APBRmetrics

Posted: **Sun May 30, 2021 4:45 pm**

After 3 games for most -- 4 for Por, Den, Mia, Mil -- 27 players are averaging >.10 eWins per game.

eW/G    per36 rates  tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.299   Luka Dončić   Dal   39  .603   35.5  10.5   8.8   1.0   5.2   .9   3.68
.265   James Harden  Brk   34  .726   34.2   7.6   9.9   2.2   2.8   .4   3.70
.242   Kevin Durant  Brk   36  .630   35.9  10.0   2.6   2.1   4.2  2.0   3.20
.241  Kawhi Leonard  LAC   41  .705   30.0   7.7   3.4   2.2   1.7   .6   2.80
.216  Antetokounmpo  Mil   36  .487   26.1  13.6   8.9   2.1   3.1   .8   2.94

.202  Damian Lillard Por   38  .583   27.4   4.1   9.7   1.2   1.7   .2   2.53
.198   Trae Young    Atl   36  .589   31.8   2.8  11.0    .0   3.3   .0   2.64
.189   Joel Embiid   Phl   28  .765   47.4   9.4   3.4   1.6   3.7   .9   3.24
.184  Anthony Davis  LAL   40  .555   27.2  10.1   3.1    .8   2.0  2.2   2.22
.180   Nikola Jokić  Den   32  .626   33.0  12.5   3.3    .4   2.8   .0   2.68

eW/G    per36 rates  tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.172   Mike Conley   Uta   35  .616   21.4   5.7  11.1    .0   2.2   .7   2.34
.156   LeBron James  LAL   38  .585   22.6   6.4  10.1   2.4   4.4   .0   1.99
.154   Paul George   LAC   41  .620   21.9   8.1   4.3    .9   2.0   .0   1.81
.151  Tobias Harris  Phl   31  .639   32.3  11.4   3.1   1.5   2.1   .0   2.36
.146   Rudy Gobert   Uta   32  .746   17.6  16.6   1.1    .0   2.5  4.2   2.20

.145  Deandre Ayton  Phx   40  .802   24.8  12.3    .3    .4   2.0   .9   1.74
.143   Jayson Tatum  Bos   34  .533   26.5   4.7   4.2   1.9   3.1  1.4   2.00
.143   Ben Simmons   Phl   32  .545   16.3  11.2  11.9   1.9   2.4   .8   2.12
.143   Jrue Holiday  Mil   36  .526   17.5   6.1  11.2   2.8   3.1   .0   1.94
.138   Derrick Rose  NYK   38  .593   24.9   4.8   4.9    .8   2.7   .3   1.73

eW/G    per36 rates  tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.134   Ja Morant     Mem   40  .587   26.0   3.3   4.4    .3   2.8   .0   1.63
.127 Khris Middleton Mil   35  .628   27.9   6.4   5.1    .6   3.6   .0   1.80
.119   Bradley Beal  Was   38  .529   24.3   6.6   3.2   2.1   2.7   .3   1.51
.115   Jusuf Nurkić  Por   29  .602   15.3  14.5   4.3   1.1    .9  1.3   1.91
.111   Devin Booker  Phx   42  .545   25.5   3.8   5.0    .4   4.4   .0   1.26

.109  Dillon Brooks  Mem   32  .583   24.9   4.5   1.5   1.9   1.5   .8   1.62
.101 Dennis Schröder LAL   34  .659   24.8   2.9   4.0   2.2   3.0   .4   1.44

The Miami Heat had no player at this level.

Posted: **Sat Jun 05, 2021 1:35 am**

Aggregate 1st round team PER, WS/48, BPM, and eW/480

Code: Select all

rd1    PER    WS/48    BPM    e484
Mil    15.9    .206    3.7    1.43
Mia    10.1   -.010   -1.1     .57
Phl    17.4    .168    2.5    1.33
Was    12.9    .029   -0.8     .67
Atl    14.3    .142    2.3    1.22
NYK    11.7    .062    0.6     .78
Brk    18.7    .174    2.7    1.28
Bos    15.0    .031    0.0     .72
                
rd1    PER    WS/48    BPM    e484
Den    16.7    .106    1.4    1.04
Por    16.0    .093    1.1     .96
Phx    14.4    .141    2.2    1.20
LAL    11.9    .060    0.5     .80
Uta    17.2    .152    2.3    1.22
Mem    15.3    .048    0.3     .78
Dal*   14.2    .074    1.4     .89
LAC*   16.6    .134    2.3    1.10

* This is through 6 games of Dal/LAC.

Blending 4 stats, I get these leaders in 1st rd per-game proficiency:

Code: Select all

W/Gm    1st round       tm   Min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e484
.267   James Harden    Brk   182   34.6   .406   17.2   3.41
.2xx   Kawhi Leonard   LAC   243   31.8   .293   12.2   2.66
.231   Damian Lillard  Por   248   30.3   .282   12.2   2.53
.201   Kevin Durant    Brk   186   30.1   .266    9.6   2.75
.181   Trae Young      Atl   182   25.0   .214    9.1   3.08

.179   Nikola Jokić    Den   211   30.8   .215    8.6   2.72
.177   Antetokounmpo   Mil   145   23.1   .239    8.7   2.94
.16x   Luka Dončić     Dal   236   26.4   .104   11.1   2.64
.148   Rudy Gobert     Uta   162   25.6   .268    5.1   2.32
.143   Ben Simmons     Phl   160   23.6   .245    6.9   2.31

W/Gm    1st round       tm   Min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e484
.140   Jrue Holiday    Mil   145   18.6   .226    6.5   1.94
.139   Devin Booker    Phx   245   19.4   .166    3.6   2.01
.137   Tobias Harris   Phl   166   23.2   .199    5.1   2.40
.134   Mike Conley     Uta   150   22.3   .261    7.6   2.19
.134   Jayson Tatum    Bos   185   24.0   .110    6.5   2.02

.132   LeBron James    LAL   224   20.1   .089    9.2   2.12
.132   Deandre Ayton   Phx   218   19.5   .250    3.8   1.56
.124   Joel Embiid     Phl    95   33.3   .327   12.1   3.56
.12x   Paul George     LAC   241   19.3   .132    2.7   1.59
.121   Kyrie Irving    Brk   185   21.4   .189    1.9   1.59

W/Gm    1st round       tm   Min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e484
.121  Khris Middleton  Mil   139   17.1   .219    4.2   1.80
.119   Clint Capela    Atl   169   18.3   .240    4.0   1.57
.115  Donovan Mitchell Uta   120   26.9   .215    6.7   2.88
.114   Ja Morant       Mem   203   21.4   .072    2.8   1.73

BPM loves LeBron, but not so much Durant, Jokic, Giannis, Gobert, Simmons, Harris, Ayton, Embiid, George, Irving, or Mitchell.
Win Shares is high on Harden, Lillard, Gobert, Simmons, Holiday, Conway, Ayton, Irving, Middleton, and Capela; down on Doncic! Tatum! LeBron! Ja!
PER goes for Kawhi, Jokic, and Morant. Meh on Harden, Trae, Giannis, Holiday, Conley, Ayton, Middleton, Capela.
Props by eWins to Durant, Trae, Giannis, Luka, Booker, Harris, Tatum, Embiid, George, Mitchell; a bit less love for Lillard and Kawhi.

Posted: **Tue Jun 22, 2021 6:37 pm**

2nd round contributors

Code: Select all

W/Gm    2nd round     tm    Min   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
.196   Kevin Durant   Brk   299   24.7   .178  10.2   2.84
.191   Chris Paul     Phx   142   24.3   .327   8.2   3.28
.153 Donovan Mitchell Uta   226   26.0   .148   8.2   2.24
.149   Antetokounmpo  Mil   281   22.9   .118   7.0   2.38
.147   Nikola Jokić   Den   134   27.7   .122   9.6   2.73

.143   Joel Embiid    Phl   262   23.5   .147   5.8   2.40
.136   Trae Young     Atl   277   21.0   .131   7.3   1.90
.128   Seth Curry     Phl   239   20.6   .227   8.1   1.49
.118   Paul George    LAC   244   20.8   .122   0.8   1.90
.115  Reggie Jackson  LAC   185   22.5   .234   6.1   1.49

W/G     2nd round     tm    Min   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
.113   Devin Booker   Phx   154   17.3   .156   2.3   1.82
.107   Kawhi Leonard  LAC   147   27.3   .206   7.0   2.29
.105  Khris Middleton Mil   295   16.4   .091   3.8   1.48
.104   Mikal Bridges  Phx   127   18.3   .227   5.8   1.19
.100   Nicolas Batum  LAC   197   17.7   .179   6.9   1.11

.096   Deandre Ayton  Phx   133   19.2   .216   0.9   1.11
.092   Blake Griffin  Brk   216   16.1   .201   4.5   1.30
.086   Rudy Gobert    Uta   214   18.4   .134   0.9   1.10
.086   Joe Ingles     Uta   171   18.9   .155   6.3   1.22
.083   Brook Lopez    Mil   233   16.0   .168   3.7    .82

W/G     2nd round     tm    Min   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
.079   Ben Simmons    Phl   242   14.5   .124   2.6   1.14
.077   John Collins   Atl   253   14.9   .130   1.1    .96
.076   Jae Crowder    Phx   128   13.8   .176   3.0    .81
.076   Tobias Harris  Phl   272   14.3   .094   0.6   1.07
.074 Danilo Gallinari Atl   180   17.3   .190   5.0   1.02

Posted: **Sun Jun 27, 2021 12:17 am**

ECF thru 2 games:

Code: Select all

. Mil           Min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Jrue Holiday     74   26.4   .296   11.0   2.37
Giannis A        70   34.3   .372   14.7   3.20
Khris Middleton  69    9.3   .052   -3.4   1.05
P.J. Tucker      61   10.0   .182    1.6    .42
Brook Lopez      43   20.9   .251    7.4   1.48
Pat Connaughton  42    7.9   .136   -2.8    .28
Bobby Portis     32   21.5   .191    3.9   1.57
Bryn Forbes      25   11.0   .138   -2.4    .52
Jeff Teague      13   11.7   .087   -6.3    .40
Jordan Nwora     12    8.7  -.066  -10.7    .47
Elijah Bryant    10   -6.0  -.300  -21.9    .06
Mamadi Diakite   10   10.6   .156   -1.5    .47
Thanasis A       10   11.0   .192   -1.5    .43
Justin Jackson    4  -30.9  -.656  -35.0  -1.20
Sam Merrill       4   28.6   .336    9.3   1.87
. total Mil     480   17.1   .184    2.9   1.38
               
. Atl           Min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Trae Young       70   19.6  -.063    2.7   1.54
Kevin Huerter    67    3.2  -.071   -6.7   -.23
Clint Capela     62   12.8   .069   -0.6    .83
John Collins     61   21.0   .158    2.4   1.36
Bogd. Bogdanović 46   10.5   .026    0.6    .58
Danilo Gallinari 41    8.8   .006   -4.4    .12
Solomon Hill     38    4.8   .026   -2.7   -.15
Lou Williams     25    3.0  -.095   -5.8   -.20
Cam Reddish      17   14.8   .075    0.3    .88
Onyeka Okongwu   16   12.8   .018   -1.5    .44
Kris Dunn        11   32.9   .522   19.0   1.95
Tony Snell       10  -12.1  -.398  -21.2  -1.39
Bruno Fernando    9   31.6   .421   11.0   1.76
Skylar Mays       6   37.9   .489   27.8   2.90
Nathan Knight     4    9.5  -.030    1.9   1.08
. total Atl     480   12.4   .031   -0.6    .63

Posted: **Sun Jun 27, 2021 2:05 pm**

2 of top 5 second contributors still alive in conference finals. 5 of top 10. 10 of top 15. Being a top teammate of a top performer is helpful.

Suns with 4 in top 15. Clippers 3, Bucks 2, Hawks 1.

Beyond top 15 helps too, but less.

Posted: **Mon Jun 28, 2021 11:56 am**

After 3 games in the East

Code: Select all

. Atl         Min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Trae Young    109   22.1   .013    4.4   1.63
Kevin Huerter 104    7.8  -.011   -2.1    .11
Clint Capela   90   15.0   .061   -0.6    .91
John Collins   84   20.7   .129    1.0   1.35
Bogdanović     81    7.1  -.077   -2.8    .35
Gallinari      77   10.9   .002   -3.6    .24
Solomon Hill   53    3.1   .017   -4.7   -.40
Lou Williams   43    7.5  -.018   -2.9   -.03
Onyeka Okongwu 25   17.9   .126    1.9    .74
Cam Reddish    17   15.0   .071    0.3    .76
. total       720   13.4   .032   -0.4    .65


. Mil         Min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Jrue Holiday  116   20.9   .217    6.9   1.75
Antetokounmpo 111   31.7   .314   11.5   3.06
Middleton     111   17.1   .142    1.9   1.67
P.J. Tucker    95    9.7   .163    1.1    .33
Connaughton    74   10.0   .141   -1.0    .20
Brook Lopez    68   20.7   .249    6.0   1.24
Bobby Portis   49   26.4   .250    6.3   1.92
Bryn Forbes    32    6.6   .006   -7.6    .09
. total       720   17.8   .181    3.1   1.35

Posted: **Tue Jun 29, 2021 12:47 pm**

This is kind of a mess. I failed to capture the Suns' "advanced" numbers after round 2; so I am showing their PER, WS/48, and BPM for the whole playoffs. Minutes and eW/480 are for the conference finals after 5 games.

Code: Select all

. LAC            Min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Paul George      206   22.4   .136    6.0   3.00
Reggie Jackson   190   15.7   .077    2.8   1.40
Terance Mann     137   12.3   .137    0.9    .26
Patrick Beverley 133    8.7   .100   -0.6   -.04
Marcus Morris    131    8.7   .028   -3.6    .36
Ivica Zubac      124   22.0   .267    3.4   1.60
Nicolas Batum    113    9.6   .137    0.9    .30
Luke Kennard      79   10.2   .090    0.0   -.04
Rajon Rondo       47   17.3   .186    3.2   1.35
DeMarcus Cousins  29   27.5   .120   -3.0   2.73
. totals        1200   14.9   .122   1.56   1.11

*                        *      *      *
. Phx (all G*)   Min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Devin Booker     206   16.7   .095    0.7   1.71
Deandre Ayton    185   20.2   .219    3.3   1.61
Mikal Bridges    164   12.5   .129    1.6    .66
Jae Crowder      156   10.3   .111    0.9    .56
Cameron Johnson  119   15.6   .181    4.9    .70
Chris Paul       112   19.3   .173    4.2   1.91
Cameron Payne    105   15.5   .095    2.9   1.28
Dario Šarić       55   14.6   .170    1.2    .68
Torrey Craig      53   12.3   .108   -1.8    .40
E'Twaun Moore     27   10.9   .050   -0.5    .62
Abdel Nader       15    3.3  -.004   -7.3   -.22
. totals        1200   14.6   .083   0.73    .89

WCF-only numbers are likely better for Ayton, the Cams, Saric; worse than shown for everyone else.
Oddly, the totals line looks about right.

Posted: **Wed Jun 30, 2021 11:34 am**

ECF after 4 games

Code: Select all

. Mil           Min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Jrue Holiday    154   19.0   .157    5.4   1.56
Khris Middleton 148   15.8   .089    0.8   1.51
G Antetokounmpo 135   30.1   .259   10.5   2.87
P.J. Tucker     122    8.8   .131    0.0    .27
Pat Connaughton 101    9.1   .119   -1.6    .05
Brook Lopez      97   16.4   .170    2.4    .96
Bobby Portis     69   19.8   .142    1.0   1.46
Bryn Forbes      47    6.3   .000   -6.1    .09
Jordan Nwora     17   10.2  -.020   -8.2    .51
Jeff Teague      16    7.0  -.002   -9.2   -.02
Elijah Bryant    15   -1.1  -.203  -15.7   -.10
T Antetokounmpo  15   15.7   .179    4.3    .83
Mamadi Diakite   14    1.9  -.051   -8.5   -.08
. total Mil     960   15.8   .130   1.65   1.16


. Atl           Min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Kevin Huerter   140   10.5   .046   -0.8    .47
Clint Capela    118   17.2   .141    0.7   1.12
 Bogdanović     115   10.4  -.001    0.1    .78
John Collins    114   16.3   .113   -1.1   1.07
Trae Young      109   22.1   .039    4.4   1.80
Danilo Gallinari 96   10.1   .011   -4.3    .27
Lou Williams     78   18.1   .194    4.9    .96
Solomon Hill     53    3.1   .028   -4.7   -.36
Cam Reddish      40   17.2   .121    3.7   1.27
Onyeka Okongwu   40   20.4   .222    3.4    .97
Kris Dunn        22   15.1   .135    6.6    .73
. total Atl     960   14.4   .080   0.50    .85

Trae Young sat out the game and had his WS rate jump from .013 to .039, eW/480 from 1.63 to 1.80

Posted: **Wed Jul 14, 2021 12:56 am**

Uncorrected for strength of competition, the best playoff series by individuals. Converting PER and BPM to "wins"; and averaging them with eWins and Win Shares; dividing by number of games in the series.
[Again, Suns' 2nd and 3rd round rates are combined, over 10 games.]
Stats suggesting the most/least Wins are marked + or - respectively. Thru 3 Finals games, PER, WS, and eW all suggest ~.77 wins for Giannis.

Code: Select all

W/Gm    player       tm    rd   Min    PER    WS/48    BPM    e480
.280   Kawhi Leonard  LAC   1   285    32.3    .318+  12.6-   2.72
.262   James Harden   Brk   1   182    34.6-   .406+  17.2    3.41
.250   Antetokounmpo  Mil   4   113    35.8    .339   14.3-   3.29
.226  Damian Lillard  Por   1   248    30.3    .282+  12.2    2.53-
.211   Luka Dončić    Dal   1   281    27.4    .123-  11.8    2.59+

.199   Kevin Durant   Brk   2   299    24.7    .178-  10.2    2.84+
.197   Kevin Durant   Brk   1   186    30.1    .266    9.6-   2.75+
.178   Trae Young     Atl   1   182    25.0    .214-   9.1    3.08+
.175   Nikola Jokić   Den   1   211    30.8+   .215    8.6    2.72
.174   Antetokounmpo  Mil   1   145    23.1-   .239    8.7    2.94+

W/Gm    player       tm    rd   Min    PER    WS/48    BPM    e480
.154 Donovan Mitchell Uta   2   226    26.0    .148-   8.2    2.24+
.151   Antetokounmpo  Mil   2   281    22.9    .118-   7.0    2.38+
.151   Deandre Ayton  Phx   4   105    23.5    .265+   6.4-   2.04
.150   Chris Paul     Phx  2-3  289    27.2    .279+   9.9-   2.66
.149   Nikola Jokić   Den   2   134    27.7    .122-   9.6    2.73+

.145   Rudy Gobert    Uta   1   162    25.6    .268+   5.1-   2.32
.144   Joel Embiid    Phl   2   262    23.5    .147-   5.8    2.40+
.140   Ben Simmons    Phl   1   160    23.6    .245+   6.9-   2.31
.138   Trae Young     Atl   2   277    21.0    .131-   7.3    1.90+
.137   Jrue Holiday   Mil   1   145    18.6-   .226+   6.5    1.94

W/Gm    player       tm    rd   Min    PER    WS/48    BPM    e480
.136   Devin Booker   Phx   1   245    19.4    .166    3.6-   2.01+
.135   Paul George    LAC   1   285    19.1    .135    2.5-   1.57+
.134   Tobias Harris  Phl   1   166    23.2    .199    5.1-   2.40+
.134   Jrue Holiday   Mil   3   238    19.9-   .165    5.3    1.76+
.131   Mike Conley    Uta   1   150    22.3-   .261+   7.6    2.19

.131   Jayson Tatum   Bos   1   185    24.0    .110-   6.5    2.02+
.130   LeBron James   LAL   1   224    20.1    .089-   9.2+   2.12
.130   Seth Curry     Phl   2   239    20.6    .227+   8.1    1.49-
.129   Deandre Ayton  Phx   1   218    19.5    .250+   3.8-   1.56
.129   Paul George    LAC   3   247    20.2    .088-   3.9    2.22+

W/Gm    player       tm    rd   Min    PER    WS/48    BPM    e480
.128   Chris Paul     Phx   4   113    21.8+   .148-   5.6    1.72
.122   Joel Embiid    Phl   1    95    33.3    .327   12.1-   3.56+
.119   Kyrie Irving   Brk   1   185    21.4    .189+   1.9-   1.59
.119   Paul George    LAC   2   244    20.8    .122    0.8-   1.90+
.119   Deandre Ayton  Phx  2-3  358    20.8    .202+   2.8-   1.59

.119  Khris Middleton Mil   1   139    17.1-   .219+   4.2    1.80
.118   Antetokounmpo  Mil   3   135    29.2    .238-  10.5    2.89+
.117   Clint Capela   Atl   1   169    18.3-   .240+   4.0    1.57
.116  Reggie Jackson  LAC   2   185    22.5+   .234    6.1    1.49-
.113 Donovan Mitchell Uta   1   120    26.9    .215    6.7-   2.88+
.113   Ja Morant      Mem   1   203    21.4    .072-   2.8    1.73+

Wins per game refers to games played by the team; if the player misses games, these are zeroes.
85 postseason games means each column should sum to 85 wins. Formulas that do this:
PER Wins = (PER - 5.75)*Min/4415
Win Shares = (WS/48)*Min/50
BPM Wins = (BPM + 5.25)*Min/3203
eWins = e480*Min/481.2

APBRmetrics

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