Page 1 of 3
eWins 2022
Posted: Fri Oct 29, 2021 10:22 pm
by Mike G
After just 4 or 5 games, no slackers sneaking into the top tiers.
Ranked by equivalent wins added in 82 games at current rates and minutes.
Code: Select all
e82 per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
19.4 Nikola Jokić Den .733 39.8 17.2 4.7 2.5 5.0 .3 3.85
17.0 Kevin Durant Brk .618 32.7 9.3 4.6 1.0 2.5 1.0 2.84
16.9 Antetokounmpo Mil .592 30.9 13.2 6.8 1.2 3.6 2.4 3.20
15.9 Stephen Curry GSW .589 32.0 7.8 5.9 1.6 4.4 .4 2.55
15.7 Karl-A Towns Min .683 35.9 7.4 4.0 1.3 4.9 2.7 2.71
15.7 Jimmy Butler Mia .547 28.8 6.8 5.3 3.7 2.4 .3 2.65
14.2 Rudy Gobert Uta .706 28.2 19.7 .9 .6 3.3 .9 2.69
13.8 Julius Randle NYK .509 22.0 11.6 6.4 1.0 3.5 1.4 2.17
13.6 Ja Morant Mem .639 31.1 5.5 6.7 1.7 5.5 .4 2.22
13.4 Paul George LAC .552 27.2 8.1 4.0 4.3 3.6 .3 2.38
e82 per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
13.1 Joel Embiid Phl .563 26.5 11.7 4.7 1.5 3.2 2.2 2.56
12.9 Anthony Davis LAL .542 23.2 10.4 2.0 .6 1.7 2.3 1.99
12.8 Trae Young Atl .531 27.0 2.9 9.1 1.3 3.2 .2 2.19
12.8 Zach LaVine Chi .623 31.5 5.6 4.6 .4 3.2 .6 2.20
12.4 CJ McCollum Por .629 30.8 5.2 3.0 2.2 3.4 1.7 2.23
12.2 Bam Adebayo Mia .566 27.6 14.7 1.7 1.0 3.0 .3 2.34
11.8 Harrison Barnes Sac .656 25.3 8.9 1.8 .7 1.7 .0 1.85
11.6 Luka Dončić Dal .513 24.5 8.5 7.4 .8 5.4 .8 1.90
11.5 Miles Bridges Cha .642 25.4 8.5 1.5 1.8 1.9 .6 1.92
11.4 John Collins Atl .693 26.5 12.1 2.8 1.3 2.3 1.0 2.31
e82 per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
11.2 Montrezl Harrell Was .681 24.1 10.4 2.1 .7 .7 1.4 2.12
11.1 Anthony Edwards Min .521 26.0 7.1 3.4 1.0 2.6 .3 1.83
10.7 Domantas Sabonis Ind .692 20.8 10.6 3.2 1.4 3.5 .4 1.60
10.6 DeMar DeRozan Chi .502 23.5 5.3 4.7 1.1 1.7 .6 1.79
10.4 Jo. Valančiūnas NOP .506 16.1 14.3 2.5 .9 1.1 1.3 1.76
10.4 Dejounte Murray SAS .449 15.0 9.5 7.2 2.1 2.3 .4 1.74
10.4 Nikola Vučević Chi .488 16.9 11.3 4.0 2.2 2.2 1.1 1.79
10.0 Tobias Harris Phl .571 21.0 9.6 4.2 .2 1.8 .4 1.76
10.0 Tyler Herro Mia .515 27.3 8.0 4.4 .0 3.2 .0 1.92
9.8 Malcolm Brogdon Ind .542 21.0 6.9 5.7 .6 3.4 .8 1.56
e82 per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
9.8 Christian Wood Hou .566 19.9 11.8 1.8 .9 1.6 1.1 1.74
9.8 Donovan Mitchell Uta .503 26.0 3.6 6.1 2.0 3.6 .3 1.84
9.7 Jakob Poeltl SAS .645 17.9 12.4 2.8 1.1 2.0 1.6 1.73
9.7 Jayson Tatum Bos .510 22.1 7.3 3.3 .4 2.5 1.0 1.50
9.5 LaMelo Ball Cha .547 22.9 7.5 6.5 2.5 3.7 .3 1.97
9.5 Richaun Holmes Sac .753 19.6 13.7 2.2 .7 1.0 2.7 2.05
9.4 Brandon Ingram NOP .547 24.2 6.8 3.8 .4 3.7 .6 1.48
8.3 OG Anunoby Tor .500 19.6 6.1 2.4 2.2 1.9 .8 1.40
8.1 Saddiq Bey Det .549 18.6 10.2 2.4 .8 2.2 .3 1.41
8.1 Jarrett Allen Cle .720 19.4 10.1 1.0 1.4 1.7 .9 1.53
8.1 Spencer Dinwiddie Was .568 25.6 5.5 6.9 .3 1.9 .3 2.05
#42-50: VanVleet, Nurkic, Shai G-A, Harden, Mobley, St Adams, Booker, Paul, Middleton
51-60: Lillard, D Graham, Cole Anthony, Bojan B, Barton, Kuzma, Clarkson, Brunson, Ayton, Bane
Raw totals nabbed from this site:
https://www.basketball-reference.com/le ... otals.html
Re: eWins 2022
Posted: Sat Nov 13, 2021 10:29 pm
by Mike G
season at 15%
Code: Select all
e82 per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
18.6 Nikola Jokić Den .652 34.7 16.1 6.4 1.8 4.0 1.0 3.69
17.5 Kevin Durant Brk .668 36.8 8.4 5.3 .6 3.6 .7 2.95
17.3 Stephen Curry GSW .625 35.8 6.8 6.5 1.5 3.7 .7 3.00
15.2 Antetokounmpo Mil .561 28.8 12.7 6.0 1.2 3.4 2.0 2.92
14.0 Paul George LAC .558 28.7 7.5 5.2 2.7 4.7 .5 2.33
13.0 Luka Dončić Dal .518 24.7 8.6 7.6 1.4 4.5 .6 2.20
12.9 Jimmy Butler Mia .609 28.8 6.2 5.0 2.4 2.1 .4 2.50
12.5 Rudy Gobert Uta .700 21.8 18.8 1.0 1.1 2.7 2.2 2.37
12.4 Anthony Davis LAL .539 23.3 10.9 2.5 1.4 2.5 2.5 2.09
12.3 Karl-A Towns Min .628 25.9 9.1 3.1 1.9 3.7 1.2 2.05
e82 per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
12.3 James Harden Brk .591 23.1 7.9 9.2 1.3 5.2 .9 2.10
11.7 DeMar DeRozan Chi .562 26.6 5.7 3.7 1.0 1.9 .4 1.94
11.6 Donovan Mitchell Uta .546 30.0 4.9 5.6 1.7 3.2 .2 2.28
11.3 Zach LaVine Chi .600 28.4 5.7 3.7 .6 3.0 .4 1.90
11.3 Ja Morant Mem .559 24.7 6.5 6.3 1.5 4.3 .3 1.89
11.2 Jo. Valančiūnas NOP .578 19.5 15.0 2.5 .8 2.3 1.0 1.95
10.9 Montrezl Harrell Was .689 25.6 10.5 2.1 .7 1.6 1.4 2.15
10.7 Bam Adebayo Mia .575 23.9 13.3 2.3 1.7 3.6 .5 2.08
10.6 Dejounte Murray SAS .499 17.3 8.0 6.9 2.2 2.4 .5 1.83
10.4 Julius Randle NYK .518 19.7 10.3 4.8 .7 3.3 1.0 1.70
e82 per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
10.4 Domantas Sabonis Ind .612 19.3 11.7 3.3 1.6 3.4 .4 1.68
10.2 LaMelo Ball Cha .535 18.9 8.2 6.9 2.3 3.2 .5 1.88
10.1 Chris Paul Phx .578 16.1 4.8 10.1 2.7 2.7 .6 1.86
10.1 Jayson Tatum Bos .479 20.8 8.5 3.0 1.0 2.5 .9 1.58
10.0 Trae Young Atl .542 23.2 3.6 8.2 1.0 4.0 .2 1.69
9.9 Harrison Barnes Sac .645 22.2 7.9 2.0 1.1 1.9 .1 1.58
9.7 Jarrett Allen Cle .669 19.1 12.4 1.8 1.4 2.2 1.1 1.73
9.4 Fred VanVleet Tor .552 18.5 5.0 6.1 1.3 2.6 .4 1.43
9.1 Devin Booker Phx .525 22.9 6.6 4.9 1.1 3.6 .3 1.63
9.1 Miles Bridges Cha .544 18.6 7.0 2.9 1.7 1.7 .9 1.47
e82 per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
9.1 Cole Anthony Orl .569 20.2 7.5 4.6 1.5 3.1 .3 1.57
9.0 Shai G-Alexander OKC .533 22.7 4.8 4.1 1.0 2.7 .6 1.50
9.0 Anthony Edwards Min .524 23.0 5.6 2.9 1.7 3.5 .5 1.45
8.8 Richaun Holmes Sac .707 21.1 14.2 1.6 .7 2.5 1.7 1.91
8.8 Bradley Beal Was .492 23.0 5.5 5.4 1.2 4.1 .5 1.57
8.7 Myles Turner Ind .665 20.1 11.3 1.3 .7 2.2 4.1 1.79
8.6 Jusuf Nurkić Por .610 17.2 16.5 3.1 2.1 3.3 .9 2.01
8.5 Christian Wood Hou .515 16.0 12.3 2.1 .9 1.9 .9 1.46
8.4 John Collins Atl .640 18.7 9.9 2.1 .9 1.3 1.0 1.55
8.4 Damian Lillard Por .478 17.8 4.5 7.8 .6 2.6 .2 1.40
8.4 Russell Westbrook LAL .484 17.1 8.4 7.4 1.4 5.5 .2 1.36
42-50: Barton, Embiid, Herro, McCollum, Anunoby, W Carter Jr, E Mobley, Vucevic, Jaylen Brown
51-60: Dinwiddie, Maxey, Brogdon, Horford, Poole, Wiggins, Kuzma, Draymond, S Barnes, Robt. Williams
Re: eWins 2022
Posted: Tue Nov 16, 2021 4:05 pm
by Mike G
b-r.com has their MVP Tracker page going:
https://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/mvp.html
They give weight (as do voters, historically) to
team winning %. This boosts Steph and depresses Giannis.
Code: Select all
. mvp? tm tmW% mpg PER WS/48 BPM Prob
Jokic Den .643 32 35.4 .354 14.5 .432
Curry GSW .846 34 26.9 .276 8.5 .240
Durant Brk .714 35 29.6 .284 8.4 .154
Butler Mia .643 33 29.0 .323 9.8 .044
Harrell Was .769 28.5 28.3 .332 7.2 .037
Paul Phx .769 32 23.7 .250 5.7 .034
DeRozan Chi .714 35 25.2 .237 3.9 .025
Harden Brk .714 34 20.7 .173 3.3 .015
Gobert Uta .615 31 25.1 .276 4.2 .010
Giannis Mil .429 33 29.1 .228 8.9 .007
Everyone else totals .002 chance.
Jokic has among the
highest numbers ever seen across the board. Nobody close in any column. Yet there's a 57% chance someone else wins it.
Before going to the Wiz, 'Trez was last seen holding down the bench in the Lakers' 1st-round playoff loss to Phx. Expected to get 8-14 mpg for a bad team, he's 3rd in the league in Win Shares, 6th in VORP ... in limited minutes.
Re: eWins 2022
Posted: Wed Nov 17, 2021 10:50 pm
by Mike G
One day later, the top 10 are the same; but the order has shifted at the top:
Code: Select all
mvp? PER WS/48 BPM Prob
Curry 28.4 .302 9.9 .415
Jokic 35.4 .354 14.5 .382
Durant 28.4 .259 7.7 .051
...
Re: eWins 2022
Posted: Wed Nov 24, 2021 3:01 pm
by Mike G
Jokic has missed more games (4) than he has in the last 3+ seasons. At this rate, he'll get about 64 games.
Season at 21.6%
Code: Select all
e82 per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
16.2 Stephen Curry GSW .630 35.1 6.4 6.7 1.6 3.5 .7 2.97
16.0 Antetokounmpo Mil .566 29.9 12.5 6.1 1.3 3.6 2.1 3.03
15.0 Nikola Jokić Den .658 33.2 15.2 6.4 1.4 3.6 1.0 3.48
14.8 Kevin Durant Brk .648 33.2 7.6 5.0 .5 3.1 .7 2.62
13.3 Paul George LAC .539 27.4 7.6 5.0 1.9 4.2 .5 2.18
12.6 Rudy Gobert Uta .716 22.2 17.7 .9 1.0 2.2 2.4 2.40
12.4 Anthony Davis LAL .559 23.2 10.2 2.7 1.3 2.2 2.3 2.07
12.4 Karl-A Towns Min .625 26.4 9.1 3.1 1.5 3.6 1.2 2.08
12.3 James Harden Brk .591 22.9 7.5 8.8 1.6 5.2 .8 2.06
12.3 Jimmy Butler Mia .607 28.7 6.5 5.3 2.4 2.1 .4 2.55
e82 11-20 tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
12.1 DeMar DeRozan Chi .579 27.8 5.3 3.9 1.1 2.3 .5 2.02
12.0 Jayson Tatum Bos .512 24.6 8.3 3.2 1.0 2.5 .9 1.91
11.0 Ja Morant Mem .558 23.9 6.3 6.2 1.4 3.6 .3 1.90
10.9 Zach LaVine Chi .591 27.9 5.7 3.5 .6 3.0 .4 1.83
10.8 Trae Young Atl .559 25.2 3.8 8.2 1.0 4.2 .1 1.86
10.8 Montrezl Harrell Was .691 25.5 10.7 2.6 .7 1.4 1.0 2.22
10.7 Luka Dončić Dal .516 24.0 8.4 7.7 1.3 4.5 .7 2.16
10.6 Domantas Sabonis Ind .621 20.6 12.0 3.5 1.4 3.3 .4 1.83
10.6 Donovan Mitchell Uta .537 27.2 5.0 5.2 1.9 3.3 .2 2.05
10.6 Jonas Valančiūnas NOP .590 20.2 13.9 2.4 .6 2.3 1.1 1.90
e82 21-30 tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
10.6 LaMelo Ball Cha .525 18.9 8.2 7.0 2.1 3.5 .5 1.87
10.4 Dejounte Murray SAS .487 16.2 8.4 6.7 2.2 2.4 .5 1.76
10.2 Julius Randle NYK .518 19.9 10.2 4.9 .7 3.5 .7 1.69
9.7 Chris Paul Phx .563 16.2 4.3 10.0 2.4 2.6 .4 1.79
9.7 Devin Booker Phx .536 24.4 5.9 4.6 1.0 3.0 .3 1.74
9.1 Russell Westbrook LAL .503 17.7 8.3 7.6 1.5 5.1 .2 1.52
9.1 Bam Adebayo Mia .566 22.2 12.4 2.9 1.5 3.2 .5 1.96
8.8 John Collins Atl .636 19.1 9.1 2.3 .9 1.2 1.5 1.61
8.6 Anthony Edwards Min .529 22.1 6.0 3.0 1.5 3.5 .7 1.42
8.6 Damian Lillard Por .518 19.6 4.1 7.3 .7 2.7 .4 1.51
e82 31-40 tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
8.5 Tyler Herro Mia .565 24.0 6.2 3.7 .7 2.9 .0 1.57
8.4 Miles Bridges Cha .541 18.2 6.9 2.7 1.3 1.8 .8 1.34
8.1 Bradley Beal Was .512 23.1 5.3 5.8 1.1 4.2 .4 1.59
8.1 Richaun Holmes Sac .720 20.9 12.4 1.3 .5 2.1 1.3 1.73
8.0 Harrison Barnes Sac .619 19.8 7.3 2.2 1.1 2.2 .2 1.32
8.0 Tyrese Maxey Phl .593 19.3 3.6 4.3 .8 1.2 .6 1.31
8.0 Andrew Wiggins GSW .586 25.6 5.3 1.9 .9 2.3 .6 1.59
8.0 CJ McCollum Por .542 19.7 4.4 4.0 1.1 2.0 .8 1.33
7.8 Fred VanVleet Tor .544 17.0 4.9 5.8 1.5 2.9 .6 1.27
7.8 Jusuf Nurkić Por .608 15.7 16.7 2.8 1.8 3.0 .9 1.89
#41-50: J Allen, Capela, Cole Anthony, Brogdon, Porzingis, Horford, Poole, Myles Turner, Shai, C Wood
51-60: Brunson, Schroder, Draymond, Dinwiddie, D-Lo, Barton, Ayton, Fox, Wendell Carter Jr, Kuzma
Re: eWins 2022
Posted: Mon Dec 06, 2021 10:50 pm
by Mike G
Today's b-r.com MVP Tracker looks a lot like the previous post.
Code: Select all
Prob mvp? tmW% Pts Reb Ast Stl Blk
.294 Curry .826 27.5 5.7 6.5 1.8 .5
.223 Giannis .625 27.6 11.8 6.0 1.1 1.7
.168 Jokic .500 26.1 13.6 6.4 1.1 .8
.099 Durant .696 28.6 7.7 5.5 .6 .7
.062 Paul .826 14.3 4.0 10.1 2.0 .3
.044 Butler .583 23.6 5.8 5.3 2.1 .3
.039 Gobert .696 14.9 14.7 1.0 1.0 2.3
.032 Harden .696 20.6 7.9 9.5 1.5 .7
.022 Ayton .826 16.5 11.2 1.4 .8 .7
.019 DeRozan .667 26.4 5.3 4.1 .9 .4
Steph's chances were about twice as great a week or so ago. Nobody else was even 10% then.
Re: eWins 2022
Posted: Fri Dec 10, 2021 10:34 pm
by Mike G
Season is at 31%
Code: Select all
e82 per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
15.7 Stephen Curry GSW .609 34.0 5.9 6.6 1.7 3.4 .5 2.79
15.1 Nikola Jokić Den .640 31.7 15.3 7.1 1.4 3.7 .8 3.36
15.0 Antetokounmpo Mil .581 31.5 12.7 6.0 1.2 3.7 1.9 3.06
13.9 Kevin Durant Brk .618 31.4 7.6 5.0 .7 3.1 .7 2.44
12.3 Trae Young Atl .572 27.5 4.2 8.9 1.0 4.3 .1 2.11
12.3 James Harden Brk .570 21.9 8.0 8.9 1.5 5.1 .7 1.99
12.2 Rudy Gobert Uta .710 20.9 17.4 1.1 .9 2.2 2.6 2.24
12.1 Anthony Davis LAL .561 23.2 10.1 2.6 1.3 2.1 2.2 2.05
11.7 Jayson Tatum Bos .521 24.4 8.8 3.4 1.0 2.8 .8 1.88
11.5 Karl-A Towns Min .617 26.6 9.5 3.2 1.2 3.7 1.1 2.03
e82 11-20 tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
11.3 Domantas Sabonis Ind .636 21.0 13.1 3.9 1.2 3.3 .4 1.94
11.2 Dejounte Murray SAS .502 17.7 8.6 7.4 1.9 2.6 .4 1.88
11.1 Zach LaVine Chi .590 27.8 5.6 4.0 .6 2.8 .4 1.86
11.1 DeMar DeRozan Chi .580 27.9 5.6 3.8 1.0 2.1 .4 1.99
11.1 Donovan Mitchell Uta .560 28.6 4.6 5.4 1.7 3.4 .2 2.08
10.8 Luka Dončić Dal .535 25.5 8.3 8.1 1.2 4.9 .5 2.18
10.7 Paul George LAC .521 24.7 7.3 5.1 2.0 4.4 .4 1.89
10.4 Jo. Valančiūnas NOP .588 20.8 14.2 2.5 .7 2.5 1.1 1.95
10.2 Jarrett Allen Cle .702 23.0 12.5 1.9 1.1 2.4 1.4 2.02
10.0 Chris Paul Phx .573 17.1 4.3 10.2 2.2 2.8 .3 1.81
e82 21-30 tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
9.6 Julius Randle NYK .517 18.9 10.1 5.0 .8 3.5 .8 1.59
9.4 LaMelo Ball Cha .533 18.9 8.4 7.6 2.0 3.6 .5 1.87
9.3 Jimmy Butler Mia .591 25.8 6.6 5.3 2.7 2.1 .3 2.33
9.0 Russell Westbrook LAL .516 18.2 7.6 7.5 1.3 4.7 .2 1.47
8.9 John Collins Atl .636 20.0 8.9 2.2 .8 1.2 1.6 1.61
8.9 Devin Booker Phx .556 26.8 5.4 4.5 1.0 3.1 .3 1.84
8.6 Jusuf Nurkić Por .615 19.3 15.6 3.0 1.6 3.0 .8 2.03
8.6 Joel Embiid Phl .548 26.3 12.4 4.3 1.1 3.0 1.6 2.48
8.4 Christian Wood Hou .527 16.7 12.8 2.3 .7 2.0 1.4 1.55
8.3 Clint Capela Atl .562 13.2 15.6 1.4 1.1 .8 1.8 1.63
e82 31-40 tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
8.2 Ja Morant Mem .554 25.3 6.3 6.6 1.5 3.6 .3 2.02
8.2 Montrezl Harrell Was .674 22.2 10.3 2.5 .8 1.7 .9 1.82
8.1 Anthony Edwards Min .526 20.1 5.7 3.4 1.7 3.4 .7 1.31
8.1 Darius Garland Cle .583 22.2 3.1 7.2 1.3 4.2 .1 1.48
8.0 Andrew Wiggins GSW .584 24.7 5.4 2.0 .9 2.0 .6 1.54
8.0 Fred VanVleet Tor .559 18.3 4.9 5.3 1.4 3.1 .6 1.28
7.9 Malcolm Brogdon Ind .557 20.6 6.0 5.6 1.0 2.4 .5 1.60
7.8 Miles Bridges Cha .561 17.6 7.0 2.8 1.1 1.9 .9 1.24
7.7 Jordan Poole GSW .576 24.0 3.9 4.1 1.2 3.0 .3 1.49
7.7 Bradley Beal Was .517 21.8 4.8 5.3 .9 3.5 .3 1.41
#41-50: Shai, W Carter, Draymond, Richaun, Porzingis, Ayton, Jerami Grant, Bam, D Fox, M Turner
51-60: Horford, Conley, McCollum, J Jackson, LeBron, D Lo, Zubac, Lillard, Maxey, Vucevic
Re: eWins 2022
Posted: Sat Dec 11, 2021 1:17 am
by Crow
DARKO projection has Sabonis at a modest positive and negative momentum.
DRIP has him at a moderate / higher projection. Don't know about momentum there.
Most public metrics have his current impact in the +2-3 range. EPM is over +4.
GMs may have different appraisals, using these metrics, others (possibly private)or none. Judgment of players and / or metrics to apply.
Tatum varies from at least +1 to +4 as well.
Doncic, at least 0 to +4.
Re: eWins 2022
Posted: Mon Dec 13, 2021 11:39 am
by Mike G
MVP Tracker update. Steph had a bad outing; Durant went for 51 and is back innit.
Code: Select all
Prob mvp tm tmW% Pts Reb Ast Stl Blk TO
.235 Giannis Mil .643 27.3 11.7 5.9 1.1 1.6 3.3
.213 Curry GSW .808 27.1 5.6 6.3 1.7 .4 3.1
.210 Jokic Den .500 26.5 13.5 7.2 1.2 .8 3.4
.118 Durant Brk .704 29.4 7.6 5.6 .7 .8 3.0
.081 Paul Phx .840 14.4 3.9 10.2 2.0 .4 2.4
.068 Gobert Uta .731 15.1 14.6 .9 .8 2.2 1.8
.033 Harden Brk .704 20.8 7.9 9.6 1.4 .7 5.0
.014 J Allen Cle .571 17.3 11.2 1.8 1.0 1.4 2.0
.014 Mitchell Uta .731 24.8 3.8 5.0 1.7 .2 3.0
.014 DeRozan Chi .630 26.4 5.3 4.1 .9 .4 2.0
Nobody else with any chance.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/mvp.html
Last year, the Joker's MVP competition all missed significant games -- Embiid, LeBron, Giannis, etc -- so he was an easy pick.
But his per-minute stats -- PER, WS/48, BPM, or anything else one could find -- should have made it overwhelming in any case.
Combine the top 10 player-seasons of the last 2 years, and as far ahead of the pack he was last year (if this makes any sense), Jokic is
that far ahead of his own 20-21 performance this season.
Code: Select all
xyz mvp yr ts% PER WS/48 BPM
13.01 Jokic 22 .654 33.9 .304 14.1
11.56 Jokic 21 .647 31.3 .301 11.7
9.89 Giannis 22 .603 31.1 .273 8.5
9.15 Embiid 21 .636 30.3 .266 7.2
9.09 Giannis 21 .633 29.2 .244 8.8
8.34 Butler 21 .607 26.5 .255 7.5
8.04 Curry 22 .608 24.6 .245 8.3
7.63 Gobert 22 .744 25.2 .287 4.8
7.54 Curry 21 .655 26.3 .201 8.1
7.53 Durant 22 .632 26.1 .222 6.9
xyz=sqrt((PER-5.5)*ws/48*(BPM+5.5))
Re: eWins 2022
Posted: Tue Dec 14, 2021 1:27 am
by bchaikin
Denver is 13-13 with an average per game point differential of 0.0 pts/g.
Utah is 19-7 with an average per game point differential of +11.1 pts/g.
Utah is the better defensive team, and has a far better ORtg as a team than Denver does.
So what does Jokic having a BPM 3 times better than Gobert tell us? Or a better WS/48?
stats.nba.com shows Jokic on defense allowing a 51% FG% (190/370), Gobert a 39% FG% (188/479).
Re: eWins 2022
Posted: Tue Dec 14, 2021 3:46 pm
by Mike G
Gobert is 5 times 1st-team all-Defense and 3 time DPOY. Jokic will likely never be one of those.
Gobert likely has better players around him? Utah is +13.4 pts/100 poss when he's on the court, and Denver is +13.7 when Jokic is playing.
But Gobert has made his team 5 pts/100 better (than without him), while the Nuggets are
30 pts/100 worse without Jokic.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/te ... ayoffs_pbp
If that's a meaningful difference, then his team without him is worst in the league by a country mile. He raises them from near 0% winning to 50%-ish.
Gobert has made 74% of his shots, 6.2 FG per game, and 75% have been assisted. That leaves 1.6 unassisted FG per game -- putbacks, largely?
Jokic hits effectively 66% of his shots, 11.3 FG/G of which some 40% are unassisted -- 4.5 per G
If we should see a playoff series between these teams, the participants may well rank like this:
Code: Select all
Den-Uta tm BPM WS/48 PER
Jokic Den 14.6 .312 34.4
Gobert Uta 4.8 .287 25.2
Mitchell Uta 3.7 .179 22.4
Conley Uta 3.6 .215 19.1
O'Neale Uta 2.7 .145 12.4
Ingles Uta 1.8 .152 12.9
Barton Den 1.2 .082 15.5
Gay Uta 1.1 .164 16.6
Bogie Uta 0.7 .162 16.7
Whiteside Uta 0.4 .237 22.3
Gordon Den -0.7 .122 15.8
Campazzo Den -1.3 .096 12.1
...
Nuggs have one or two maybe-average players around Jokic.
Jazz have roughly 8 of the 10 best players.
So what does Jokic having a BPM 3 times better than Gobert tell us?
That's not a practical ratio. You can't use a ratio of BPM 1.5 vs 0.1 -- or 0.1 vs -0.1
Re: eWins 2022
Posted: Tue Dec 14, 2021 7:14 pm
by bchaikin
Based on their W-L records and average per game point differentials, Utah is on pace for some 60-70 wins, Denver for 42-43 wins.
If Gobert had been playing for Denver all season and Jokic for Utah, and if supposedly Jokic was the better player, as eWins and BPM appear to be saying, what would the projected W-L records be of the two teams?
You do realize that Utah is 3rd worst in the league in ast/fgm, but has the league's top offense (highest offpts/poss).
Re: eWins 2022
Posted: Tue Dec 14, 2021 10:10 pm
by Mike G
BPM really loves Jokic over Gobert, by 9.8 pts/100 poss
They both play about 32 mpg, or 2/3 of a game, so a team with Jokic should be 6.6 pts/G better than with Gobert.
This should result in about 14 more wins in 82 games.
eWins likes Joker by ~3 eWins, which by magical math would result in another 6 wins over Gobert.
Win Shares rates them closer yet, maybe 2-3 wins difference in a season.
With Hassan Whiteside as backup/alternative, Gobert adds about 4.5 points to Utah's offense and half a point to defense.
Relative to -- Jeff Green? -- at center, Denver prefers Jokic by 14 pts/100 on offense and
16 on defense. Go figure.
...Utah is 3rd worst in the league in ast/fgm,...
I don't know if higher or lower is better or worse. The Pelicans have one of the highest Ast/FG ratios and bottom-5 offense.
Seeing Utah
opponents have the lowest Ast/FG ratio in the league, maybe their scorekeepers are just stingy with assists?
Re: eWins 2022
Posted: Wed Dec 15, 2021 10:02 pm
by bchaikin
BPM really loves Jokic over Gobert, by 9.8 pts/100 poss... so a team with Jokic should be 6.6 pts/G better than with Gobert.
This should result in about 14 more wins in 82 games...
so a utah team with jokic instead of gobert would be on pace to, what, some 60+14=72 wins or 70+ 14 = 80+ wins?...
and a denver team with gobert 42/43-14 = 28/29 wins?...
eWins likes Joker by ~3 eWins, which by magical math would result in another 6 wins over Gobert.
so now utah/jokic at 60+6=66 wins and denver/gobert at 42/43-6=36/37 wins?...
Nuggs have one or two maybe-average players around Jokic. Jazz have roughly 8 of the 10 best players.
as of a week ago denver without jokic's stats on offense as a team was shooting 52% on 2s and 34% on 3s, utah without gobert 55%-56% on 2s and 37% on 3s. their eFG% of 55.7% was best in the league, denver's eFG% of 51.7% ranked 19th...
yet - with jokic's "great" passing shouldn't this be the other way around? or does his great passing not make his teammates shoot better?...
basketball-reference now (not a week ago) shows with gobert on the court utah is shooting a 58.7% eFG%, denver with jokic a 57.2% eFG%...
I don't know if higher or lower is better or worse. The Pelicans have one of the highest Ast/FG ratios and bottom-5 offense. Seeing Utah opponents have the lowest Ast/FG ratio in the league, maybe their scorekeepers are just stingy with assists?
oh i get it - this is an artifact of poor stats keeping...
if utah does not need more assists or more passing to be the top offensive team, which they clearly do not, what else does jokic bring to the table that the jazz would win more with him than with gobert? it's clearly not defense...
and while gobert does not score as much as jokic he shoots better with far fewer turnovers, thus is more efficient on offense...
i contend that gobert's higher offensive efficiency and better offensive rebounding, and far far better defense, are the key seasons why utah was 19-7 at that time and denver was 13-13, i.e. gobert is the significantly better player in terms of helping his team win more games, despite jokic's high PER, BPM, and eWins...
Re: eWins 2022
Posted: Wed Dec 15, 2021 11:19 pm
by Mike G
.. denver without jokic's stats on offense as a team was shooting 52% on 2s and 34% on 3s, utah without gobert 55%-56% on 2s and 37% on 3s. their eFG% of 55.7% was best in the league, denver's eFG% of 51.7% ranked 19th...
yet - with jokic's "great" passing shouldn't this be the other way around? or does his great passing not make his teammates shoot better?...
I am having trouble understanding this question.
Are you saying that if Jokic is a great passer, his team should therefore be the best shooting team in the league?
The normal question here is: how much better do they shoot with him on the floor than without him?
Nuggets shoot .087 better eFG% when he's on the floor. Part of that is his own shooting.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/te ... 22/on-off/
Their #2 and #3 guys are out with injury. Jamal Murray and Michael Porter were #2 and 3 -- in Win Shares, VORP, BPM, OWS, OBPM -- last year. Jokic can't turn Monte Morris and Will Barton into those guys; nor can he turn them into Donovan Mitchell and Mike Conley.
It's hard to say whether Jokic would make the Jazz win 14 more games or 6 more, or not even as many. They're a team built around Gobert, who doesn't have to do much on offense. Denver with Gobert instead of Jokic would likely have trouble getting points.
Jazz opponents, for whatever reason, have shot .005 better when Gobert is on the floor. Perhaps just a garbage-time artifact.