https://twitter.com/SloanSportsConf/sta ... 98114?s=20
Was it a big mistake to trade him? His boxscore stats (especially shooting) were not near as good after injury / trade. DARKO trendline peaked at 500 games though individual games scored higher between 500 -600 games. The trade came at about 450. By BPM Perkins was a little better in first 2 full years in OKC.
Would Perkins have made a difference guarding Bosh in 2011 playoffs? Mostly Haslem in 2012 loss or Chandler in 2013 loss? Brandon Bass - Garnett pair was great in 11-12 regular season and playoffs, neutral in 12-13 rs but +3 / 100p good in playoffs. Would Perk have done better?
Perkins only played one game against Heat with Bosh and he probably mainly guarding Ilguaskas. If someone was really interested, could look for video clips of any matchup against Bosh in Toronto for clues.
KP-KG was amazing in 07-08 rs and playoffs. Still amazing in 08-09 rs, though 4 pts less than season before. No Garnett in 09 playoffs. By 09-10 rs, the pair was just good at +5 and in 2010 playoffs it was just+0.8. What would it have been in 2011 playoffs?
I dunno but I have doubts it would have as great as it was for a particular earlier glory time.
If trading Perkins was a great mistake, was it a mistake most by management, coaching, analytics or ownership? Many at time said time was motivated by not wanting to pay Perkins market rate.
Would be interesting to try to find RAPM pair data from that time.
Would also be interesting to see Garnett RAPM at C vs PF. Feasible with effort.
Would also be interesting to see "Locker Room RAPM", for player impacts beyond their on court time. Could be done similar to Coaching RAPM, just add variables for players off the court. Probably would want to do as 5 year analysis. Did Perkins have significant value as an off the court presence? Plausible. Do this test to check for evidence or at least a case.
If trading Perkins was a great mistake, that might mean that while Sam Presti greatly helped Celtics win one title, that he also may have had an important impact on that era not earning another one or more. And now either the Horford trade (and Muscala) will be enough for a title or not. Horford wasn't enough the first time or last season. Celtics chances for a title down to under 17% on BRef.