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2022 Finals: Celtics vs Warriors
Posted: Tue May 31, 2022 1:46 am
by Mike G
Preview, player standardized per-36-minute rates for each of previous 3 rounds.
For the Celtics, the lines are vs Brk, vs Mil, and vs Mia.
Code: Select all
. Jayson Tatum
mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk 3s e480 eWin
42 .602 27.4 4.8 6.1 3.9 1.5 4.5 .7 13 1.75 .61
41 .544 27.0 5.6 5.2 2.6 .9 3.3 1.0 26 2.09 1.24
41 .601 26.5 7.6 5.4 2.4 1.0 4.4 .8 18 1.79 1.07
. Jaylen Brown
mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk 3s e480 eWin
39 .549 18.8 6.1 3.9 1.9 2.3 2.4 .5 4 1.31 .42
37 .602 25.2 7.1 3.8 2.8 1.0 3.2 .6 21 1.85 1.00
39 .591 25.9 6.9 3.1 3.8 .7 3.2 .3 19 1.48 .84
. Marcus Smart
mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk 3s e480 eWin
37 .532 14.0 4.9 6.8 3.8 1.2 2.6 .0 10 .92 .28
31 .542 15.0 3.5 6.1 3.0 1.0 2.5 .7 13 .98 .45
26 .485 16.2 6.4 6.8 3.8 1.2 1.9 .2 11 1.30 .49
. Al Horford
mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk 3s e480 eWin
32 .722 17.7 10.6 2.2 4.6 .9 .9 .9 9 1.40 .37
39 .607 12.9 9.7 4.2 3.1 1.2 .9 1.6 14 1.50 .85
32 .578 10.4 10.1 3.9 2.1 .5 1.7 2.0 9 1.01 .47
. Grant Williams
mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk 3s e480 eWin
30 .750 14.4 5.7 .8 3.5 .3 .6 1.7 8 .72 .18
32 .517 10.3 5.2 1.0 4.4 .3 1.2 1.0 17 .16 .08
30 .581 10.4 5.0 .7 5.0 .7 1.2 .3 7 .18 .08
. Derrick White
mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk 3s e480 eWin
20 .412 4.7 9.0 3.2 2.9 1.6 1.3 .0 1 .37 .06
26 .500 10.1 4.9 3.7 2.7 1.0 1.0 .6 8 .57 .22
24 .517 13.4 3.8 5.2 3.5 1.8 2.5 1.5 7 .88 .30
. Robert Williams
mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk 3s e480 eWin
8 .417 2.9 9.3 1.0 4.3 1.1 1.1 1.1 0 .08 .01
10 .619 14.1 8.6 2.7 5.6 1.6 .6 4.1 0 1.65 .24
19 .764 20.1 10.3 .6 2.5 .9 1.2 3.3 0 1.66 .46
. Payton Pritchard
mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk 3s e480 eWin
12 .767 21.1 5.1 2.7 2.8 .7 .7 .0 3 1.22 .12
13 .484 9.6 5.9 5.6 2.4 .4 .4 .3 8 .82 .16
15 .592 16.0 3.3 4.6 3.6 1.0 .7 .3 10 .96 .21
. Daniel Theis
mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk 3s e480 eWin
22 .607 14.1 13.5 2.1 6.0 1.3 2.2 .4 1 1.16 .21
7 .567 11.3 6.6 .7 5.3 .7 2.2 2.7 1 .46 .04
7 .750 15.4 8.6 3.3 1.5 .0 1.6 .8 0 1.04 .10
Dubs' lines are vs Den, vs Mem, vs Dal:
Code: Select all
. Stephen Curry
mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk 3s e480 eWin
30 .628 32.3 4.5 6.0 2.3 1.8 3.4 .5 19 2.57 .80
36 .559 27.7 4.6 5.4 2.6 .8 2.6 .5 23 1.93 .86
35 .580 26.0 7.8 7.2 3.4 .8 3.1 .4 18 2.03 .74
. Klay Thompson
mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk 3s e480 eWin
35 .642 22.5 4.7 1.4 2.5 1.2 1.4 .8 22 1.43 .52
35 .507 16.9 4.8 2.4 1.9 1.4 1.9 1.0 20 .95 .42
35 .585 17.7 4.4 3.0 2.3 .6 .9 .4 15 .96 .35
. Andrew Wiggins
mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk 3s e480 eWin
30 .593 15.1 9.5 1.9 2.4 1.2 1.5 1.0 7 1.23 .38
33 .539 14.4 7.2 .8 2.9 1.0 1.7 1.5 9 .81 .33
37 .531 16.0 8.1 2.6 3.0 .5 .9 .4 8 1.06 .40
. Draymond Green
mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk 3s e480 eWin
33 .600 10.1 7.0 7.9 4.4 1.5 1.9 1.8 4 1.31 .45
28 .535 8.8 10.3 6.9 4.6 1.0 5.1 1.1 0 .82 .29
30 .602 13.7 8.7 6.2 4.8 .9 3.3 1.2 2 1.14 .36
. Jordan Poole
mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk 3s e480 eWin
32 .700 26.2 3.1 5.9 3.4 1.5 2.9 .4 15 1.89 .64
30 .569 22.0 4.5 4.5 2.9 .2 3.7 .8 12 1.22 .46
28 .774 26.0 3.9 4.3 4.9 1.6 2.8 .2 8 1.53 .45
. Kevon Looney
mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk 3s e480 eWin
13 .545 4.6 11.5 2.3 6.6 .5 .5 .0 0 .29 .04
19 .640 10.0 13.4 3.2 3.5 1.0 1.5 .6 0 1.13 .26
28 .697 15.4 15.7 3.6 1.8 .2 .9 .8 0 1.71 .50
. Otto Porter Jr.
mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk 3s e480 eWin
22 .370 2.7 5.4 3.1 3.7 .8 1.5 .6 2 -.26 -.06
18 .596 9.4 6.6 3.3 3.7 2.1 1.2 .6 7 .70 .16
11 .793 17.2 9.7 2.8 2.5 1.1 .7 .6 1 1.42 .16
. Jonathan Kuminga
mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk 3s e480 eWin
5 .609 13.3 .0 .9 .0 1.0 3.1 1.0 0 -.07 .00
13 .617 22.9 6.9 2.0 3.4 .5 2.6 .4 2 1.32 .21
6 .475 18.5 11.2 2.0 3.3 1.0 2.5 .0 1 1.25 .08
. Nemanja Bjelica
mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk 3s e480 eWin
10 .541 9.7 4.7 2.8 4.0 1.1 1.2 1.1 0 .42 .04
5 .500 4.3 5.2 3.3 3.7 .0 1.9 .0 1 -.15 -.01
8 .750 8.7 9.0 5.1 4.8 .0 .9 .0 1 .71 .06
. Moses Moody
mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk 3s e480 eWin
2 .167 .7 3.3 2.7 .0 2.7 3.0 .0 0 -.57 -.01
4 .750 20.5 5.0 1.2 1.3 .0 1.4 1.3 3 1.09 .05
13 .676 11.0 1.7 .9 1.5 .9 .6 .5 4 .15 .02
. Damion Lee
mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk 3s e480 eWin
2 .600 14.2 6.5 .0 2.8 .0 .0 .0 0 .57 .01
12 .486 6.0 4.9 1.8 1.6 .5 1.6 .0 3 -.11 -.02
7 .500 7.0 11.6 1.7 2.8 .0 2.1 .0 1 .32 .02
Re: 2022 Finals: Celtics vs Warriors
Posted: Wed Jun 01, 2022 4:05 pm
by Mike G
B-R.com still has their Playoff Probabilities page up:
https://www.basketball-reference.com/fr ... _prob.html
They say Celtics have a 57% chance of winning the Finals, GS 43%. This is likely calculated from their regular season SRS (simple rating system = margin of victory + strength of schedule).
Meanwhile, 15 of 20 ESPN Experts are picking the Warriors --
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/339 ... on-celtics
What accounts for this discrepancy? Are the Dubs doing much better in the playoffs? Do they have stronger personnel now than in the regular season?
Round-by-round :
Code: Select all
Bos
vs mov sos srs
Brk 4.50 0.82 5.32
Mil 7.86 3.22 11.08
Mia 5.29 4.23 9.52
---------------------------
tot 5.88 2.76 8.64
GSW
vs mov sos srs
Den 8.00 2.16 10.16
Mem 0.67 5.37 6.04
Dal 8.60 3.12 11.72
---------------------------
tot 5.76 3.55 9.31
in a given round is just that opponent's season SRS. Here it seems GS has been about half a point better; and they have the home court advantage.
Another way to compare their relative playoff strength is with BPM. This metric accounts for the actual lineups used. If a regular player is missing (Middleton) or an irregular star is present (Irving), the season SRS is not as relevant.
Code: Select all
rd Bos GS
1 2.53 2.36
2 2.96 1.51
3 2.64 2.56
- ------------
T 2.71 2.14
x4.2 11.38 9.00
I seem to recall that 4.2 is a better multiplier than 5.0, to predict a team's pts/100 vs average.
For whatever reason, the Celts look better -- and more consistent. Dubs lost that one game to the Grizz by 50, and maybe that's all it is.
Note: I gave each series equal weight; so a short series counts just as much as a long one in these ratings.
Bos' weakest series was their shortest one (4 G vs Brk); Dubs' weakest was also their longest (6 G vs Mem). If each game counted equally, this would help the Celts' overall rating and hurt the Dubs.
Celtics in 6.
Re: 2022 Finals: Celtics vs Warriors
Posted: Wed Jun 01, 2022 5:30 pm
by DarkStar48
Celtics are favored to win the Finals in the FiveThirtyEight RAPTOR-based Forecast (~80%) and ESPN NBA BPI (87%), essentially a sweep or at most 5 games.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... edictions/
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/page/B ... ayoff-odds
Assuming nothing changes, both projections have GSW losing Game 1 (~47% vs. 40%, respectively) as the closest game in the series.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... ons/games/
https://www.espn.com/nba/game/_/gameId/401442530
Re: 2022 Finals: Celtics vs Warriors
Posted: Wed Jun 01, 2022 7:37 pm
by Mike G
Thanks for these links!
The 538 Raptor projection says Bos wins .78 of home games and .56 of away games -- but for that .53 likelihood in G1. No explanation -- Dubs give up?
Chance of a Celtics sweep are 18% with these odds, 41% that they win in 4 or 5.
Their Elo system has Celts winning .47 in GS and .74 at home. With this, it's just 12% for a sweep and 31% in 4 or 5 -- almost as likely the Dubs win.
I don't know what to make of the ESPN BPI, and apparently neither do 20 Experts who work there. Part of the formula is "preseason expectations". Really?
Don't see home/away split, just .862 likelihood Boston wins. If they are .82 at home and .584 on the road, it sums to .862
Code: Select all
Bos win in:
.229 4
.250 5
.275 6
.108 7
.862 tot
Bos in 6 is most likely outcome in all these.
Re: 2022 Finals: Celtics vs Warriors
Posted: Thu Jun 02, 2022 5:45 pm
by Mike G
More round by round summaries and trajectories:
Code: Select all
Warriors
rd Min PER WS/48 BPM e480
1 1200 18.1 .140 2.36 1.22
2 1440 14.3 .100 1.51 1.02
3 1200 18.1 .160 2.56 1.24
t 3840 16.7 .131 2.10 1.15
Klay Thompson
rd Min PER WS/48 BPM e480
1 173 19.5 .114 2.2 1.43
2 212 12.4 .054 1.3 .95
3 177 16.1 .119 1.4 .96
t 562 15.7 .093 1.6 1.10
Stephen Curry
rd Min PER WS/48 BPM e480
1 150 29.5 .218 8.6 2.57
2 214 19.8 .163 5.5 1.93
3 174 22.5 .185 4.9 2.03
t 538 23.3 .185 6.2 2.14
Andrew Wiggins
rd Min PER WS/48 BPM e480
1 150 16.8 .112 0.2 1.23
2 198 14.8 .103 0.9 .81
3 183 17.1 .130 -0.6 1.06
t 531 16.1 .115 0.2 1.02
Draymond Green
rd Min PER WS/48 BPM e480
1 164 16.6 .167 4.5 1.31
2 170 9.4 .036 -0.8 .82
3 152 14.8 .117 1.8 1.14
t 486 13.5 .106 1.8 1.09
Jordan Poole
rd Min PER WS/48 BPM e480
1 162 23.2 .213 5.2 1.89
2 179 14.8 .073 0.2 1.22
3 140 22.8 .246 5.7 1.53
t 481 19.9 .170 3.5 1.54
Kevon Looney
rd Min PER WS/48 BPM e480
1 67 10.0 .139 -4.1 .29
2 111 18.7 .206 4.1 1.13
3 140 23.1 .251 6.2 1.71
t 318 18.8 .212 3.3 1.21
Otto Porter Jr.
rd Min PER WS/48 BPM e480
1 109 4.2 -.024 -6.2 -.26
2 106 14.4 .169 4.6 .70
3 54 21.7 .251 8.6 1.42
t 269 11.7 .108 1.0 .46
Jonathan Kuminga
rd Min PER WS/48 BPM e480
1 25 13.7 -.020 -3.2 -.07
2 76 18.9 .128 0.3 1.32
3 29 14.5 .055 -4.6 1.25
t 130 16.9 .083 -1.5 1.04
Nemanja Bjelica
rd Min PER WS/48 BPM e480
1 48 14.5 .092 -2.2 .42
2 32 5.2 .058 -4.2 -.15
3 41 13.4 .179 1.1 .71
t 121 11.6 .113 -1.6 .37
Damion Lee
rd Min PER WS/48 BPM e480
1 8 21.0 .180 -5.8 .57
2 74 6.0 .008 -3.0 -.11
3 34 7.4 .015 -4.7 .32
t 116 7.4 .022 -3.7 .06
Gary Payton II
rd Min PER WS/48 BPM e480
1 85 23.6 .272 10.2 1.26
2 26 14.4 .110 0.4 .87
t 111 21.7 .238 7.9 1.17
Moses Moody
rd Min PER WS/48 BPM e480
1 8 1.7 -.222 -10.6 -.57
2 22 22.4 .210 6.4 1.09
3 64 12.9 .121 1.3 .15
t 94 14.2 .113 1.5 .31
Juan Toscano-Anderson
rd Min PER WS/48 BPM e480
1 8 42.2 .453 22.6 2.48
2 21 2.7 -.110 -5.8 .15
3 12 -9.7 -.317 -14.7 -1.71
t 41 6.7 -.061 -2.9 .06
Andre Iguodala
rd Min PER WS/48 BPM e480
1 42 4.2 -.002 -5.4 -.35
t 42 4.2 .004 -5.4 -.35
Code: Select all
Celtics
rd Min PER WS/48 BPM e480
1 960 17.0 .129 2.53 1.13
2 1680 14.7 .148 2.96 1.24
3 1680 15.0 .141 2.64 1.17
T 4320 15.3 .141 2.74 1.19
Jayson Tatum
rd Min PER WS/48 BPM e480
1 167 21.4 .153 5.6 1.75
2 286 18.3 .123 5.0 2.09
3 286 19.1 .152 5.5 1.79
t 739 19.3 .141 5.3 1.90
Jaylen Brown
rd Min PER WS/48 BPM e480
1 155 19.0 .108 3.1 1.31
2 260 17.9 .156 4.2 1.86
3 272 16.8 .125 1.8 1.48
t 687 17.7 .133 3.0 1.59
Al Horford
rd Min PER WS/48 BPM e480
1 128 18.9 .192 4.9 1.40
2 273 16.8 .217 6.7 1.50
3 224 13.8 .150 5.0 1.01
t 625 16.1 .188 5.7 1.31
Grant Williams
rd Min PER WS/48 BPM e480
1 119 16.6 .171 4.5 .72
2 221 7.8 .081 -2.1 .16
3 212 7.7 .108 -2.4 .18
t 552 9.6 .111 -0.8 .29
Marcus Smart
rd Min PER WS/48 BPM e480
1 147 14.6 .094 0.1 .92
2 219 12.4 .117 0.9 .97
3 182 14.1 .120 0.6 1.30
t 548 13.5 .112 0.6 1.07
Derrick White
rd Min PER WS/48 BPM e480
1 81 8.4 .017 -3.2 .37
2 180 10.9 .122 0.6 .57
3 165 12.7 .095 3.5 .88
t 426 11.1 .092 1.0 .65
Payton Pritchard
rd Min PER WS/48 BPM e480
1 46 19.5 .181 5.0 1.22
2 92 13.1 .166 3.2 .81
3 104 15.0 .173 3.3 .96
t 242 15.1 .172 3.6 .96
Robert Williams
rd Min PER WS/48 BPM e480
1 30 10.3 .065 -4.2 .08
2 71 22.7 .288 6.5 1.66
3 134 23.2 .285 6.5 1.66
t 235 21.4 .258 5.1 1.46
Daniel Theis
rd Min PER WS/48 BPM e480
1 88 16.2 .129 -0.1 1.16
2 46 11.4 .145 -1.8 .46
3 46 15.3 .174 3.6 1.04
t 180 14.7 .145 0.4 .95
Aaron Nesmith
rd Min PER WS/48 BPM e480
2 7 24.2 .323 15.0 2.08
3 29 .2 -.119 -8.8 .14
t 36 4.9 -.033 -4.2 .52
Nik Stauskas
rd Min PER WS/48 BPM e480
2 7 5.4 -.003 -3.0 -.17
3 8 32.4 .402 11.8 3.00
t 15 19.8 .213 4.9 1.52
Luke Kornet
rd Min PER WS/48 BPM e480
2 6 -.6 .057 -6.8 -.97
3 7 13.1 .129 -3.8 .35
t 13 6.8 .096 -5.2 -.26
Malik Fitts
rd Min PER WS/48 BPM e480
2 6 32.0 .275 15.7 2.04
3 3 .2 .083 -8.9 -.94
t 9 21.4 .211 7.5 1.05
Juwan Morgan
rd Min PER WS/48 BPM e480
2 1 .0 .026 -3.5 -1.20
3 8 6.2 .065 -9.6 -.22
t 9 5.5 .061 -8.9 -.33
Sam Hauser
rd Min PER WS/48 BPM e480
2 4 14.7 .177 -4.0 .49
t 4 14.7 .183 -4.0 .49
Re: 2022 Finals: Celtics vs Warriors
Posted: Fri Jun 03, 2022 11:36 am
by Mike G
Celtics 120 - 108 Warriors
Pythagorean wins .80 - .20 , eWins .65 - .35
Code: Select all
eWin per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.16 Al Horford Bos 32 .963 38.9 7.8 3.4 1.3 2.5 .0 2.43
.15 Stephen Curry GS 39 .630 30.1 5.3 4.1 2.6 1.9 .0 1.88
.12 Marcus Smart Bos 29 .818 25.5 7.1 5.0 2.8 .0 .0 2.05
.11 Jaylen Brown Bos 38 .500 21.8 7.6 4.8 2.2 4.2 1.0 1.41
.07 Jayson Tatum Bos 41 .293 7.4 5.1 11.5 1.0 1.9 .0 .86
.06 Derrick White Bos 32 .808 26.4 1.2 3.2 .0 2.3 .0 .97
.06 Robert Williams Bos 25 1.00 15.0 9.9 .0 1.6 3.2 5.9 1.15
.06 Kevon Looney GS 25 .400 4.4 14.9 6.4 .0 2.9 4.4 1.10
.06 Andrew Wiggins GS 35 .625 15.4 5.9 .0 .9 1.1 3.2 .77
.05 Payton Pritchard Bos 16 1.00 19.0 13.5 3.9 .0 .0 .0 1.63
eWin per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.04 Otto Porter GS 24 1.20 18.0 6.3 .0 2.5 1.4 .0 .88
.02 Andre Iguodala GS 12 .875 22.4 .0 6.7 .0 2.6 .0 .80
.01 Draymond Green GS 38 .148 1.6 12.0 4.2 1.7 2.9 .0 .15
.01 Klay Thompson GS 39 .536 9.6 2.1 2.5 .0 .0 .0 .13
.00 Grant Williams Bos 16 .000 .0 6.7 5.9 .0 .0 .0 .05
-.02 Jordan Poole GS 25 .500 10.4 3.0 2.3 .0 5.4 .0 -.35
shooting : Bos .645 - .565 GS
rebounds: 39 - 39
turnovers: Bos 13 - 14 GS
Alternative summary stats are derived by subtracting yesterday's numbers from the current ones at b-r.com:
Code: Select all
wins Finals tm Min PER WS/48 BPM e480
.19 Al Horford Bos 32 32.5 .352 16.0 2.42
.18 Stephen Curry GS 39 30.7 .215 13.6 1.88
.17 Marcus Smart Bos 29 31.4 .391 14.5 2.05
.10 Derrick White Bos 32 19.7 .235 3.9 .96
.09 Otto Porter GS 24 23.9 .218 12.0 .86
.08 Payton Pritchard Bos 16 28.0 .366 11.7 1.65
.07 Andrew Wiggins GS 35 19.3 .083 3.4 .76
.07 Robert Williams Bos 25 21.4 .185 4.1 1.17
.06 Kevon Looney GS 25 20.2 .116 4.7 1.10
.05 Jaylen Brown Bos 38 15.8 -.001 -2.7 1.40
wins Finals tm Min PER WS/48 BPM e480
.04 Andre Iguodala GS 12 20.0 .252 5.0 .79
.03 Daniel Theis Bos 6 24.0 .300 12.8 .80
.02 Klay Thompson GS 39 11.1 .031 -3.0 .13
-.00 Jayson Tatum Bos 41 4.1 -.030 -6.1 .86
-.01 Grant Williams Bos 16 2.5 -.031 -4.4 .06
-.07 Jordan Poole GS 25 -.3 -.235 -16.7 -.36
-.09 Draymond Green GS 38 -1.7 -.225 -14.7 .13
wins Finals tm Min PER WS/48 BPM e480
.67 totals Bos 240 18.8 .170 4.03 1.30
.34 totals GS 240 15.5 .037 0.40 .69
eWins per 480 minutes adheres to 1.00 as average
for the series. BPM shows that on average, a player on the floor in this series is about 2.2 pts/100 better than NBA avg. This translates to say an e480 of about .60 (or WS/48 of .060) in this series is NBA avg.
It's a tough environment!
Re: 2022 Finals: Celtics vs Warriors
Posted: Fri Jun 03, 2022 12:44 pm
by DarkStar48
Those Horford and Smart FMVP betting odds are looking good, especially if it ends up being a short series (that is, less opportunities for Tatum and Brown to have great games).
Re: 2022 Finals: Celtics vs Warriors
Posted: Sat Jun 04, 2022 11:18 am
by Mike G
Stephen Curry leads the Warriors, and he is overdue for a Finals MVP. He's been robbed once already, eclipsed by a teammate twice, and got some recent vindication with the inaugural WCF-mvp.
And in this run back to the Finals has he really been the biggest influence in any series? Here are the top 5's in each round, Dubs and opponents:
Code: Select all
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
1.17 Nikola Jokić Den 34 .633 32.9 15.6 5.6 1.7 5.5 1.1 3.28
.80 Stephen Curry GS 30 .628 32.3 4.5 6.0 1.8 3.4 .5 2.57
.64 Jordan Poole GS 32 .700 26.2 3.1 5.9 1.5 2.9 .4 1.89
.52 Klay Thompson GS 35 .642 22.5 4.7 1.4 1.2 1.4 .8 1.43
.45 Draymond Green GS 33 .600 10.1 7.0 7.9 1.5 1.9 1.8 1.31
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.86 Stephen Curry GS 36 .559 27.7 4.6 5.4 .8 2.6 .5 1.93
.81 Ja Morant Mem 19 .615 40.1 5.7 7.5 2.6 2.5 .0 3.36
.52 Jaren Jackson Mem 31 .509 19.4 6.7 1.5 .9 1.5 2.7 1.35
.46 Jordan Poole GS 30 .569 22.0 4.5 4.5 .2 3.7 .8 1.22
.42 Klay Thompson GS 35 .507 16.9 4.8 2.4 1.4 1.9 1.0 .95
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.90 Luka Dončić Dal 38 .546 28.8 8.9 5.6 1.7 3.8 1.0 2.26
.74 Stephen Curry GS 35 .580 26.0 7.8 7.2 .8 3.1 .4 2.03
.50 Kevon Looney GS 28 .697 15.4 15.7 3.6 .2 .9 .8 1.71
.45 Jordan Poole GS 28 .774 26.0 3.9 4.3 1.6 2.8 .2 1.53
.40 Andrew Wiggins GS 37 .531 16.0 8.1 2.6 .5 .9 .4 1.06
He just nips Ja Morant in round 2 -- playing twice as many minutes -- in eWins. What do other stats say?
Code: Select all
wins round 1 tm Min PER WS/48 BPM e480
.93 Nikola Jokić Den 171 32.8 .196 10.7 3.28
.73 Stephen Curry GS 150 29.5 .218 8.6 2.57
.62 Jordan Poole GS 162 23.2 .213 5.2 1.89
.47 Draymond Green GS 164 16.6 .167 4.5 1.31
.45 Klay Thompson GS 173 19.5 .114 2.2 1.43
wins round 2 tm Min PER WS/48 BPM e480
.81 Ja Morant Mem 116 35.3 .314 16.2 3.36
.76 Stephen Curry GS 214 19.8 .163 5.5 1.93
.46 Jaren Jackson Mem 185 17.5 .117 1.7 1.35
.38 Andrew Wiggins GS 198 14.8 .103 0.9 .81
.35 Desmond Bane Mem 200 13.7 .115 0.5 .57
wins round 3 tm Min PER WS/48 BPM e480
.66 Luka Dončić Dal 191 25.0 .079 6.1 2.26
.63 Stephen Curry GS 174 22.5 .185 4.9 2.03
.55 Kevon Looney GS 140 23.1 .251 6.2 1.71
.53 Jordan Poole GS 140 22.8 .246 5.7 1.53
.39 Sp. Dinwiddie Dal 137 20.5 .130 5.0 1.16
While Win Shares loves a winner (and hates losers), it's not enough to offset major advantages these other stats acknowledge.
Re: 2022 Finals: Celtics vs Warriors
Posted: Sun Jun 05, 2022 6:50 pm
by Mike G
According to these pages:
https://www.basketball-reference.com/fr ... pattern=H0
https://www.basketball-reference.com/fr ... pattern=H0
... In 7 game playoff series since 1984, when the home team loses Game 1, they still are likely to win the series. Needing to win 4 of 6, they have done so 61 times and failed 57 times.
In the 2-2-1-1-1 home-away format, teams in the Warriors' current shape are 57-54; and only once has it occurred in the Finals: In 1984, the Celtics lost at home to the Lakers and still won the title.
In the 2-3-2 format, there were 7 such situations; most recently, 2013, the Heat lost the opener to the Spurs yet prevailed in 7.
Re: 2022 Finals: Celtics vs Warriors
Posted: Mon Jun 06, 2022 9:22 am
by Mike G
Warriors 1 - 1 Celtics
avg score 107.5 - 104.0
Pyth wins 1.22 - .78 , eWins 1.11 - .89
Code: Select all
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.42 Stephen Curry GS 36 .612 35.6 6.3 4.7 3.0 2.1 .0 2.82
.21 Kevon Looney GS 24 .727 15.8 13.3 5.3 2.2 1.5 3.0 2.13
.18 Jayson Tatum Bos 38 .460 16.0 5.7 7.9 1.0 3.1 .0 1.16
.17 Al Horford Bos 30 .800 22.2 8.9 2.4 .6 2.6 .6 1.39
.16 Jaylen Brown Bos 33 .471 18.9 7.7 4.5 1.1 3.6 .6 1.19
.15 Otto Porter GS 20 1.25 23.6 6.3 .8 4.0 .8 .0 1.81
.09 Andrew Wiggins GS 33 .534 14.9 6.7 1.1 .5 1.7 1.7 .67
.08 Derrick White Bos 31 .611 18.9 2.9 2.8 .6 3.0 1.1 .66
.08 Marcus Smart Bos 28 .588 13.4 4.8 5.9 2.0 3.5 .0 .71
.08 Robert Williams Bos 20 1.00 14.2 7.5 .9 .9 1.9 5.4 .99
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.06 Draymond Green GS 37 .325 3.8 8.9 6.1 1.5 2.0 .5 .40
.06 Payton Pritchard Bos 17 .545 9.8 9.6 3.7 .9 1.0 .0 .84
.06 Nemanja Bjelica GS 6 .900 30.8 14.7 .0 2.2 2.2 .0 2.32
.06 Jordan Poole GS 24 .565 19.1 3.1 3.5 1.4 4.9 .0 .58
.04 Gary Payton GS 13 .875 13.5 4.4 4.0 .0 .0 .0 .69
.03 Andre Iguodala GS 6 .875 28.3 .0 7.4 .0 2.4 .0 1.38
.02 Aaron Nesmith Bos 6 .500 8.9 5.6 5.3 2.7 .0 .0 1.03
.01 Klay Thompson GS 35 .382 8.5 2.9 2.1 1.0 1.1 .0 .06
.00 Daniel Theis Bos 10 .750 4.9 7.5 1.4 .0 1.5 2.9 .07
-.01 Grant Williams Bos 19 .600 4.8 3.6 3.4 .0 .0 .8 -.09
shooting : Bos .573 - .561 GS
rebounds: Bos 41.0 - 40.5 GS
turnovers:
GS 13.0 - 16.0 Bos
Code: Select all
wins Finals tm mpg PER WS/48 BPM e480 perW WS bpmW eWin
.42 Curry GS 36 30.2 .262 13.9 2.82 .40 .39 .51 .42
.26 Looney GS 24 28.1 .321 11.8 2.13 .24 .31 .30 .21
.20 Porter GS 20 24.3 .298 13.6 1.81 .17 .24 .27 .15
.18 Horford Bos 30 17.2 .154 4.6 1.39 .16 .19 .20 .17
.11 Tatum Bos 38 11.7 .022 1.0 1.16 .10 .03 .15 .18
.11 R Williams Bos 20 18.6 .181 3.7 .99 .11 .15 .12 .08
.10 White Bos 31 13.5 .084 1.0 .66 .11 .11 .12 .08
.09 Wiggins GS 33 13.4 .070 -0.7 .67 .11 .10 .09 .09
.08 Pritchard Bos 17 16.7 .131 3.6 .84 .08 .09 .10 .06
.07 Smart Bos 28 12.4 .057 -0.5 .71 .08 .07 .08 .08
wins Finals tm mpg PER WS/48 BPM e480 perW WS bpmW eWin
.07 Bjelica GS 6 31.6 .357 11.7 2.32 .07 .09 .08 .06
.07 Payton GS 13 15.2 .189 4.6 .69 .05 .10 .09 .04
.06 Brown Bos 33 13.1 -.041 -2.8 1.19 .11 -.05 .03 .16
.05 Iguodala GS 6 20.0 .279 5.0 1.38 .04 .07 .04 .03
.04 Nesmith Bos 6 19.9 .189 9.5 1.03 .04 .04 .06 .02
.03 G Williams Bos 19 8.0 .079 -0.8 -.09 .02 .06 .05 -.01
.03 Green GS 37 7.4 .022 -4.3 .40 .02 .03 -.01 .06
.02 Theis Bos 10 8.7 .065 0.4 .07 .01 .03 .04 .00
.01 Poole GS 24 9.8 -.043 -4.4 .58 .04 -.04 -.01 .06
-.05 Thompson GS 35 4.7 -.062 -7.5 .06 -.02 -.09 -.10 .01
wins Finals tm mpg PER WS/48 BPM e480 perW WS bpmW eWin
1.13 totals GS 240 16.0 .117 2.45 1.11 1.11 1.17 1.23 1.11
0.92 totals Bos 240 14.2 .085 1.79 .89 .91 .85 1.11 .89
Re: 2022 Finals: Celtics vs Warriors
Posted: Mon Jun 06, 2022 1:19 pm
by DarkStar48
Two games in, and Curry is far and away the most valuable player on either team. Horford for FMVP is becoming more of a possibility if BOS ends up winning.
I have not been surprised by OPJ’s impact this playoffs — he is one of the best wings in the NBA and will be one of hottest free agents this offseason.
However, I (and I don’t think anyone) expected Looney to be performing as well as as he is, especially against players (Powell, Williams, Horford) who most observers would have considered as good if not clearly better, at least either offensively or defensively, as him.
Re: 2022 Finals: Celtics vs Warriors
Posted: Mon Jun 06, 2022 2:15 pm
by Mike G
Looney was among the 20 most-improved players relative to last season, if you look at that thread. He added about 3 pts and 3 reb per 36 from last year.
And in the OP in this thread, it seems he has stepped up in each series -- starting slowly against Jokic, getting stronger each round.
He was very good in 2019, then missed at least half of the next 2 seasons. He's just back to his previous trajectory.
Otto Porter is a similar story, 4 years ago on an all-star path in Washington, then 3 mostly lost years, on the scrap heap in Orlando before the Dubs got him for pennies on the dollar. Now with career high Reb%, career low Usg%, his TS% is back to pushing .600.
He had abysmal stats vs Den, much better vs Mem, and sensational since then -- when he's been available. (see OP)
According to GameScore, Horford's had his 2nd-best and next-to-worst games of the postseason. Ranked against his full season of games, same/same.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/pl ... elog/2022/
Now a best of 5, with 3 games in Boston, Celts given a 60-40 edge at b-r.com
Re: 2022 Finals: Celtics vs Warriors
Posted: Thu Jun 09, 2022 1:30 pm
by Mike G
Celtics 2 - 1 Warriors
avg score 108 - 105
Pyth wins 1.78 - 1.22 , eWins 1.64 - 1.36
Code: Select all
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.52 Stephen Curry GS 36 .635 34.6 5.5 3.6 2.6 2.4 .0 2.33
.35 Jaylen Brown Bos 35 .544 23.1 8.5 4.6 .7 2.9 .7 1.60
.33 Jayson Tatum Bos 39 .475 18.0 5.9 7.9 1.0 2.6 .0 1.36
.30 Al Horford Bos 30 .765 20.5 9.9 4.1 .9 1.7 .8 1.61
.25 Kevon Looney GS 21 .733 16.3 14.3 5.6 1.7 2.9 2.3 1.87
.21 Robert Williams Bos 22 .900 14.1 11.1 .6 2.3 1.2 5.6 1.56
.19 Marcus Smart Bos 31 .587 18.3 6.0 5.5 1.2 4.1 .0 .98
.18 Otto Porter GS 20 1.17 20.8 4.7 2.7 3.2 1.1 .0 1.41
.15 Andrew Wiggins GS 35 .521 14.4 6.8 1.3 1.0 2.1 1.7 .69
.11 Klay Thompson GS 36 .472 12.8 2.9 2.3 1.0 .7 .3 .48
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.09 Derrick White Bos 29 .548 15.2 2.6 2.8 .8 2.5 1.2 .48
.06 Payton Pritchard Bos 15 .577 10.7 8.0 3.7 .8 1.5 .0 .68
.06 Jordan Poole GS 24 .563 16.9 3.5 3.6 .9 4.8 .0 .41
.05 Nemanja Bjelica GS 5 .750 22.0 12.6 1.9 1.9 2.0 .0 1.63
.04 Grant Williams Bos 19 .615 9.0 5.7 2.3 .6 .6 .6 .31
.03 Andre Iguodala GS 5 .875 23.0 .0 6.2 .0 2.2 .0 .93
.02 Gary Payton GS 12 .643 8.3 3.8 3.4 .8 .0 .0 .27
.02 Draymond Green GS 36 .313 2.8 7.4 5.0 1.0 2.1 .7 .08
.02 Aaron Nesmith Bos 5 .400 5.7 6.9 4.2 2.2 .0 .0 .64
.01 Daniel Theis Bos 7 .750 5.3 8.5 1.6 .0 1.6 3.1 .28
shooting : Bos .573 - .569 GS
rebounds:
Bos 43.0 - 37.3 GS
turnovers: GS 14.3 - 14.7 Bos
Code: Select all
wins Finals tm Min PER WS/48 BPM e480 perW WS bpmW eW
.52 Curry GS 108 28.1 .203 11.6 2.33 .55 .46 .67 .52
.34 Horford Bos 90 20.1 .220 7.3 1.61 .29 .41 .40 .30
.28 Looney GS 63 25.5 .248 8.7 1.87 .28 .33 .32 .25
.27 Brown Bos 105 18.5 .103 2.2 1.60 .30 .22 .26 .35
.26 Porter GS 60 22.1 .251 12.5 1.41 .22 .31 .39 .18
.26 RWilliams Bos 65 22.8 .253 6.9 1.56 .25 .34 .28 .21
.25 Tatum Bos 117 14.2 .082 2.4 1.36 .22 .20 .30 .33
.14 Smart Bos 94 13.5 .071 -1.4 .98 .16 .14 .10 .19
.12 Wiggins GS 106 13.1 .025 -1.0 .69 .17 .05 .13 .15
.10 White Bos 86 11.1 .074 -1.4 .48 .10 .13 .09 .09
wins Finals tm Min PER WS/48 BPM e480 perW WS bpmW eW
.09 Thompson GS 108 11.4 .019 -1.5 .48 .13 .04 .11 .11
.09 Pritchard Bos 44 14.5 .120 2.3 .68 .09 .11 .11 .06
.08 GWilliams Bos 57 11.7 .122 0.3 .31 .08 .14 .10 .04
.07 Payton GS 37 12.5 .158 1.9 .27 .06 .12 .09 .02
.06 Bjelica GS 15 25.2 .231 7.5 1.63 .07 .07 .07 .05
.04 Iguodala GS 14 17.0 .224 3.0 .93 .04 .07 .04 .03
.03 Nesmith Bos 14 13.5 .096 3.7 .64 .02 .03 .04 .02
.02 Fitts Bos 7 18.4 .197 9.3 .86 .02 .03 .04 .01
.02 Theis Bos 20 8.7 .065 0.4 .28 .01 .03 .04 .01
.02 Stauskas Bos 7 16.3 .169 5.8 1.11 .02 .02 .03 .02
wins Finals tm Min PER WS/48 BPM e480 perW WS bpmW eW
.02 Moody GS 9 14.2 .090 4.9 -.03 .02 .02 .03 .00
.01 Hauser Bos 8 9.9 .096 1.7 .00 .01 .02 .02 .00
-.00 Poole GS 72 9.1 -.068 -4.9 .41 .05 -.10 -.03 .06
-.00 Kuminga GS 6 5.6 -.053 -6.0 -.62 .00 -.01 .00 -.01
-.02 T-Anderson GS 7 -2.9 -.294 -7.7 -.14 -.01 -.04 -.01 .00
-.04 Green GS 107 4.6 -.016 -6.5 .08 -.03 -.04 -.11 .02
-.04 Lee GS 7 -15.4 -.470 -24.8 -.98 -.03 -.07 -.06 -.01
wins Finals tm Min PER WS/48 BPM e480 perW WS bpmW eWin
1.65 totals Bos 720 15.6 .124 2.38 1.09 1.60 1.86 1.83 1.64
1.36 totals GS 719 15.1 .081 1.72 .91 1.52 1.21 1.64 1.36
Re: 2022 Finals: Celtics vs Warriors
Posted: Thu Jun 09, 2022 5:08 pm
by DarkStar48
Curry continues to distinguish himself among both teams, but BOS is in control despite the inconsistent play of their starters. Considering how much of the pre-Finals discussion around him was about how much he “should” get/have an NBA FMVP, I wonder if his great performance still plays a role in the voting if GSW ends up losing, even in a short series.
Horford seemed to have been shaping up (supported by the “wins” stats above) as the Celtic’s front runner for NBA FMVP, but the popular discussion I have seen seems to have shifted heavily to Brown. Horford had two net positive impact games (Gm. 1, Gm. 3) and one net negative one (Gm. 2), whereas all of Brown’s 3 games have been overall positive. At the same time, Horford’s cumulative contribution based on the box-score numbers appears to be greater than Brown. (Maybe plus/minus data shows something different?) Assuming Horford keeps playing like this, I don’t see a good reason not to give him the FMVP.
Porter Jr. has been huge for the Warriors, but outside of Gm. 1, he can’t get more than 20 min. on the floor from Kerr. Looney is another weird decision whereby he is getting less of a role despite his awesome production.
Re: 2022 Finals: Celtics vs Warriors
Posted: Fri Jun 10, 2022 9:13 am
by Mike G
Inconsistency from game to game will normally "come out in the wash" of aggregate statistics. But in this series so far, there's a low-to-zero correlation between Celtic minutes and all the b-r.com stats. For the Dubs, the correlations are very negative!
Celts top 4 are the same 4 in all these, in various orders:
Code: Select all
per-Wins PER bpm-Wins BPM
.30 Brown 18.5 .40 Horford 7.3
.29 Horford 20.1 .30 Tatum 2.4
.25 R Williams 22.8 .28 R Williams 6.9
.22 Tatum 14.2 .26 Brown 2.2
.16 Smart 13.5 .11 Pritchard 2.3
Win Shares WS/48 eWins e480
.41 Horford .220 .35 Brown 1.60
.34 R Williams .253 .33 Tatum 1.36
.22 Brown .103 .30 Horford 1.61
.20 Tatum .082 .21 R Williams 1.56
.14 G Williams .122 .19 Smart .98
Marcus Smart makes defensive plays and scores tough baskets. He could be the dark horse here. The next Iguodala.