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2023 Playoffs, East Conf. round 2
Posted: Mon May 01, 2023 9:44 am
by Mike G
Heat 1 - 0 Knicks
108 - 101
Pyth wins .71 - .29 , eWins .60 - .40
Code: Select all
eWin per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.16 Jimmy Butler Mia 44 .581 22.6 8.9 3.8 1.7 1.9 .0 1.72
.15 Kyle Lowry Mia 30 .600 23.8 5.6 7.8 1.2 2.6 4.6 2.33
.14 RJ Barrett NY 39 .542 24.3 8.9 5.7 .9 3.8 .0 1.73
.10 Gabe Vincent Mia 33 .571 23.2 2.2 6.3 1.1 1.3 .0 1.50
.09 Jalen Brunson NY 40 .500 21.4 4.8 5.6 .9 4.6 .0 1.11
.09 Kevin Love Mia 16 .600 22.7 11.0 10.2 .0 .0 .0 2.56
.08 Obi Toppin NY 32 .600 18.0 9.6 .0 1.1 .0 .0 1.17
.06 Bam Adebayo Mia 37 .571 16.2 7.7 2.2 .0 2.2 .0 .79
.06 Mi. Robinson NY 34 .700 8.4 15.8 .0 .0 2.2 2.2 .79
.05 Max Strus Mia 23 .667 14.1 3.1 5.4 1.6 .0 .0 .99
eWin per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.03 Caleb Martin Mia 31 .450 8.2 5.4 1.3 2.3 1.3 1.1 .42
.02 Josh Hart NY 43 .417 6.1 7.1 2.9 .0 .9 .9 .23
.02 Is. Hartenstein NY 14 1.00 6.6 4.8 2.0 2.2 .0 2.3 .55
-.01 Im. Quickley NY 28 .450 8.4 2.6 1.1 1.2 1.2 .0 -.10
shooting : Mia .543 - .526 NYK
rebounds: NYK 48 - 39 Mia
turnovers: Mia 9 - 13 NYK
https://www.basketball-reference.com/pl ... _2023.html
Extracted from previous rates:
Code: Select all
. Heat PER WS/48 BPM e480 . Knicks PER WS/48 BPM e480
Butler 21.5 .227 2.9 1.72 Hart 7.7 .031 -4.2 .23
Adebayo 13.6 .083 -3.8 .79 Brunson 15.0 -.025 -1.4 1.11
Vincent 17.5 .158 4.2 1.50 Barrett 20.4 .091 4.0 1.73
Martin 11.3 .054 -0.9 .42 Robinson 13.7 .094 -0.8 .79
Lowry 24.2 .226 12.8 2.33 Toppin 17.6 .194 4.6 1.17
Strus 16.1 .217 4.8 .99 Quickley 7.1 .007 -4.7 -.10
Love 24.7 .297 13.3 2.56 Hartenstein 19.3 .194 7.4 .55
Robinson -12.8 -.244 -24.3 -.74 Grimes 8.4 .095 -0.1 -.13
Zeller 10.2 .132 -0.8 -.03
Highsmith 7.5 .012 -7.2 -.27
. totals 16.0 .145 1.95 1.21 . totals 13.7 .072 0.06 .79
Re: 2023 Playoffs, East Conf. round 2
Posted: Tue May 02, 2023 10:45 am
by Mike G
Sixers 1 - 0 Celtics
119 - 115
Pyth wins .61 - .39 , eWins .56 - .44
Code: Select all
eWin per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.24 Jayson Tatum Bos 43 .672 29.7 10.8 3.5 .9 .9 .9 2.66
.20 James Harden Phl 40 .703 39.2 1.4 4.7 1.8 3.7 .0 2.43
.13 Paul Reed Phl 38 .833 9.6 19.5 1.6 1.0 .0 1.0 1.70
.11 Tyrese Maxey Phl 36 .500 21.2 1.6 1.7 4.1 .0 .0 1.49
.10 Jaylen Brown Bos 41 .958 21.8 6.2 2.9 .9 3.6 .0 1.12
.09 Tobias Harris Phl 41 .563 13.3 6.9 2.3 .9 .0 .9 1.03
.07 De'An. Melton Phl 24 .850 24.3 2.2 2.4 .0 1.9 2.8 1.41
.06 Al Horford Bos 30 .688 12.1 8.4 3.0 .0 2.4 3.7 1.01
.05 Malcolm Brogdon Bos 34 .625 17.6 3.6 2.5 .0 1.0 .0 .76
.04 Robert Williams Bos 20 1.00 10.2 13.4 .0 .0 .0 .0 .85
eWin per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
-.01 Marcus Smart Bos 35 .667 11.5 3.6 6.0 .0 6.3 .0 -.10
-.02 Derrick White Bos 26 .333 3.7 3.2 3.4 1.4 2.8 .0 -.36
-.02 P.J. Tucker Phl 37 - - .0 7.7 .8 2.0 1.3 .0 -.27
shooting : Bos .685 - .626 Phl
rebounds: Bos 38 - 28 Phl
turnovers:
Phl 8 - 16 Bos
Re: 2023 Playoffs, East Conf. round 2
Posted: Wed May 03, 2023 11:47 am
by Mike G
Heat
1 - 1 Knicks
avg score 106.5 - 106.0
Pyth wins 1.03 - .97 , eWins 1.02 - .98
Code: Select all
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.27 Jalen Brunson NY 40 .598 26.4 4.7 4.0 1.0 2.9 .0 1.65
.24 RJ Barrett NY 39 .575 24.1 5.8 4.5 .4 3.4 .0 1.45
.19 Julius Randle NY 19 .595 25.5 12.0 7.4 .0 3.0 .0 2.40
.18 Gabe Vincent Mia 37 .569 19.6 2.0 5.1 .6 .6 .0 1.20
.17 Kyle Lowry Mia 31 .500 12.4 5.2 7.1 1.4 2.0 2.8 1.37
.16 Jimmy Butler Mia 22 .581 21.3 9.3 3.4 2.1 1.9 .0 1.77
.16 Bam Adebayo Mia 38 .564 14.9 7.9 4.1 .0 1.7 .5 1.03
.16 Josh Hart NY 38 .453 9.3 9.5 6.0 .4 1.0 .5 1.02
.14 Caleb Martin Mia 35 .596 15.1 6.9 1.1 1.3 .6 .5 .97
.12 Max Strus Mia 24 .694 20.6 2.3 3.2 1.0 .0 .0 1.16
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.09 Kevin Love Mia 20 .459 12.8 10.3 4.8 .0 2.1 .0 1.04
.07 Mi. Robinson NY 28 .591 8.5 13.1 .0 .0 1.4 1.3 .60
.05 Obi Toppin NY 21 .529 12.5 7.8 .0 .6 .0 .0 .60
.04 Is. Hartenstein NY 20 .714 4.7 9.5 1.6 1.3 .0 1.7 .54
.02 Ha. Highsmith Mia 10 .636 12.3 4.9 3.3 .0 1.8 .0 .41
-.01 Cody Zeller Mia 8 .750 7.5 4.0 .0 2.5 2.3 .0 -.17
-.02 Im. Quickley NY 19 .441 10.5 2.8 .9 .7 2.8 .0 -.22
-.02 Duncan Robinson Mia 17 .321 4.8 1.0 3.1 .0 .0 .0 -.31
-.03 Quentin Grimes NY 19 .467 4.6 2.8 .0 .7 .0 .9 -.33
shooting : Mia .552 - .549 NYK
rebounds: NYK 49.0 - 36.5 Mia
turnovers: Mia 8.0 - 12.0 NYK
Code: Select all
. Heat PER WS/48 BPM e480 . Knicks PER WS/48 BPM e480
Adebayo 15.0 .116 -1.0 1.03 Brunson 21.1 .149 4.9 1.65
Vincent 15.9 .125 2.0 1.20 Barrett 17.7 .095 2.2 1.45
Martin 16.2 .131 1.9 .97 Hart 13.0 .103 0.6 1.02
Lowry 16.0 .101 4.3 1.37 Robinson 12.1 .098 -3.4 .60
Strus 17.0 .188 3.5 1.16 Toppin 11.2 .097 -0.7 .60
Butler 23.0 .180 2.9 1.77 H'stein 15.7 .206 1.9 .54
Love 11.7 .035 -1.6 1.04 Randle 24.4 .179 7.8 2.40
Robinson 1.0 -.075 -10.2 -.31 Quickley 3.9 -.108 -10.2 -.22
H'smith 12.7 .110 -0.4 .41 Grimes 5.0 .063 -5.3 -.33
Zeller 6.0 .039 -6.5 -.17
.totals 14.7 .108 0.53 1.02 . totals 14.6 .104 0.40 .98
Re: 2023 Playoffs, East Conf. round 2
Posted: Thu May 04, 2023 11:26 am
by Mike G
Celtics 1 - 1 Sixers
avg score 118.0 - 103.0
Pyth wins 1.72 - .28 , eWins 1.36 - .64
Code: Select all
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.34 Jayson Tatum Bos 32 .597 27.2 12.0 4.4 .6 1.8 1.2 2.61
.32 Jaylen Brown Bos 36 .774 30.2 5.2 3.9 1.7 2.7 .0 2.15
.27 James Harden Phl 36 .559 24.7 6.5 4.1 .9 1.9 .0 1.80
.22 Malcolm Brogdon Bos 29 .652 25.2 6.1 2.8 .0 .6 .6 1.80
.17 Paul Reed Phl 27 .800 11.2 15.9 2.1 .6 .8 1.3 1.48
.13 Tobias Harris Phl 37 .607 13.1 6.9 1.2 .5 .0 .5 .82
.12 Al Horford Bos 27 .444 8.4 10.2 3.3 .8 1.4 3.4 1.11
.12 Tyrese Maxey Phl 33 .488 15.8 2.6 2.2 2.1 .7 .6 .86
.11 Robert Williams Bos 21 1.00 8.7 12.8 3.1 .0 .0 2.4 1.31
.10 Marcus Smart Bos 31 .587 16.4 5.4 5.1 .0 4.3 .6 .76
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.06 Grant Williams Bos 17 .750 12.6 4.4 3.7 1.1 .0 .0 .84
.05 Joel Embiid Phl 13 .577 19.1 4.9 .0 .0 5.2 7.0 .99
.05 De'An. Melton Phl 21 .633 13.6 2.7 2.5 .7 1.9 1.6 .53
.02 Derrick White Bos 28 .594 11.6 2.2 2.5 .7 1.4 .0 .21
-.03 P.J. Tucker Phl 29 .833 3.2 6.6 .5 1.2 1.6 .6 -.28
-.04 Jalen McDaniels Phl 12 .250 1.6 3.1 .0 .0 .0 .0 -.74
-.05 Georges Niang Phl 14 .429 4.6 1.3 .9 .0 2.9 .0 -.91
shooting : Bos .641 - .555 Phl
rebounds: Bos 42.0 - 34.5 Phl
turnovers: Phl 10.5 - 11.5 Bos
Code: Select all
. Sixers PER WS/48 BPM e480 . Celtics PER WS/48 BPM e480
Harris 17.9 .079 1.4 .82 Brown 25.7 .269 8.4 2.15
Harden 24.6 .095 4.1 1.80 Tatum 26.1 .264 4.1 2.61
Maxey 16.1 -.021 -2.4 .86 Smart 12.9 .062 -5.0 .76
Tucker 5.5 -.014 -3.0 -.28 Brogdon 24.0 .236 5.2 1.80
Reed 22.1 .241 4.4 1.48 White 10.9 .113 -2.8 .21
Melton 16.3 .025 3.5 .53 Horford 14.6 .100 1.3 1.11
Niang -.5 -.191 -10.2 -.91 R Williams 20.2 .278 7.1 1.31
Embiid 18.4 -.135 0.9 .99 G Williams 17.0 .229 8.4 .84
McDaniels -1.3 -.215 -11.6 -.74 Hauser 5.7 -.019 -4.1 -.59
Springer 3.7 -.033 -9.0 -.83 Pritchard 30.1 .323 16.7 2.20
Milton 33.5 .393 19.1 1.76
House -2.7 -.292 -14.7 -.35
. totals 14.6 .023 -0.47 .64 . totals 19.3 .189 3.32 1.36
Re: 2023 Playoffs, East Conf. round 2
Posted: Sat May 06, 2023 11:09 am
by Mike G
Celtics 2 - 1 Sixers
avg score 116.7 - 102.7
Pyth wins 2.54 - .46 , eWins 2.02 - .98
Code: Select all
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.53 Jayson Tatum Bos 35 .598 26.9 10.8 4.6 1.1 2.5 1.0 2.41
.45 Jaylen Brown Bos 35 .676 28.2 6.1 4.6 1.4 3.2 .3 2.02
.34 James Harden Phl 38 .525 20.4 6.0 6.0 .9 3.0 .0 1.43
.30 Malcolm Brogdon Bos 28 .617 23.5 5.3 4.5 .0 .8 .4 1.70
.26 Joel Embiid Phl 22 .592 23.4 9.6 1.5 .5 3.9 5.0 1.88
.25 Al Horford Bos 28 .635 13.6 9.5 3.0 1.3 .9 2.1 1.42
.17 Marcus Smart Bos 32 .538 16.0 4.6 5.0 1.2 3.5 .4 .86
.15 Tyrese Maxey Phl 35 .456 12.4 3.7 2.1 1.3 .4 1.0 .66
.14 Robert Williams Bos 19 1.00 8.4 11.8 2.3 .6 .0 3.3 1.22
.13 De'A. Melton Phl 24 .635 13.6 5.5 2.0 2.2 1.6 1.4 .90
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.12 Paul Reed Phl 21 .800 8.5 12.6 1.9 .5 .6 1.1 .92
.11 Tobias Harris Phl 33 .586 11.7 6.4 1.3 .4 .9 .7 .53
.08 Derrick White Bos 30 .604 12.4 4.1 2.5 .4 1.3 .0 .41
.03 Grant Williams Bos 19 .545 5.4 5.0 2.9 .6 .0 1.1 .24
-.02 P.J. Tucker Phl 27 1.00 6.8 4.7 1.2 1.3 2.0 .4 -.12
-.03 Jalen McDaniels Phl 12 .375 2.9 4.6 .7 .0 .0 .0 -.42
-.05 Georges Niang Phl 15 .571 7.9 .7 .6 .0 1.6 .0 -.53
shooting :
Bos .622 - .556 Phl
rebounds:
Bos 43.0 - 37.0 Phl
turnovers: 11.7 - 11.7
Code: Select all
. Sixers PER WS/48 BPM e480 . Celtics PER WS/48 BPM e480
Harden 18.8 .033 0.6 1.43 Brown 23.1 .218 5.6 2.02
Maxey 12.1 -.044 -3.7 .66 Tatum 24.2 .218 4.7 2.41
Harris 13.8 .025 -1.4 .53 Smart 12.5 .059 -3.7 .86
Tucker 8.2 .030 -0.3 -.12 White 11.7 .117 -1.7 .41
Melton 18.7 .082 6.4 .90 Brogdon 22.3 .218 5.3 1.70
Embiid 26.0 .098 5.3 1.88 Horford 19.0 .206 6.9 1.42
Reed 19.1 .197 2.9 .92 R Williams 21.2 .305 7.5 1.22
Niang 5.9 -.071 -5.6 -.53 G Williams 10.1 .127 2.3 .24
McDaniels 4.1 -.095 -6.5 -.42
. totals 14.4 .031 -0.19 .66 . totals 18.3 .179 3.23 1.35
Re: 2023 Playoffs, East Conf. round 2
Posted: Sun May 07, 2023 11:27 am
by Mike G
Heat 2 - 1 Knicks
avg score 106.0 - 99.3
Pyth wins 2.11 - .89 , eWins 1.81 - 1.19
Code: Select all
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.42 Jalen Brunson NY 39 .543 23.6 4.5 5.0 .8 1.9 .0 1.73
.36 Jimmy Butler Mia 26 .552 26.3 7.4 3.5 1.1 2.0 .9 2.21
.33 Kyle Lowry Mia 29 .543 16.3 5.2 7.1 1.0 1.4 2.4 1.82
.31 Bam Adebayo Mia 37 .552 16.6 9.9 2.9 .0 1.5 .7 1.34
.27 RJ Barrett NY 34 .525 22.4 4.8 3.7 .3 2.9 .0 1.28
.27 Max Strus Mia 26 .667 24.7 3.1 2.1 1.1 .0 .5 1.65
.23 Josh Hart NY 38 .476 10.9 8.9 4.6 .5 1.3 .3 .99
.20 Gabe Vincent Mia 35 .505 15.7 1.5 5.4 1.3 1.2 .0 .91
.18 Julius Randle NY 25 .455 14.4 11.2 4.6 .0 3.5 .0 1.12
.15 Kevin Love Mia 21 .429 10.4 12.7 5.8 .0 2.6 .0 1.14
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.14 Caleb Martin Mia 31 .548 13.3 7.5 .9 .9 1.3 .4 .72
.07 Ha. Highsmith Mia 11 .632 14.9 10.2 2.3 .0 1.2 .0 1.07
.05 Obi Toppin NY 20 .500 12.2 6.5 .6 1.0 1.9 .6 .42
.05 Mi. Robinson NY 23 .577 8.4 11.6 .0 .0 1.7 1.1 .35
.02 Cody Zeller Mia 9 .563 11.9 10.3 1.3 1.4 4.0 .0 .41
.02 Is. Hartenstein NY 22 .714 3.3 6.6 1.5 .9 .0 2.1 .16
.00 Im. Quickley NY 19 .450 13.3 2.2 .6 1.0 2.5 .0 .01
-.03 Duncan Robinson Mia 15 .317 5.6 1.6 3.2 .0 .8 .0 -.34
-.03 Quentin Grimes NY 19 .500 7.6 2.1 .0 1.0 .6 .6 -.28
shooting : Mia .533 - .505 NYK
rebounds: NYK 48.7 - 41.0 Mia
turnovers: Mia 10.0 - 12.3 NYK
Code: Select all
. Heat PER WS/48 BPM e480 . Knicks PER WS/48 BPM e480
Adebayo 15.5 .150 0.0 1.34 Brunson 19.8 .150 5.0 1.73
Vincent 11.7 .097 0.4 .91 Hart 12.8 .102 1.2 .99
Martin 12.0 .119 -0.9 .72 Barrett 14.3 .052 1.1 1.28
Lowry 18.2 .178 7.4 1.82 Randle 11.9 -.005 -0.8 1.12
Butler 23.8 .218 6.5 2.21 Robinson 11.1 .084 -4.8 .35
Strus 18.2 .226 6.5 1.65 Hartenstein 11.6 .159 0.6 .16
Love 10.2 .077 -0.8 1.14 Toppin 8.6 .029 -1.6 .42
Robinson .1 -.053 -9.7 -.34 Grimes 6.5 .063 -3.3 -.28
Highsmith 15.7 .197 2.8 1.07 Quickley 6.6 -.062 -4.9 .01
Zeller 5.7 .011 -5.8 .41
. totals 14.1 .133 1.39 1.20 . totals 12.3 .072 -0.19 .80
Re: 2023 Playoffs, East Conf. round 2
Posted: Mon May 08, 2023 12:20 pm
by Mike G
Celtics
2 - 2 Sixers
avg score 116.3 - 106.0
Pyth wins 3.09 - .91 , eWins 2.55 - 1.45
Code: Select all
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e493
.73 Jayson Tatum Bos 38 .574 23.8 12.1 4.6 1.1 2.2 1.7 2.36
.65 James Harden Phl 40 .608 25.1 6.4 6.2 1.4 2.5 .2 2.01
.53 Jaylen Brown Bos 38 .676 25.7 5.1 4.5 1.1 2.5 .2 1.73
.44 Joel Embiid Phl 28 .552 23.8 10.6 2.1 .6 3.1 2.9 1.94
.37 Malcolm Brogdon Bos 30 .631 22.4 6.2 3.8 .0 1.2 .3 1.51
.35 Al Horford Bos 31 .597 11.9 8.7 3.3 1.7 .6 3.0 1.41
.25 Marcus Smart Bos 35 .558 16.8 4.0 5.3 .9 3.2 .3 .90
.18 Tyrese Maxey Phl 38 .446 11.1 4.9 1.8 1.3 .6 1.0 .58
.15 Robert Williams Bos 18 .889 8.6 10.1 2.2 .5 .5 3.1 1.02
.13 Paul Reed Phl 17 .750 8.4 13.2 1.7 .4 .6 .9 .92
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e493
.10 Tobias Harris Phl 36 .543 9.9 6.5 1.4 .4 1.2 .5 .34
.09 De'An. Melton Phl 24 .589 10.0 5.0 2.2 1.8 1.6 1.0 .48
.08 Derrick White Bos 30 .587 12.0 3.6 1.8 .4 .9 .3 .34
.02 Grant Williams Bos 17 .538 5.3 4.6 2.4 .5 .5 1.4 .12
-.03 Jalen McDaniels Phl 9 .375 3.0 4.8 .8 .0 .0 .0 -.37
-.04 P.J. Tucker Phl 29 .800 6.1 4.6 1.1 .8 1.5 .3 -.19
-.05 Georges Niang Phl 16 .625 8.6 .5 .4 .0 1.1 .5 -.41
shooting : Bos .613 - .559 Phl
rebounds: Bos 43.3 - 38.8 Phl
turnovers: Phl 11.0 - 11.3 Bos
Code: Select all
. Sixers PER WS/48 BPM e480 . Celtics PER WS/48 BPM e480
Harden 26.7 .180 8.7 2.01 Tatum 24.2 .204 5.1 2.36
Maxey 12.3 -.033 -3.2 .58 Brown 22.1 .193 4.8 1.73
Harris 11.3 .005 -3.4 .34 Smart 13.1 .064 -3.1 .90
Tucker 7.8 .035 -1.4 -.19 Horford 19.2 .193 7.6 1.41
Embiid 25.2 .107 4.3 1.94 Brogdon 20.8 .194 4.2 1.51
Melton 13.6 .037 2.0 .48 White 12.0 .093 -2.2 .34
Reed 19.1 .180 2.5 .92 R Williams 19.6 .254 5.3 1.02
Niang 7.9 -.013 -3.5 -.41 G Williams 9.3 .093 0.5 .12
McDaniels 4.1 -.113 -6.5 -.37
. totals 15.2 .049 0.41 .73 . totals 18.1 .160 2.86 1.28
Re: 2023 Playoffs, East Conf. round 2
Posted: Tue May 09, 2023 12:18 pm
by Mike G
Heat 3 - 1 Knicks
avg score 106.8 - 99.8
Pyth wins 2.85 - 1.15 , eWins 2.42 - 1.58
Code: Select all
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.64 Jalen Brunson NY 41 .560 24.9 4.3 6.0 .8 1.6 .0 1.91
.62 Jimmy Butler Mia 30 .576 27.6 6.9 5.5 1.3 2.3 1.2 2.46
.46 Bam Adebayo Mia 37 .563 18.9 10.9 2.6 .3 2.2 .5 1.48
.46 Kyle Lowry Mia 28 .602 19.2 5.7 6.6 1.0 1.0 1.8 1.96
.41 RJ Barrett NY 35 .561 24.4 4.8 3.5 .5 3.0 .0 1.42
.31 Max Strus Mia 29 .652 20.9 4.1 2.0 1.0 .7 .6 1.29
.25 Julius Randle NY 29 .509 16.9 10.5 3.9 .0 4.3 .0 1.04
.19 Kevin Love Mia 22 .475 11.2 11.5 5.0 .0 1.9 .0 1.09
.19 Gabe Vincent Mia 32 .467 12.7 1.3 5.9 1.6 1.0 .0 .74
.18 Caleb Martin Mia 30 .564 13.0 7.4 1.3 .7 1.0 .6 .75
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.17 Josh Hart NY 34 .453 9.4 8.3 3.8 .5 1.7 .3 .61
.07 Ha. Highsmith Mia 10 .667 14.0 9.9 1.8 .0 .9 .0 .92
.07 Mi. Robinson NY 26 .553 7.3 10.5 .3 .3 1.9 1.4 .32
.05 Obi Toppin NY 16 .500 11.9 6.5 .5 1.0 1.7 .5 .40
.03 Is. Hartenstein NY 20 .636 3.0 6.7 1.2 .8 .0 2.5 .18
-.00 Im. Quickley NY 14 .450 12.6 2.2 .6 1.1 2.4 .0 -.02
-.00 Cody Zeller Mia 9 .500 9.6 8.6 .9 1.0 3.9 .0 -.05
-.04 Quentin Grimes NY 25 .522 7.1 3.0 .7 1.3 1.1 .3 -.18
-.06 Duncan Robinson Mia 14 .281 4.8 1.9 3.1 .0 1.9 .0 -.50
shooting : Mia .541 - .521 NYK
rebounds: NYK 45.3 - 41.8 Mia
turnovers: Mia 10.8 - 13.5 NYK
Code: Select all
. Heat PER WS/48 BPM e480 . Knicks PER WS/48 BPM e480
Adebayo 16.0 .140 -0.3 1.48 Brunson 21.4 .182 6.2 1.91
Vincent 10.2 .089 -0.4 .74 Barrett 16.1 .069 2.6 1.42
Butler 24.9 .254 8.7 2.46 Hart 9.2 .040 -2.1 .61
Martin 13.1 .141 0.5 .75 Randle 11.4 -.013 -1.9 1.04
Strus 16.3 .189 4.8 1.29 Robinson 10.7 .067 -3.4 .32
Lowry 20.8 .246 9.2 1.96 Grimes 6.5 .058 -2.1 -.18
Love 10.9 .108 0.3 1.09 Hartenstein 12.0 .154 1.0 .18
Robinson -3.6 -.147 -13.7 -.50 Toppin 9.3 .014 -1.9 .40
Highsmith 16.1 .213 2.6 .92 Quickley 6.3 -.093 -4.9 -.02
Zeller 1.6 -.051 -10.5 -.05
. totals 14.4 .140 1.58 1.21 . totals 12.3 .064 -0.17 .79
Re: 2023 Playoffs, East Conf. round 2
Posted: Wed May 10, 2023 10:04 am
by Mike G
Sixers 3 - 2 Celtics
avg score: Bos 113.6 - 107.8 Phl
Pyth wins 3.34 - 1.66 , eWins 2.92 - 2.08
Code: Select all
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e490
.96 Jayson Tatum Bos 38 .564 25.2 11.3 4.6 1.3 2.2 1.3 2.44
.84 James Harden Phl 40 .614 24.2 6.9 6.9 1.5 2.5 .2 2.07
.64 Joel Embiid Phl 30 .560 26.3 10.0 2.3 .4 3.7 3.2 2.10
.63 Jaylen Brown Bos 37 .659 25.9 5.2 4.0 .9 2.6 .2 1.68
.38 Malcolm Brogdon Bos 29 .600 19.0 5.6 4.0 .0 .9 .2 1.26
.35 Al Horford Bos 30 .500 8.7 8.2 3.7 2.0 .7 2.7 1.17
.32 Tyrese Maxey Phl 39 .495 13.8 5.4 2.0 1.0 .7 .8 .81
.30 Marcus Smart Bos 34 .562 16.3 3.8 5.1 .7 3.0 .2 .84
.20 Tobias Harris Phl 35 .579 11.6 8.0 1.4 .4 1.3 .4 .57
.13 Paul Reed Phl 15 .769 8.9 11.8 1.6 .7 .5 .8 .88
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e490
.13 Robert Williams Bos 18 .833 8.2 8.4 1.8 .4 .4 2.4 .73
.11 De'An. Melton Phl 24 .578 8.9 5.2 2.0 1.7 1.4 1.1 .43
.10 Payton Pritchard Bos 4 .941 31.7 4.2 5.3 1.5 2.7 .0 2.28
.06 Derrick White Bos 31 .567 10.2 4.0 1.4 .3 .7 .2 .20
.03 Danuel House Phl 5 .520 12.1 7.9 1.1 .0 .0 .0 .62
-.01 Grant Williams Bos 15 .500 4.3 3.8 2.4 .5 .4 1.2 -.05
-.02 Sam Hauser Bos 3 .300 2.4 .0 1.6 1.8 .0 .0 -.50
-.03 Jalen McDaniels Phl 7 .375 2.9 4.7 .8 .0 .0 .0 -.38
-.06 P.J. Tucker Phl 30 .697 5.0 5.5 1.1 .6 1.2 .2 -.19
-.09 Georges Niang Phl 15 .595 6.7 .4 .4 .0 1.0 .4 -.56
shooting : Bos .592 - .572 Phl
rebounds: Bos 41.8 - 40.8 Phl
turnovers: Bos 10.6 - 11.4 Phl
Code: Select all
. Sixers PER WS/48 BPM e480 . Celts PER WS/48 BPM e480
Harden 26.2 .207 8.8 2.07 Tatum 25.1 .194 6.7 2.44
Maxey 14.6 .031 -1.1 .81 Brown 20.7 .150 4.0 1.68
Harris 13.0 .048 -2.3 .57 Smart 13.2 .062 -2.6 .84
Embiid 26.1 .135 4.7 2.10 White 10.8 .075 -3.1 .20
Tucker 6.7 .039 -1.8 -.19 Horford 16.2 .130 5.3 1.17
Melton 13.3 .061 2.1 .43 Brogdon 18.8 .153 3.0 1.26
Niang 5.9 -.016 -4.5 -.56 R Williams 17.4 .210 3.1 .73
Reed 19.2 .195 2.8 .88 G Williams 7.7 .072 -0.8 -.05
McDaniels 4.1 -.113 -6.5 -.38 Pritchard 29.9 .304 17.8 2.28
House 15.2 .077 -2.4 .62 Hauser 3.6 -.032 -5.9 -.50
. totals 15.8 .080 0.98 .83 . totals 17.1 .132 2.33 1.17
Re: 2023 Playoffs, East Conf. round 2
Posted: Thu May 11, 2023 12:00 pm
by Mike G
Heat
3 - 2 Knicks
avg score 106.0 - 102.2
Pyth wins 3.10 - 1.90 , eWins 2.80 - 2.20
Code: Select all
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.91 Jalen Brunson NY 42 .587 27.1 4.8 6.0 .7 1.5 .0 2.08
.79 Jimmy Butler Mia 33 .569 24.6 6.8 6.0 1.9 1.9 1.3 2.30
.56 Bam Adebayo Mia 38 .586 19.2 10.4 2.4 .4 2.1 .6 1.42
.53 RJ Barrett NY 35 .573 25.4 5.2 3.3 .4 3.3 .2 1.45
.44 Kyle Lowry Mia 29 .559 16.0 4.7 6.2 1.2 1.3 1.7 1.46
.39 Julius Randle NY 30 .549 20.0 9.3 4.3 .2 4.3 .0 1.25
.35 Max Strus Mia 28 .649 20.8 4.3 1.6 .8 .6 .5 1.19
.23 Caleb Martin Mia 29 .591 13.9 6.8 1.8 .7 1.3 .5 .76
.19 Kevin Love Mia 20 .407 9.2 11.8 4.9 .0 2.0 .0 .87
.18 Gabe Vincent Mia 30 .440 11.4 2.1 5.9 1.5 1.6 .0 .59
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.16 Josh Hart NY 29 .455 9.3 8.3 3.9 .5 2.1 .2 .52
.13 Mi. Robinson NY 26 .518 7.8 11.6 .9 .8 2.1 1.2 .50
.07 Is. Hartenstein NY 20 .733 4.3 7.2 1.3 .9 .0 2.3 .32
.06 Ha. Highsmith Mia 8 .667 12.8 9.3 1.6 .0 .8 .0 .71
.05 Obi Toppin NY 15 .483 10.1 8.0 .4 .8 1.8 .4 .33
.01 Cody Zeller Mia 9 .533 11.7 8.3 1.5 .7 3.8 .0 .14
.01 Duncan Robinson Mia 16 .398 9.7 1.8 2.6 .9 1.3 .0 .04
-.00 Im. Quickley NY 11 .450 12.4 2.2 .6 1.1 2.4 .0 -.02
-.03 Quentin Grimes NY 30 .516 6.8 3.0 1.6 1.4 1.8 .7 -.10
shooting : .539 - .539
rebounds: NYK 46.2 - 40.2 Mia
turnovers:
Mia 11.0 - 14.6 NYK
Code: Select all
. Heat PER WS/48 BPM e480 . Knicks PER WS/48 BPM e480
Adebayo 16.6 .144 -0.2 1.42 Brunson 23.3 .233 7.0 2.08
Butler 24.8 .250 8.9 2.30 Barrett 16.1 .085 1.9 1.45
Vincent 8.4 .030 -2.5 .59 Randle 13.7 .043 0.2 1.25
Martin 13.3 .129 0.7 .76 Grimes 6.2 .044 -1.7 -.10
Lowry 17.5 .177 6.3 1.46 Hart 8.2 .028 -3.1 .52
Strus 16.0 .166 4.2 1.19 Robinson 11.9 .080 -2.9 .50
Love 8.1 .033 -3.0 .87 Hartenstein 13.6 .188 2.0 .32
Robinson 4.1 -.058 -6.5 .04 Toppin 8.4 .006 -2.9 .33
Zeller 3.9 -.029 -9.5 .14 Quickley 6.0 -.090 -4.9 -.02
Highsmith 14.9 .192 1.4 .71
. totals 14.2 .120 1.19 1.12 . totals 13.1 .087 0.27 .88
Re: 2023 Playoffs, East Conf. round 2
Posted: Fri May 12, 2023 11:13 am
by Mike G
Celtics 3 - 3 Sixers
avg score 110.5 - 104.2
Pyth wins 4.12 - 1.88 , eWins 3.56 - 2.44
Code: Select all
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e488
1.09 Jayson Tatum Bos 39 .537 23.5 10.6 4.9 1.5 2.4 1.4 2.26
.91 James Harden Phl 40 .575 21.5 6.7 7.1 1.6 2.9 .3 1.83
.78 Joel Embiid Phl 32 .561 26.1 9.8 2.0 .5 3.7 3.1 2.02
.71 Jaylen Brown Bos 37 .643 24.9 5.3 4.1 .8 2.9 .2 1.55
.47 Malcolm Brogdon Bos 29 .617 20.3 5.9 3.8 .2 1.6 .2 1.30
.47 Marcus Smart Bos 36 .579 17.8 4.3 5.5 1.0 3.0 .2 1.07
.46 Tyrese Maxey Phl 39 .508 15.4 5.2 2.1 1.2 .6 .6 .97
.37 Al Horford Bos 31 .469 7.0 8.7 3.2 1.8 .6 2.3 .96
.21 Robert Williams Bos 20 .750 9.5 9.3 1.8 .3 .6 2.5 .88
.21 Tobias Harris Phl 36 .531 9.4 7.5 1.6 .6 1.0 .7 .46
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e488
.13 Paul Reed Phl 14 .714 8.4 11.3 1.5 1.0 1.0 .8 .76
.12 Derrick White Bos 29 .588 11.3 3.9 1.5 .5 .9 .4 .33
.11 Payton Pritchard Bos 4 .941 34.1 4.3 5.7 1.6 2.8 .0 2.51
.10 De'An. Melton Phl 24 .500 6.9 5.6 2.0 1.6 1.1 1.2 .33
.03 Danuel House Phl 5 .516 11.9 8.4 .9 .0 1.1 .0 .50
.00 Grant Williams Bos 13 .500 4.5 3.8 2.6 .5 .4 1.2 .00
-.02 P.J. Tucker Phl 28 .633 5.8 5.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 .2 -.06
-.03 Jalen McDaniels Phl 6 .375 3.0 4.6 .8 .0 .0 .0 -.39
-.11 Georges Niang Phl 15 .646 6.2 .4 .3 .0 .8 .3 -.61
shooting : Bos .586 - .554 Phl
rebounds: Bos 43.2 - 40.3 Phl
turnovers: Phl 11.5 - 11.8 Bos
Code: Select all
. Sixers PER WS/48 BPM e480 . Celts PER WS/48 BPM e480
Harden 23.0 .154 6.8 1.83 Tatum 22.5 .166 6.1 2.26
Maxey 16.2 .060 0.9 .97 Brown 18.6 .141 2.9 1.55
Harris 11.2 .041 -2.6 .46 Smart 14.9 .103 -0.3 1.07
Embiid 24.4 .120 4.3 2.02 Horford 13.7 .125 3.6 .96
Tucker 8.0 .056 -0.5 -.06 Brogdon 18.0 .149 3.1 1.30
Melton 11.3 .037 0.8 .33 White 11.9 .102 -1.4 .33
Niang 6.9 .019 -3.4 -.61 R Williams 17.4 .217 3.5 .88
Reed 17.2 .165 1.5 .76 G Williams 7.9 .085 -0.8 .00
McDaniels 3.8 -.095 -6.5 -.39 Pritchard 30.0 .314 17.8 2.51
House 12.4 .019 -3.2 .50 Hauser 3.6 .005 -5.9 -.44
. totals 15.2 .074 1.01 .81 . totals 16.5 .138 2.50 1.19
Re: 2023 Playoffs, East Conf. round 2
Posted: Sat May 13, 2023 11:15 am
by Mike G
Heat 4 - 2 Knicks
avg score 104.3 - 100.5
Pyth wins 3.73 - 2.27 , eWins 3.37 - 2.63
Code: Select all
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
1.22 Jalen Brunson NY 43 .620 30.8 4.6 5.6 .9 1.6 .0 2.30
.91 Jimmy Butler Mia 34 .537 23.4 7.0 5.7 1.4 1.5 1.1 2.13
.70 Bam Adebayo Mia 38 .569 19.8 10.3 2.2 .6 2.1 .6 1.48
.59 Kyle Lowry Mia 29 .584 16.7 4.8 7.1 1.6 1.3 1.6 1.63
.50 RJ Barrett NY 35 .546 22.9 4.8 3.1 .4 3.3 .2 1.15
.47 Julius Randle NY 31 .519 18.4 9.7 4.2 .2 4.1 .4 1.21
.42 Max Strus Mia 29 .620 19.4 4.9 2.0 .6 .5 .4 1.15
.26 Caleb Martin Mia 28 .583 13.7 6.9 1.7 .8 1.3 .4 .74
.21 Kevin Love Mia 20 .434 9.4 11.3 4.7 .0 1.7 .0 .85
.21 Gabe Vincent Mia 30 .440 10.9 2.5 6.1 1.4 1.8 .0 .55
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.20 Josh Hart NY 30 .471 9.8 8.2 3.5 .6 2.1 .4 .54
.14 Mi. Robinson NY 26 .500 6.6 12.1 1.0 .2 1.7 1.2 .43
.09 Obi Toppin NY 15 .500 11.4 8.0 .8 .8 1.6 .4 .50
.08 Is. Hartenstein NY 20 .684 4.1 6.4 1.1 1.1 .0 3.0 .32
.06 Ha. Highsmith Mia 7 .667 13.1 9.4 1.7 .0 .8 .0 .74
.01 Duncan Robinson Mia 16 .402 9.9 1.5 2.2 1.0 1.1 .0 .04
.00 Cody Zeller Mia 9 .533 10.0 8.3 1.9 .6 3.7 .0 .03
.00 Im. Quickley NY 10 .450 12.7 2.2 .6 1.2 2.4 .0 .01
-.07 Quentin Grimes NY 30 .473 5.8 2.9 2.0 1.2 1.6 .6 -.18
shooting : NYK .537 - .534 Mia
rebounds: NYK 45.3 - 40.2 Mia
turnovers: Mia 10.3 - 14.2 NYK
Note: the 3 competitive factors (above) should not yield a 4 ppg margin for Miami. A 5 Reb advantage for NY would about offset 4 TO edge for the Heat.
During the season, Team Rebounds -- the real kind, ball out of bounds off the opponent -- were 2.5% better than avg for the Heat, and only .956 of avg for the Knicks. The ratio is (1025/956) 1.073, and if that carries over to this series, then Heat rebound rates should be boosted by ` 7% relative to Knicks
It turns out that 87% of that adjustment is just right to make the points, Pythagorean wins, and eWins scale properly.
Check the
4 Factors box here:
https://www.basketball-reference.com/pl ... nicks.html
Even if the Heat had matched the Knicks' turnover% -- winning none of the 4 Factors -- they could have won the series. Thanks to "hustle plays" that aren't in the boxscore.
Code: Select all
. Heat PER WS/48 BPM e480 . Knicks PER WS/48 BPM e480
Adebayo 16.9 .134 0.2 1.49 Brunson 25.1 .257 8.5 2.30
Butler 23.2 .219 7.1 2.14 Barrett 13.6 .051 -0.5 1.14
Vincent 8.0 .025 -2.7 .55 Randle 13.3 .033 -0.1 1.21
Strus 15.3 .157 3.4 1.15 Grimes 5.1 .024 -2.5 -.18
Lowry 19.4 .210 8.3 1.64 Hart 8.5 .034 -2.9 .53
Martin 12.6 .121 0.3 .74 Robinson 11.4 .089 -3.0 .42
Love 8.6 .055 -2.2 .85 Hartenstein 13.6 .183 2.4 .32
Robinson 4.5 -.055 -5.6 .04 Toppin 10.2 .032 -1.0 .49
Zeller 2.8 -.032 -9.6 .04 Quickley 6.3 -.102 -4.9 .01
Highsmith 15.3 .196 1.4 .75 McBride -8.3 -.180 -10.5 -.30
. totals 14.2 .119 1.28 1.13 . totals 13.0 .086 0.31 .87
Re: 2023 Playoffs, East Conf. round 2
Posted: Mon May 15, 2023 9:44 am
by Mike G
Celtics 4 - 3 Sixers
avg score 110.7 - 101.9
Pyth wins 5.26 - 1.74 , eWins 4.38 - 2.62
Code: Select all
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e487
1.57 Jayson Tatum Bos 40 .575 28.5 11.0 4.9 1.6 2.1 1.2 2.77
.92 James Harden Phl 40 .558 19.2 6.5 6.8 1.6 3.3 .4 1.59
.89 Jaylen Brown Bos 38 .635 25.3 5.5 3.8 1.0 2.9 .4 1.64
.80 Joel Embiid Phl 33 .531 23.3 9.5 1.8 .4 3.9 2.9 1.70
.50 Tyrese Maxey Phl 39 .517 15.1 4.8 2.3 1.0 .6 .5 .88
.50 Malcolm Brogdon Bos 29 .589 19.0 5.5 3.7 .2 1.4 .2 1.18
.49 Marcus Smart Bos 36 .573 16.3 4.3 5.4 .8 2.9 .3 .95
.47 Al Horford Bos 32 .472 6.8 9.3 3.3 1.9 .5 2.5 1.05
.24 Tobias Harris Phl 37 .551 10.3 7.0 1.3 .6 1.0 .6 .45
.23 Robert Williams Bos 21 .692 9.0 9.0 1.7 .5 .7 2.1 .76
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e487
.14 Paul Reed Phl 13 .647 7.7 12.1 1.6 .9 .8 .7 .77
.11 Payton Pritchard Bos 3 .941 32.2 3.9 5.2 1.4 3.8 .0 2.15
.10 Derrick White Bos 26 .573 10.8 3.7 1.4 .5 .8 .6 .26
.09 De'An. Melton Phl 25 .468 6.5 5.7 1.8 1.3 1.2 1.4 .26
.04 Danuel House Phl 5 .488 11.4 8.6 .7 .0 .9 .0 .46
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e487
.00 P.J. Tucker Phl 27 .667 7.3 4.8 1.1 1.0 .9 .4 .01
.00 Grant Williams Bos 11 .500 4.4 4.1 2.9 .5 .4 1.2 .02
-.02 Sam Hauser Bos 3 .250 2.0 .0 1.5 1.7 .0 .0 -.57
-.03 Jalen McDaniels Phl 5 .375 2.9 4.5 .8 .0 .0 .0 -.42
-.08 Georges Niang Phl 14 .620 8.6 .4 .3 .0 .8 .7 -.40
shooting :
Bos .586 - .543 Phl
rebounds: Bos 43.1 - 39.9 Phl
turnovers: Bos 11.3 - 11.9 Phl
In the final game, Tatum added .48 eWins, vs .18 by Philly.
Code: Select all
. Sixers PER WS/48 BPM e480 . Celts PER WS/48 BPM e480
Harden 20.6 .108 5.3 1.59 Tatum 26.7 .242 9.4 2.77
Maxey 15.8 .060 0.9 .88 Brown 19.1 .152 3.4 1.64
Harris 11.7 .045 -1.9 .45 Smart 13.5 .101 -0.9 .95
Embiid 20.6 .056 1.9 1.70 Horford 14.2 .149 4.5 1.05
Tucker 9.2 .067 0.7 .01 Brogdon 16.7 .140 2.1 1.18
Melton 10.6 .017 0.1 .26 White 11.3 .108 -1.6 .26
Niang 6.8 .006 -3.2 -.40 R Williams 15.8 .201 2.4 .76
Reed 17.2 .157 1.8 .77 G Williams 8.2 .103 -0.3 .02
House 11.7 -.014 -3.9 .46 Pritchard 25.6 .240 13.7 2.15
McDaniels 3.8 -.109 -6.5 -.42 Hauser 1.4 -.008 -8.1 -.57
Springer 21.8 .167 5.4 .62 Kornet 26.6 .328 6.9 1.36
Milton 14.6 .058 3.4 .15
. totals 14.5 .057 0.72 .75 . totals 16.8 .154 2.87 1.25