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Dynamic Duos in '22-23 NBA ?

Posted: Mon Dec 12, 2022 2:59 pm
by Mike G
A lot of attempts have been made to group superstars into a single team, but are any of them actually panning out?
Some are currently playing together, but only with major downtime to one or another. Anyway, here's a data dump listing every team's Top Two in VORP and in Win Shares (separately).
In each case the 2-man total is listed along with each individual. Teams have played 25 to 28 games, roughly 1/3 of the season.

Code: Select all

VORP   Tm   Player  VORP       WS    Tm   Player    WS
3.8   DAL   Luka     2.9      7.1   DEN   Jokić    4.6
3.8   DAL  Dinwiddie 0.9      7.1   DEN   Gordon   2.5
3.3   DEN   Jokić    2.6      7.0   DAL   Luka     4.6
3.3   DEN   Gordon   0.7      7.0   DAL  Dinwiddie 2.5
3.2   GSW   Curry    2.4      6.9   BRK   Durant   4.3
3.2   GSW   Wiggins  0.8      6.9   BRK   Claxton  2.6
3.1   LAL   Davis    2.1      6.9   CLE  Mitchell  3.8
3.1   LAL   LeBron   1.0      6.9   CLE   Mobley   3.1
3.0   CLE  Mitchell  2.1      6.7   GSW   Curry    4.0
3.0   CLE   Mobley   0.9      6.7   GSW   Looney   2.7
2.9   BRK   Durant   2.2      6.5   LAL   Davis    4.7
2.9   BRK   Irving   0.7      6.5   LAL   Reaves   1.8
2.9   MIL   Giannis  1.9      6.2   SAC   Sabonis  4.0
2.9   MIL   Lopez    1.0      6.2   SAC   Fox      2.3
2.7   BOS   Tatum    1.8      6.2   PHO   Booker   3.4
2.7   BOS   Brown    0.9      6.2   PHO   Ayton    2.8
2.7   IND Haliburton 2.0      6.2   BOS   Tatum    3.8
2.7   IND   Turner   0.7      6.2   BOS   Brown    2.4
2.7   SAC   Sabonis  1.7      5.8   IND Haliburton 3.7
2.7   SAC   Fox      1.0      5.8   IND   Turner   2.1
2.5   PHI   Embiid   1.7      5.7   MIL   Giannis  3.1
2.5   PHI   Harden   0.8      5.7   MIL   Lopez    2.7
2.4   PHO   Booker   1.4      5.7   NOP Williamson 3.2
2.4   PHO   Bridges  1.0      5.7   NOP   Nance    2.5
2.3   NYK   Randle   1.2      5.6   CHI   DeRozan  3.3
2.3   NYK   Brunson  1.1      5.6   CHI   Vučević  2.3
2.2   ATL   Young    1.1      5.6   UTA  Markkanen 3.1
2.2   ATL   Murray   1.1      5.6   UTA   Olynyk   2.5
2.2   MEM   Morant   1.5      5.5   NYK   Brunson  2.8
2.2   MEM   Bane     0.7      5.5   NYK   Randle   2.7
2.2   NOP Williamson 1.4      5.4   PHI   Embiid   3.2
2.2   NOP   Nance    0.8      5.4   PHI   Harris   2.1
2.2   OKC   Shai     1.8      5.2   OKC   Shai     3.8
2.2   OKC Isaiah Joe 0.4      5.2   OKC  J. R-Earl 1.5
2.0   CHI   DeRozan  1.1      5.2   MIA   Butler   3.0
2.0   CHI   Vučević  0.9      5.2   MIA   Adebayo  2.2
2.0   MIA   Butler   1.3      5.2   MIN   Gobert   3.0
2.0   MIA   Herro    0.7      5.2   MIN   Towns    2.2
1.9   UTA  Markkanen 1.1      4.9   ATL   Capela   2.9
1.9   UTA   Olynyk   0.8      4.9   ATL   Young    2.0
1.9   TOR   Siakam   1.3      4.6   WAS  Porziņģis 2.9
1.9   TOR   Anunoby  0.6      4.6   WAS   Beal     1.7
1.8   POR   Grant    0.9      4.6   POR   Grant    2.6
1.8   POR   Lillard  0.9      4.6   POR   Simons   2.0
1.8   WAS  Porziņģis 1.1      4.5   MEM   Morant   2.5
1.8   WAS   Beal     0.7      4.5   MEM   Aldama   2.0
1.4   MIN   Towns    0.9      4.3   TOR   Siakam   2.4
1.4   MIN   Gobert   0.5      4.3   TOR   Anunoby  1.9
1.3   LAC   George   0.9      3.8   CHO   Plumlee  2.0
1.3   LAC   Batum    0.4      3.8   CHO  Richards  1.8
1.2   DET Bogdanović 0.9      3.6   ORL  F Wagner  1.9
1.2   DET   Burks    0.3      3.6   ORL   Bol      1.7
1.0   SAS   Poeltl   0.5      3.5   DET Bogdanović 2.1
1.0   SAS   Vassell  0.5      3.5   DET   Stewart  1.4
0.9   CHO   Plumlee  0.5      3.0   LAC   George   1.5
0.9   CHO   Oubre    0.4      3.0   LAC   Mann     1.5
0.8   ORL  F Wagner  0.4      3.0   HOU   Şengün   1.6
0.8   ORL   Carter   0.4      3.0   HOU   Martin   1.3
0.6   HOU   Şengün   0.3      2.5   SAS   Poeltl   1.4
0.6   HOU   Martin   0.3      2.5   SAS   Vassell  1.1
https://www.basketball-reference.com/le ... anced.html
The most productive duos at the top tend to be one superstar and whatever next-best (or most durable) teammate. But there's no Stockton or Pippen-level sidekick.
Knicks, Suns and Hawks may have the best 2nd-best players, though we aren't sure who is #1.

Re: Dynamic Duos in '22-23 NBA ?

Posted: Tue Dec 13, 2022 10:41 am
by Crow
Cavs are only team with 2 players each over +3 on winshares, though plenty are close.

Game level data (by Game score or otherwise) would be interesting to see. Which pairs most often reach a threshold together and which pairs most often "take turns" being highly productive.

Re: Dynamic Duos in '22-23 NBA ?

Posted: Sun Dec 18, 2022 4:39 pm
by Crow
Highest paid 2nd fiddles on Winshares are Beal, Towns, Harris, Brown, Fox, Ayton, Vucevic and Simons. A number of GM overpays in there but shoulder shrug.

Leonard, Irving and Westbrook among highest paid not to be top 2 on team.

Not super impressed with the margin over competition of any of the top duos.

Re: Dynamic Duos in '22-23 NBA ?

Posted: Wed Dec 21, 2022 6:33 am
by Crow
Any interest in comparing very top duos from past years to now?

Re: Dynamic Duos in '22-23 NBA ?

Posted: Wed Dec 21, 2022 11:21 am
by Mike G
Crow wrote: Wed Dec 21, 2022 6:33 am Any interest in comparing very top duos from past years to now?
just do it

Re: Dynamic Duos in '22-23 NBA ?

Posted: Wed Dec 21, 2022 2:39 pm
by Mike G
Here is an eWins version for this season, projected to 82 games at current minutes.

Code: Select all

eWins   tm    player 1       eW1   eW2    player 2
23.9   Bos   Jayson Tatum   13.5  10.4   Jaylen Brown
23.7   Dal   Luka Dončić    16.5   7.2   Christian Wood
22.3   LAL   Anthony Davis  13.4   8.9   LeBron James
21.9   Mil   Giannis        14.2   7.8   Bobby Portis
21.7   Brk   Kevin Durant   14.2   7.5   Kyrie Irving
21.7   Den   Nikola Jokić   14.9   6.8   Aaron Gordon
20.7   Cle   Do. Mitchell   12.2   8.5   Evan Mobley
20.5   Sac   Do. Sabonis    12.0   8.5   De'Aaron Fox
19.9   Phl   Joel Embiid    13.0   6.9   Tobias Harris
18.8   Phx   Devin Booker   10.8   8.0   Deandre Ayton
18.8   NYK   Julius Randle  10.0   8.8   Jalen Brunson
18.3   Chi   DeMar DeRozan  10.0   8.3   Nikola Vučević
17.6   GSW   Stephen Curry  12.3   5.3   Andrew Wiggins
17.5   NOP  Zion Williamson 10.2   7.4  Jo. Valančiūnas
17.1   Was   Kr. Porziņģis   9.9   7.2   Kyle Kuzma
16.6   Mia   Bam Adebayo     8.7   7.9   Jimmy Butler
16.6   OKC  Sh. G-Alexander 12.0   4.6   Josh Giddey
16.2   Ind   Ty. Haliburton  9.8   6.4   Myles Turner
15.8   Atl   Trae Young      8.9   6.9  Dejounte Murray
15.1   Min  Anthony Edwards  8.2   6.9   Rudy Gobert
14.9   Mem   Ja Morant      10.3   4.6   Dillon Brooks
14.6   Por   Damian Lillard  7.5   7.1  Anfernee Simons
14.1   Tor   Pascal Siakam   8.5   5.6   OG Anunoby
14.1   Uta  Lauri Markkanen  8.8   5.2  Jordan Clarkson
12.4   Cha   Kelly Oubre     6.8   5.7   Mason Plumlee
12.4   Orl   Paolo Banchero  6.3   6.0   Franz Wagner
12.3   LAC   Paul George     7.2   5.2   Ivica Zubac
11.7   Hou   Alperen Şengün  6.2   5.5   Kevin Porter 
10.3   SAS   Devin Vassell   5.3   5.0   Jakob Poeltl
9.9    Det  Boj. Bogdanović  6.0   3.9   Isaiah Stewart
Jaylen Brown would be the main man on about half of teams.

Re: Dynamic Duos in '22-23 NBA ?

Posted: Wed Dec 21, 2022 4:05 pm
by Crow
Using BPM instead of VORP to be timeless, the current top 5 pairs had almost the same order among themselves as last season. Cavs were behind Warriors and now have a completely different top 2. I might look further back later.

Re: Dynamic Duos in '22-23 NBA ?

Posted: Wed Dec 21, 2022 5:24 pm
by Mike G

Code: Select all

year   tm    player1   ws1   v1    player2   ws2   v2     WS    VORP
2019   Hou   Harden   15.2   9.3   Capela   10.8   2.8   26.0   12.1
2019   GSW   Durant   11.5   5.1   Curry     9.7   5.1   21.2   10.2
2018   Hou   Harden   15.4   7.7   Paul     10.2   4.2   25.6   11.9
.                                  Capela   10.2   2.8   35.8   14.7
2017   GSW   Curry    12.6   5.9   Durant   12.0   5.7   24.6   11.6
2017   LAC   Jordan   11.8   3.5   Paul     10.6   5.2   22.4    8.7
2016   OKC   Durant   14.5   7.8  Westbrook 14.0   6.8   28.5   14.6
2016   LAC   Paul     12.7   6.0   Jordan   11.5   3.2   24.2    9.2
2016   GSW   Curry    17.9   9.5   Green    11.1   5.3   29.0   14.8
2016   SAS   Leonard  13.7   6.7   Aldridge 10.1   2.5   23.8    9.2

year   tm    player1   ws1   v1    player2   ws2   v2     WS    VORP
2015   LAC   Paul     16.1   7.2   Jordan   12.8   3.5   28.9   10.7
2015   Chi   Butler   11.2   4.2   P Gasol  10.4   3.7   21.6    7.9
2015   Cle   LeBron   10.4   5.7   Irving   10.4   4.2   20.8    9.9
2014   LAC   Paul     12.2   5.8   Griffin  12.2   4.7   24.4   10.5
.                                  Jordan   11.1   3.3   35.5   13.8
2013   OKC   Durant   18.9   8.9  Westbrook 11.6   4.6   30.5   13.5
2013   LAC   Paul     13.9   6.4   Griffin  10.6   4.0   24.5   10.4
2012 * OKC   Durant   12.2   5.8   Harden    9.3   3.1   21.5    8.9
2012 * LAC   Paul     12.7   6.1   Griffin   9.2   3.4   21.9    9.5
2012 * LAL   P Gasol   8.3   3.3   Bynum     8.0   2.6   16.3    5.9
2012 * Mia   LeBron   14.5   7.6   Wade      7.7   4.0   22.2   11.6
.    * short year. multiply by 1.24

year   tm    player1   ws1   v1    player2   ws2   v2     WS    VORP
2011   Mia   LeBron   15.6   7.8   Wade     12.8   6.1   28.4   13.9
.                                  Bosh     10.3   2.3   38.7   16.2
2011   LAL   P Gasol  14.7   5.2   Kobe     10.3   5.0   25.0   10.2
.                                  Odom     10.1   3.7   35.1   13.9
2011   Bos   Pierce   11.6   4.6   Allen    10.0   3.6   21.6    8.2
2009   LAL   P Gasol  13.9   5.0   Kobe     12.7   5.9   26.6   10.9
2009   Bos   Allen    11.1   4.3   Pierce   10.3   3.9   21.4    8.2
2008   Bos   Garnett  12.9   6.0   Pierce   12.4   5.0   25.3   11.0
2008   Uta  DWilliams 11.3   4.5   Boozer   10.2   3.5   21.5    8.0
2008   SAS  Ginobili  11.1   6.0   Duncan   11.1   4.8   22.2   10.8
2008   Phx   Amar'e   14.6   4.6   Nash     10.5   4.2   25.1    8.8
2008   Tor  Calderon  10.2   4.1   Bosh     10.1   3.9   20.3    8.0
2008   NOH   Paul     17.8   9.3   Chandler 10.0   1.7   27.8   11.0
2007   Phx   Nash     12.6   5.3   Marion   12.0   4.8   24.6   10.1
.                                  Amar'e   11.2   2.6   35.8   12.7
2007   Dal  Nowitzki  16.3   7.4   Terry    10.8   4.3   27.1   11.7
2007   SAS   Duncan   13.0   6.2   Ginobili 10.6   5.1   23.6   11.3
2007   Chi   Deng     11.3   3.9   Hinrich  10.1   3.5   21.4    7.4
I just looked for teams with 2 (or more) players getting either 10 Win Shares or 5 VORP in a season.
In retrospect, it seems 5 vorp is less common than 10 WS.

Re: Dynamic Duos in '22-23 NBA ?

Posted: Thu Dec 22, 2022 12:39 am
by Crow
5 of last 17 title winners on this list. The title duos of 12 did not meet this level of dynamism. At least in regular season. Playoffs? Would be another search.

Re: Dynamic Duos in '22-23 NBA ?

Posted: Sun Feb 12, 2023 7:18 pm
by Crow
An update on top duos would be useful before playoffs. And maybe some look at rd to playoff historical trends fir these players (on their own or specifically together where applicable).

Re: Dynamic Duos in '22-23 NBA ?

Posted: Thu Mar 09, 2023 11:06 pm
by Crow
Top 10 pairs on raw team +/- on the court: 8 for Nuggets, 2 for Griz. Second 10 has more from these 2 and adds Celtics, Warriors and Knicks.

Have to go to 25th to get Suns. 29th for Sixers.35th for Cavs. 36th for Bucks.38th for Clippers.