APBRmetrics

Posted: **Fri Jan 06, 2023 1:55 am**

Over here at b-r.com, we see the biggest individual games since 1984-85, according to Game Score:
https://www.basketball-reference.com/le ... score.html
This shows the top 100 GmSc of the last 37.4 seasons, and if you sort by date, it looks like there are more of these Monster games in the last few years, than at any other time.

It also seems that these games have come in close sequence to one another, thru all 37 years. I'm calling 2 such games in a 2-week interval, or 3 within 3 weeks, etc, a Burst.

In the current less-than-half-a-season we've witnessed 6 of the top 100 GmSc recorded. Embiid had one early, and there have been 5 more in the last month; starting with Anthony Davis' 55-17 on Dec. 4 thru Donovan Mitchell's epic 71-point outburst on Jan. 2.

Some players known for huge production are just very consistent, while others tend to blow up the box scores. Here are the biggest showtimers:

Code: Select all

# in top 100 GameScores
14 - Jordan
11 - Harden
6 - Lillard
5 - Kobe
4 - A Davis, Curry
3 - D Robinson, Wilkins, Embiid, K Malone, Irving, LeBron, Jokic
2 - Wade, Giannis, Towns, Doncic, Shaq
1 - Iverson, Amar'e, Jamison, Carmelo, Barkley, Paul, Drexler,
 D Williams, Booker, Nowitzki, D Mitchell, VanVleet, Arenas, 
 Olajuwon, Butler, McHale, K Thompson, Ginobili, Siakam, 
 Short, Reggie, Abdur-Rahim, Chambers, Trae, W Burton

Zero by Bird, Magic, Duncan, Garnett, Pierce, Durant, Westbrook etc.

In reverse chronology, MGB's of the last 2.4 seasons:

Code: Select all

2022-23  GmSc    Date   Tm   Opp   Min   TS%   Pts  Rb  As  St  Bk  TO   BPM
Mitchell 60.8   Jan.2   Cle  Chi   50   .789   71    8  11   0   1   4   22.6
Dončić   47.5   Dec.31  Dal  SAS   37   .716   51    6   9   4   1   0   27.3
Dončić   56.3   Dec.27  Dal  NYK   47   .737   60   21  10   2   1   4   25.3
Siakam   48.5   Dec.21  Tor  NYK   41   .790   52    9   7   1   0   1   29.2
A Davis  49.5   Dec.4   LAL  Was   38   .810   55   17   1   0   3   2   20.1
                                       
2021-22  GmSc    Date   Tm   Opp   Min   TS%   Pts  Rb  As  St  Bk  TO   BPM
Irving   53.8   Mar.15  Brk  Orl   35   .817   60    6   4   4   1   1   26.7
Towns    46.5   Mar.14  Min  SAS   36   .789   60   17   3   1   0   6   11.7
Jokić    48.7   Mar.6   Den  NOP   43   .843   46   12  11   3   4   5   25.5
                                       
Giannis  46.6   Feb.8   Mil  LAL   35   .855   44   14   8   1   2   0   29.1
Tatum    45.9   Jan.23  Bos  Was   33   .804   51   10   7   0   0   1   38.9
Jokić    48.2   Jan.19  Den  LAC   41   .765   49   14  10   3   1   5   24.3
                                       
2020-21  GmSc    Date   Tm   Opp   Min   TS%   Pts  Rb  As  St  Bk  TO   BPM
Durant   50.4  Jun.15*  Brk  Mil   48   .783   49   17  10   3   2   3   24.6
Lillard  55.9   Jun.1*  Por  Den   52   .968   55    6  10   1   3   1   31.1
                                       
Embiid   50.8   Feb.19  Phl  Chi   35   .747   50   17   5   2   4   2   33.5
Jokić    47.4   Feb.6   Den  Sac   41   .693   50    8  12   1   3   1   27.2
VanVleet 50.3   Feb.2   Tor  Orl   37  1.001   54    3   2   3   3   1   31.9

In '20-21, 3 of the 5 MG occured within 3 weeks; and another pair in the playoffs*.
Since MG #100 is 45.9, I've applied the same minimum standard to playoff games; there's only one other such occurance.

Last season, 6 of the 8 monster games were in these 2 intervals.
Have we ever seen 5 MG in a month's time, before this season?

2019-20 gets its own window with an alltime high 10 of the top 100 -- all falling within the time windows with others.

Code: Select all

2019-20  GmSc    Date   Tm   Opp   Min   TS%  Pts  Rb  As  St  Bk  TO   BPM
Lillard  50.5   Aug.11  Por  Dal   41   .764   61   5   8   1   0   3   23.6
Harden   49.8   Jul.31  Hou  Dal   43   .838   49   9   8   3   3   1   19.0
                                       
Irving   45.9   Jan.31  Brk  Chi   32   .985   54   5   5   1   0   4   25.0
Lillard  49.6   Jan.26  Por  Ind   38   .832   50   6  13   1   0   1   25.9
Lillard  48.4   Jan.20  Por  GSW   45   .693   61  10   7   1   0   2   20.3

2019-20  GmSc    Date   Tm   Opp   Min   TS%  Pts  Rb  As  St  Bk  TO   BPM
Harden   46.2   Dec.13  Hou  Orl   36   .803   54   5   7   2   3   3   28.8
A Davis  48.5   Dec.8   LAL  Min   39   .749   50   7   6   4   1   1   18.2
Harden   52.4   Nov.30  Hou  Atl   31   .879   60   3   8   3   1   5   29.1
                                       
Lillard  46.8   Nov.8   Por  Brk   40   .758   60   4   5   0   0   2   26.2
Harden   46.8   Oct.30  Hou  Was   38   .739   59   3   9   1   0   4   10.6

The last two (top) were in 'the bubble'.

GmSc doesn't care about your minutes or what the opponent does.

Code: Select all

2018-19  GmSc    Date   Tm   Opp   Min   TS%   Pts  Rb  As  St  Bk  TO   BPM
Harden   46.0   Mar.22  Hou  SAS   37   .735   61    7   1   3   0   3   31.6
Giannis  50.4   Mar.17  Mil  Phl   36   .738   52   16   7   2   1   1   27.9
                                       
2017-18  GmSc    Date   Tm   Opp   Min   TS%   Pts  Rb  As  St  Bk  TO   BPM
Embiid   47.9   Nov.15  Phi  LAL   34   .811   46   15   7   0   7   2   30.3
Harden   49.2   Nov.5   Hou  Uta   35   .925   56    2  13   2   0   7   24.0
LeBron   53.2   Nov.3   Cle  Was   43   .751   57   11   7   3   2   3   20.1
                                       
2016-17  GmSc    Date   Tm   Opp   Min   TS%   Pts  Rb  As  St  Bk  TO   BPM
Lillard  48.6   Apr.8   Por  Uta   42   .719   59    6   5   1   1   0   35.7
Booker   54.5   Mar.24  Phx  Bos   45   .680   70    8   6   3   1   5   18.5
                                       
Butler   51.5   Jan.2   Chi  Cha   38   .772   52   12   6   3   1   2   28.0
Harden   48.7   Dec.31  Hou  NYK   42   .781   53   16  17   0   0   8   20.7
                                       
2015-16  GmSc    Date   Tm   Opp   Min   TS%   Pts  Rb  As  St  Bk  TO   BPM
A Davis  53.9   Feb.21  NOP  Det   43   .768   59   20   4   0   1   2   25.1
Lillard  47.9   Feb.19  Por  GSW   31   .820   51    0   7   6   0   0   38.1

Posted: **Fri Jan 06, 2023 2:31 am**

LeBron and Jokic with just 3 such each.

Hardin at 11 is impressive. Lillard at 6 given how few have 3.

Some of those with none are surprising.

Posted: **Fri Jan 06, 2023 3:24 pm**

Interestingly, BPM has a different view.

VORP (BPM * playing time) has Michael Jordan as the absolute best at monster games, including 5 of the top 11 since BPM is recorded (1983 at the game level).

Jordan has 13 of the top 100, and 70 of the top 1000.

LeBron's top is #31 on the list, but he does have 54 of the top 1000.

Harden has only 2 in the top 100, but does have 33 of the top 1000.

Lillard has 5 in the top 100, including #2 overall, but only 15 in the top 1000.

Posted: **Fri Jan 06, 2023 5:17 pm**

I put together a Tableau Public visualization of the top 1000 games since 1985 by VORP, if you'd like to take a look at them:

https://public.tableau.com/views/Top100 ... share_link

There does seem to be a trend towards more *different* players reaching these heights, at least in 2022.

Posted: **Sun Jan 08, 2023 11:59 am**

That is actually quite cool.
A top-100 game with less than 20 points: Andrei Kirilenko's 14-8-9-7-6
Kendall Gill hits #768 with a 43% TS, thanks to 10 Reb and 11 Steals.
C Webber at #14 w 51-26-5-3-2

You call it VORP, but it's the seasonal VORP a player would have if he did this every game?
I just wonder what part of a player's season VORP came from one game. For example, Willie Burton's 51-pointer.

D. Mitchell's 71-pointer ranks 3rd alltime by GmSc but only #65 in (lower case) vorp. Due to playing 50 minutes, in part.

It looks like the bar chart is calendar year, rather than NBA season -- why 1998 (no fall games) and 2023 are so flat.

Posted: **Mon Jan 09, 2023 3:00 pm**

VORP is sort of at the game level--it's just BPM +2.0 times minutes/48. In essence I'm treating all games as equal length per 48 minutes. So playing OT actually does allow greater VORP in this design.

By the way, I had forgotten to add in the +2.0 for replacement level, so I just fixed that. It helps players who played more minutes, like Donovan Mitchell. He moves up to #54

The reason his game isn't so high is that he had no steals, only 1 block, and 4 turnovers. His shooting/scoring and assists are one of the best games of all time.

Here's my list of top "Monster Game Players" since 1984, by total VORP compiled in the top 1000 games:

Code: Select all

    Rank Player                 VORP_Total Top 1000  Top 100   Top 10
       1 Michael Jordan               1546       70       13        3
       2 LeBron James                 1171       54       10        0
       3 Stephen Curry                 759       37        3        0
       4 James Harden                  698       33        2        0
       5 Chris Paul                    550       25        5        0
       6 John Stockton                 456       22        1        0
       7 David Robinson                371       18        0        0
       8 Damian Lillard                348       15        5        1
       9 Dwyane Wade                   348       16        4        1
      10 Nikola Jokic                  336       16        3        1
      11 Kobe Bryant                   326       15        2        1
      12 Charles Barkley               310       15        1        0
      13 Giannis Antetokounmpo         308       15        0        0
      14 Magic Johnson                 290       14        1        0
      15 Tracy McGrady                 269       12        3        0
      16 Kevin Durant                  269       13        0        0
      17 Kyrie Irving                  263       12        2        1
      18 Manu Ginóbili                 258       12        1        1
      19 Vince Carter                  257       12        2        0
      20 Clyde Drexler                 257       12        3        0
      21 Paul George                   250       12        0        0
      22 Tim Hardaway                  246       12        0        0
      23 Russell Westbrook             237       11        1        0
      24 Larry Bird                    233       11        1        0
      25 Ray Allen                     221       10        2        0
      26 Shaquille O'Neal              207       10        1        0
      27 Kevin Garnett                 195       10        0        0
28 - 284 Others                       9984      486       34        1

Posted: **Tue Jan 10, 2023 5:40 pm**

I corrected a few issues with the Top 1000 Games visualization. Should work better now!

A few notes:
- It looks like it's a bit easier for guards to get a true top game... crazy shooting/scoring dominates the greatest games. Of course, defense isn't picked up well in the box score.
- The 2006 season stands alone at the apex of great games. Kobe, LeBron, McGrady, Vince Carter, Wade, Arenas, Billups, etc.
- The 2023 season is on pace to be up near that level.

Posted: **Thu Jan 26, 2023 7:18 pm**

Lillard last night had the 11th best Game Score of all (since 1985) time, and only the 4th best of this season.

Posted: **Fri Jan 27, 2023 12:13 am**

By BPM, Tatum has the best recent year monster game, with Lillard taking 2nd & 3rd.

Towns and Harden with the least impressive recent monster games by BPM.

I am somewhat surprised by how big a gap there is on BPM rating between the best and least impressive. Turnovers hurt the 2 least impressive but the gap still seems huge.

By comparison the Gamescores are pretty tightly bunched.

Posted: **Fri Jan 27, 2023 3:04 pm**

As a reminder, BPM is per possession, whereas Gamescore (implicitly) and VORP include playing time. To convert to a VORP-analog, add 2 to BPM and then multiply the sum by MP/48.

The top 15 by VORP is more tightly bunched.

Code: Select all

Player                    Date       GmSc   GmSc Rk    MP     BPM     VORP    VORP Rank
Joel Embiid            11/13/2022    54.4      3       37     35.2    28.7        1
Luka Doncic            12/27/2022    56.3      2       47      25     26.4        2
Pascal Siakam          12/21/2022    48.5      6       41     28.9    26.4        3
Donovan Mitchell        1/2/2023     60.8      1       50     22.7    25.7        4
LeBron James            1/24/2023    42.5      18      33     34.7    25.2        5
Tyrese Haliburton      12/23/2022    38.8      36      38     27.4    23.3        6
Damian Lillard          1/25/2023     54       4       40     25.6    23.0        7
Donovan Mitchell        1/10/2023    41.8      24      36     28.5    22.9        8
Stephen Curry           11/7/2022    43.8      12      38     26.8    22.8        9
Luka Doncic            12/31/2022    47.5      7       37     27.4    22.7       10
Kawhi Leonard           1/10/2023    36.8      59      36     28.2    22.7       11
Devin Booker           11/30/2022    44.3      10      31     32.8    22.5       12
Alec Burks             12/28/2022    33.6     111      31     31.5    21.6       13
Kyrie Irving            1/20/2023    44.6      8       39     24.2    21.3       14
Damian Lillard          12/8/2022    39.6      30      38     24.8    21.2       15

Posted: **Fri Jan 27, 2023 4:19 pm**

By VORP, the high to low difference is less than 2 to 1, whereas by BPM it was more than 3 to 1. But by Game Score the range is only about 1.33 to 1.

It is observation. Including more defense (including shot defense) makes a big difference. The importance of shooting / scoring efficiency probably does too to some degree along with perhaps other metric differences.

Posted: **Sun Jan 29, 2023 11:50 pm**

What will LeBron do in the game where he break Kareem's scoring record?

How far will he take the total? 45k? Any chance he gets to 50k?

Posted: **Mon Jan 30, 2023 4:19 am**

On Feb. 12, 2022, LeBron had 26 points on 9-27 FG (2 from the arc) and 6-9 FT, in a 2-pt loss to the Warriors.
This gave him 36,526 pts in regular seasons, to go with 7631 in postseasons, for a total of 44,157;
eclipsing Kareem's 38,387 + 5762 = 44,149 total.

He's since scored another 1745, for 45,902 in his career.

Posted: **Mon Jan 30, 2023 2:39 pm**

I was talking regular season points since that Is the convention. But total points is a logical measure. I didn't know BRef had such a list.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/le ... eer_c.html
A healthy Durant could / should make top 10 on that by end of this season's play. Harden could make top 25 by then. Westbrook top 30, Curry top 40. DeRozan already top 50, Lillard top 75. George might make top 100. Giannis A. getting close.

On total points LeBron probably makes 50k. Maybe 55k. Probably not 60k.

Carmelo makes 30k on total points. Less playoff points than anyone in top 20. Oscar Robertson a bit lower in an era with fewer playoff rounds. Dominique and Vince Carter also low on playoff points.

Posted: **Tue Jan 31, 2023 12:13 am**

In the days of 8 or 9 teams, 6 got into playoffs. So the chances of a player getting zero playoff minutes was 25-33%.
Now it's 14/30 teams missing out, or 47%
On average, a player in the '60s or this century gets about the same % of minutes in playoffs.
Oscar in his prime seldom got past the first round: In 10 years with the Kings, he was 2-6 in series (0-3 vs Bos) ; then 6-3 with the Bucks, in just 4 years.

APBRmetrics

Monster Game Bursts

Monster Game Bursts

Re: Monster Game Bursts

Re: Monster Game Bursts

Re: Monster Game Bursts

Re: Monster Game Bursts

Re: Monster Game Bursts

Re: Monster Game Bursts

Re: Monster Game Bursts

Re: Monster Game Bursts

Re: Monster Game Bursts

Re: Monster Game Bursts

Re: Monster Game Bursts

Re: Monster Game Bursts

Re: Monster Game Bursts

Re: Monster Game Bursts