APBRmetrics

Kings 16 year playoff drought might end this season. 4 major positive personnel decisions (3 players and Coach) seems to be "enough" and probably more than past. 3 on the current watch, 1 inherited.

Did any previous group get 4 major personnel decisions right at same time? I haven't reviewed all the detail yet but probably not. Wasn't enough even if they did.

In 10 years since Geoff Petrie, Kings have had 4 GMs, 6 Coaches and at least 5 notable analysts.

How rare is 4 major personnel decisions right at same time, right enough to at least make playoffs, in general beyond the Kings? I am going to try to think / check on that later. Doesn't sound that difficult but I guess it can be.

Is 4 the minimum for playoffs? What is the minimum for conference finals appearance or title? 6? Or more?

Of course what is major enough to count is debatable. But it can drive inquiry and discovery. Warriors had 5 players over +2 BPM last season and the right Coach but could argue they were right enough thru at least player 11.

Lots of elements of course, personnel, strategy, team level factors, synergy etc. but a few personnel decisions are certainly very important.

No moves at deadline. Acceptable / "correct" or a mistake? I say mistake.

The Kings still shouldn’t have traded Haliburton.

First rule of NBA team building: identify high-end talent and build around that. A 22-year-old Haliburton is already better than 26-year-old Sabonis.

The trade improved SAC’s short-run playoff prospects, but they are in a similar situation to Minnesota with Edwards. If Murray doesn’t soon emerge as an All-NBA caliber player, they will be stuck in the West Conf. wilderness.

With regard to the deadline, they probably should have made a significant move. If you look at the initial FiveThirtyEight RAPTOR projections, while their odds of making the playoffs did not move in absolute terms (around 66 percent), they went from having the 6th highest playoff chances in the West to a more distant 7th.

This is because the teams around them improved significantly. Obviously, it will take about 5 games or so to see if the chemistry with those team’s’ new players works out, but the early takeaway is that they needed to do a major player transaction.

Murray is underperforming my expectations, possibly partly because of his "role". He is basically just a shooter, not rebounding or passing that much as others lead / dominate in those places.

But they still are doing pretty well.