Average team age trend
Posted: Sat Oct 03, 2020 6:17 pm
In 2009-10 and 2014-15, 10 teams had a minutes weighted average age under 26. In 18-19, 12. This season, 17.
Nobody in modern times (or maybe ever) has won a title that young. Of course most of these were nowhere close for that to be a realistic objective. Nuggets and Heat thought it was. Was it? Should they have been older? Maybe not, if best chances were considered to be the next few years. But the future is not always reliable. The now is pretty precious.
Average age leaguewide down 0.6 years in just last 4 seasons.
Is the number of players getting 3rd and / or 4th contracts declining? Are their minutes declining? Both? Which is a bigger factor? What was happening with their pay recently and what will happen in future?
Will average age dip to 25 or below? If draft allows high schoolers it may well.
May change to some degree team strategic plans, emphasis among the different levels of max contracts, rotation length, usage distribution, coaching style or preferred coaching style, playoff seeding dynamics, playmaking, defenses, frequency of upsets etc. How much? We'll see.
If Lakers win, it is oldest team in league winning. Will GMs react to that? They were going away from it despite the recent and general history of old champs, so maybe not. Average of last 4 titlewinners was 5th oldest in league.
Going young may make sense if you think you have more chance in intermediate future than now... but maybe not if a lot of teams do the same and more than a few get it right.
Typically 4-7 teams over .650 in a season. 5 this time. I'd guess the number is more likely to go up next season or two than go down.
Some teams may be planning to peak 3 plus years from now. If you are not a top 8-10 team now and a title is the goal, that is probably the smart target. But it is filled with the most uncertainty.
Half of the best 20 players probably turns over within 3 years. Exactly who steps up into it, not clear.
Nobody in modern times (or maybe ever) has won a title that young. Of course most of these were nowhere close for that to be a realistic objective. Nuggets and Heat thought it was. Was it? Should they have been older? Maybe not, if best chances were considered to be the next few years. But the future is not always reliable. The now is pretty precious.
Average age leaguewide down 0.6 years in just last 4 seasons.
Is the number of players getting 3rd and / or 4th contracts declining? Are their minutes declining? Both? Which is a bigger factor? What was happening with their pay recently and what will happen in future?
Will average age dip to 25 or below? If draft allows high schoolers it may well.
May change to some degree team strategic plans, emphasis among the different levels of max contracts, rotation length, usage distribution, coaching style or preferred coaching style, playoff seeding dynamics, playmaking, defenses, frequency of upsets etc. How much? We'll see.
If Lakers win, it is oldest team in league winning. Will GMs react to that? They were going away from it despite the recent and general history of old champs, so maybe not. Average of last 4 titlewinners was 5th oldest in league.
Going young may make sense if you think you have more chance in intermediate future than now... but maybe not if a lot of teams do the same and more than a few get it right.
Typically 4-7 teams over .650 in a season. 5 this time. I'd guess the number is more likely to go up next season or two than go down.
Some teams may be planning to peak 3 plus years from now. If you are not a top 8-10 team now and a title is the goal, that is probably the smart target. But it is filled with the most uncertainty.
Half of the best 20 players probably turns over within 3 years. Exactly who steps up into it, not clear.