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Re: 2024 Finals: Boston Celtics vs Dallas Mavericks
Posted: Mon Jun 10, 2024 11:29 am
by Mike G
Celts 2 - 0 Mavs
avg score 106.0 - 93.5
Pyth wins 1.68 - .32 , eWins 1.34 - .66 :
Code: Select all
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.38 Luka Dončić Dal 41 .579 31.9 9.6 4.9 2.8 5.4 .0 2.24
.36 Jrue Holiday Bos 38 .760 27.0 9.8 4.2 .9 .0 .5 2.25
.28 Jaylen Brown Bos 40 .623 25.8 4.6 4.5 2.6 4.2 1.4 1.65
.21 Kr. Porziņģis Bos 22 .696 31.6 7.6 .8 .0 .9 3.8 2.27
.18 Derrick White Bos 37 .589 19.2 3.5 3.8 1.9 1.7 1.0 1.18
.17 Jayson Tatum Bos 44 .405 11.9 8.4 7.8 .4 4.3 .4 .90
.16 Daniel Gafford Dal 19 .700 25.8 12.0 .9 1.0 .0 1.0 2.09
.13 Al Horford Bos 29 .625 11.0 9.0 3.5 .6 .0 1.3 1.04
.10 P.J. Washington Dal 39 .534 13.7 7.2 .9 .0 .5 .5 .65
.06 Jaden Hardy Dal 7 .650 36.0 7.0 2.0 .0 .0 .0 2.34
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.03 Derrick Jones Dal 31 .457 7.7 5.5 1.1 1.3 .6 .6 .26
.02 Dante Exum Dal 8 1.50 16.7 5.7 3.4 .0 3.8 .0 .61
.01 Sam Hauser Bos 14 .500 10.6 3.6 1.3 .0 .0 .0 .19
.01 Kyrie Irving Dal 39 .368 9.1 2.4 3.4 1.0 2.4 .0 .06
-.01 Pa. Pritchard Bos 14 .167 1.1 3.4 5.0 1.1 1.3 .0 -.15
-.02 Dereck Lively Dal 19 .400 2.7 10.7 .8 .9 3.5 .0 -.20
-.03 Josh Green Dal 17 .368 4.2 3.8 .0 .0 .0 .0 -.36
-.05 Maxi Kleber Dal 18 .200 .6 1.9 .8 .0 .9 .9 -.70
shooting :
Bos .579 - .511 Dal
rebounds: Bos 44.0 - 43.0 Dal
turnovers: Bos 12.5 - 13.0 Dal
https://www.basketball-reference.com/pl ... _2024.html
Code: Select all
. Bos min PER WS/48 BPM e480 . Dal min PER WS/48 BPM e480
Tatum 44 8.8 -.005 -2.7 .90 Dončić 41 23.8 .059 12.6 2.24
Brown 40 19.7 .192 6.2 1.66 Irving 39 4.9 -.135 -5.9 .06
Holiday 38 26.3 .376 10.7 2.25 Washington 39 13.8 .109 1.4 .65
White 37 16.2 .187 4.8 1.18 Jones 31 11.1 .047 0.2 .26
Horford 29 15.4 .214 5.1 1.04 Gafford 19 30.9 .294 11.4 2.09
Porziņģis 22 28.3 .312 10.0 2.27 Lively 19 3.8 -.070 -8.5 -.20
Pritchard 14 -.7 -.044 -9.0 -.15 Kleber 18 -3.1 -.080 -8.9 -.70
Hauser 14 7.4 .107 -3.2 .19 Green 17 3.2 -.038 -6.6 -.36
Exum 8 8.1 .027 0.3 .61
Hardy 7 34.5 .372 18.1 2.34
. totals 238 16.8 .184 3.95 1.33 . totals 235 12.2 .028 0.82 .66
correl. w min: .34 .20 .39 .45 .17 -.12 .22 .24
Re: 2024 Finals: Boston Celtics vs Dallas Mavericks
Posted: Mon Jun 10, 2024 3:18 pm
by Crow
Celtics knew they needed more options and leadership than Brown - Tatum and reinforced very well.
Re: 2024 Finals: Boston Celtics vs Dallas Mavericks
Posted: Thu Jun 13, 2024 11:26 am
by Mike G
Celtics 3 - 0 Mavs
avg score 106.0 - 95.3
Pyth wins 2.41 - .59 , eWins 1.96 - 1.04 :
Code: Select all
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.49 Jaylen Brown Bos 40 .619 27.7 5.7 5.6 1.8 3.7 1.2 1.94
.48 Luka Dončić Dal 40 .539 28.5 8.7 5.0 2.2 4.8 .0 1.95
.38 Jrue Holiday Bos 39 .691 19.1 7.9 4.4 .9 .0 .3 1.56
.33 Jayson Tatum Bos 43 .461 17.1 7.7 6.8 .6 3.4 .3 1.23
.28 Derrick White Bos 38 .613 18.3 4.0 3.8 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.15
.22 Daniel Gafford Dal 18 .750 24.4 10.8 1.2 .7 .0 1.4 1.96
.21 Kr. Porziņģis Bos 15 .696 30.6 7.9 .8 .0 .8 3.8 2.24
.16 Al Horford Bos 32 .639 10.5 7.7 2.9 1.1 .9 1.2 .82
.14 P.J. Washington Dal 38 .537 13.3 7.7 1.1 .0 1.0 .3 .60
.12 Kyrie Irving Dal 41 .460 15.8 2.5 2.7 .6 2.1 .0 .46
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.09 Dereck Lively Dal 22 .652 9.0 12.9 .9 1.5 2.0 .0 .66
.07 Sam Hauser Bos 14 .679 17.5 4.8 1.7 .0 .0 .0 .82
.04 Jaden Hardy Dal 6 .591 25.2 5.4 1.6 .0 1.8 .0 1.23
.04 Derrick Jones Dal 26 .462 6.9 6.0 1.3 1.5 .5 .5 .27
.03 Dante Exum Dal 6 1.25 19.9 5.2 3.0 .0 3.4 .0 .79
-.02 Josh Green Dal 19 .435 4.2 4.3 1.0 .6 .0 .0 -.17
-.02 Pa. Pritchard Bos 13 .115 .5 3.4 4.4 .8 .9 .0 -.27
-.03 Tim Hardaway Dal 9 .000 .0 3.7 .0 1.2 .0 .0 -.53
-.06 Maxi Kleber Dal 14 .143 .3 2.3 .7 .0 .8 .7 -.72
shooting :
Bos .579 - .512 Dal
rebounds: Dal 43.0 - 41.3 Bos
turnovers: Bos 11.3 - 11.7 Dal
Code: Select all
. Bos min PER WS/48 BPM e480 . Dal min PER WS/48 BPM e480
Tatum 43 12.3 .034 -0.9 1.23 Irving 41 9.8 -.056 -2.3 .46
Brown 40 21.4 .199 6.4 1.94 Dončić 40 21.4 .030 9.1 1.95
Holiday 39 20.6 .295 6.6 1.56 Washington 38 12.0 .085 1.1 .60
White 38 15.8 .185 4.2 1.15 Jones 26 11.1 .064 1.8 .27
Horford 32 13.2 .161 4.2 .82 Lively 22 14.2 .100 0.3 .66
Porziņģis 15 28.3 .305 10.0 2.24 Green 19 6.3 .021 -3.5 -.17
Hauser 14 15.1 .222 3.9 .82 Gafford 18 28.4 .290 10.3 1.96
Pritchard 13 -3.9 -.113 -13.4 -.27 Kleber 14 -4.0 -.105 -10.3 -.72
Tillman 4 16.9 .228 8.5 1.62 Hardaway 9 -6.7 -.219 -12.5 -.53
Exum 6 11.1 .068 1.0 .79
Hardy 6 21.7 .128 7.4 1.23
. totals 238 16.4 .173 3.59 1.30 . totals 239 12.5 .038 1.04 .70
min corr. 1-8 .24 .13 .28 .35 min corr 1-9 .46 .20 .51 .49
Seeing some major divergence among the stats, here they are converted to some kind of "wins" for easier comparison:
Code: Select all
Celtics min perW WS bpmW eW Mavs min perW WS bpmW eW
Tatum 129 .19 .09 .18 .33 Irving 124 .11 -.14 .12 .12
Brown 121 .43 .49 .45 .48 Dončić 119 .42 .07 .55 .48
Holiday 117 .39 .70 .44 .38 Washington 115 .16 .20 .23 .14
White 115 .26 .43 .35 .27 Jones 77 .09 .10 .17 .04
Horford 95 .16 .31 .29 .16 Lively 67 .13 .13 .12 .09
Porziņģis 44 .22 .27 .21 .20 Green 56 .01 .02 .03 -.02
Hauser 41 .09 .18 .12 .07 Gafford 53 .27 .31 .26 .21
Pritchard 39 -.08 -.09 -.10 -.02 Kleber 43 -.09 -.09 -.07 -.06
Tillman 12 .03 .06 .05 .04 Hardaway 27 -.08 -.12 -.06 -.03
Kornet 3 .03 .05 .03 .02 Exum 18 .02 .02 .04 .03
Mykhailiuk 3 .01 .02 .01 .01 Hardy 17 .06 .04 .07 .04
Brissett 2 .00 .00 .00 .00 Powell 5 -.01 .00 -.01 -.01
totals 721 1.73 2.51 2.04 1.96 totals 721 1.10 .55 1.45 1.04
Re: 2024 Finals: Boston Celtics vs Dallas Mavericks
Posted: Fri Jun 14, 2024 11:59 pm
by Mike G
Any guesses who will take Finals MVP?
Any of the top 4 Celtics could, if it ends tonight. Sometimes the clinching game outweighs the rest.
Re: 2024 Finals: Boston Celtics vs Dallas Mavericks
Posted: Sat Jun 15, 2024 12:56 pm
by Mike G
What a difference a game makes.
Celtics
3 - 1 Mavs
avg score : Dal 102.0 - 100.5 Bos
Pyth wins 2.20 - 1.80, eWins 2.10 - 1.90 :
Code: Select all
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.81 Luka Dončić Dal 38 .527 30.4 9.3 5.2 2.4 4.0 .0 2.59
.43 Jaylen Brown Bos 37 .568 22.2 4.2 4.6 1.5 3.5 1.0 1.40
.42 Jayson Tatum Bos 39 .479 18.7 6.5 5.7 .7 3.6 .7 1.30
.31 Jrue Holiday Bos 37 .648 15.4 6.0 3.7 .7 1.4 .5 1.03
.30 Kyrie Irving Dal 39 .486 19.2 3.4 3.5 .5 2.0 .0 .95
.30 Daniel Gafford Dal 16 .739 22.8 13.5 1.1 .6 .6 1.8 2.31
.26 Dereck Lively Dal 23 .703 11.4 17.4 .7 1.6 1.6 .0 1.40
.21 Derrick White Bos 37 .573 13.5 3.6 2.9 1.0 1.1 1.0 .69
.20 Kr. Porziņģis Bos 11 .696 26.5 7.1 .8 .0 .9 4.0 2.15
.18 P.J. Washington Dal 32 .556 13.9 8.6 1.1 .0 1.5 .3 .67
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.14 Al Horford Bos 30 .684 8.7 6.1 3.4 1.2 1.0 .9 .59
.13 Sam Hauser Bos 15 .786 19.5 5.1 1.1 .0 .0 .0 1.06
.12 Jaden Hardy Dal 8 .563 22.5 8.3 5.3 .0 1.2 .0 1.88
.07 Dante Exum Dal 8 .833 20.8 6.5 2.0 1.1 3.4 .0 1.08
.07 Derrick Jones Dal 23 .489 7.8 6.7 1.1 1.2 .4 .8 .37
.05 Tim Hardaway Dal 10 .536 11.7 6.4 .8 .9 .0 .0 .66
.04 Xavier Tillman Bos 5 .857 13.4 8.1 1.8 .0 2.0 3.6 .90
.02 Josh Green Dal 19 .433 4.9 6.8 1.3 .9 .0 .0 .11
-.02 Pa. Pritchard Bos 15 .259 5.7 3.6 4.5 .6 1.9 .0 -.12
-.09 Maxi Kleber Dal 17 .350 2.6 2.5 1.0 .5 .6 .5 -.62
shooting : Bos .563 - .542 Dal
rebounds:
Dal 45.3 - 38.8 Bos
turnovers: Dal 11.0 - 12.0 Bos
Code: Select all
. Bos min PER WS/48 BPM e480 . Dal min PER WS/48 BPM e480
Tatum 39 13.2 .011 -0.2 1.30 Irving 39 13.2 .036 -0.4 .95
Brown 37 16.8 .094 3.0 1.40 Dončić 38 22.8 .101 8.3 2.59
White 37 13.0 .106 1.9 .69 Washington 32 11.4 .108 -0.1 .67
Holiday 37 17.0 .168 3.6 1.03 Jones 23 11.1 .116 1.5 .37
Horford 30 13.1 .135 4.0 .59 Lively 23 19.4 .211 3.5 1.40
Pritchard 15 -1.4 -.174 -11.4 -.12 Green 19 8.5 .094 -0.7 .11
Hauser 15 19.6 .238 7.7 1.06 Kleber 17 1.5 .010 -4.2 -.62
Porziņģis 11 28.3 .274 10.0 2.15 Gafford 16 29.1 .348 9.8 2.31
Tillman 5 18.0 .230 6.9 .90 Hardaway 10 11.8 .106 3.2 .66
Brissett 4 18.9 .234 5.6 .78 Exum 8 15.8 .157 4.6 1.08
Kornet 3 12.9 .181 2.6 .29 Hardy 8 20.7 .217 7.6 1.88
. totals 233 14.2 .098 1.94 .95 . totals 230 14.5 .111 2.26 1.05
corr w min 1-7 .40 .19 .29 .60 corr w min 1-10 .26 -.27 .15 .43
Scaling all 4 stat totals to 4.00 wins, here are weighted averages thru 4 games:
Code: Select all
wins . Bos min pW WS bW eW wins . Dal min pW WS bW eW
.25 Tatum 156 .28 .03 .22 .42 .23 Irving 154 .28 .11 .21 .30
.37 Brown 149 .40 .28 .35 .43 .60 Dončić 151 .62 .30 .58 .81
.27 White 146 .26 .31 .30 .21 .20 Washington 129 .18 .28 .19 .18
.38 Holiday 146 .40 .49 .37 .31 .15 Jones 93 .12 .21 .18 .07
.25 Horford 118 .21 .32 .31 .14 .28 Lively 90 .30 .38 .22 .26
-.10 Pritchard 61 -.11 -.21 -.11 -.02 .07 Green 74 .05 .14 .09 .02
.21 Hauser 61 .20 .29 .22 .13 -.03 Kleber 66 -.07 .01 .02 -.09
.21 Porziņģis 44 .24 .24 .19 .20 .32 Gafford 63 .36 .44 .27 .30
.06 Tillman 19 .06 .09 .07 .04 .07 Hardaway 39 .06 .08 .09 .05
.05 Brissett 17 .05 .08 .05 .03 .08 Exum 32 .08 .10 .09 .07
wins . Bos min pW WS bW eW wins . Dal min pW WS bW eW
.03 Kornet 13 .02 .05 .03 .01 .12 Hardy 30 .11 .13 .11 .12
-.02 Mykhailiuk 13 -.02 -.06 -.02 .00 .00 Powell 13 -.01 .01 .01 -.01
-.01 Springer 8 -.01 -.01 -.01 -.01 -.02 Morris 12 -.03 -.05 -.03 .00
-.02 Walsh 5 -.02 -.03 -.02 -.01 .00 Lawson 8 .00 .00 .00 -.02
.02 Queta 5 .02 .03 .02 .01 -.01 Prosper 5 -.01 -.03 .00 .01
1.93 totals 960 1.97 1.88 1.96 1.90 2.07 . totals 960 2.03 2.12 2.04 2.10
Team leaders:
PER -- Luka .62 - .40 Brown/Jrue
WS -- Jrue .49 - .44 Gafford
BPM -- Luka .58 - .37 Jrue (.35 Brown)
eWins - Luka .81 - .43 Brown (.42 Tatum)
Re: 2024 Finals: Boston Celtics vs Dallas Mavericks
Posted: Sun Jun 16, 2024 1:22 am
by Mike G
Mavs centers Gafford and Lively never play together, and so we can just add their totals to see what one (rotating) C gets.
Game by game totals for the two; and the last 4 columns are their combined summary stats
through x games.
Code: Select all
Gm Min TSA TS% Pt Rb As St Bk TO > PER WS/48 BPM e480
1 32.8 5.8 .868 10 8 2 2 0 2 20.1 .185 3.2 1.28
2 41.7 13.8 .545 15 16 0 0 1 2 18.6 .128 2.3 1.05
3 46.3 9.4 .900 17 16 2 2 1 0 19.2 .167 3.8 1.12
4 32.2 11.4 .789 18 16 0 1 1 1 22.4 .253 5.4 1.68
In game 4, neither guy played after the 38 minute mark. They were on pace to total 41 minutes.
WinShares thinks they are Dallas' 2 best players; the rest say "he" is 2nd to Luka.
Re: 2024 Finals: Boston Celtics vs Dallas Mavericks
Posted: Sun Jun 16, 2024 3:17 pm
by Mike G
Mavs have flipped the rebounding advantage much as they did in the 2nd round vs Thunder.
Averages thru X games:
Code: Select all
G Dal OKC Dal Bos
1 39 - 52 - 43 - 47 -
2 41.5 46.5 43.0 44.0
3 43.7 44.7 43.0 41.3
4 44.5 44.8 45.3 38.8
5 44.8 42.4
6 45.2 40.5
In game 4, Jason Tatum led his team in rebounds with
5.
When's the last time 5 was the most for a team in a playoff game? in a Finals game?
Re: 2024 Finals: Boston Celtics vs Dallas Mavericks
Posted: Sun Jun 16, 2024 4:22 pm
by Crow
Mavs rebounding improvement over game 1 comes mainly from lower Celtics efg% in 2 of next 3 games. Only in game 4 did they have a large OReb lead.
Re: 2024 Finals: Boston Celtics vs Dallas Mavericks
Posted: Sun Jun 16, 2024 8:02 pm
by Mike G
In the 2015 Finals, LeBron James arguably generated about as many "wins" as any 2 of his opponents; yet Iguodala (GSW) got Finals mvp.
https://www.apbr.org/metrics/viewtopic. ... 1&start=30
According to that thread, 4 of 11 voters went for LeBron, on the losing Cavs.
Code: Select all
xyz 2015 Min PER e484 eWins WS WS/48 BPM vorp
2.22 LeBron 275 26.3 2.84 1.57 .90 .156 13.7 1.08
1.61 Curry 255 20.2 2.09 1.07 .83 .156 6.5 .54
1.42 Iguodala 223 18.0 1.53 .69 .92 .198 5.8 .43
1.37 Green 222 16.3 1.56 .70 .81 .176 6.3 .46
and this year:
Code: Select all
wins thru 4 G min perW WS bpmW eW
.58 Luka Dončić 151 .62 .30 .58 .81
.39 Jrue Holiday 146 .40 .49 .37 .31
.37 Jaylen Brown 149 .40 .28 .35 .43
.34 Daniel Gafford 63 .36 .44 .27 .30
.29 Dereck Lively 90 .30 .38 .22 .26
.27 Derrick White 146 .26 .31 .30 .21
.24 Jayson Tatum 156 .28 .03 .22 .42
.25 Al Horford 118 .21 .32 .31 .14
.23 Kyrie Irving 154 .28 .11 .21 .30
If Luka has another monster outing, and again it's just "not enough", it may be occasion to honor the legacy of Jerry West, who won the inaugural award with the losing team.
the 1969 Finals recreated (roughly):
Code: Select all
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF e480
1.64 Jerry West LAL 44 .553 31.7 2.9 5.5 2.4 2.57
1.16 John Havlicek Bos 48 .517 20.7 6.3 2.9 2.7 1.65
.69 Wilt Chamberlain LAL 47 .451 8.1 14.5 2.1 2.3 1.00
.66 Elgin Baylor LAL 37 .434 16.0 7.6 3.4 3.5 1.24
.61 Bill Russell Bos 48 .427 6.1 12.2 3.4 3.1 .88
.57 Sam Jones Bos 30 .502 21.1 3.2 2.3 3.9 1.30
.42 Don Nelson Bos 20 .472 19.2 7.8 1.7 6.0 1.43
.39 Larry Siegfried Bos 26 .460 17.8 2.7 3.4 5.9 1.03
.33 Johnny Egan LAL 35 .491 15.0 1.9 3.7 3.4 .65
.27 Mel Counts LAL 21 .519 16.0 7.3 1.3 7.0 .87
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF e480
.20 Em Bryant Bos 33 .450 10.7 4.1 2.5 4.2 .42
.13 Keith Erickson LAL 27 .413 10.0 5.9 2.0 4.3 .32
.10 Bailey Howell Bos 28 .359 10.8 5.2 .6 6.3 .26
.01 Tom Sanders Bos 6 .500 11.3 4.0 .8 11.5 .10
-.06 Bill Hewitt LAL 13 .327 4.6 6.3 .7 4.6 -.32
-.11 Tom Hawkins LAL 16 .310 4.2 5.4 .8 6.2 -.47
Lakers lost 4-3 despite outshooting the Celtics by .012 TS% and winning the boards by 5.3 Reb/G.
They also outscored Boston, but by only 0.4 ppg. So it was Defense -- the uncounted turnover differential -- that got the Celtics close enough to win a game 7.
(I had to add 1.0 TO to all Lakers' rates to make the eWins add up right. )
Re: 2024 Finals: Boston Celtics vs Dallas Mavericks
Posted: Sun Jun 16, 2024 8:38 pm
by Crow
Mavs +29 with 5 most used lineups, Celtics -21. But Mavs 5 most used played less than half of time. Still 6 winning +6 net margin but obviously Celtics better in 3, better on dink game by +15.
Mavs should increase top lineup concentration.
Celtics starters have lost significantly in last 3 games after winning their time by 1 point in game 1. They aren't going to change in game 5 but if it continues?
3 bad big minute pairs for Mavs are Doncic - Jones, Irving - Gafford and Wasington - Lively. None were bad in regular season but the latter 2 were below team average performance.
Irving - Donic has crushed Celtics in 3/4ths of game. They get crushed in the other 1/4tĥ. Take pair to 40+ minutes? Get to 40+ by slowing pace and strategic fouling?
Celtics 10 most used trios ALL negative, with 8 -9/100p and worse. 10 most used pairs also all negative. 5 most used quads bad to very bad. They have been totally dependent on dink game. Is the latter redeeming of terrible top lineup management? Yes ultimately, but not straight forward impressive.
Celtics bench winning the series? So far, by far over starters.
Implications for remaining games and probably the future, if they consider the information to be meaningful.
Seen this analysis anywhere else? Link?
Re: 2024 Finals: Boston Celtics vs Dallas Mavericks
Posted: Tue Jun 18, 2024 3:38 am
by Crow
Can quibble some but imo Celtics rotation is essentially
PGs, fairly large Wings and Centers. Usually 2 PGs, 2 WIngs, 1 Center but sometimes 1 PG, 2 Centers (or PF/Cs or simply "bigs"). But always 2 bigger wings. 3 basic skillsets. Tradition sized SGs mostly foregone for smaller or bigger.
Thunder could be argued as having 2 big wings (JDub and Giddey) or 2 PGS (SGA and Giddey) but not often both on court. 2 Centers on court together also rare and not working. Playing Dort, who isn't a PG or actually a big wing, is a major difference. White and Holiday are PGs who play defense. C Wallace isn't quite a PG yet.
Don't have to be an exact copy of Celtics but the number of multi-skill players, veterans, is something I would emulate. Players really missing a 3 ball, defense, passing or rebounding can create problems for or at least limit the eliteness of main lineups.
I haven't estimated the exact share of credit that can be assigned to Celtics 3pt shooting and 3pt defense but the success is almost all those 2 things, defensive rebounding and low fouling rate. Thunder not particularly strong at any of those 4 things in playoffs (or less or well less). Strong on 5 other factors but somehow not enough. Especially after the easy 1st round.
Thunder were close to Celtics on net rating in regular season but on details in playoffs they were pretty different.
I am not sure if the better general strategy against Celtics in future is to focus on 3pt game (both sides of court), offensive rebounding and getting to line or trying to win everything else but it will probably take a pretty massive success at one of these 2 approaches. But of course have to get there first, overcoming other teams and their strengths. Thunder would have to make many extreme changes to the current design to try the first approach. Largely betting that the second is the best for them and potentially enough. But blurring the two into one might be wise.
Re: 2024 Finals: Boston Celtics vs Dallas Mavericks
Posted: Tue Jun 18, 2024 11:53 am
by Mike G
Celtics 4 - 1 Mavs
avg score 101.6 - 99.2
Pyth wins 2.89 - 2.11 , eWins 2.70 - 2.30 :
Code: Select all
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.89 Luka Dončić Dal 39 .523 28.8 9.3 4.8 2.5 4.4 .0 2.18
.64 Jayson Tatum Bos 40 .498 20.6 6.7 6.6 .9 3.2 .5 1.52
.54 Jaylen Brown Bos 39 .525 20.9 4.8 4.8 1.5 2.9 .8 1.34
.42 Jrue Holiday Bos 38 .621 16.2 6.9 3.7 .6 1.5 .6 1.08
.35 Kyrie Irving Dal 39 .478 17.4 3.2 4.2 .6 1.7 .0 .87
.32 Daniel Gafford Dal 15 .714 24.9 12.4 .9 .5 .5 1.5 2.07
.31 Derrick White Bos 37 .585 14.8 4.5 2.6 1.1 1.3 1.0 .82
.25 Al Horford Bos 30 .673 10.3 7.2 3.2 1.4 .8 .7 .80
.23 Dereck Lively Dal 23 .683 10.7 14.5 .6 1.3 1.6 .3 .99
.22 Sam Hauser Bos 16 .732 22.6 6.0 1.4 .4 .0 .0 1.37
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.20 Kr. Porziņģis Bos 12 .661 25.0 6.2 .6 .0 .7 2.9 1.63
.16 P.J. Washington Dal 33 .519 11.9 7.8 1.4 .0 2.1 .7 .48
.12 Jaden Hardy Dal 7 .553 24.4 7.2 4.8 .0 1.1 .0 1.75
.10 Dante Exum Dal 8 .864 24.6 4.8 1.6 .9 2.6 .0 1.23
.09 Derrick Jones Dal 23 .508 9.3 5.0 .9 1.0 .3 .9 .36
.08 Josh Green Dal 19 .587 9.6 5.8 1.0 .8 .0 .0 .37
.05 Xavier Tillman Bos 4 .857 16.7 8.8 1.9 .0 2.1 3.7 1.22
.03 Oshae Brissett Bos 4 .700 16.0 5.5 .0 .0 .0 1.9 .84
.03 Tim Hardaway Dal 10 .500 9.8 5.0 .7 .8 .0 .0 .30
.01 Payton Pritchard Bos 12 .304 6.5 3.8 4.6 .5 1.9 .0 .10
-.06 Maxi Kleber Dal 16 .346 2.6 3.5 1.2 .5 .5 .4 -.36
shooting : Bos .558 - .539 Dal
rebounds: Dal 43.2 - 41.2 Bos
turnovers: 11.4 - 11.4
Code: Select all
. Bos mpg PER WS/48 BPM e480 . Dal mpg PER WS/48 BPM e480
Tatum 40 16.2 .085 2.9 1.52 Irving 39 13.1 .035 0.6 .87
Brown 39 15.6 .096 2.1 1.34 Dončić 39 21.4 .055 7.2 2.18
Holiday 38 16.2 .164 3.1 1.08 Washington 33 8.6 .043 -1.4 .48
White 37 13.8 .130 2.6 .82 Jones 23 11.7 .090 1.3 .36
Horford 30 13.9 .164 4.5 .80 Lively 23 15.9 .166 0.8 .99
Hauser 16 20.0 .257 7.9 1.37 Green 19 11.7 .130 2.7 .37
Pritchard 12 .5 -.124 -9.5 .10 Kleber 16 2.3 .010 -4.3 -.36
Porziņģis 12 22.2 .223 5.3 1.63 Gafford 15 28.4 .312 8.7 2.07
Tillman 4 18.0 .241 6.9 1.22 Hardaway 10 7.7 .061 -0.9 .30
Brissett 4 17.8 .230 5.2 .84 Exum 8 16.0 .167 5.2 1.23
Kornet 3 14.4 .212 2.5 .41 Hardy 7 21.0 .191 7.4 1.75
Mykhailiuk 3 - .8 -.187 -11.0 -.02 Powell 3 4.1 .043 -1.9 -.04
Springer 2 -1.9 -.046 -11.4 -.33 Morris 2 -4.2 -.217 -12.9 .12
Walsh 1 -13.8 -.323 -21.4 -.46 Lawson 2 4.2 .016 -4.0 -.96
Queta 1 24.1 .280 8.2 1.32 Prosper 2 -1.2 -.136 -6.4 .53
. totals 240 14.8 .125 2.51 1.08 . totals 240 13.7 .086 1.87 .92
Generic 'wins' are the avg of 4, once scaled to 5.00 totals:
Code: Select all
wins Bos min pW WS bW eW wins Dal min pW WS bW eW
.48 Tatum 201 .51 .34 .46 .64 .29 Irving 195 .35 .14 .32 .35
.44 Brown 193 .47 .36 .39 .54 .63 Dončić 195 .75 .21 .68 .89
.49 Holiday 189 .48 .61 .44 .42 .15 Washington 164 .12 .14 .18 .16
.39 White 184 .36 .47 .41 .31 .17 Jones 116 .17 .21 .21 .09
.36 Horford 150 .30 .49 .41 .25 .27 Lively 114 .28 .37 .19 .23
.29 Hauser 78 .27 .40 .29 .22 .17 Green 97 .14 .25 .22 .08
-.07 Pritchard 62 -.08 -.15 -.07 .01 -.02 Kleber 80 -.07 .01 .02 -.06
.22 Porziņģis 60 .24 .26 .18 .20 .37 Gafford 74 .41 .46 .29 .32
.07 Tillman 19 .06 .09 .06 .05 .04 Hardaway 48 .02 .06 .06 .03
.05 Brissett 18 .05 .08 .05 .03 .12 Exum 41 .10 .14 .12 .10
.03 Kornet 15 .03 .06 .03 .01 .12 Hardy 33 .12 .12 .12 .12
-.02 Mykhailiuk 14 -.02 -.05 -.02 .00 .00 Powell 15 -.01 .01 .01 .00
-.01 Springer 8 -.01 -.01 -.01 -.01 -.03 Morris 12 -.03 -.05 -.03 .00
-.02 Walsh 5 -.02 -.03 -.02 .00 .00 Lawson 11 .00 .00 .00 -.02
.02 Queta 5 .02 .03 .02 .01 -.01 Prosper 8 -.01 -.02 .00 .01
Ironically, none of the 4 would give mvp to Brown, among the Celtics.
Re: 2024 Finals: Boston Celtics vs Dallas Mavericks
Posted: Tue Jun 18, 2024 2:12 pm
by Crow
"3 bad big minute pairs for Mavs are Doncic - Jones, Irving - Gafford and Washington - Lively."
Last night they went -14pts/100p, -31 and -41 respectively. Plenty of other big minute pairs lost. There was not much notable rotation change to my first look. I would have tried some major changes.
Doncic - Irving almost went to 40 minutes (39) as suggested but it went from biggest positive previously to -11pts / 100p.
They were thoroughly beat. The design and game plan were not near enough.
To beat the Celtics next season, look at what didn't work this playoffs, maybe what did in regular season and somewhat what did in past playoffs or might.
Re: 2024 Finals: Boston Celtics vs Dallas Mavericks
Posted: Tue Jun 18, 2024 8:03 pm
by Mike G
Game by game progression of cumulative stats; skimmed from previous posts..
Code: Select all
Tatum Brown Holiday
.PER WS/48 BPM e480 PER WS/48 BPM e480 PER WS/48 BPM e480
_8.5 -.007 -3.3 .66 24.9 .311 12.1 2.08 18.3 .314 5.9 1.44
_8.8 -.005 -2.7 .90 19.7 .192 6.2 1.66 26.3 .376 10.7 2.25
12.3 .034 -0.9 1.23 21.4 .199 6.4 1.94 20.6 .295 6.6 1.56
13.2 .011 -0.2 1.30 16.8 .094 3.0 1.40 17.0 .168 3.6 1.03
16.2 .085 2.9 1.52 15.6 .096 2.1 1.34 16.2 .164 3.1 1.08
The stats diverge wildly; but in each one, Tatum improves steadily while the others decline from hot starts.
Re: 2024 Finals: Boston Celtics vs Dallas Mavericks
Posted: Thu Jun 20, 2024 2:59 pm
by Mike G
Opening b-r.com I notice Derrick White led all players in Win Shares in the postseason.
It is very close between Luka and him. I wonder if the "block" on PJ Washington gave him the lead.
Down 5 in the final minute, PJ is going for a dunk, hotly pursued by both White and Brown. He misses it badly, lands awkwardly and goes careening out of bounds. Replay shows Brown giving him a sustained push in the back, a flagrant foul as it's not a play on the ball at all.
Two FT and the ball out would be a lot better than a fake block for D White. A ref right there on the baseline should have seen what I saw and probably more. They can reverse a foul call but not a non-call where play continues.
That was game 2. Next game, they call 2 fouls on Luka trying to defend Brown, who instigated contact both times. He could have gotten both fouls, but refs decided Luka was a bum on defense. or something.
I think the refs ruined these Finals. Celtics should be pissed, too.