Page 1 of 2
2023 Conference Finals: Den-LA & Bos-Mia
Posted: Wed May 17, 2023 11:21 am
by Mike G
Nuggets 1 - 0 Lakers
132 - 126
Pythagorean wins .65 - .35 , eWins .58 - .42
https://www.basketball-reference.com/pl ... otals.html
Code: Select all
eWin per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.28 Nikola Jokić Den 42 .810 31.0 21.2 10.0 .0 4.4 1.8 3.23
.21 Anthony Davis LA 42 .702 29.9 9.9 2.1 2.7 .0 1.8 2.43
.16 Jamal Murray Den 37 .721 28.4 5.7 3.9 2.8 1.0 1.0 2.01
.14 LeBron James LA 40 .605 19.8 12.4 6.7 .0 2.8 .9 1.70
.07 Austin Reaves LA 42 .719 17.3 2.0 5.5 .0 .0 .0 .86
.07 Michael Porter Den 35 .625 12.2 12.1 1.7 .0 1.1 2.1 1.00
.06 Kentavious C-P Den 36 .618 17.3 2.4 2.4 1.9 1.0 1.0 .79
.05 Bruce Brown Den 24 .640 18.1 6.4 2.2 .0 .0 .0 .94
.02 Rui Hachimura LA 28 .773 16.5 .0 1.0 .0 .0 1.2 .37
.00 Lonnie Walker LA 20 .500 6.0 3.7 .0 3.4 .0 .0 .09
eWin per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.00 Dennis Schröder LA 32 1.00 7.4 3.9 4.5 .0 2.3 .0 .00
-.00 Aaron Gordon Den 36 .462 8.7 3.5 2.4 .0 2.0 .0 -.06
-.01 Christian Braun Den 12 .000 .0 2.9 .0 .0 .0 2.6 -.47
-.01 Ja. Vanderbilt LA 10 ... .0 3.4 2.4 3.1 3.0 .0 -.59
-.02 D'An. Russell LA 26 .364 6.4 .0 3.3 .0 1.4 .0 -.32
-.03 Jeff Green Den 17 .500 3.8 2.2 .0 .0 1.9 .0 -.71
shooting : LA .649 - .647 Den
rebounds:
Den 47 - 30 LA
turnovers: LA 7 - 11 Den
Code: Select all
. Nuggs PER WS/48 BPM e480 . Lakers PER WS/48 BPM e480
Jokić 41.9 .434 18.7 3.23 Davis 38.7 .339 11.9 2.41
Murray 33.5 .330 11.6 2.00 Reaves 19.7 .162 3.5 .86
Gordon 8.6 -.063 -8.4 -.06 LeBron 26.2 .107 4.0 1.70
KCP 18.7 .099 0.7 .79 Schröder 7.4 -.009 -3.3 .01
Porter 17.9 .092 1.8 .99 Hachimura 18.6 .090 1.2 .37
Brown 21.7 .168 1.8 .93 Russell 1.4 -.288 -15.8 -.31
Green 1.1 -.117 -10.5 -.70 Walker 9.2 .004 -1.3 .09
Braun -4.2 -.194 -12.5 -.47 Vanderbilt -1.1 -.232 -6.5 -.58
.totals 21.3 .145 2.98 1.15 . totals 18.6 .074 0.96 .85
Re: 2023 Conference Finals: Den-LA & Bos-Mia
Posted: Thu May 18, 2023 11:41 am
by Mike G
Heat 1 - 0 Celtics
123 - 116
Pyth wins .69 - .31 , eWins .59 - .41
Code: Select all
eWin per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.22 Jimmy Butler Mia 43 .583 27.4 5.8 5.4 5.1 3.2 .0 2.47
.11 Bam Adebayo Mia 37 .645 18.9 10.8 4.5 1.0 3.7 .0 1.47
.10 Jayson Tatum Bos 41 .667 24.6 7.5 .8 .0 3.6 .9 1.23
.09 Caleb Martin Mia 29 .682 16.1 6.4 3.2 2.4 .0 1.2 1.48
.09 Marcus Smart Bos 34 .591 12.1 1.3 10.4 2.2 2.1 1.1 1.25
.08 Robert Williams Bos 26 .933 19.5 11.6 .0 .0 1.4 1.4 1.45
.07 Jaylen Brown Bos 38 .500 17.1 10.4 4.2 .0 5.8 .0 .88
.06 Kyle Lowry Mia 28 .625 16.5 5.0 3.3 1.2 1.5 1.2 1.11
.06 Gabe Vincent Mia 36 .938 16.3 4.2 1.8 1.0 1.3 1.0 .82
.04 Kevin Love Mia 16 1.00 21.0 17.7 .0 2.2 8.1 .0 1.27
eWin per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.04 Al Horford Bos 32 .438 5.5 8.1 2.0 3.4 1.1 .0 .54
.04 Derrick White Bos 20 .917 16.9 3.9 1.4 1.6 .0 .0 .86
.03 Max Strus Mia 34 .750 14.5 4.4 .0 .0 .0 .0 .43
.01 Malcolm Brogdon Bos 37 .576 14.3 2.3 .8 .0 1.0 .0 .16
shooting :
Mia .651 - .607 Bos
rebounds: Mia 35 - 34 Bos
turnovers: 15 - 15
Code: Select all
. Heat PER WS/48 BPM e480 . Celts PER WS/48 BPM e480
Butler 30.1 .275 7.6 2.47 Tatum 17.2 .073 -0.3 1.23
Adebayo 20.0 .142 0.3 1.47 Brown 7.4 -.164 -6.9 .88
Vincent 16.9 .239 4.3 .82 Brogdon 9.7 .018 -3.9 .16
Strus 13.7 .145 -0.8 .43 Smart 19.1 .174 9.2 1.25
Martin 21.5 .232 8.3 1.48 Horford 10.7 .011 2.5 .54
Lowry 17.9 .139 2.9 1.11 R Williams 26.3 .255 5.6 1.45
Love 13.3 .050 0.0 1.27 White 18.8 .236 8.8 .86
Zeller -10.0 -.235 -22.0 -.72 Pritchard -4.6 -.097 -11.4 -.84
Robinson -12.3 -.263 -20.7 -1.11
. totals 17.8 .158 1.77 1.19 . totals 14.0 .058 0.73 .82
Re: 2023 Conference Finals: Den-LA & Bos-Mia
Posted: Fri May 19, 2023 11:05 am
by Mike G
Nuggets 2 - 0 Lakers
avg score 120.0 - 114.5
Pyth wins 1.30 - .70 , eWins 1.15 - .85
Code: Select all
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.52 Nikola Jokić Den 42 .633 25.0 19.5 10.6 1.3 4.7 .9 2.98
.41 Jamal Murray Den 40 .673 31.5 8.2 4.4 3.2 2.0 .5 2.47
.32 Anthony Davis LA 42 .592 22.5 9.9 2.9 1.8 1.8 2.7 1.87
.32 LeBron James LA 40 .565 19.5 9.0 8.1 1.9 2.8 1.4 1.93
.17 Austin Reaves LA 39 .692 19.7 2.2 5.7 .5 .9 .0 1.03
.15 Michael Porter Den 33 .674 16.2 11.1 2.6 .0 2.4 1.1 1.08
.09 Bruce Brown Den 31 .596 13.0 6.0 2.6 .6 .0 .6 .73
.08 Rui Hachimura LA 29 .826 21.1 1.1 1.1 .6 .6 .6 .68
.07 Kentavious C-P Den 31 .580 14.6 3.5 2.8 1.2 1.3 .6 .55
.03 D'Angelo Russell LA 30 .429 7.9 1.8 4.6 1.3 1.2 .6 .21
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
-.01 Aaron Gordon Den 38 .500 8.7 4.0 2.3 .0 2.6 .5 -.07
-.01 Lonnie Walker LA 17 .444 4.7 2.7 .9 2.0 .0 .0 -.18
-.02 Christian Braun Den 9 .000 .0 4.2 .0 .0 .0 1.8 -.65
-.02 Ja. Vanderbilt LA 14 .667 4.5 3.6 1.2 1.3 1.3 .0 -.41
-.03 Dennis Schröder LA 31 .417 3.9 4.9 2.7 .6 1.7 .0 -.27
-.05 Jeff Green Den 16 .357 2.8 3.5 .0 .0 1.1 .0 -.70
shooting : Den .600 - .596 LAL
rebounds:
Den 48.0 - 35.0 LAL
turnovers: LAL 9.5 - 14.0 Den
Code: Select all
. Nuggs PER WS/48 BPM e480 . Lakers PER WS/48 BPM e480
Jokić 31.4 .295 13.7 2.98 Davis 25.0 .168 5.5 1.87
Murray 31.9 .333 13.6 2.47 LeBron 24.6 .128 7.7 1.93
Gordon 6.5 -.018 -6.9 -.07 Reaves 19.3 .155 5.1 1.03
Porter 15.6 .115 2.4 1.08 Schröder 2.5 -.076 -8.0 -.27
Brown 15.9 .161 1.2 .73 Russell 8.0 -.085 -6.1 .21
KCP 13.4 .090 -1.4 .55 Hachimura 21.9 .186 4.2 .68
Green -1.7 -.078 -11.2 -.70 Walker 6.2 -.011 -4.1 -.18
Braun -7.6 -.180 -15.7 -.65 Vanderbilt 4.1 -.020 -4.3 -.41
. totals 17.3 .140 2.54 1.16 . totals 16.1 .075 1.24 .85
Re: 2023 Conference Finals: Den-LA & Bos-Mia
Posted: Sat May 20, 2023 3:26 pm
by Mike G
Heat 2 - 0 Celtics
avg score 117.0 - 110.5
Pyth wins 1.36 - .64 , eWins 1.18 - .82
Code: Select all
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.43 Jimmy Butler Mia 42 .549 25.2 7.2 5.4 3.9 3.1 .9 2.43
.35 Bam Adebayo Mia 38 .575 19.3 15.4 6.4 .5 2.3 .0 2.26
.34 Jayson Tatum Bos 42 .660 27.5 9.8 3.7 .0 4.0 .4 1.94
.20 Caleb Martin Mia 31 .741 21.7 5.6 1.6 1.7 .7 1.1 1.58
.16 Robert Williams Bos 25 .931 21.8 8.1 .7 .7 2.2 2.2 1.52
.08 Marcus Smart Bos 34 .588 9.9 3.0 7.1 1.1 2.7 .5 .60
.08 Jaylen Brown Bos 38 .413 13.8 6.9 3.6 .0 3.9 .0 .49
.07 Malcolm Brogdon Bos 32 .582 15.2 3.7 1.5 .6 1.7 1.1 .56
.07 Derrick White Bos 22 .917 16.8 2.5 1.4 .8 .8 1.5 .78
.05 Kyle Lowry Mia 23 .441 9.1 3.7 5.5 1.5 2.6 1.5 .57
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.04 Kevin Love Mia 16 .571 8.5 15.5 2.1 2.2 5.3 .0 .63
.04 Max Strus Mia 31 .722 14.4 3.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .30
.03 Gabe Vincent Mia 38 .667 10.7 3.0 .9 1.4 1.1 .5 .20
.03 Duncan Robinson Mia 14 .682 15.1 1.4 1.0 1.1 .0 .0 .53
.02 Al Horford Bos 31 .346 3.4 6.6 2.2 1.8 .6 1.2 .19
.02 Grant Williams Bos 13 .750 10.7 2.9 2.4 .0 .0 1.3 .36
.00 Cody Zeller Mia 10 .200 1.6 17.0 .0 .0 3.6 1.5 .05
shooting : Mia .597 - .592 Bos
rebounds: Mia 40.0 - 34.5 Bos
turnovers: Mia 13.0 - 15.0 Bos
Code: Select all
. Heat PER WS/48 BPM e480 . Celts PER WS/48 BPM e480
Butler 27.0 .210 7.5 2.43 Tatum 21.8 .145 3.6 1.94
Vincent 11.0 .125 -1.1 .20 Brown 4.3 -.177 -9.7 .49
Adebayo 22.1 .213 4.1 2.26 Smart 11.8 .064 0.9 .60
Martin 25.2 .258 9.1 1.58 Brogdon 12.8 .045 -0.9 .56
Strus 12.9 .151 -1.0 .30 Horford 6.4 -.012 -1.6 .19
Lowry 9.9 .009 -1.8 .57 R Williams 26.1 .248 7.3 1.52
Love 6.6 -.007 -4.3 .63 White 19.7 .195 8.7 .78
Robinson 17.0 .180 -6.2 .53 G Williams 14.8 .163 4.3 .36
Zeller 1.1 -.111 -15.8 .05 Pritchard -4.6 -.100 -11.4 -.84
. totals 17.1 .148 1.35 1.18 . totals 13.8 .060 0.39 .82
Re: 2023 Conference Finals: Den-LA & Bos-Mia
Posted: Sun May 21, 2023 11:28 am
by Mike G
Nuggets 3 - 0 Lakers
avg score 119.7 - 112.3
Pyth wins 2.10 - .90 , eWins 1.80 - 1.20
Code: Select all
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.70 Nikola Jokić Den 41 .600 23.9 15.6 9.8 1.2 4.0 .6 2.74
.66 Jamal Murray Den 40 .652 31.1 7.8 4.7 2.7 1.7 .3 2.64
.52 Anthony Davis LA 42 .606 22.1 11.8 2.2 1.2 1.5 2.4 2.00
.48 LeBron James LA 41 .546 18.3 8.0 8.7 1.2 2.4 .9 1.86
.29 Austin Reaves LA 39 .747 20.9 3.6 5.3 .6 1.9 .0 1.17
.27 Michael Porter Den 35 .643 14.6 11.1 3.7 .4 1.5 .7 1.22
.18 Bruce Brown Den 30 .606 14.2 6.2 3.6 .8 .0 .4 .94
.11 Kentavious C-P Den 32 .639 15.4 3.6 1.8 1.5 1.3 .4 .54
.09 Rui Hachimura LA 31 .708 16.3 2.8 1.0 .7 .7 .4 .45
.00 D'Angelo Russell LA 26 .362 6.5 2.6 5.1 .9 2.3 .5 .00
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
-.01 Aaron Gordon Den 36 .500 8.2 4.0 2.9 .0 2.2 .7 -.04
-.01 Lonnie Walker LA 17 .531 7.4 2.3 1.7 1.2 .0 .0 -.08
-.03 Christian Braun Den 7 .000 .0 4.7 .0 .0 .0 1.4 -.82
-.06 Ja. Vanderbilt LA 14 .429 3.2 3.1 .8 .8 .8 .0 -.70
-.06 Jeff Green Den 18 .500 4.1 4.6 .5 .0 .6 .0 -.56
-.10 Dennis Schröder LA 29 .417 4.1 3.4 2.2 .8 1.6 .0 -.56
shooting : Den .603 - .580 LAL
rebounds:
Den 45.0 - 38.3 LAL
turnovers: LAL 10.3 - 11.3 Den
Code: Select all
. Nuggs PER WS/48 BPM e480 . Lakers PER WS/48 BPM e480
Jokić 27.5 .250 10.3 2.74 Davis 26.0 .185 5.6 2.00
Murray 30.5 .298 11.7 2.64 LeBron 22.2 .108 6.9 1.86
Gordon 7.4 .012 -5.5 -.04 Reaves 20.6 .170 6.4 1.17
Porter 16.0 .147 3.6 1.22 Hachimura 17.2 .125 1.9 .45
KCP 14.4 .113 0.2 .54 Schröder 1.6 -.080 -8.8 -.56
Brown 17.8 .193 2.2 .94 Russell 4.0 -.169 -8.3 .00
Green 2.8 .006 -7.5 -.56 Walker 9.8 .061 -0.8 -.08
Braun -7.3 -.147 -15.7 -.82 Vanderbilt 1.7 -.077 -7.2 -.70
. totals 17.4 .151 2.69 1.20 . totals 15.4 .059 0.94 .80
Re: 2023 Conference Finals: Den-LA & Bos-Mia
Posted: Mon May 22, 2023 11:01 am
by Mike G
Heat 3 - 0 Celtics
avg score 120.7 - 107.7
Pyth wins 2.46 - .54 , eWins 1.98 - 1.02
Code: Select all
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.60 Jimmy Butler Mia 38 .534 23.4 7.9 6.0 3.5 3.0 .6 2.52
.43 Bam Adebayo Mia 34 .618 19.9 11.8 5.6 .7 2.9 .4 2.04
.37 Jayson Tatum Bos 39 .582 21.4 9.7 3.1 .6 3.8 .3 1.53
.33 Caleb Martin Mia 32 .763 21.2 4.6 2.4 1.4 .4 .7 1.64
.22 Gabe Vincent Mia 37 .815 18.8 2.7 1.6 1.3 1.5 .7 .96
.17 Robert Williams Bos 20 .761 18.6 10.1 .5 .6 2.2 1.7 1.36
.16 Duncan Robinson Mia 17 .787 23.9 2.1 2.9 .6 .7 .0 1.52
.13 Marcus Smart Bos 32 .509 8.5 5.3 7.3 .8 2.6 .4 .66
.10 Derrick White Bos 23 .738 13.5 3.5 1.7 1.0 1.0 1.9 .68
.08 Kyle Lowry Mia 24 .478 8.6 4.7 5.3 1.3 2.1 .9 .55
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.07 Max Strus Mia 29 .643 13.6 3.4 .4 .4 .0 .0 .41
.07 Kevin Love Mia 12 .650 11.9 13.7 1.8 1.8 4.2 .0 .88
.06 Jaylen Brown Bos 35 .397 12.4 6.8 3.1 .0 3.9 .0 .30
.04 Grant Williams Bos 18 .808 12.1 3.1 2.2 .0 .6 .6 .34
.04 Payton Pritchard Bos 8 .545 12.8 2.5 6.6 .0 1.2 .0 .77
.01 Malcolm Brogdon Bos 27 .478 10.0 3.4 1.8 .4 1.6 .8 .08
.01 Al Horford Bos 26 .447 5.4 5.0 2.0 1.4 .9 .9 .06
.01 Cody Zeller Mia 12 .300 3.1 12.0 .0 .0 1.8 2.4 .11
shooting :
Mia .630 - .551 Bos
rebounds: Bos 42.0 - 38.3 Mia
turnovers: Mia 12.0 - 15.0 Bos
Code: Select all
. Heat PER WS/48 BPM e480 . Celts PER WS/48 BPM e480
Butler 25.0 .193 5.1 2.52 Tatum 17.0 .044 1.1 1.53
Vincent 17.4 .210 3.9 .96 Brown 3.1 -.212 -11.1 .30
Adebayo 20.9 .216 3.0 2.04 Smart 11.3 .038 -0.8 .66
Martin 24.1 .272 9.2 1.64 Brogdon 6.9 -.054 -5.1 .08
Strus 12.6 .142 -0.7 .41 Horford 7.2 -.026 -1.8 .06
Lowry 9.9 .057 -2.3 .55 White 16.1 .123 6.7 .68
Robinson 25.6 .293 9.5 1.52 R Williams 25.3 .184 3.8 1.36
Zeller 5.1 -.038 -10.3 .11 G Williams 14.6 .149 3.3 .34
Love 10.4 .075 -2.2 .88 Pritchard 16.6 .142 4.1 .77
. totals 18.0 .176 2.63 1.31 . totals 12.8 .027 -0.65 .68
Re: 2023 Conference Finals: Den-LA & Bos-Mia
Posted: Mon May 22, 2023 4:20 pm
by Crow
Nuggets and Heat both winning more because of offense, but defense also above average. Celtics, not enough defense. Lakers not enough offense.
Re: 2023 Conference Finals: Den-LA & Bos-Mia
Posted: Mon May 22, 2023 11:33 pm
by Mike G
In the season, Celts shot .377 from the arc; in this series .292
Heats have upped their 3fg% from .344 in RS to .478 vs Bos.
At .377 success, Bos' should have 120 points from their 106 3fga; but they are 27 pts short of that.
Miami RS rate would get them ~95 pts from their 92 attempts, but they're +37 ahead of that.
So there's 64 more points the Heat have gotten "from downtown", just by hitting a lot more than normal, and the Celts hitting fewer than normal.
Miami has outscored Boston by 39 over 3 games.
I've not noticed Miami getting an unusual number of open shots from the arc, and in fact the Celts have attempted more. So we could say the Heat are producing 'too much offense'.
In their 30 point game 3 defeat, Celts out-rebounded Heat 57-35; including 21-1 in offensive boards!
Re: 2023 Conference Finals: Den-LA & Bos-Mia
Posted: Tue May 23, 2023 3:11 pm
by Mike G
Nuggets 4 - 0 Lakers
avg score 118.0 - 112.0
Pyth wins 2.67 - 1.33 , eWins 2.33 - 1.67
Code: Select all
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.97 Nikola Jokić Den 42 .587 23.8 14.9 10.0 1.1 3.8 1.1 2.79
.77 Jamal Murray Den 41 .644 28.3 6.5 4.6 2.5 1.8 .5 2.27
.77 LeBron James LA 43 .594 21.6 8.1 8.2 1.3 1.9 .6 2.16
.66 Anthony Davis LA 41 .588 20.5 12.4 1.9 1.1 1.3 2.5 1.93
.32 Austin Reaves LA 40 .726 19.0 3.2 4.6 .5 1.6 .0 .96
.30 Michael Porter Den 36 .577 12.8 10.9 2.9 .3 1.5 .8 1.00
.15 Bruce Brown Den 28 .620 12.8 5.6 2.9 .6 .3 .3 .64
.13 Aaron Gordon Den 37 .573 11.2 4.6 3.4 .0 1.7 1.0 .42
.11 Kentavious C-P Den 34 .628 13.4 3.8 1.6 1.1 1.3 .5 .39
.05 Rui Hachimura LA 34 .610 12.1 3.9 .7 .5 .5 .3 .19
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.01 D'Angelo Russell LA 24 .379 6.7 3.0 5.0 .8 2.3 .8 .06
-.03 Lonnie Walker LA 15 .528 7.1 2.1 1.5 1.0 .5 .0 -.24
-.03 Christian Braun Den 5 .000 .0 4.7 .0 .0 .0 1.4 -.76
-.06 Ja. Vanderbilt LA 10 .429 3.2 3.2 .8 .8 .8 .0 -.64
-.06 Dennis Schröder LA 31 .452 5.8 3.1 2.9 1.1 1.4 .0 -.24
-.07 Jeff Green Den 16 .545 4.1 4.4 .5 .0 .5 .5 -.49
shooting : Den .600 - .575 LAL
rebounds: Den 43.8 - 38.3 LAL
turnovers: LAL 9.3 - 11.3 Den
Code: Select all
. Lakers PER WS/48 BPM e480 . Nuggs PER WS/48 BPM e480
LeBron 25.6 .175 10.7 2.16 Jokić 27.6 .248 11.2 2.79
Davis 24.4 .175 4.6 1.93 Murray 27.9 .257 9.1 2.27
Reaves 18.6 .151 4.6 .96 Gordon 12.6 .082 -1.0 .42
Hachimura 13.0 .080 -1.6 .19 Porter 13.9 .104 0.8 1.00
Schröder 4.4 -.048 -6.0 -.24 KCP 12.7 .095 -0.4 .39
Russell 4.8 -.151 -7.7 .06 Brown 15.4 .166 0.4 .64
Walker 8.1 .022 -3.0 -.24 Green 3.9 .028 -6.0 -.49
Vanderbilt 1.7 -.095 -7.2 -.64 Braun -7.3 -.163 -15.7 -.76
Thompson 8.2 -.052 -5.7 -.43
. totals 15.4 .068 1.14 .83 .totals 17.3 .147 2.69 1.17
Re: 2023 Conference Finals: Den-LA & Bos-Mia
Posted: Wed May 24, 2023 10:56 am
by Mike G
Heat
3 - 1 Celtics
avg score 115.3 - 109.8
Pyth wins 2.63 - 1.37 , eWins 2.31 - 1.69
Code: Select all
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.80 Jimmy Butler Mia 39 .535 23.5 8.6 5.6 2.9 2.7 .7 2.50
.62 Jayson Tatum Bos 40 .617 24.3 9.5 3.9 .7 4.0 .7 1.89
.39 Bam Adebayo Mia 34 .607 17.1 10.6 4.2 .8 3.3 .3 1.37
.38 Caleb Martin Mia 33 .771 20.2 4.7 2.1 1.0 .9 .8 1.39
.29 Gabe Vincent Mia 35 .761 19.5 2.5 2.3 1.1 1.5 .5 1.01
.20 Derrick White Bos 24 .723 16.1 3.1 2.0 1.4 1.1 2.1 .98
.19 Marcus Smart Bos 33 .506 9.1 4.7 7.2 1.1 2.2 .3 .71
.16 Robert Williams Bos 21 .724 16.8 7.6 .4 .4 2.0 2.0 .95
.13 Grant Williams Bos 21 .833 14.4 4.4 2.2 .4 .4 .8 .77
.13 Jaylen Brown Bos 35 .411 13.2 5.9 3.4 .5 3.1 .0 .45
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.12 Duncan Robinson Mia 15 .684 19.5 2.4 2.9 .5 1.7 .0 .93
.11 Kevin Love Mia 12 .594 12.6 14.1 1.4 2.1 3.2 .0 1.13
.10 Kyle Lowry Mia 25 .435 7.3 6.6 5.7 1.6 2.9 .7 .49
.10 Al Horford Bos 26 .537 8.2 6.1 2.8 1.0 .7 1.0 .47
.10 Max Strus Mia 31 .608 12.0 4.9 .6 .3 .0 .0 .40
.05 Payton Pritchard Bos 6 .615 17.2 2.2 6.3 .0 1.1 .0 1.08
.02 Cody Zeller Mia 13 .407 4.9 11.1 .0 .0 1.3 1.7 .21
.02 Malcolm Brogdon Bos 25 .442 8.8 4.3 2.5 .3 1.7 .7 .09
shooting :
Mia .607 - .569 Bos
rebounds: Bos 41.3 - 39.8 Mia
turnovers: Mia 13.0 - 13.8 Bos
Code: Select all
. Heat PER WS/48 BPM e480 . Celts PER WS/48 BPM e480
Butler 25.3 .184 6.1 2.50 Tatum 19.8 .098 3.5 1.89
Vincent 17.9 .203 3.6 1.01 Brown 5.1 -.146 -9.3 .45
Adebayo 16.2 .123 -0.4 1.37 Smart 12.0 .067 -0.4 .71
Martin 21.9 .225 7.7 1.39 Horford 10.5 .062 0.9 .47
Strus 11.2 .106 -1.9 .40 Brogdon 5.9 -.057 -6.2 .09
Lowry 8.9 .011 -2.8 .49 White 18.2 .166 7.2 .98
Robinson 19.1 .158 3.6 .93 G Williams 18.1 .214 6.4 .77
Zeller 8.0 .025 -7.5 .21 R Williams 20.1 .154 1.0 .95
Love 12.1 .062 -0.2 1.13 Pritchard 22.6 .234 7.3 1.08
. totals 16.6 .136 1.61 1.16 . totals 14.0 .069 0.38 .84
Re: 2023 Conference Finals: Den-LA & Bos-Mia
Posted: Fri May 26, 2023 12:55 pm
by Mike G
Heat
3 - 2 Celtics
avg score 111.6 - 109.8
Pyth wins 2.77 - 2.23 , eWins 2.63 - 2.37
Code: Select all
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.92 Jimmy Butler Mia 38 .535 21.6 8.4 5.4 2.7 2.6 .6 2.35
.82 Jayson Tatum Bos 40 .606 23.4 9.0 5.1 .9 3.9 .6 1.97
.46 Bam Adebayo Mia 34 .591 16.9 10.9 3.9 1.1 4.0 .4 1.31
.40 Caleb Martin Mia 33 .721 18.7 5.2 1.6 .8 1.2 .6 1.17
.38 Marcus Smart Bos 32 .579 13.0 4.5 6.5 2.0 2.3 .2 1.11
.33 Derrick White Bos 27 .789 19.2 3.1 1.8 1.6 1.1 1.6 1.19
.29 Gabe Vincent Mia 28 .761 19.4 2.6 2.3 1.0 1.4 .5 1.00
.26 Duncan Robinson Mia 18 .722 21.2 3.5 5.1 .4 1.5 .0 1.41
.22 Jaylen Brown Bos 36 .442 14.5 5.1 3.2 1.0 2.7 .0 .60
.20 Robert Williams Bos 20 .750 16.3 7.6 .6 .3 1.7 2.0 .97
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.20 Al Horford Bos 27 .515 7.9 7.7 3.6 1.1 .5 1.1 .71
.16 Kevin Love Mia 12 .543 12.1 15.3 1.0 1.6 2.4 .0 1.22
.12 Grant Williams Bos 22 .759 12.4 4.6 1.7 .3 .3 .9 .51
.05 Max Strus Mia 29 .571 10.2 4.2 .7 .2 .0 .0 .16
.04 Payton Pritchard Bos 6 .533 13.8 2.8 6.4 .0 1.9 .0 .72
.04 Cody Zeller Mia 11 .484 6.7 11.9 .0 .0 1.8 1.6 .35
.03 Kyle Lowry Mia 26 .444 6.9 6.1 4.7 1.3 3.4 .5 .09
.02 Ha. Highsmith Mia 9 .833 11.1 1.7 1.4 1.4 .0 .0 .23
-.01 Malcolm Brogdon Bos 21 .420 8.1 4.0 2.4 .3 1.6 .6 -.06
shooting : Mia .603 - .579 Bos
rebounds: Bos 40.4 - 39.0 Mia
turnovers: Bos 13.0 - 13.6 Mia
Code: Select all
. Celts PER WS/48 BPM e480 . Heat PER WS/48 BPM e480
Tatum 20.1 .113 3.3 1.97 Butler 24.1 .163 5.2 2.35
Brown 8.4 -.081 -7.1 .60 Adebayo 15.9 .073 -0.8 1.31
Smart 15.9 .125 2.8 1.11 Martin 19.4 .172 4.8 1.17
Horford 13.1 .100 1.8 .71 Strus 9.4 .068 -3.2 .16
White 20.6 .209 8.1 1.19 Vincent 17.9 .190 3.6 1.00
GWilliams 15.6 .189 2.9 .51 Lowry 6.3 -.040 -5.1 .09
Brogdon 5.1 -.065 -7.6 -.06 Robinson 22.5 .225 7.7 1.41
RWilliams 20.6 .169 1.7 .97 Love 13.3 .050 -1.8 1.22
Pritchard 15.9 .110 0.5 .72 Zeller 10.4 .033 -6.3 .35
Kornet 34.8 .405 12.4 1.41 Highsmith 15.6 .185 6.7 .23
Hauser 19.7 .152 2.1 1.14
. totals 15.3 .094 0.83 .95 . totals 16.1 .112 1.09 1.05
Re: 2023 Conference Finals: Den-LA & Bos-Mia
Posted: Sat May 27, 2023 1:00 am
by Crow
I'd be looking hard at options to trade Jaylen Brown in near-term.
Re: 2023 Conference Finals: Den-LA & Bos-Mia
Posted: Sun May 28, 2023 11:46 am
by Mike G
Heat
3 - 3 Celtics
avg score 110.2 - 108.8
Pyth wins 3.24 - 2.76 , eWins 3.12 - 2.88
Code: Select all
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
1.05 Jimmy Butler Mia 39 .514 20.8 8.5 5.7 2.4 2.4 .5 2.15
1.02 Jayson Tatum Bos 41 .588 23.9 9.1 5.1 .9 3.7 .8 2.01
.55 Caleb Martin Mia 34 .717 19.0 7.1 1.5 .9 1.1 .7 1.30
.55 Bam Adebayo Mia 36 .532 14.7 10.9 4.1 1.0 3.2 .5 1.24
.42 Derrick White Bos 29 .745 17.1 3.2 2.6 1.4 .8 1.8 1.14
.40 Marcus Smart Bos 34 .589 14.3 4.2 5.5 1.6 2.5 .2 .94
.37 Jaylen Brown Bos 36 .473 16.5 5.8 3.2 1.2 2.9 .0 .83
.30 Duncan Robinson Mia 18 .693 21.5 3.1 4.9 .3 1.3 .0 1.33
.27 Robert Williams Bos 20 .753 17.3 8.4 .6 .3 1.4 2.0 1.11
.26 Gabe Vincent Mia 30 .664 17.0 2.9 1.8 .8 1.3 .6 .69
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.21 Al Horford Bos 28 .488 7.2 7.8 3.5 .9 .7 1.3 .60
.16 Kevin Love Mia 10 .543 12.9 15.4 1.1 1.7 2.5 .0 1.25
.09 Kyle Lowry Mia 25 .465 7.9 5.6 5.0 1.6 3.2 .7 .30
.08 Max Strus Mia 29 .563 10.6 3.7 1.3 .2 .0 .0 .21
.07 Grant Williams Bos 22 .656 9.9 4.5 1.8 .3 .3 .8 .25
.05 Payton Pritchard Bos 5 .533 15.0 3.0 6.9 .0 2.0 .0 .89
.03 Cody Zeller Mia 9 .485 7.2 11.2 .0 .0 1.7 1.6 .30
.03 Ha. Highsmith Mia 7 .833 11.5 1.7 1.4 1.5 .0 .0 .28
.00 Malcolm Brogdon Bos 18 .420 8.4 4.0 2.5 .3 1.6 .6 .01
shooting : Mia .580 - .573 Bos
rebounds: Bos 41.5 - 40.3 Mia
turnovers: Mia 12.2 - 12.8 Bos
Code: Select all
. Heat PER WS/48 BPM e480 . Celts PER WS/48 BPM e480
Butler 22.8 .156 4.9 2.15 Tatum 20.9 .130 4.0 2.01
Adebayo 15.2 .068 -1.1 1.24 Brown 11.3 -.036 -5.0 .83
Martin 19.6 .182 5.4 1.30 Smart 14.7 .094 1.5 .94
Vincent 14.5 .129 0.9 .69 White 19.5 .199 8.1 1.14
Strus 9.6 .076 -2.6 .21 Horford 11.4 .081 0.4 .60
Lowry 8.2 -.011 -3.5 .30 G Williams 12.3 .139 0.4 .25
Robinson 21.0 .211 6.9 1.33 R Williams 21.3 .187 2.5 1.11
Love 13.8 .055 -1.8 1.25 Brogdon 5.5 -.065 -7.6 .01
Zeller 10.4 .033 -6.6 .30 Pritchard 16.1 .110 0.5 .89
Highsmith 15.6 .182 6.7 .28
. totals 15.7 .110 1.08 1.04 . totals 15.3 .095 0.94 .96
Re: 2023 Conference Finals: Den-LA & Bos-Mia
Posted: Mon May 29, 2023 1:56 pm
by Mike G
Game-by-game eWins. Re-created by subtracting previous from 'current' running totals.
Code: Select all
Miami 1 2 3 4 5 6 tot.
Butler .22 .21 .17 .20 .12 .13 1.05
Adebayo .11 .24 .08 -.04 .07 .09 .55
Martin .09 .11 .13 .05 .02 .15 .55
Robinson .00 .03 .13 -.04 .14 .04 .30
Vincent .06 -.03 .19 .07 .00 -.03 .26
Love .04 .00 .03 .04 .05 .00 .16
Lowry .06 -.01 .03 .02 -.07 .06 .09
Strus .03 .01 .03 .03 -.05 .03 .08
others -.02 .03 .01 .00 .04 .02 .08
Heat T .59 .59 .80 .33 .32 .49 3.12
Pythag. .69 .67 1.10 .17 .14 .47 3.24
Code: Select all
Boston 1 2 3 4 5 6 tot.
Tatum .10 .24 .03 .25 .20 .20 1.02
White .04 .03 .03 .10 .13 .09 .42
Smart .09 -.01 .05 .06 .19 .02 .40
Brown .07 .01 -.02 .07 .09 .15 .37
RWilliams .08 .08 .01 -.01 .04 .07 .27
Horford .04 -.02 -.01 .09 .10 .01 .21
GWilliams .00 .02 .02 .09 -.01 -.05 .07
Brogdon .01 .06 -.06 .01 -.03 .01 .00
others -.02 .00 .15 .01 -.03 .01 .12
Celtics .41 .41 .20 .67 .68 .51 2.88
Pythag. .31 .33 -.10 .83 .86 .53 2.76
Re: 2023 Conference Finals: Den-LA & Bos-Mia
Posted: Mon May 29, 2023 2:04 pm
by Crow
Last chance for Butler to reverse his recent games decline enough to challenge for title this year... or ever?
Is Adebayo an adequate #2? Looking not.
Celtics might be short on #1 and / or #2 as well.
At least one will be. Probably both ultimately.