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22-23 MVP Tracker
Posted: Sat Oct 29, 2022 1:12 am
by Mike G
With 4 or 5 games each; per game Pts/Rb/As
Code: Select all
Prob player tm W% eFG% Pts Reb Ast
.509 Doncic Dal .50 .548 36.3 9.5 9.3
.109 Booker Phx .75 .602 32.5 3.0 5.8
.092 Jokic Den .60 .680 22.4 10.8 9.4
.080 Tatum Bos .75 .630 32.5 8.3 3.5
.079 Morant Mem .80 .593 32.6 4.4 6.8
.045 Lillard Por .80 .598 31.0 4.8 4.6
.040 Mitchell Cle .75 .511 28.5 5.0 7.3
.022 Brunson NYK .75 .575 20.0 4.5 8.5
.013 Valanciunas NOP .75 .500 16.0 11.5 2.8
.010 Curry GSW .60 .614 30.8 6.0 6.0
Luka is shooting 26% from the arc and 64% inside it. Career best 86% from FT line.
Re: 22-23 MVP Tracker
Posted: Sat Oct 29, 2022 2:40 am
by Crow
Giannis missing on a games played qualification.
Re: 22-23 MVP Tracker
Posted: Sat Oct 29, 2022 1:02 pm
by Mike G
Hmm yeah, something did seem a bit off.
Anyway it's rather different today:
Code: Select all
Prob player tm W% eFG% Pts Reb Ast
.886 Giannis Mil 1.00 .661 34.5 13.3 6.3
.066 Doncic Dal .50 .548 36.3 9.5 9.3
.010 Morant Mem .80 .593 32.6 4.4 6.8
.009 Mitchell Cle .80 .548 31.0 4.8 6.4
.092 Jokic Den .67 .627 20.7 10.7 8.8
.007 Lillard Por .80 .598 31.0 4.8 4.6
.005 Trae Atl .80 .446 29.4 3.4 10.6
.003 Tatum Bos .60 .635 32.4 8.0 3.6
.003 Booker Phx .80 .577 29.2 3.4 5.4
.001 Curry GSW .60 .614 30.8 6.0 6.0
Re: 22-23 MVP Tracker
Posted: Mon Oct 31, 2022 2:30 pm
by DSMok1
Here are VORP/BPM (+ Win Shares and PER) through 10/30/22:
Code: Select all
Rk Player Tm G MP PER WS WS/48 OBPM DBPM BPM VORP
1 Luka Doncic DAL 6 220 35.9 1.5 0.336 9.5 2.4 11.9 0.8
2 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 5 173 34.7 1.2 0.337 8.7 5.1 13.7 0.7
3 Nikola Jokic DEN 7 230 28.9 1.4 0.29 7 2.5 9.5 0.7
4 Stephen Curry GSW 7 241 26.5 1.1 0.216 8.1 -0.2 7.9 0.6
5 Donovan Mitchell CLE 6 234 25.5 1.3 0.257 6.9 1.4 8.3 0.6
6 Jimmy Butler MIA 7 247 23.6 1.1 0.219 4.7 0.6 5.3 0.5
7 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 5 183 27.9 0.8 0.217 6.1 2.5 8.6 0.5
8 Tyrese Haliburton IND 7 234 25.9 1.1 0.223 7.9 -0.8 7.1 0.5
9 James Harden PHI 7 258 22.9 1.1 0.196 4.9 0.6 5.4 0.5
10 Ja Morant MEM 5 164 32 0.9 0.272 9.6 -0.4 9.2 0.5
11 Jayson Tatum BOS 6 218 28.4 1.1 0.234 7.9 -0.2 7.8 0.5
Doesn't take long for the usual suspects to rise to the top. Tyrese and Shai are the newcomers. Durant, Lillard, LeBron, Booker etc aren't far behind. Unusual names near the bottom include Westbrook and Jamal Murray.
If you sort just by BPM, with minimum of 100 MP, it goes:
Code: Select all
Rk Player BPM MP
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo 13.7 173
2 Luka Doncic 11.9 220
3 Nikola Jokic 9.5 230
4 Ja Morant 9.2 164
5 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 8.6 183
6 Donovan Mitchell 8.3 234
7 Stephen Curry 7.9 241
8 Jayson Tatum 7.8 218
9 Damian Lillard 7.6 175
10 Kevin Love 7.6 120
11 Tyrese Haliburton 7.1 234
12 Dean Wade 6.4 149
13 James Harden 5.4 258
14 Pascal Siakam 5.3 227
15 Jimmy Butler 5.3 247
Re: 22-23 MVP Tracker
Posted: Mon Oct 31, 2022 8:44 pm
by Mike G
Ha. Taking these WS and VORP and multiplying by 82/G -- since some have played 7 games and others 5 -- equivalent 82-G WinShares and VORP:
Code: Select all
ws82 WS*82/G Tm G WS/48
21.0 Luka Dončić DAL 6 .336
19.9 Giannis MIL 5 .337
17.1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 6 .257
16.3 Nikola Jokić DEN 7 .290
15.2 Ja Morant MEM 5 .272
14.6 Damian Lillard POR 5 .244
14.5 Jayson Tatum BOS 6 .234
13.6 Shai G-Alexander OKC 5 .217
13.3 Devin Booker PHO 6 .209
13.2 Jimmy Butler MIA 7 .219
12.7 Tyrese Haliburton IND 7 .223
12.7 Stephen Curry GSW 7 .216
12.5 Jonas Valančiūnas NOP 6 .277
12.3 James Harden PHI 7 .196
12.3 Trae Young ATL 6 .202
Joker last year led the league with 15.2 WS and 9.8 VORP, playing 74 G.
Code: Select all
v82 VORP*82/G Tm G BPM
11.49 Giannis MIL 5 13.7
10.78 Luka Dončić DAL 6 11.9
8.50 Donovan Mitchell CLE 6 8.3
8.21 Shai G-Alexander OKC 5 8.6
7.99 Nikola Jokić DEN 7 9.5
7.77 Ja Morant MEM 5 9.2
7.53 Jayson Tatum BOS 6 7.8
7.21 Stephen Curry GSW 7 7.9
7.11 Damian Lillard POR 5 7.6
6.43 Tyrese Haliburton IND 7 7.1
5.84 Pascal Siakam TOR 6 5.3
5.77 James Harden PHI 7 5.4
5.66 Devin Booker PHO 6 5.2
5.45 Jimmy Butler MIA 7 5.3
5.41 Trae Young ATL 6 5.2
5.31 Kevin Durant BRK 6 4.7
Not many players actually go 82 games, and it's arguable that maintaining peak production requires a few days off. Dame and Shai have already missed a game; so these aren't accurate projections but 'what if' they never miss a game fantasies.
In any case, it's Giannis and Luka well ahead of everyone else right now.
The stats are quite in agreement: Everyone in either top 10 also makes top 15 in the other list.
LeBron is 18th in projected VORP and (gulp) #104 in WS
Embiid ranks #44 in vorp and 36th in WS
Re: 22-23 MVP Tracker
Posted: Tue Nov 08, 2022 12:48 pm
by Mike G
Sudden flip at the top.
Code: Select all
prob player tm W% Pts Reb Ast Stl Blk
.593 Doncic Dal .67 36.0 8.4 8.3 1.9 .6
.292 Giannis Mil .90 31.8 12.2 5.3 1.1 1.4
.045 Mitchell Cle .80 31.2 4.1 6.0 1.3 .7
.035 Jokic Den .70 20.9 10.5 9.3 1.4 .7
.011 Tatum Bos .70 31.2 7.5 4.0 .8 1.5
.010 Holiday Mil .90 19.6 5.7 7.9 1.5 .7
.004 Curry GSW .36 32.6 7.1 6.9 1.1 .1
.003 Siakam Tor .54 24.8 9.3 7.7 .9 .6
.003 Markkanen Uta .75 21.9 8.8 2.7 .7 .9
.002 Murray Atl .70 22.3 6.5 8.4 2.5 .5
Re: 22-23 MVP Tracker
Posted: Sun Nov 20, 2022 6:21 pm
by Mike G
After 14 to 18 games:
Code: Select all
Prob% Player Tm W% Pts Reb Ast Stl Blk TO
.649 Doncic Dal .600 34.3 9.1 8.1 2.0 .6 3.1
.119 Tatum Bos .812 30.3 7.4 4.5 .9 1.3 2.4
.054 Jokic Den .600 20.8 9.5 8.9 1.5 .6 3.2
.048 Giannis Mil .733 29.5 12.0 5.3 1.0 1.2 3.8
.034 Curry GSW .438 32.2 6.7 6.6 1.1 .1 2.7
.034 Mitchell Cle .600 31.2 4.5 5.8 1.4 .5 3.5
.019 Haliburton Ind .600 20.6 4.6 10.5 1.9 .3 2.9
.017 Embiid Phl .500 32.3 10.1 4.6 .8 1.8 4.4
.013 Morant Mem .625 28.6 6.2 7.1 1.1 .4 3.8
.013 Booker Phx .600 28.1 4.8 6.1 1.1 .6 2.6
Converting PER and BPM to 'wins', multiplying by 82/(team games), we get projections for the full season:
Code: Select all
xyzW in 82 games Tm Min WS perW bpmW
18.6 Luka Dončić DAL 518 17.9 17.8 20.2
16.0 Stephen Curry GSW 519 15.2 14.4 18.4
14.4 Kevin Durant BRK 588 13.4 14.6 15.3
13.9 Jayson Tatum BOS 597 13.4 13.8 14.5
13.7 Shai G-Alexander OKC 536 12.6 14.2 14.4
13.0 Nikola Jokić DEN 404 12.7 11.9 14.3
13.0 Donovan Mitchell CLE 508 12.3 12.0 14.6
12.9 Tyrese Haliburton IND 512 12.8 11.6 14.3
12.3 Devin Booker PHO 556 12.0 12.0 12.8
12.0 Anthony Davis LAL 448 12.0 12.9 11.1
xyzW in 82 games Tm Min WS perW bpmW
11.1 Domantas Sabonis SAC 444 12.3 10.2 10.9
11.1 Jimmy Butler MIA 464 11.9 10.0 11.3
10.7 Joel Embiid PHI 425 9.3 11.4 11.4
10.4 De'Aaron Fox SAC 415 10.0 10.7 10.6
10.2 Lauri Markkanen UTA 592 10.6 10.2 9.9
10.2 DeMar DeRozan CHI 547 10.7 10.6 9.2
10.1 Ja Morant MEM 463 8.5 10.6 11.2
9.6 Giannis MIL 391 7.6 10.1 11.1
9.6 Karl-A Towns MIN 548 9.8 9.3 9.7
9.5 Kristaps Porziņģis WAS 479 9.6 9.4 9.4
xyzW in 82 games Tm Min WS perW bpmW
9.5 Mikal Bridges PHO 556 10.5 7.7 10.2
9.3 Dejounte Murray ATL 586 7.5 9.4 10.9
9.0 Jalen Brunson NYK 523 9.4 8.8 8.7
8.8 Brook Lopez MIL 474 9.6 7.5 9.3
8.7 Trae Young ATL 528 6.5 9.8 9.9
8.7 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL 497 9.1 7.7 9.2
8.0 Desmond Bane MEM 403 8.3 7.5 8.4
7.8 Clint Capela ATL 435 9.0 7.9 6.5
7.7 Evan Mobley CLE 517 8.5 7.4 7.3
7.5 Jerami Grant POR 540 7.6 6.9 8.2
7.5 Paul George LAC 549 5.9 8.0 8.6
Durant and Shai are conspicuous absences from the MVP Tracker.
Re: 22-23 MVP Tracker
Posted: Mon Nov 28, 2022 12:53 pm
by Mike G
Seriously a race now. That Win% column is the volatile element.
Per game averages.
Code: Select all
Prob% player Tm W% eFG% Pts Reb Ast Stl Blk TO
.227 Tatum Bos .80 .556 30.5 7.9 4.6 .8 1.2 2.5
.221 Jokic Den .63 .643 22.4 9.7 8.8 1.4 .6 3.3
.173 Doncic Dal .47 .556 33.1 8.7 8.4 1.7 .5 3.5
.136 Giannis Mil .74 .550 30.9 11.4 5.4 .9 1.0 3.8
.092 Curry GSW .52 .648 31.4 6.8 7.1 1.2 .2 2.9
.058 Mitchell Cle .65 .587 30.1 4.2 5.2 1.5 .4 3.2
.028 Booker Phx .68 .517 27.1 5.2 5.8 .9 .5 2.5
.027 Haliburton Ind .58 .567 19.6 4.5 11.1 1.8 .3 2.8
.021 Morant Mem .60 .514 28.5 6.4 7.6 1.1 .3 3.8
.016 A Davis LAL .39 .577 26.3 12.8 2.5 1.6 2.2 2.1
Re: 22-23 MVP Tracker
Posted: Sun Dec 04, 2022 9:08 pm
by Crow
I think most voters will go with Doncic or Tatum to have a fresh story.
But the point total vote among the top 5 could surprise. First place votes matter most but how they rank 2nd to 5th could prove pivotal. Not sure how careful the average voter is. Doubt many give big weight to metrics. Per game stats and popularity will be the main focus. Team record matters but I dunno exactly how much it will or should.
Re: 22-23 MVP Tracker
Posted: Thu Dec 08, 2022 1:05 pm
by Mike G
It's really a 4-way race at this time.
At the bottom are 5 more who rank top 10 in at least one of the other stats.
Code: Select all
Prob% mvp Tm W% Min e484 PER WS/48 BPM
.251 Giannis Mil .75 659 3.14 30.0 .224 9.2
.249 Doncic Dal .54 847 3.06 31.2 .262 11.0
.173 Jokic Den .58 677 2.81 31.1 .299 11.5
.160 Tatum Bos .81 916 2.39 25.6 .205 6.0
.036 Mitchell Cle .64 843 2.15 24.6 .221 8.1
.030 Curry GSW .50 800 2.58 26.3 .227 9.0
.026 Durant Brk .54 958 2.31 26.6 .211 7.0
.026 Morant Mem .64 695 2.18 25.1 .172 6.3
.025 Davis LAL .42 700 2.86 31.9 .284 8.5
.022 Zion NOP .67 609 2.16 25.7 .220 6.1
Prob% mvp Tm W% Min e484 PER WS/48 BPM
---- Embiid Phl .50 565 2.80 29.5 .221 8.6
---- Siakam Tor .52 518 2.29 25.1 .206 7.0
---- Shai OKC .44 820 2.23 27.5 .213 6.8
---- Sabonis Sac .57 741 1.97 22.6 .233 6.1
---- Butler Mia .44 533 1.93 23.8 .222 6.2
eW/484 are a couple days old.
Re: 22-23 MVP Tracker
Posted: Fri Dec 16, 2022 2:12 am
by Mike G
Same old story.
Code: Select all
Prob% player W% Pts Reb Ast Stl Blk
.397 Jokic .63 24.6 10.3 9.0 1.4 .8
.152 Giannis .74 31.1 11.3 5.3 .9 1.0
.144 Doncic .50 33.0 8.4 8.7 1.7 .7
.093 Tatum .76 30.2 8.3 4.1 1.1 1.0
.047 Durant .59 30.0 6.7 5.5 .7 1.7
.043 Davis .41 28.1 12.4 2.7 1.3 2.2
.031 Zion .67 25.0 7.3 4.3 1.3 .5
.031 Morant .67 27.7 6.6 7.8 1.2 .3
.031 Mitchell .62 29.2 4.0 4.7 1.4 .4
.030 Curry .48 30.0 6.6 6.8 1.0 .3
Likely the final appearance for Steph. Unless the Dubs start winning games without him.
Re: 22-23 MVP Tracker
Posted: Fri Dec 16, 2022 3:59 am
by Crow
Jokic has the numbers but many voters may want someone new. I don't think it will be Giannis. Team record may / should hurt Doncic. Tatum has a slight chance.
Re: 22-23 MVP Tracker
Posted: Fri Dec 16, 2022 1:23 pm
by Mike G
Oftentimes the narrative boils down to one player from each conference. In the East, I don't see anyone coming very close to Giannis. Embiid could, if he stays healthy and the Sixers ever get it together. Durant could, similarly.
The Mavs and Nuggs are both projecting to about 54% wins, so the current disparity could be momentary. Luka's numbers are very competitive with the Joker.
I saw someone interviewing Jalen Rose (and maybe Kendrick Perkins?), from two years ago, asking why Jokic is never mentioned as a leading MVP candidate. He had un-ignorable stats!
The fumbling replies were like, "He doesn't look like an MVP", or "People expect a more athletic MVP". Tail wagging the dog stuff.
Here's an updated projection of wins due to PER, WS/48 and BPM -- just the average of the 3, multiplied by 82/(team games).
Code: Select all
xyzW in 82 G Tm Min WS perW bpmW
16.0 Dončić DAL 960 14.1 15.8 18.2
15.3 Jokić DEN 780 15.0 14.3 16.7
14.6 Davis LAL 818 15.1 14.8 14.0
13.9 Durant BRK 1028 13.0 13.9 14.7
13.1 Curry GSW 894 12.2 11.9 15.2
12.9 Shai OKC 925 12.0 13.3 13.2
12.2 Mitchell CLE 917 11.7 11.0 13.8
12.2 Sabonis SAC 888 13.3 10.5 12.7
12.0 Tatum BOS 1036 11.2 12.4 12.5
xyzW in 82 G Tm Min WS perW bpmW
11.2 Embiid PHI 675 10.4 11.5 11.6
11.0 Haliburton IND 904 10.6 10.1 12.4
10.9 Giannis MIL 786 9.2 11.5 12.0
10.2 DeRozan CHI 955 10.5 10.7 9.3
9.5 Booker PHO 955 9.1 9.7 9.6
9.3 Morant MEM 753 7.9 9.4 10.5
8.9 Markkanen UTA 954 9.1 8.8 8.8
8.9 Butler MIA 669 9.2 8.1 9.3
Most of these guys have cooled off since I last ran this; exceptions being Jokic, Davis (!), Embiid, Butler.
Those guys under 700 minutes could get into contention if they can stay on the floor.
Luka has missed 2 games, Joker 3, Giannis 4; projections assume continuation of minutes to date.
Re: 22-23 MVP Tracker
Posted: Fri Dec 16, 2022 4:20 pm
by Crow
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/352 ... heir-picks
Voters mostly done with Jokic it appears at the moment.
Re: 22-23 MVP Tracker
Posted: Sun Dec 18, 2022 6:03 pm
by Crow
Jokic, Giannis A. and Tatum in top 4 on DARKO projection (with 2nd place Embid). Doncic 17th.