2023 Playoff misc.

[Mike G]

EDIT: Placing this 'Best Games' table up top for easy reference. Chronologically, this year's entries in Top 100 playoff Game Scores (since 1985).

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date  player   tm  opp  Min  TS%   Pts  Rb  As  St  Bk  TO    BPM   GmSc  *rk
4-20  Booker  Phx  LAC   44  .701   45   6   3   3   2   0   15.3   39.4   74
4-22  Morant  Mem  LAL   42  .700   45   9  13   0   0   3   25.5   40.8   49
4-24  Butler  Mia  Mil   41  .780   56   9   2   0   1   1   21.0   48.2    7
4-25  Booker  Phx  LAC   44  .793   47   8  10   2   0   3   17.2   42.9   25
5-05  Booker  Phx  Den   42  .908   47   6   9   3   1   3   26.6   44.3   21
5-07  Harden  Phl  Bos   47  .848   42   8   9   4   1   1   28.1   43.9   23
5-07  Jokic   Den  Phx   39  .742   53   4  11   0   1   6   18.7   42.4   31
5-14  Tatum   Bos  Phl   42  .746   51  13   5   2   0   0   28.1   46.0   13
5-16  Jokic   Den  LAL   42  .828   34  21  14   0   2   5   19.0   39.8   73
5-22  LeBron  LAL  Den   48  .712   40  10   9   2   0   1   20.0   38.8   92

* - Rank as of the date of occurrence. Booker's 1st entry has slipped into the 80's.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/le ... score.html
(scroll down to Playoffs)

Game Score is enabled by big offensive production, so top-100 appearances are very much era-dependent:

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year    #    multiples
2023   10    Booker 3, Jokic 2
2022    4    Butler 3
2021    9    Durant 2
2020    8    Butler 2, Murray 2, Mitchell 2
2019    4    Durant 2
2018    8    LeBron 5
2017    2    
2016    3    LeBron 2
2015    2    Harden 2
2014    1    
2013    0    
2012    1    
2011    1    
2010    2    
2009    3    LeBron 2
2008    1    
2007    0    
2006    3    
2005    1    
2004    0    
2003    2    
2002    1    
2001    5    
2000    2    
1999    0    
1998    1    
1997    1    
1996    0    
1995    4    K Johnson 2
1994    3    Olajuwon 2
1993    4    Barkley 2, Jordan 2
1992    3    
1991    0    
1990    4    Ewing 2
1989    4    Jordan 3
1988    3    
1987    3    
1986    2    
1985    1    

ESPN Experts fresh off their showing in the team win prediction contest, move to the NBA playoff (and play-in) field. They number 17, so they should have a nice wide range of predictions.
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/361 ... und-series
Play-ins are one game matches. Here's how they voted:

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West play-in      East play-in
LAL 17 - 0 Min   Mia 17 - 0 Atl
NOP 11 - 5 OKC   Tor 11 - 6 Chi

Well, an 0-17 start has been overcome before; maybe.

For the known first-round matchups:

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West Rd 1       East Rd 1
GS Sac   #     Phl Brk   #
4   0    0      4   0    0
4   1    0      4   1   16
4   2   11      4   2    1
4   3    4      4   3    0
3   4    1      3   4    0
2   4    1      2   4    0
1   4    0      1   4    0
0   4    0      0   4    0

Phx LAC  #     Cle NYK   #
4   0    0      4   0    0
4   1    0      4   1    0
4   2   11      4   2    4
4   3    5      4   3    9
3   4    0      3   4    3
2   4    0      2   4    1
1   4    0      1   4    0
0   4    0      0   4    0

Just a bit of herd mentality perhaps?

[v-zero]

I had money on Minnesota, thought they had about a 35% chance. They blew it in the second half of a messy game, but for my eye the game was closer than the bookies expected, who gave LA implied odds of around 77%.

I concurred with the books with regards to Miami vs Atlanta, giving Miami about a 66% chance. Clearly Atlanta had other thoughts, but I had no horse in that race.

[Mike G]

Wolves with 16 points in the last 19 minutes -- after 44 in the first 19 -- is perhaps to be expected when all 5 starters are going 41-45 minutes. Fatigue is a huge factor in such games.

Hawks with 63-39 rebound advantage would be their 2nd best, and Heat's 2nd worst TRb%, of the year.

[v-zero]

Rosters aren't confirmed, but assuming Nance is healthy I have today's games as follows:

Raptors 68% over Bulls 32%

Pelicans 70% over OKC 30%

Broadly speaking both are in line with the bookies, but I like the Pelicans to the tune of about 4% more than they do. They really ought to have seen off Minnesota in their last regular season game.

Edit: No money on these in the end, the odds and my predictions converged (to within the margin of uncertainty in my predictions). Two upsets, exciting so far.

[Mike G]

I don't know if these odds are updated after games played. If not, these are just pre-playoff probabilities of going to the Finals and winning the Finals. After one game by all:

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West   go   win     East   go   win
Den  .296  .114     Bos  .406  .308
Mem  .188  .076     Phl  .173  .109
Sac  .170  .057     Cle  .157  .108
Phx  .106  .035     Mil  .112  .065
LAC  .080  .018     NYK  .109  .058
GSW  .062  .018     Mia  .022  .007
LAL  .070  .016     Brk  .013  .005
Min  .027  .005     Atl  .009  .002

https://www.basketball-reference.com/fr ... _prob.html

EDIT: They are in fact updated daily.

[Mike G]

Good Game or Bad Game?
1st playoff game for everyone. In playoffs an avg NBA player has avg PER ~13, ws/48 ~.80, and BPM is still 0.0

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tm     player    PER  ws/48  BPM  e480
Min   Edwards   20.3  .072   8.6  1.59
Min  K Anderson 16.8  .055   6.4   .80
Den   C Braun   12.6  .305   4.6   .38
GSW    Curry    16.3  .012  -0.3  1.16
GSW   Wiggins   15.7 -.002  -1.5   .86
Phx   Booker    16.7  .002   2.6   .91
LAC  Westbrook   8.3 -.085   0.0  1.20
LAC   E Gordon  15.2  .187   3.4   .55
LAC    Zubac    13.1  .058  -3.2  1.43

tm     player    PER  ws/48  BPM  e480
Brk   Bridges   29.4  .094   3.8  1.62
Brk  C Johnson  22.3  .081   3.6  1.13
Brk  Seth Curry 23.1  .072   6.1   .59
Bos   Tatum     13.0  .130  -1.6  1.33
Bos   Horford    9.9  .165   2.3   .36
Atl   Murray    20.5  .043   7.0  1.84
Atl Bogdanovich 13.4  .037   5.0   .70
Mia   Adebayo   18.3  .072  -0.2  2.10
Mia  C Martin   14.3  .145  -1.1   .50
Mia    Lowry     7.4  .112   0.0  -.45
Mil  Middleton  26.4  .081   5.0  2.46
Mil   Matthews  16.7  .156   8.7   .55
NYK   Randle     9.7 -.016  -0.7  1.45
NYK   Barrett    9.1  .059   3.4   .99
NYK   Grimes     7.9  .153  -1.0   .28
NYK Hartenstein 16.9  .293   1.9   .76

Bring on the Small Sample Size banshees.

[Mike G]

2-game leaders:

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eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.50   Jamal Murray   Den   36  .646   39.8   6.5   6.6   1.0   2.7   .5   3.35
.49 Donovan Mitchell Cle   42  .598   28.3   3.2   9.7   2.6   1.8   .9   2.86
.41   Kawhi Leonard  LAC   40  .657   31.9   7.1   4.9   1.8   2.8   .5   2.44
.41   Joel Embiid    Phl   35  .648   31.9  15.0   5.6    .8   5.4  2.6   2.78
.39   Nikola Jokić   Den   33  .541   24.9  14.9   8.3    .6   2.3   .0   2.81

.38   De'Aaron Fox   Sac   38  .544   28.6   3.1   6.0   3.2   2.4   .5   2.40
.35  Anthony Edwards Min   35  .656   31.3   2.1   4.1   2.1   1.1  2.1   2.46
.35   LeBron James   LAL   37  .570   25.9  12.0   3.6   1.2   3.4  2.0   2.30
.34   Derrick White  Bos   36  .746   31.7   5.3   4.2    .6   2.8  2.6   2.29
.32   Tobias Harris  Phl   31  .695   30.3  11.4   3.8    .5    .6   .6   2.49

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.31   Jimmy Butler   Mia   36  .625   28.5   4.8   5.4   2.6   2.1   .0   2.10
.30   Jaren Jackson  Mem   39  .620   23.9   6.5   2.9   1.2   1.4  2.4   1.90
.30   Kevin Durant   Phx   45  .619   21.5   6.2   5.5    .8   2.4  1.6   1.62
.30   Devin Booker   Phx   44  .667   28.3    .8   4.2   2.1   3.3  1.2   1.62
.30   Anthony Davis  LAL   37  .515   16.9  10.8   2.6   1.2   2.8  6.0   1.93

.29  Dejounte Murray Atl   38  .520   23.4   6.3   4.6   3.2   2.0   .0   1.86
.29   Jayson Tatum   Bos   40  .587   26.9   8.5   3.4    .5   3.1   .5   1.79
.28   Jalen Brunson   NY   33  .490   25.6   4.1   4.5   2.8   1.9   .0   2.02
.27  Darius Garland  Cle   40  .662   28.4   1.4   3.8   2.2   4.3   .5   1.59
.26   Jrue Holiday   Mil   34  .526   18.4   6.7  10.9   1.1   2.2   .0   1.83

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.25   Jarrett Allen  Cle   39  .639   12.6  11.5   3.4   1.7   1.0  1.4   1.55
.25   Malik Monk     Sac   30  .676   29.7   5.4   2.5    .0   1.7   .6   2.00
.25   Tyrese Maxey   Phl   37  .667   25.6   5.4   1.6   1.2    .0   .5   1.64
.24   Rui Hachimura  LAL   31  .817   29.2   6.3   1.5    .4    .6   .0   1.88
.23  Khris Middleton Mil   31  .583   26.9   9.4   5.0    .0   3.6   .0   1.84

.23   Mikal Bridges  Brk   38  .646   26.5   4.8   3.4    .6   3.0   .5   1.45
.23   Ru. Westbrook  LAC   37  .457   14.9   9.6   5.9   1.0   2.6  2.5   1.51
.23  Michael Porter  Den   30  .630   19.7  12.1   1.2   1.2    .0   .0   1.81
.23   Jaylen Brown   Bos   37  .580   26.7   6.6   2.3   2.2   5.6  1.0   1.48
.22   Marcus Smart   Bos   32  .543   15.0   5.9   6.7   3.8   1.9  1.1   1.61

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.21  Stephen Curry    GS   39  .630   27.1   4.1   3.2    .0   5.0   .5   1.30
.21   Bobby Portis   Mil   28  .667   18.3  15.4   2.4    .7    .7  1.3   1.83
.21 Domantas Sabonis Sac   38  .486   15.9  13.0   2.6   1.4   3.4   .0   1.32
.21   James Harden   Phl   38  .456   16.1   5.3  10.5   2.0   4.6   .0   1.31
.20   Cam Johnson    Brk   34  .742   26.6   4.2   1.4   1.4   1.7   .5   1.42

At least one player from each team. Dubs with the worst best player.

After somewhat crude conversions to "wins", the avg of 4 summary stats:

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xyzW   per36 rates   e480  eWin   PER  perW   ws/48  WS   BPM  bpmW
.51 Donovan Mitchell 2.86  .49    26.5  .41   .314  .54   16.1  .59
.45   Kawhi Leonard  2.44  .41    30.3  .47   .260  .43   13.8  .51
.45   Jamal Murray   3.35  .50    29.0  .40   .333  .50   11.4  .40
.40  Anthony Edwards 2.46  .35    31.3  .42   .256  .37   14.2  .45
.38   Derrick White  2.29  .34    26.1  .35   .303  .45    9.5  .35

.36   Tobias Harris  2.49  .32    29.3  .34   .365  .46    9.8  .31
.35   Joel Embiid    2.78  .41    26.1  .34   .268  .39    6.8  .28
.35   De'Aaron Fox   2.40  .38    24.3  .34   .204  .32    9.5  .37
.35   Rui Hachimura  1.88  .24    29.1  .34   .333  .43   13.1  .38
.33   Jaren Jackson  1.90  .30    23.7  .33   .218  .35    8.1  .34

xyzW   per36 rates   e480  eWin   PER  perW   ws/48  WS   BPM  bpmW
.33   Kevin Durant   1.62  .30    21.7  .34   .181  .34    6.2  .34
.33   Nikola Jokić   2.81  .39    24.1  .29   .280  .39    6.2  .25
.33   Tyrese Maxey   1.64  .25    22.7  .29   .292  .44    8.1  .32
.32   Devin Booker   1.62  .30    23.2  .37   .158  .29    6.4  .34
.31   Jimmy Butler   2.10  .31    28.3  .38   .218  .32    5.0  .24

.31   Jarrett Allen  1.55  .25    19.5  .26   .261  .42    6.5  .31
.31   LeBron James   2.30  .35    23.7  .31   .151  .23    8.8  .34
.29  Dejounte Murray 1.86  .29    22.9  .31   .118  .19    9.9  .38
.29   Malik Monk     2.00  .25    25.3  .28   .299  .37    7.6  .26
.28   Torrey Craig   1.59  .20    24.9  .27   .259  .32   11.5  .33

xyzW   per36 rates   e480  eWin   PER  perW   ws/48  WS   BPM  bpmW
.27   Anthony Davis  1.93  .30    22.0  .29   .151  .23    5.0  .25
.26   Jalen Brunson  2.02  .28    21.6  .25   .156  .21    8.2  .30
.25  Michael Porter  1.81  .23    20.4  .21   .267  .33    6.4  .23
.25   Marcus Smart   1.61  .22    20.1  .22   .232  .31    6.8  .26
.25   Jrue Holiday   1.83  .26    22.2  .27   .185  .26    4.1  .21

.24  Darius Garland  1.59  .27    16.8  .21   .148  .25    4.1  .25
.24   Cam Johnson    1.42  .20    22.7  .27   .123  .17    8.2  .30
.23   Jayson Tatum   1.79  .29    18.1  .23   .147  .24    1.2  .17
.22   Mikal Bridges  1.45  .23    20.7  .27   .089  .14    3.6  .22
.22   Bobby Portis   1.83  .21    23.6  .23   .205  .23    4.8  .18

.21   Klay Thompson  1.25  .20    16.0  .18   .128  .20    4.6  .25
.20   Ru. Westbrook  1.51  .23    18.0  .21   .061  .09    5.1  .25
.18  Khris Middleton 1.84  .23    21.8  .23   .091  .12    0.6  .12

[Mike G]

Last 5 days have seen 3 of the top 75 playoff Game Scores of all time (since 1985):

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date  player   tm opp  Min TSA  eFG%  TS%  Pts  Rb  As  St  Bk  TO   BPM  GmSc
4-20  Booker  Phx LAC   44  32  .672  .701  45   6   3   3   2   0  15.3  39.4
4-22  Morant  Mem LAL   42  32  .615  .700  45   9  13   0   0   3  25.5  40.8
4-24  Butler  Mia Mil   41  36  .732  .780  56   9   2   0   1   1  21.0  48.2

https://www.basketball-reference.com/le ... score.html
Both were in game 3's of their series. Ja's is top 50, and it's his highest playoff GS; Booker's 2nd best.

Booker had 2 rebounds total in G 1-2, and 15 in G 3-4. Ties his lowest 2-G total for the year, followed by almost his best.
His 45 points without a TO may be unprecedented?

Last night's Morant performance by quarters:

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Q   Min  FG FGA  FT FTA  Pts Reb Ast +/-
1   6.9   1  2    2  2    4   1   1  -15
2  12.0   3  8    4  4   12   3   4  +10
3  12.0   0  4    5  6    5   2   5   -4
4  10.6   9 12    2  2   24   3   3  +12

Grizz were +3 points in Ja's 41.5 minutes and -13 in the 6.5 min. he sat.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/bo ... 20LAL.html

[Mike G]

Jimmy Butler with the 7th highest playoff GmSc since 1985; just above Jordan's 2nd-best.
Last year, he had 3 of the 4 biggest PO games (Morant the other).

Line added to table in previous post.

[Mike G]

4-game leaders.

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eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
1.00  Jimmy Butler   Mia   35  .692   39.5   6.5   4.3   1.8   1.9   .3   3.44
.97   Nikola Jokić   Den   36  .628   28.1  13.0   7.8   1.0   3.3   .0   3.33
.89  Anthony Edwards Min   40  .617   28.9   4.1   4.1   2.1   1.7  1.9   2.77
.75   LeBron James   LAL   39  .545   23.4  12.3   4.5    .9   2.7  1.7   2.40
.73   Devin Booker   Phx   44  .659   30.5   3.8   4.1   2.2   2.8  1.0   2.02

.70   Jamal Murray   Den   38  .567   25.0   6.6   6.1   1.0   2.9   .5   2.29
.70   De'Aaron Fox   Sac   39  .534   27.4   5.6   5.6   2.6   2.9   .2   2.18
.65   Jalen Brunson   NY   37  .542   27.3   4.7   5.2   2.1   2.9   .2   2.13
.62   Anthony Davis  LAL   39  .494   17.9  11.5   2.2   1.6   3.2  4.5   1.98
.61   Jayson Tatum   Bos   40  .579   25.8   8.3   3.4    .7   3.2   .9   1.86

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.61   Tobias Harris  Phl   34  .648   24.7  11.2   2.3    .5    .6   .5   2.16
.59  Michael Porter  Den   35  .643   20.7   9.1   1.4    .8    .0   .8   2.08
.59   Kevin Durant   Phx   44  .653   24.4   7.1   5.0    .8   3.4   .8   1.62
.56   Stephen Curry   GS   40  .640   29.4   4.1   3.0    .6   3.0   .5   1.71
.55   Ru. Westbrook  LAC   38  .545   22.5   7.8   5.8   1.5   3.6  1.7   1.74

.55   Trae Young     Atl   37  .519   24.3   3.7   7.5   1.7   3.9   .5   1.80
.54 Donovan Mitchell Cle   41  .515   21.2   4.0   6.8   2.0   3.8   .4   1.59
.53  Dejounte Murray Atl   38  .543   21.4   6.8   4.3   2.1   2.3   .2   1.67
.52   James Harden   Phl   36  .476   18.7   6.6   9.3   1.5   3.9   .3   1.72
.50   Joel Embiid    Phl   27  .588   24.9  13.6   4.3   1.0   5.5  2.4   2.24

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.48   Tyrese Maxey   Phl   37  .596   23.5   5.9   1.8   1.5   1.1   .2   1.57
.47   Ja Morant      Mem   29  .562   26.6   5.6   6.3   1.6   4.1   .3   2.01
.46   Marcus Smart   Bos   32  .596   19.3   5.1   6.1   2.7   1.8   .6   1.72
.43   Mikal Bridges  Brk   39  .531   21.4   4.6   3.5    .5   2.0   .5   1.30
.42  Darius Garland  Cle   37  .536   22.1   1.7   5.1   2.2   3.1   .2   1.35

.41  Khris Middleton Mil   33  .593   22.4   7.0   5.3    .8   3.9   .0   1.49
.40   Derrick White  Bos   34  .725   22.8   4.1   3.5    .6   2.0  1.4   1.42
.39   Rudy Gobert    Min   34  .602   15.0  12.8   2.0    .0   1.4  1.3   1.42
.38 Domantas Sabonis Sac   37  .500   14.4  11.9   3.8   1.7   3.8   .5   1.25
.37   Kawhi Leonard  LAC   20  .657   31.5   6.5   4.6   1.9   2.8   .5   2.23

Minutes are /4 to get the mpg column.

Alternative top 30 including all top 20 in eWins, Win Shares, or "bpm Wins":

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xyzW   thru 4 Gms     tm    PER   eWin   e480     WS   ws/48    bW   BPM
.97   Jimmy Butler   Mia   37.5   1.00   3.44   1.10   .377    .81  11.7
.89   Nikola Jokić   Den   28.7    .97   3.33    .89   .298    .82  11.6
.86  Anthony Edwards Min   28.8    .89   2.77    .74   .222    .96  12.3
.83   Devin Booker   Phx   27.8    .73   2.02    .90   .248    .86   9.2
.68   LeBron James   LAL   23.0    .75   2.40    .61   .191    .68   7.7

.67   Tobias Harris  Phl   24.7    .61   2.16    .83   .294    .59   7.6
.65   Jalen Brunson   NY   21.8    .65   2.13    .62   .203    .67   8.1
.65   Kevin Durant   Phx   22.1    .59   1.62    .72   .198    .63   5.4
.62   De'Aaron Fox   Sac   23.4    .70   2.18    .47   .148    .68   7.8
.58  Michael Porter  Den   19.7    .59   2.08    .65   .221    .49   5.0

xyzW   thru 4 Gms     tm    PER    eWin  e480     WS   ws/48    bW   BPM
.56   Jamal Murray   Den   20.7    .70   2.29    .52   .164    .47   4.0
.56   Tyrese Maxey   Phl   19.0    .48   1.57    .68   .222    .50   4.7
.52   Stephen Curry   GS   20.3    .56   1.71    .50   .153    .50   4.2
.50   Marcus Smart   Bos   21.4    .46   1.72    .54   .203    .49   6.2
.49   Anthony Davis  LAL   19.9    .62   1.98    .40   .125    .45   3.4

.49  Dejounte Murray Atl   21.2    .53   1.67    .35   .111    .59   6.1
.48   Ru. Westbrook  LAC   22.2    .55   1.74    .30   .093    .60   6.3
.47   Rui Hachimura  LAL   22.3    .35   1.54    .58   .253    .49   7.7
.46   Jayson Tatum   Bos   19.6    .61   1.86    .40   .121    .38   1.9
.46  Xavier Tillman  Mem   17.2    .31   1.13    .56   .199    .51   6.0

xyzW   thru 4 Gms     tm    PER    eWin  e480     WS  ws/48     bW   BPM
.45 Donovan Mitchell Cle   15.7    .54   1.59    .25   .074    .58   5.3
.44   Trae Young     Atl   21.8    .55   1.80    .28   .093    .50   4.9
.44   Jarrett Allen  Cle   16.0    .28    .87    .57   .178    .47   3.8
.43   Torrey Craig   Phx   21.3    .27   1.16    .57   .248    .46   6.9
.43   Kawhi Leonard  LAC   30.2    .37   2.23    .40   .242    .52  13.8

.42   Ja Morant      Mem   20.5    .47   2.01    .27   .113    .52   7.8
.41   RJ Barrett      NY   15.9    .37   1.34    .47   .170    .38   3.3
.40   James Harden   Phl   14.7    .52   1.72    .36   .119    .34   1.7
.38   Joel Embiid    Phl   19.9    .50   2.24    .37   .164    .26   1.9
.38   Caleb Martin   Mia   19.6    .28   1.20    .50   .215    .35   3.9

BPM adjusts to strength of opponent, so Sixers (vs Nets) don't look as good in BPM Wins.
PER is added for perspective, but no "wins" are calculated; so sue me.

[Mike G]

(waiting for b-r.com to update)
Correlation of various metrics to player minutes :

Code: Select all

avg    tm     PER   WS/48   BPM   e484      W%
.69    Min    .73    .64    .58    .81     .20
.63    Phx    .68    .54    .64    .69     .80
.63    Cle    .76    .36    .61    .80     .20
.62    Den    .64    .54    .56    .75     .80
.55    Phl    .42    .39    .74    .64    1.00
.43    Mil    .55    .38    .26    .54     .20
.41    Brk    .39    .29    .39    .56     .00
.36    NYK    .40    .19    .25    .59     .80
.30    LAC    .34    .11    .40    .34     .80
.23    Atl    .29    .11    .07    .43     .33
.21    Mia    .27    .07    .18    .34     .80
.06    Bos    .24   -.50   -.22    .73     .67

W% correl.:  -.28   -.17    .08   -.16    

Minutes correlation here means "agrees with head coach". Lack of correlation with "success" suggests a high % is not better or worse than low%.
Only included players in regular rotation, typically >10 mpg. Kawhi is excluded.
(I've only done this for series concluded before last night.)

[Mike G]

Late update: In the closeout Phx-LAC game, Devin Booker had 47-8-10 on super-efficient shooting.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/bo ... 50PHO.html
It was his best playoff Game Score ever and 25th best by anyone (since 1985).
He bumped Ja out of the top 50 and himself out of the top 75!
(See the best games Table now at the top of the thread.)

[Mike G]

Data Dump!
Summary stats for teams moving on to the 2nd round (incomplete awaiting GS-Sac).

Code: Select all

. Knicks          rd1   Min   PER   WS/48    BPM   e480
Jalen Brunson     NYK   188   20.1   .186    6.6   1.97
Josh Hart         NYK   175   13.3   .143    0.9    .80
RJ Barrett        NYK   169   16.1   .171    3.5   1.38
Julius Randle     NYK   143    9.6  -.002   -1.7   1.26
Mitchell Robinson NYK   141   22.4   .248    5.9   1.62
Immanuel Quickley NYK   118    8.1   .085   -3.1    .33
Isaiah Hartenstein NYK   99   13.6   .154    2.6    .86
Obi Toppin        NYK    86   19.4   .201    7.5   1.40
Quentin Grimes    NYK    62    7.1   .082   -2.1    .25
Miles McBride     NYK    12   13.2   .198    5.5    .55
DaQuan Jeffries   NYK     4   -7.9   .054  -21.8  -1.59
Derrick Rose      NYK     3  -43.4  -1.08  -56.2    .22
. totals          NYK  1200   14.8   .142    2.3   1.18
                 
. Heat            rd1   Min   PER   WS/48    BPM   e490
Jimmy Butler      Mia   186   33.5   .295   10.2   3.26
Bam Adebayo       Mia   158   16.2   .041   -2.2   1.53
Max Strus         Mia   148    7.2   .061   -3.4   -.32
Gabe Vincent      Mia   143   10.0   .014   -2.7    .32
Caleb Martin      Mia   133   17.1   .192    2.8   1.01
Kevin Love        Mia   109   18.4   .203    5.5   1.56
Kyle Lowry        Mia   106    9.7   .022   -3.1    .23
Duncan Robinson   Mia   101   16.4   .152    4.0    .95
Victor Oladipo    Mia    45   14.1   .058   -5.3    .74
Cody Zeller       Mia    37   13.6   .115   -0.2    .82
Haywood Highsmith Mia    34   18.4   .207    5.3    .96
Tyler Herro       Mia    19   19.4   .130    2.8   1.40
Omer Yurtseven    Mia     3    9.8   .154    7.9   -.21
Udonis Haslem     Mia     2  -30.8  -1.02  -44.0    .51
. totals          Mia  1225   16.6   .125    1.3   1.14

. Sixers          rd1   Min   PER   WS/48    BPM   e480
Tyrese Maxey      Phl   148   19.0   .222    4.7   1.57
James Harden      Phl   144   14.7   .119    1.7   1.72
Tobias Harris     Phl   135   24.7   .294    7.6   2.16
Joel Embiid       Phl   108   19.9   .164    1.9   2.24
P.J. Tucker       Phl   106   10.3   .133    1.5    .70
De'Anthony Melton Phl   102   16.3   .203    4.9    .86
Jalen McDaniels   Phl    66    6.1   .075   -4.2    .00
Paul Reed         Phl    66   24.8   .250    1.5   1.70
Georges Niang     Phl    62    6.1   .089   -4.9   -.29
Montrezl Harrell  Phl     7  -16.0  -.367  -25.0   -.71
Shake Milton      Phl     7   23.7   .427    2.9   1.43
Danuel House      Phl     5   -2.9  -.105  -15.3   -.06
Furkan Korkmaz    Phl     2     .0   .053  -10.3  -1.08
Jaden Springer    Phl     2     .0   .053  -10.8  -1.08
. totals          Phl   960   16.3   .176   2.16   1.32
                  
. Celtics         rd1   Min   PER   WS/48    BPM   e480
Jayson Tatum      Bos   237   20.9   .140    3.1   1.80
Jaylen Brown      Bos   227   17.8   .070   -0.7   1.27
Al Horford        Bos   196   12.7   .123    3.2    .72
Derrick White     Bos   196   18.1   .162    3.1   1.13
Marcus Smart      Bos   186   20.1   .174    3.4   1.39
Malcolm Brogdon   Bos   156   15.5   .107   -1.8    .87
Robert Williams   Bos   137   20.2   .213    4.1   1.14
Sam Hauser        Bos    63    9.2   .104   -1.2   -.05
Grant Williams    Bos    36   20.8   .260    7.4    .79
Blake Griffin     Bos     6   -2.8  -.052  -18.1   -.49
Luke Kornet       Bos     1     .0  -.009   -8.3   -.98
Mike Muscala      Bos     1     .0  -.009   -3.7   -.98
Payton Pritchard  Bos     0            
. totals          Bos  1440   17.5   .138    1.9   1.14
                  
                  
. Suns            rd1   Min   PER   WS/48    BPM   e480
Kevin Durant      Phx   219   22.1   .196    5.3   1.56
Devin Booker      Phx   216   30.4   .274   10.7   2.24
Chris Paul        Phx   193   15.3   .098    1.2   1.00
Deandre Ayton     Phx   172   14.1   .056   -4.8    .99
Torrey Craig      Phx   127   17.8   .198    4.5    .85
Josh Okogie       Phx   100   13.7   .145    0.5    .46
Bismack Biyombo   Phx    55   21.9   .188    3.0   1.69
Landry Shamet     Phx    55    1.6  -.075   -8.4   -.38
Damion Lee        Phx    35    3.4   .023   -7.1   -.40
Jock Landale      Phx     8   21.3   .141    1.4   1.49
Ish Wainright     Phx     7   -5.7  -.235  -11.9   -.09
T.J. Warren       Phx     6  -11.2  -.185  -18.3  -1.10
Terrence Ross     Phx     4   -6.3  -.225  -15.1   -.32
Cameron Payne     Phx     3   20.0   .251    8.2    .62
. totals          Phx  1200   18.3   .146   2.28   1.17
                  
. Nuggets         rd1   Min   PER   WS/48    BPM   e487
Jamal Murray      Den   192   22.0   .188    5.3   2.28
Nikola Jokić      Den   185   28.1   .275   11.5   3.21
Michael Porter    Den   180   16.6   .182    2.9   1.55
Kentavious C-Pope Den   165    8.8   .070   -2.5    .16
Aaron Gordon      Den   163   15.2   .184   -0.9    .96
Bruce Brown       Den   135   14.7   .125    1.1    .73
Jeff Green        Den   113    3.1  -.002   -6.0   -.62
Christian Braun   Den    63   10.6   .129   -0.5   -.07
DeAndre Jordan    Den    10    8.6  -.054   -4.9    .07
Reggie Jackson    Den     4    7.9  -.071    5.9   -.90
Zeke Nnaji        Den     4   54.1   .210   35.1   3.41
Ish Smith         Den     4  -10.6  -.205  -19.0   -1.0
Peyton Watson     Den     4    7.9   .013   -0.5   -.01
Vlatko Čančar     Den     2  -13.3  -.441  -22.0   -.18
. totals          Den  1225   16.0   .151    2.1   1.25

. Lakers          rd1   Min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e488
LeBron James      LAL   223   20.1   .158    5.6   2.10
Austin Reaves     LAL   219   14.9   .152    2.0   1.15
Anthony Davis     LAL   218   23.1   .197    5.6   2.37
D'Angelo Russell  LAL   187   15.3   .127    1.4   1.41
Rui Hachimura     LAL   153   18.4   .215    5.1   1.04
Dennis Schröder   LAL   133    7.1   .055   -2.7   -.03
Jarred Vanderbilt LAL   119   14.7   .150    3.4    .93
Troy Brown Jr.    LAL    88    6.8   .080   -0.9    .01
Malik Beasley     LAL    66    5.9   .035   -5.3   -.21
Wenyen Gabriel    LAL    21   15.4   .110   -5.0    .36
Lonnie Walker IV  LAL    15   13.7   .133    0.1    .31
Max Christie      LAL    12   18.6   .219    7.9    .87
Mo Bamba          LAL    10    3.0  -.036   -3.1    .20
Shaq. Harrison    LAL     3    8.2  -.030    3.0    .53
. totals          LAL  1465   15.6   .143    2.4   1.21

[Mike G]

About 150 players averaged at least 5 minutes per (team) game in the first round. So this top 30 in eWins per game is the top 20%.
Players knocked out of the playoffs are shown with a minus, like: Min-

Code: Select all

eW/G    per36 rates    tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.248   Jimmy Butler   Mia  .657   37.0   6.5   3.9   1.8   2.4   .4   3.26
.243   Nikola Jokić   Den  .565   25.6  14.0   8.7   1.2   2.9   .4   3.21
.204  Anthony Edwards Min- .592   27.3   4.7   4.5   1.7   1.5  1.9   2.51
.202   Devin Booker   Phx  .686   32.5   4.4   5.0   2.1   2.8   .8   2.24
.179   Jamal Murray   Den  .591   26.3   6.1   6.0   1.0   2.6   .4   2.28

.176   Anthony Davis  LAL  .546   21.8  13.2   2.0   1.3   2.6  4.4   2.37
.160   LeBron James   LAL  .543   23.4  10.5   5.2   1.0   3.3  1.3   2.10
.154   Jalen Brunson   NY  .526   25.7   4.6   5.2   2.0   2.8   .2   1.97
.153   Stephen Curry   GS  .613   30.9   4.0   4.0    .7   3.2   .4   1.88
.152   Tobias Harris  Phl  .648   24.7  11.2   2.3    .5    .6   .5   2.16

eW/G    per36 rates    tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.148   Jayson Tatum   Bos  .572   23.5   8.9   4.5    .7   2.4  1.1   1.80
.142   Kevin Durant   Phx  .660   23.9   6.5   4.7    .8   3.0   .8   1.56
.139 Donovan Mitchell Cle- .513   21.3   4.3   6.4   1.9   3.5   .5   1.62
.137   Trae Young     Atl  .513   24.3   3.5   8.5   1.5   4.0   .6   1.72
.135   De'Aaron Fox   Sac  .518   23.1   4.9   6.4   2.2   3.8   .5   1.69

.129   James Harden   Phl  .476   18.7   6.6   9.3   1.5   3.9   .3   1.72
.126   Joel Embiid    Phl  .588   24.9  13.6   4.3   1.0   5.5  2.4   2.24
.121   Tyrese Maxey   Phl  .596   23.5   5.9   1.8   1.5   1.1   .2   1.57
.120   Ja Morant      Mem- .517   23.9   6.0   6.7   1.8   3.4   .2   1.88
.114  Michael Porter  Den  .607   17.0   9.5   1.2   1.0    .0   .6   1.55

eW/G    per36 rates    tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.111   Ru. Westbrook  LAC- .502   18.8   7.8   6.3   1.2   3.8  1.3   1.39
.111  Khris Middleton Mil- .589   23.2   6.4   5.3    .6   3.6   .0   1.57
.106   Mikal Bridges  Brk- .531   21.4   4.6   3.5    .5   2.0   .5   1.30
.101  Dejounte Murray Atl- .535   19.2   6.9   5.7   1.8   2.0   .2   1.53
.100   Jaylen Brown   Bos  .608   25.1   4.9   2.7   1.2   3.6   .5   1.27

.099   Bam Adebayo    Mia  .494   17.7  10.9   4.8   1.9   4.1   .7   1.53
.097   RJ Barrett      NY  .530   20.5   5.2   3.4   1.4   1.8   .2   1.38
.095   Mi. Robinson    NY  .597   11.5  14.5   1.4   1.5    .9  2.9   1.62
.094   Rudy Gobert    Min- .630   14.9  12.7   1.9    .4   1.7  1.0   1.30
.092 Domantas Sabonis Sac- .509   15.3  11.0   4.4   1.6   3.9   .9   1.27

Kawhi, Giannis, and others who missed games have those zeroes averaged in.

Same list with other stats:

Code: Select all

. 1st round     tm   G  mpg   PER   WS/48   BPM   e484
Jimmy Butler   Mia   5   37   33.5   .295  10.2   3.26
Nikola Jokić   Den   5   37   28.1   .275  11.5   3.21
Ant. Edwards   Min   5   40   27.3   .190  10.4   2.51
Devin Booker   Phx   5   43   30.4   .274  10.7   2.24
Jamal Murray   Den   5   38   22.0   .188   5.3   2.28

Anthony Davis  LAL   6   36   23.1   .197   5.6   2.37
LeBron James   LAL   6   37   20.1   .158   5.6   2.10
Jalen Brunson  NYK   5   38   20.1   .186   6.6   1.97
Stephen Curry  GSW   7   39   21.3   .153   6.1   1.88
Tobias Harris  Phl   4   34   24.7   .294   7.6   2.16

. 1st round     tm   G  mpg   PER   WS/48   BPM   e484
Jayson Tatum   Bos   6   40   20.9   .140   3.1   1.80
Kevin Durant   Phx   5   44   22.1   .196   5.3   1.56
Do. Mitchell   Cle   5   41   15.8   .059   4.8   1.62
Trae Young     Atl   6   38   20.9   .066   3.6   1.72
De'Aaron Fox   Sac   7   39   18.9   .093   5.0   1.69

James Harden   Phl   4   36   14.7   .119   1.7   1.72
Joel Embiid    Phl   4   27   19.9   .164   1.9   2.24
Ja Morant      Mem   6   31   18.5   .083   6.3   1.88
Tyrese Maxey   Phl   4   37   19.0   .222   4.7   1.57
Michael Porter Den   5   36   16.6   .182   2.9   1.55

. 1st round     tm   G  mpg   PER   WS/48   BPM   e484
Khr. Middleton Mil   5   35   19.1   .106   1.6   1.57
Ru. Westbrook  LAC   5   38   17.6   .021   2.1   1.39
Mikal Bridges  Brk   4   39   16.4   .028   1.4   1.30
Bam Adebayo    Mia   5   32   16.2   .041  -2.2   1.53
Dej. Murray    Atl   6   32   20.4   .099   5.1   1.53

Jaylen Brown   Bos   6   38   17.8   .070  -0.7   1.27
RJ Barrett     NYK   5   34   16.1   .171   3.5   1.38
Rudy Gobert    Min   5   35   18.1   .145   0.3   1.30
Mi. Robinson   NYK   5   28   22.4   .248   5.9   1.62
Dom. Sabonis   Sac   7   35   16.0   .064   0.7   1.27

[Crow]

Correlation of various metrics to player minutes: Might not be strong after first round but I'd guess correlation will be higher after second round and beyond winners.

I'd have concern about the Celtics absolute bottom number. Strong benches will help produce a low number but a low number is still sub-optimal and probably points to issues with one or more starters.




150 playing to your minutes cutoff is 9.4 per team. 8.9 over 60 minutes total, so it is on average basically a 9 man playoff rotation by a low standard. 6.7 over 100 minutes are the main force. 4.2 over 150.

Average first round games per series was 5.4, so it turns my cutoffs into fairly close to 12, 20 and 30 minutes per game.