Some heavily hyped names have had weak to terrible early games. Not unusual but worth noting. Some ranked high have still yet to play at all.
Anthony Black the "amazing passer" with just a 1:1 A/TO and just 2.7 assists in 28 minutes per game.
Djurisic, the great shooting prospect... hitting 15% from 3.
The supposed massive potential of Hood-Schifino with garbage stats and a +0.6 BPM so far against meh opponents...
2023 Draft notes
Re: Draft notes
Scoot Henderson generally looking good, but modest ftas.
Leonard Miller, pretty good but 17% from 3.
Amen Thompson with just a 1.4 A/TO and hitting 17% from 3. Ausar hitting 42% from 3. Probably regress toward the mean but time will tell where they are on this swing skill... and what to take from it.
Leonard Miller, pretty good but 17% from 3.
Amen Thompson with just a 1.4 A/TO and hitting 17% from 3. Ausar hitting 42% from 3. Probably regress toward the mean but time will tell where they are on this swing skill... and what to take from it.
Re: Draft notes
Initial tiering is lightly begun at top but very preliminary. No ranking claimed within tiers yet, especially lower down.
2023 NBA Draft Big Board 1.0 (was too preliminary, superseded below)
More on a watch list. May still be missing some college players but hopefully not too many. Maybe more among the freshman who haven't proven much or anything so far. Haven't dug deep on internationals yet either but not seeing much there.
2023 NBA Draft Big Board 1.0 (was too preliminary, superseded below)
More on a watch list. May still be missing some college players but hopefully not too many. Maybe more among the freshman who haven't proven much or anything so far. Haven't dug deep on internationals yet either but not seeing much there.
Re: 2023 Draft notes
Other names besides those mentioned above that I consider likely to be over-rated include:
T Smith
Proctor
Rupert
Bailey
Lively
E Bates
Cissoko
Nnaji
McCullar
Kaluma
T Smith
Proctor
Rupert
Bailey
Lively
E Bates
Cissoko
Nnaji
McCullar
Kaluma
Re: 2023 Draft notes
Hood-Schifino down to -1.7 BPM estimate. Take his hype at own risk.
Djurisic down to 11% from 3.
Take his hype at own risk.
Anthony Black has been alright overall but his A/TO is still down at 1.25.
T Smith at a meh +4.8 BPM is not first rounder for me. 33% from 3.
Djurisic down to 11% from 3.
Take his hype at own risk.
Anthony Black has been alright overall but his A/TO is still down at 1.25.
T Smith at a meh +4.8 BPM is not first rounder for me. 33% from 3.
Re: 2023 Draft notes
A draft writer loving Andre Jackson, especially "if the shot comes around"...
Things to like for sure otherwise but 21% from 3 this season and 29% over 2.2 seasons.
42% efg% and 44% ts% and never close to average in college career.
Will the shot come around? I wouldn't bet on it.
Could be useful, especially with 1 or more dominant shooter / scorers but shooting / scoring this weak requires deep study / consideration.
Will be 21.7 years old at draft. That is often considered ancient for other prospects, except when someone decides to minimize or overlook that... and other things.
Things to like for sure otherwise but 21% from 3 this season and 29% over 2.2 seasons.
42% efg% and 44% ts% and never close to average in college career.
Will the shot come around? I wouldn't bet on it.
Could be useful, especially with 1 or more dominant shooter / scorers but shooting / scoring this weak requires deep study / consideration.
Will be 21.7 years old at draft. That is often considered ancient for other prospects, except when someone decides to minimize or overlook that... and other things.
Re: 2023 Draft notes
Whitmore had a bad 1st game but I'll probably give him a few weeks before reacting.
Re: 2023 Draft notes
Djurisic down to 8% from 3 but many still hold onto him as a first rounder. Under 66% FT%.
Whitehead at -1 BPM estimate. I am propping him in top 60 at the moment but that is not guaranteed to last.
Whitehead at -1 BPM estimate. I am propping him in top 60 at the moment but that is not guaranteed to last.
Re: 2023 Draft notes
Nick Smith is commonly found in top 5-10s but is performing weak so far.
Re: 2023 Draft notes
Emoni Bates at -0.7 BPM estimate because defensive estimate more than completely wipes out moderate offensive estimate.
Re: 2023 Draft notes
I have 7 lottery level picks different from ESPN / Draft Express and 20 significant rank differences on their top 30 guys.
I think there are 43 guys in their top 100 who are not in mine.
They imo put far too much weight on far too unreliable prep scouting and too little weight on current performance.
I think there are 43 guys in their top 100 who are not in mine.
They imo put far too much weight on far too unreliable prep scouting and too little weight on current performance.
Re: 2023 Draft notes
I give little to no weight to high school performance in general for NBA draft assessments and especially now with the college season moving toward half done. Showcases and international tournaments don't mean that much to me either.
"Skills" assessment for me is mostly based on stats evidence.
No longer have interest in or time for scouting based on eye test of high school highlights or that much even for eye test of college play, especially if not accompanied by full / fair consideration of the stats.
"Skills" assessment for me is mostly based on stats evidence.
No longer have interest in or time for scouting based on eye test of high school highlights or that much even for eye test of college play, especially if not accompanied by full / fair consideration of the stats.
Re: 2023 Draft notes
Jaylen Clark, almost +17 on BPM, more than 5% steal rate, 65% efg%, rebounding a PF. Nowhere to be found on some boards or at least nowhere high. Boards packed with hyped recent prepsters, often meh to bad so far in college.
Re: 2023 Draft notes
There are huge differences in probable draft position between what the 4th and 5th worst record gets, 6th and 7th, and 8th and 9th.
Re: 2023 Draft notes
Jaylen Clark may be Vecenie's "favorite player", but he ranked him 54th almost a month ago. You might notice I put him 2nd this morning. Where will he be on Vecenie's next update?
In my current opinion at least 9 of his projected lottery picks last month are not deserving of those ranks. I have notable rank differences with half of his previous top 60, fwiw. We'll eventually see how many difference persist. Probably a lot.
It maybe a bit early, but I cut back on the number of guys I am tracking to 107 from a high of about 140-150 maybe about 2 weeks ago. It could go back up but I want it to go down. I might care a little about who looks like 70th best but less about who is 95th, 115th or lower.
In my current opinion at least 9 of his projected lottery picks last month are not deserving of those ranks. I have notable rank differences with half of his previous top 60, fwiw. We'll eventually see how many difference persist. Probably a lot.
It maybe a bit early, but I cut back on the number of guys I am tracking to 107 from a high of about 140-150 maybe about 2 weeks ago. It could go back up but I want it to go down. I might care a little about who looks like 70th best but less about who is 95th, 115th or lower.