  .500   10.4   4.6   2.4   .0   3.1   .0   -.32
-.01  Chris Boucher   Tor    7  .500    3.1   6.4    .0   .0    .0   .0   -.50
-.03  Brad Wanamaker  Bos   19  .500    6.1   7.0   1.6   .9   3.5   .9   -.41

-.04  Grant Williams  Bos   14  .500    1.9   4.6   2.0   .0    .0   .0   -.78
-.07  Norman Powell   Tor   20  .389    7.2    .8    .6   .0    .8   .0   -.81
-.08  Semi Ojeleye    Bos   16  .188    1.3    .0    .0  1.9    .0   .0  -1.14

shooting: Bos .588 - .487 Tor
rebounds: Bos 47.0 - 40.5 Tor
turnovers: Tor 13.0 - 20.0 Bos

Posted: **Wed Sep 02, 2020 7:24 pm**

Basketball Intelligence: Today's Best NBA Reporting And Analysis: http://basketballintelligence.net/2020/ ... is-9-2-20/

Posted: **Thu Sep 03, 2020 9:21 am**

Heat 2 , Bucks 0
avg score 115.5 - 109.0
Pyth wins 1.37 - .63 , eWins 1.18 - .82

Code: Select all

eWin   per36 rates    tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.35   Jimmy Butler    Mia   36  .688   29.3   3.7   3.7   2.6   2.6   .5   2.31
.33   Antetokounmpo   Mil   36  .553   22.2  13.0   5.0    .5   4.1  1.0   2.20
.33   Goran Dragić    Mia   34  .649   28.3   6.3   4.4   1.7   2.2   .0   2.34
.27  Khris Middleton  Mil   35  .567   24.7   6.7   5.6   1.1   3.7   .0   1.86
.24   Bam Adebayo     Mia   36  .540   13.0  14.0   4.2   1.6   2.1   .0   1.60

.21   Brook Lopez     Mil   30  .909   24.9   5.2    .0   1.2   1.2  1.9   1.69
.11   Kelly Olynyk    Mia   12  .938   25.1  10.1   2.5   1.4   1.4  1.4   2.40
.07   Tyler Herro     Mia   31  .538   13.5   4.7   2.5    .0   1.1   .0    .55
.06   Jae Crowder     Mia   36  .543   10.9   8.1    .9   1.0   2.1   .0    .43
.05   Eric Bledsoe    Mil   16  .516   16.3   8.9   2.0    .0   3.6   .0    .76

eWin   per36 rates    tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.03   Kyle Korver     Mil   14  .680   16.6   3.8    .0    .0   1.2  1.2    .60
.02  Duncan Robinson  Mia   26  .567   10.6   3.0   1.9   1.4   1.4   .0    .16
.01   Andre Iguodala  Mia   15  .400    5.0   6.8   1.9   2.2   2.2  1.1    .10
.00   George Hill     Mil   31  .629   11.9   2.5   2.4    .6   2.9   .0    .03
.00  Marvin Williams  Mil   21  .360    4.1   5.9    .6   1.6    .0   .8    .02

.00  Donte DiVincenzo Mil   11  .167     .7   7.7   4.8   1.5   1.5   .0    .03
-.02  Kendrick Nunn   Mia   13  .364    7.5    .0   3.3   1.2   2.5   .0   -.36
-.03  Pat Connaughton Mil   19  .222    1.6   8.5    .7    .9   1.8   .0   -.37
-.05  Wesley Matthews Mil   27  .423    5.4   3.6    .0   1.4   2.8  1.4   -.47

shooting: Mia .594 - .566 Mil
rebounds: 42.0 - 42.0
turnovers: Mia 13.0 - 16.5 Mil

Posted: **Thu Sep 03, 2020 5:57 pm**

Basketball Intelligence: Today's Best NBA Reporting And Analysis: http://basketballintelligence.net/2020/ ... is-9-3-20/

Posted: **Fri Sep 04, 2020 12:58 pm**

Celtics 2 , Raptors 1
avg score 105.7 - 99.0
Pyth wins 2.11 - .89 , eWins 1.81 - 1.19

Code: Select all

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.51   Jayson Tatum   Bos   40  .551   23.4   8.2   3.6    .9   2.9   .0   2.05
.49   Kemba Walker   Bos   36  .627   25.0   4.2   4.8   1.4   2.1   .0   2.16
.39   Kyle Lowry     Tor   41  .520   19.5   5.2   5.1   2.1   3.0   .3   1.55
.32   Jaylen Brown   Bos   36  .520   18.6   8.9   2.3   1.0   3.6  2.1   1.44
.24  Robert Williams Bos   17  .828   21.6  10.8   2.7    .7   2.0  2.6   2.31

.23   Fred VanVleet  Tor   41  .437   14.6   3.7   4.7   2.1   2.7   .3    .91
.23   Daniel Theis   Bos   29  .510   10.3  13.7   1.8    .9   1.8  2.6   1.28
.20   Marcus Smart   Bos   36  .614   20.5   5.0   2.6   1.0   4.7   .7    .92
.20   Serge Ibaka    Tor   25  .567   14.9  10.1   1.7    .5   2.3  1.8   1.26
.19   OG Anunoby     Tor   39  .721   12.6   7.7    .2   1.3    .9  1.3    .79

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.18   Pascal Siakam  Tor   38  .434   12.6   6.0   2.4   1.9   1.6   .6    .76
.09   Marc Gasol     Tor   24  .511   11.0   8.5   2.3   1.0   2.1  1.0    .58
-.04  Brad Wanamaker Bos   16  .571    9.0   5.5   1.7    .7   4.2   .7   -.39
-.06  Norman Powell  Tor   18  .468    9.7   1.2    .9    .0    .6   .0   -.51
-.09  Semi Ojeleye   Bos   13  .333    3.0    .0    .0   1.7    .0   .0  -1.06
-.09  Grant Williams Bos   15  .500    4.0   2.9   1.2    .0    .7   .7   -.98

shooting: Bos .575 - .505 Tor
rebounds: Bos 46.0 - 40.0 Tor
turnovers: Tor 13.0 - 18.3 Bos

Posted: **Fri Sep 04, 2020 5:29 pm**

Basketball Intelligence: Today's Best NBA Reporting And Analysis: http://basketballintelligence.net/2020/ ... is-9-4-20/

Posted: **Sat Sep 05, 2020 10:13 am**

Heat 3 , Bucks 0
avg score 115.3 - 106.0
Pyth wins 2.26 - .74 , eWins 1.88 - 1.12

Code: Select all

eWin   per36 rates    tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.62   Jimmy Butler    Mia   36  .680   32.5   4.9   4.5   2.1   2.5   .3   2.76
.53   Antetokounmpo   Mil   36  .489   20.9  13.9   5.7    .7   3.8  1.4   2.39
.45   Bam Adebayo     Mia   36  .644   17.1  14.6   3.9   1.0   2.1   .7   2.02
.41   Goran Dragić    Mia   34  .607   23.6   5.8   4.1   1.8   1.8   .4   1.95
.38  Khris Middleton  Mil   35  .556   21.9   5.3   5.5   1.4   2.4   .3   1.70

.26   Brook Lopez     Mil   33  .765   21.4   5.3    .0   1.1   1.9  1.9   1.29
.16   Jae Crowder     Mia   35  .600   13.1   6.7   2.3    .7   1.4   .0    .71
.12   Tyler Herro     Mia   31  .513   13.3   6.0   2.8    .0   1.5   .0    .65
.10   Kelly Olynyk    Mia    8  .938   23.3   9.0   2.4   1.3   1.3  1.3   2.10
.05   Eric Bledsoe    Mil   20  .453   11.9   6.8   2.4   1.2   3.0   .0    .41

eWin   per36 rates    tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.04   Andre Iguodala  Mia   14  .632    9.0   6.7   3.4   1.5   1.5   .7    .51
.02  Marvin Williams  Mil   22  .333    3.1   8.0   1.2   1.5    .0   .5    .13
.01   George Hill     Mil   31  .660   12.4   2.3   2.1    .4   2.3   .0    .05
-.00 Donte DiVincenzo Mil   14  .500    6.3   5.0   2.2   1.4   1.4   .0   -.05
-.00  Kyle Korver     Mil   11  .630   10.5   2.7    .0    .0    .9   .9   -.07

-.01  Duncan Robinson Mia   28  .500    8.3   3.5   2.1    .9   1.8   .4   -.06
-.04  Pat Connaughton Mil   13  .222    1.5   7.1    .6    .8   1.6   .0   -.53
-.04  Kendrick Nunn   Mia   12  .294    5.7   1.6   2.3    .8   3.3   .8   -.58
-.08  Wesley Matthews Mil   25  .531    5.9   3.4    .0    .9   1.9   .9   -.48

shooting: Mia .598 - Mil .546
rebounds: Mia 44.3 - 42.7 Mil
turnovers: Mia 12.7 - 14.3 Mil

Posted: **Sat Sep 05, 2020 5:44 pm**

Basketball Intelligence: Today's Best NBA Reporting And Analysis: http://basketballintelligence.net/2020/ ... is-9-5-20/

Posted: **Sun Sep 06, 2020 9:15 am**

Celtics 2 , Raptors 2
avg score 102.5 - 99.3
Pyth wins 2.42 - 1.58 , eWins 2.21 - 1.79

Code: Select all

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.64   Jayson Tatum   Bos   40  .560   23.2   8.4   3.4    .7   3.3   .0   1.92
.59   Kyle Lowry     Tor   42  .528   19.7   6.3   5.4   2.0   3.3   .7   1.71
.54   Kemba Walker   Bos   38  .622   21.8   3.5   5.3   1.2   2.0   .0   1.72
.35   Serge Ibaka    Tor   24  .667   19.1  10.5   1.4    .4   2.1  1.8   1.76
.32   Fred VanVleet  Tor   42  .436   13.9   4.0   4.8   1.7   2.2   .2    .93

.32   Jaylen Brown   Bos   36  .471   15.6   8.0   1.8   1.0   2.9  1.5   1.05
.30   Pascal Siakam  Tor   40  .448   13.2   6.8   2.2   1.4   1.1   .5    .91
.30   Daniel Theis   Bos   28  .508   10.4  12.9   1.7   1.0   1.7  2.3   1.30
.30  Robert Williams Bos   16  .811   20.0  11.1   2.7   1.0   1.6  2.1   2.25
.25   OG Anunoby     Tor   38  .696   13.2   6.7    .8   1.0   1.4  1.4    .79

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.20   Marcus Smart   Bos   37  .567   16.2   5.6   3.0   1.0   4.6   .7    .65
.08   Marc Gasol     Tor   25  .482    9.4   7.0   3.4    .8   1.9   .8    .37
-.00  Brad Wanamaker Bos   16  .613   11.1   5.4   1.4    .5   3.3   .5   -.01
-.04  Semi Ojeleye   Bos   13  .464    6.2   2.0    .0   2.0    .0   .0   -.41
-.08  Grant Williams Bos   15  .550    5.1   3.5   1.0    .0    .6   .6   -.69
-.09  Norman Powell  Tor   19  .435    9.1    .9    .7    .4    .9   .0   -.56

shooting: Bos .563 - .510 Tor
rebounds: Bos 45.8 - 40.3 Tor
turnovers: Tor 12.8 - 17.3 Bos

APBRmetrics

2020 Playoffs, East round 2: Bos-Tor & Mia-Mil

2020 Playoffs, East round 2: Bos-Tor & Mia-Mil

Re: 2020 East round 2: Bos-Tor and Mia-Mil

Re: 2020 East round 2: Bos-Tor and Mia-Mil

Re: 2020 East round 2: Bos-Tor and Mia-Mil

Re: 2020 East round 2: Bos-Tor and Mia-Mil

Re: 2020 East round 2: Bos-Tor and Mia-Mil

Re: 2020 East round 2: Bos-Tor and Mia-Mil

Re: 2020 East round 2: Bos-Tor & Mia-Mil

Re: 2020 East round 2: Bos-Tor & Mia-Mil

Re: 2020 East round 2: Bos-Tor & Mia-Mil

Re: 2020 East round 2: Bos-Tor & Mia-Mil

Re: 2020 East round 2: Bos-Tor & Mia-Mil

Re: 2020 East round 2: Bos-Tor & Mia-Mil

Re: 2020 East round 2: Bos-Tor & Mia-Mil

Re: 2020 East round 2: Bos-Tor & Mia-Mil