APBRmetrics

I imagine I'll find a few things to say along the way.

What comes to mind right now?



Suns should see what teams might offer for Chris Paul.

I'd change the Jazz by moving 1, 2 or 3 of their big 3, with a preference for moving 2 or 3. I don't think they will though.

Grizzlies should look for at least 1 consolidation trade.

Spurs need a strong off-season or I'd change most of the front office / coaching staff.

Hawks should probably change out 2-3 starters but more likely will do just 1.

The Spurs have the most binary of the decisions about their future.

They CAN’T simply retool. They have to either commit to their duo of Murray and Poeltl, so trade away, e.g., Johnson, Jones, Richardson, etc., plus draft picks for an All-NBA player. Otherwise, they move Murray and Poeltl and begin a full rebuild.

There are simply no moves at the margin that will make them more than a play-in team.

I don't think they move Murray and / or Poeltl in this off-season. At the deadline maybe.

Acquire an All-Star? would be wise to try to get a young one or one becoming that but seems unlikely unless they make a super offer. They have a lot of modest other pieces but may have to trade Murray and / or Poeltl to get a major talent.

Not a lot of background context on the bid for Blazers. Solicited or not?

Quinn Snyder is talking with ownership and front office but not clear what he is thinking or will do. Sit out a year recovering from surgery? At face value or as a strategic move or threat?

TWolves, continuity or change to team?

Will Thunder make any big moves or just moves before or at draft?

Elsewhere I said Mavs should go after J Val.

Lowry seems like a Heat mistake but probably not going to admit or try to change right away or maybe can't for improvement.

Beal decision-making will be interesting to see from both sides.

Cavs potentially significant but further progress next season is not guaranteed.

Not that interested in Pacers but they could go either way too.

Not a fan of Pistons. If things don't improve next season or by trade deadline, I'd expect big change(s).

Bulls got a lot of praise last off-season. Lots of issues now. I wasn't and am not as optimistic as many.

Nets have many decisions. Not looking like the mountain is feasible any more imo. More a question of how short of top they will be. Same with Sixers.

Raptors Probably aren't getting another title as is. Will have to study more to remember / update my thinking on them.

How much influence will McMillan have on roster decisions? He is the obvious guy to fall if next season looks mediocre.

How high could Pelicans go? Best case looks pretty good. What their timeline for compete is I dunno and it matters a lot.

What exactly does Snyder want? From what I can gather, even though the specific terms are not public, the NBA World belief is that the contract extension the Jazz offered him (and he declined) would make him one of the highest paid coaches in the league. Also, if he simply wanted to take one year off to recover from his back surgery, I think they would give it to him. So......

McGee would be a great backup center for DAL, especially as the championship vet on the roster. However, I don’t see him playing starter level minutes — 30-33 min. per gm. in the regular season — and producing accordingly at age 35. I am surprised neither Myles Turner nor Mike Muscala have been mentioned in connection to the Mavs (or another team for that matter). They both provide elite rim protection as well as stretch the floor.

I don’t think the Lowry trade was a mistake at the time. Two seasons ago, he almost led the Raptors to the East Conf. Finals after taking the much more talented Celtics to 7 games in the 2nd Rd. In 2021, he was STILL one of the best “true” PG’s in the league, with championship experience no less. I think what happened to him is the Mike Conley effect, whereby age caught up to him all at once — no gradual decline. Can he pull a Chris Paul and get his body right to give him 1 or maybe 2 more great seasons? TBD. Tyler Herro is a 2-guard. The whole Herro as a ball handler experiment isn’t going anywhere. Heat’s best option: somehow getting Dejounte Murray from the Spurs.

Cavs need another effective shot creator not named Darius Garland. Caris LaVert always seemed like a poor choice by their front office after Ricky Rubio went down.

My conclusions on the Nets are probably the least “analytical.” Regardless of the impeding roster moves, without overwhelming talent (a la KD+Kyrie+Harden), the Nets — similar to PHI — lack the INTANGIBLES to credibly compete next season against much more mentally-tough teams, like MIL, BOS or MIA at the minimum.

This is their first year and several key Bulls players are already injury-wriddled. If all players are back at full health next season, they will be a feisty playoff team but short of being a true contender.

To me, the Hawks mainly have a player development issue. Too many rotation players regressed offensively and defensively from last season, Trae Young being the main exception. McMillan’s future will all depend on whether he will be blamed for player under-performance.

The Pelicans have enough talent and depth to be a scary playoff team. (The team is versatile enough to upset at higher seeded team.) Same story as always, it all depends on Zion: his health, and reintegration into the lineup in addition to Willie Green’s system.

Hawks, Jazz and Timberwolves went with major change as suggested. Timberwolves after making continuity their theme last season, before Connelly.

Your call on McGee for Mavs was correct.


Celtics realized they should get better, better usable depth. Using lots of assets for win now.

Do Raptors or Clippers have a major move coming? Been pretty quite.

Ayton, KD, Irving still to be resolved.

I wouldn't have Heat at near top of contenders without some change.

Either Magic like a lot of their current guys (probably too much) and / or they are temporally preserving trade assets.

Hornets with several issues.

Wizards probably stuck in no man's land for foreseeable future. Kyrie would be a consideration, if they got an extension.

Would Bulls consider Irving (probably for Ball)? I dunno.

Pacers still have Hield to trade sometime one. Maybe Turner.

Lakers going younger, more defense. Not that impressed but will need to look deeper or see actual play.

Griz looking good but could still use a consolidation trade around Brooks, Green, Z Williams and / or Adams.

I dunno what to say about Bucks, except probably give plenty, plenty of rest and try to get to playoffs healthy and energetic.

Pelicans pretty quite. Fit is the main thing to focus on.

Brunson better at minimum get Knicks to 10 seed. If not, things are going to get noisy. Can they get to 6th seed? Probably not.

Too early to say / guess much on Blazers or Kings.

Hawks probably didn’t “NEED” to do their trades, but it consolidated their roster while adding a legit All-Star caliber player to the team. It locks them up for a Top-6 seed, assuming Trae truly embraces playing off-the-ball with Murray.

After the moves so far, the Jazz likely still have enough to fight for the play-in tournament, but what type of change is actually coming remains to be seen: try to retool next summer, or tear everything down by trading Mitchell and Conley?

Timberwolves took some big swings as well as made some smart upgrades. Essentially Gobert for Vanberbuilt as the roll-cut big was a no-brainer, and Anderson is a nice improvement over Beasley. However, speaking honestly, they should have kept Beverly and traded Russell. I know everyone jokes about Beverly, but he is more of a winning player on the floor than Russell, plus he provides leadership and veteran-savvy than MIN sorely needs with such a young core. In addition, assuming both Edwards and Russell instead as their backcourt defending the point-of-attack, they will have similar problems to the Jazz with Gobert having to clean up a lot of perimeter mistakes. I think they are still a Top-6 seed in the West, but unless Edwards and Russell have a dramatic improvement defensively (or they make a change with Russell, e.g., McLaughlin), I don’t see how this will be worth all the draft capital spent (especially with Poeltl and Turner reportedly being available, most certainly for less).

The Celtics added a lot of depth, but a lot of them were one-sided players. Gallinari is simply another Pritchard, and Brogdon may be a better offensive player than White but a significantly worse on-ball defender. So, while they are “better” overall by flipping some non-rotation players for better talent, it creates more lineup issues than this season.

The Clippers losing Hartenstein was a bummer because the lineup of Kawhi-PG-Hartenstein-Covington-Batum would have just been completely devastating for opposing teams. Regardless, the Clippers — like the Nuggets and Pelicans — already have enough to be contenders as long as their key players are healthy.

I was kinda annoyed that Porter Jr. signed with the Raptors — like THEY need more wings. At the same time, with how the rest of the East has improved, as TOR is presently, chances are that they are a play-in team that could go to the next level depending on what happens with the KD thing (and how much that costs).

In the end, I think KD goes to the Suns and Ayton’s sign-and-trade is part of that somehow, along with Kyrie to the Lakers.

For MIA, unless Lowry comes back rejuvenated AND they replace the production they lost from Tucker, they are now further away from the Finals.

Magic probably want to see Banchero, Wagner, Carter Jr. and Suggs on the court together besides seeing which bench players work best with them before they start trading picks/players and using cap space.

None of the Hornets’ free agents have signed anywhere else or re-signed with the team. With them losing Harrell and Bridges to legal troubles, they HAVE to re-sign all their free agents and/or sign considerably better ones at the last minute, otherwise, they will take a huge step backwards. This effectively ends any meaningful talk of Hayward/Washington trades.

The Wizards are actually one of the teams that have improved the most (trading Barton andMorris for Caldwell-Pope while signing Wright) from the end of the regular season, on top of Beal coming back from thumb surgery. Even so, I agree that they are only a future perennial play-in franchise.

Bulls made a solid pick-up in Drummond as a defensive center, and presuming health, all but solidify annual playoff positioning.

Even if BRK trade Kyrie (to WAS, CHI or anywhere else that’s not LAL), he’s not going to sign an extension somewhere he doesn’t want to be, not to mention the Lakers are going to have enough cap room in 2023 to sign him outright to a max contract.

Allegedly, the Pacers are going for a full rebuild. So how Hield and Turner are still on that roster is beyond me.

Cavs brought back Rubio. If he has really recovered, it solves their offense production problem and Cavaliers might upend the East standings.

76ers hit the home run in terms of adding toughness and scrappiness to that roster that they desperately lacked. Probably the best offseason of any team — signed Tucker, Melton, House Jr. and Queen while getting rid of unreliable Jordan and Green. PHI a serious threat to make the Finals (unlike that other team in Brooklyn ).

TrailBalzers are another team that had major additions, just as Lillard is coming back from the abdominal injury. Snatching both Grant and Payton II is a BIG deal. Not sure they are a Top-6 team in the West Conf. though.

As an aside, GSW have had as bad an offseason as one could have (losing Porter Jr., Payton II, Bjelica, Toscano-Anderson, Lee). They did gain DiVincenzo. If their young talent (Kuminga, Moody, Poole, Wiseman) don’t make huge leaps next season, the Warriors might be stuck in the play-in tournament.

I was wrong about Spurs on Murray and accordingly surprised.

Poeltl hasn't moved... yet.
At deadline? Fairly close call. More likely than not, I'd guess but see what he does vs. the other bigs... and their chances at Wembanyama. Or Ware, or Lively or in that trade or any other. And if they plan to tank several years, much more season to move Poeltl.