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2024 Playoffs Conf. Finals
Posted: Wed May 22, 2024 10:56 am
by Mike G
Previews for future reference. B-R.com "advanced" rates thru 2 rounds:
Code: Select all
. Bos mpg PER WS/48 BPM . Ind mpg PER WS/48 BPM
Tatum 39 22.2 .224 5.1 Siakam 35 21.2 .154 2.2
Holiday 37 12.8 .147 1.6 Haliburton 35 22.0 .170 5.7
Brown 35 20.0 .149 1.7 Nesmith 33 10.4 .067 -2.8
White 34 20.0 .238 6.1 Turner 32 19.9 .147 3.4
Horford 29 14.8 .172 2.4 Nembhard 32 14.8 .123 -0.7
Pritchard 23 12.5 .147 -0.1 McConnell 19 20.0 .110 1.5
Hauser 15 13.3 .172 2.0 Sheppard 19 10.8 .078 -0.6
Porziņģis 11 18.6 .213 4.2 Toppin 19 20.6 .158 3.2
Kornet 10 18.9 .252 2.1 Jackson 9 20.4 .194 0.2
Tillman 3 16.6 .262 6.8 McDermott 3 1.1 -.065 -7.7
Mykhailiuk 2 -6.5 -.213 -13.4 J Smith 3 12.0 .081 -5.1
Brissett 2 14.0 .034 -3.7 Walker 2 -2.3 -.295 -11.6
Springer 1 9.1 .035 0.4 K Brown 2 -3.1 -.224 -14.5
Queta 1 13.6 .146 -4.3 Johnson 0 -30.7 -1.305 -51.6
Walsh 1 15.9 .201 2.1
Code: Select all
. Dal mpg PER WS/48 BPM . Min mpg PER WS/48 BPM
Dončić 42 20.3 .140 5.9 Edwards 40 24.3 .219 8.4
Irving 40 17.2 .142 3.8 McDaniels 34 14.2 .154 2.1
Washington 35 13.3 .107 1.9 Towns 32 20.6 .207 4.6
Jones 31 12.5 .105 0.8 Gobert 31 17.0 .185 1.8
Lively 22 17.8 .162 1.5 Conley 29 14.1 .141 2.2
Gafford 21 18.0 .149 1.1 A-Walker 27 9.7 .081 -0.5
Green 17 13.8 .158 3.1 Reid 21 14.7 .120 0.7
Kleber 10 12.6 .146 3.8 Anderson 11 13.7 .131 1.6
Hardaway 10 10.6 .068 -1.3 Morris 6 6.8 -.003 -5.7
Exum 7 2.4 -.074 -8.7 McLaughlin 2 -2.2 -.168 -13.2
Hardy 4 7.5 -.059 -7.1 Garza 2 42.8 .517 21.7
Lawson 1 19.0 .186 6.7 Minott 1 12.0 .116 1.2
Powell 1 10.2 .171 -2.5 Moore 1 1.1 -.083 -6.5
Prosper 0 .0 .005 -8.5 Warren 1 4.2 -.012 -4.6
. Miller 0 -3.7 -.167 -15.0
Well the double-digit BPM's are all gone (Jokic, LeBron, Shai), as are the .230+ WS/48 (Jokic, Davis, Shai) and the 25+ PER (Jokic, Davis, Embiid, LeBron, Shai, Lillard). Ant. Edwards is next up in all 3
Superstar-free playoffs from here on? At least some deep teams.
Re: 2024 Playoffs Conf. Finals
Posted: Wed May 22, 2024 12:10 pm
by Mike G
Celtics 1 - 0 Pacers
133 - 128 in OT
Pythagorean wins .62 - .38 , eWins .56 - .44
Code: Select all
eWin per36 rates tm min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e530
.17 Jayson Tatum Bos 45 .563 27.1 10.8 2.9 2.4 3.5 .0 1.96
.15 Jrue Holiday Bos 49 .778 24.0 5.8 5.4 2.2 3.2 .0 1.62
.11 Ty. Haliburton Ind 41 .641 21.8 3.0 6.6 2.6 3.7 .9 1.48
.11 Myles Turner Ind 39 .821 24.8 10.5 2.8 .0 5.1 1.9 1.53
.11 Jaylen Brown Bos 44 .542 19.1 6.4 3.7 2.5 2.7 .8 1.34
.11 Pascal Siakam Ind 42 .522 16.7 11.7 4.5 .9 2.4 .0 1.37
.08 Derrick White Bos 42 .536 11.2 5.8 7.1 1.7 1.9 .9 1.04
.06 Obi Toppin Ind 22 .833 28.6 7.0 2.3 1.5 6.4 .0 1.35
.04 T.J. McConnell Ind 25 .542 15.2 4.7 4.1 1.4 1.9 .0 .83
.03 Al Horford Bos 40 .455 8.2 6.1 .8 .0 .0 2.7 .45
eWin per36 rates tm min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e530
.03 Andrew Nembhard Ind 35 .600 11.1 3.5 5.4 .0 1.4 .0 .48
.02 Luke Kornet Bos 13 .714 12.2 11.4 2.3 .0 .0 .0 .99
.01 Payton Pritchard Bos 23 1.00 13.2 .0 2.7 .0 .0 .0 .26
-.01 Aaron Nesmith Ind 40 .560 10.9 6.1 .7 1.8 6.3 .0 -.10
-.02 Sam Hauser Bos 9 .000 .0 4.1 .0 .0 3.9 .0 -1.04
-.02 Ben Sheppard Ind 17 .250 1.9 6.7 3.0 .0 5.5 .0 -.60
shooting : Ind .615 - .583 Bos
rebounds: Ind 44 - 43 Bos
turnovers
: Bos 15 - 22 Ind
Code: Select all
. Bos min PER WS/48 BPM e480 . Ind min PER WS/48 BPM e480
Holiday 49 25.6 .284 9.3 1.62 Siakam 42 17.7 .083 1.0 1.37
Tatum 45 22.2 .137 2.2 1.96 Haliburton 41 22.0 .170 10.5 1.48
Brown 44 18.2 .104 2.6 1.34 Nesmith 40 5.8 -.084 -7.5 -.10
White 42 15.5 .148 3.4 1.04 Turner 39 19.9 .135 6.9 1.53
Horford 40 9.9 .058 -1.7 .45 Nembhard 35 12.2 .084 0.6 .48
Pritchard 23 13.6 .180 3.2 .26 McConnell 25 16.7 .099 0.4 .83
Kornet 13 19.8 .217 3.8 .99 Toppin 22 20.6 .109 5.6 1.35
Hauser 9 -19.4 -.414 -22.1 -1.04 Sheppard 17 -4.8 -.187 -14.6 -.60
. Jackson 4 5.9 -.009 0.2 -.07
. totals 265 17.0 .137 2.5 1.13 . totals 265 14.7 .066 1.4 .87
Re: 2024 Playoffs Conf. Finals
Posted: Thu May 23, 2024 11:59 am
by Mike G
Mavs 1 - 0 Wolves
108 - 105
Pyth wins .59 - .41 , eWins .54-.46
Code: Select all
eWin per36 rates tm min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.22 Luka Dončić Dal 40 .559 31.5 5.5 6.4 2.8 3.6 .9 2.59
.14 Kyrie Irving Dal 41 .577 26.6 4.4 3.1 .0 1.8 .9 1.63
.13 Anthony Edwards Min 41 .559 16.7 9.7 6.6 1.7 3.8 .0 1.52
.11 Dereck Lively Dal 27 1.00 17.0 14.2 3.4 .0 1.3 2.6 1.96
.10 Jaden McDaniels Min 39 .800 27.3 3.7 2.6 .9 4.0 .0 1.29
.08 Naz Reid Min 24 .682 25.0 7.2 2.7 1.4 4.1 1.4 1.63
.06 Daniel Gafford Dal 21 .556 16.6 15.7 .0 .0 3.5 1.7 1.28
.05 Rudy Gobert Min 37 .545 9.9 6.9 .9 1.0 .0 2.0 .70
.05 Kyle Anderson Min 17 .688 22.6 4.0 3.8 .0 .0 .0 1.42
.04 Karl-A Towns Min 34 .381 11.6 7.5 2.0 1.0 1.5 .0 .61
eWin per36 rates tm min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.03 Jaden Hardy Dal 9 .500 7.8 3.7 13.1 3.9 .0 .0 1.68
.01 Tim Hardaway Dal 10 --- .0 13.4 .0 3.5 .0 .0 .45
.01 P.J. Washington Dal 41 .565 10.2 6.2 .0 .0 2.7 1.8 .11
.00 Mike Conley Min 30 .333 4.8 3.7 3.4 2.4 1.7 .0 .03
-.01 Derrick Jones Dal 35 .444 5.6 4.2 1.8 .0 .0 .0 -.08
-.01 Nickeil A-W Min 16 .167 1.6 2.1 4.0 .0 .0 .0 -.36
-.01 Josh Green Dal 14 .375 4.8 2.4 .0 .0 2.4 2.4 -.51
shooting : Dal .565 - .536 Min
rebounds: Dal 48 - 40 Min
turnovers: Min 10 - 13 Dal
Code: Select all
. Dal min PER WS/48 BPM e480 . Min min PER WS/48 BPM e480
Irving 41 19.8 .167 2.5 1.63 Edwards 41 18.4 .125 7.2 1.52
Wash'ton 41 6.5 .016 -4.9 .11 McDaniels 39 19.4 .164 7.3 1.29
Dončić 40 25.9 .167 11.4 2.59 Gobert 37 13.9 .134 0.8 .70
Jones 35 7.9 .059 -3.8 -.08 Towns 34 8.0 -.057 -5.7 .61
Lively 27 26.4 .311 11.1 1.96 Conley 30 3.5 -.048 -6.1 .03
Gafford 21 18.0 .059 -5.3 1.28 Reid 24 22.1 .162 8.1 1.63
Green 14 - .4 -.126 -8.0 -.51 Anderson 17 23.3 .291 6.4 1.42
Hardaway 10 10.6 .156 2.5 .45 Ni. A-W 16 -4.1 -.215 -14.3 -.36
Hardy 9 24.6 .330 16.5 1.68
.totals 238 15.8 .120 1.9 1.08 . totals 238 13.7 .078 1.3 .92
Re: 2024 Playoffs Conf. Finals
Posted: Fri May 24, 2024 12:10 pm
by Mike G
Celtics 2 - 0 Pacers
avg score 129.5 - 119.0
Pyth wins 1.51 - .49 , eWins 1.25 - .75
Code: Select all
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e505
.30 Jaylen Brown Bos 41 .584 27.9 6.0 2.9 1.8 2.5 .5 1.86
.28 Jrue Holiday Bos 43 .860 22.6 4.8 7.0 1.3 2.4 .0 1.69
.24 Jayson Tatum Bos 44 .546 22.3 8.3 3.4 1.2 3.7 .0 1.40
.24 Pascal Siakam Ind 37 .650 23.6 9.8 3.3 .5 2.5 .0 1.67
.23 Derrick White Bos 40 .623 16.7 5.2 6.3 1.4 1.0 .9 1.46
.20 Ty. Haliburton Ind 35 .636 17.2 4.3 7.1 2.2 2.0 .5 1.46
.10 Myles Turner Ind 32 .738 18.5 9.3 1.7 .6 5.9 1.2 .84
.10 Andrew Nembhard Ind 31 .583 14.4 3.4 5.3 .6 1.5 .0 .80
.08 Al Horford Bos 33 .467 7.3 10.0 .5 1.1 .6 1.7 .64
.08 Obi Toppin Ind 22 .765 20.9 6.2 1.1 .8 3.9 .8 .94
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e505
.07 T.J. McConnell Ind 21 .500 13.9 7.3 4.1 .8 3.0 .0 .79
.06 Payton Pritchard Bos 21 .909 18.3 1.8 2.9 .0 .9 .0 .73
.03 Oshae Brissett Bos 6 1.00 6.4 8.8 .0 7.7 .0 .0 1.07
.02 Luke Kornet Bos 9 .714 8.8 11.5 1.6 .0 1.9 .0 .50
.00 Sam Hauser Bos 16 .143 .6 6.8 2.8 2.0 1.1 1.0 .06
.00 Isaiah Jackson Ind 11 .375 2.2 8.6 .0 .0 .0 1.5 .01
-.01 Doug McDermott Ind 6 .500 3.3 .0 2.0 .0 .0 2.6 -.23
-.01 Aaron Nesmith Ind 33 .561 10.6 5.8 .8 1.2 5.0 .0 -.11
-.03 Ben Sheppard Ind 20 .429 4.9 4.8 1.8 .0 3.2 .0 -.44
shooting : Bos .611 - .607 Ind
rebounds: Bos 41.5 - 40.5 Ind
turnovers:
Bos 13.5 - 19.0 Ind
Code: Select all
. Bos mpg PER WS/48 BPM e505 . Ind mpg PER WS/48 BPM e505
Tatum 44 16.2 .077 -2.5 1.40 Siakam 37 23.4 .132 5.1 1.67
Holiday 43 25.1 .313 10.7 1.69 Haliburton 35 22.0 .170 9.5 1.46
Brown 41 23.7 .170 2.2 1.86 Nesmith 33 5.1 -.099 -8.1 -.11
White 40 20.5 .243 6.6 1.46 Turner 32 13.0 -.007 0.3 .84
Horford 33 12.1 .075 -1.4 .64 Nembhard 31 15.6 .084 1.6 .80
Pritchard 21 18.3 .224 4.4 .73 Toppin 22 18.6 .070 3.9 .94
Hauser 16 1.1 -.062 -5.8 .06 McConnell 21 13.7 -.002 -3.4 .79
Kornet 9 13.7 .095 -1.2 .50 Sheppard 20 2.9 -.102 -8.5 -.44
Brissett 6 23.1 .300 14.3 1.07 Jackson 11 9.0 .010 -4.9 .01
Tillman 2 -1.5 -.050 -3.3 -.99 McDermott 6 8.9 .025 2.1 -.23
. J Smith 4 15.0 .027 -0.9 .67
. totals 253 18.6 .172 3.04 1.25 . totals 253 14.5 .036 0.36 .75
Re: 2024 Playoffs Conf. Finals
Posted: Sat May 25, 2024 1:50 pm
by Mike G
Mavs 2 - 0 Wolves
avg score 108.5 - 106.5
Pyth wins 1.12 - .88 , eWins 1.06 - .94
Code: Select all
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.41 Luka Dončić Dal 41 .580 30.2 7.2 8.4 1.3 3.6 .4 2.42
.22 Anthony Edwards Min 41 .513 16.9 7.5 6.7 .9 3.1 .5 1.30
.21 Kyrie Irving Dal 40 .562 22.5 4.2 4.1 .5 1.8 .5 1.28
.21 Dereck Lively Dal 27 1.00 20.7 12.9 2.9 .0 .6 1.3 1.86
.18 Naz Reid Min 28 .792 27.7 4.5 1.2 1.8 2.5 1.2 1.58
.17 Daniel Gafford Dal 21 .650 22.1 12.2 .0 .0 1.7 5.1 1.92
.16 Rudy Gobert Min 38 .583 12.6 8.6 1.4 1.5 .0 1.5 1.04
.13 Karl-A Towns Min 30 .383 13.5 8.8 3.0 1.8 .8 .0 1.08
.10 Kyle Anderson Min 19 .600 16.2 6.4 6.1 .0 .0 .0 1.28
.10 Mike Conley Min 32 .490 12.4 4.8 4.6 1.7 2.4 .6 .73
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.06 Jaden Hardy Dal 11 .556 15.9 3.1 6.8 3.1 1.5 .0 1.26
.05 Jaden McDaniels Min 38 .619 12.7 4.5 2.4 .5 3.3 1.0 .33
.02 P.J. Washington Dal 40 .489 8.4 5.6 .0 .5 1.8 1.8 .11
.01 Josh Green Dal 18 .500 6.5 6.7 .9 1.9 1.9 1.0 .20
-.00 Tim Hardaway Dal 8 .000 .0 8.5 .0 2.1 .0 .0 -.10
-.01 Nickeil A-W Min 16 .364 6.2 2.2 4.2 .0 2.9 1.1 -.13
-.02 Derrick Jones Dal 34 .400 4.5 4.4 1.5 1.1 .5 .0 -.11
shooting : Dal .577 - .543 Min
rebounds: Dal 46.0 - 40.0 Min
turnovers: Min 9.5 - 11.5 Dal
Code: Select all
. Min mpg PER WS/48 BPM e480 . Dal mpg PER WS/48 BPM e480
Edwards 41 15.9 .090 3.9 1.30 Dončić 41 26.8 .197 11.6 2.42
McDaniels 38 8.9 .012 -0.9 .33 Irving 40 17.3 .121 1.7 1.28
Gobert 38 17.6 .185 1.8 1.04 Washington 40 6.3 -.001 -5.8 .11
Conley 32 11.6 .037 -0.9 .73 Jones 34 5.4 .015 -5.7 -.11
Towns 30 11.6 -.015 -3.0 1.08 Lively 27 27.2 .342 10.2 1.86
Reid 28 24.4 .217 11.9 1.58 Gafford 21 27.0 .191 3.9 1.92
Anderson 19 18.7 .226 3.7 1.28 Green 18 9.7 .040 -0.4 .20
Ni. A-W 16 3.3 -.154 -8.0 -.13 Hardy 11 19.9 .189 8.7 1.26
. Hardaway 8 1.1 -.053 -7.4 -.10
. Exum 3 -7.5 -.190 -15.9 -.95
. totals 240 14.3 .081 1.46 .94 . totals 240 16.2 .118 1.94 1.06
Re: 2024 Playoffs Conf. Finals
Posted: Sat May 25, 2024 2:58 pm
by Crow
5 of top 8 by eWins and 5 of 10 by e480 are... Centers.
Teams wanting to beat these 2 teams in future playoffs should seriously consider the match-up approach. Personnel, style of play, detailed tactics.
Re: 2024 Playoffs Conf. Finals
Posted: Sun May 26, 2024 11:13 am
by Mike G
Celtics 3 - 0 Pacers
avg score 124.3 - 116.3
Pyth wins 2.12 - .88 , eWins 1.81 - 1.19
Code: Select all
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e497
.50 Jayson Tatum Bos 44 .576 24.6 8.7 4.4 1.1 2.6 .6 1.86
.38 Jaylen Brown Bos 40 .588 25.7 4.9 2.9 1.5 2.1 .6 1.60
.36 Jrue Holiday Bos 41 .760 19.2 6.4 5.8 1.7 2.8 .3 1.45
.33 Pascal Siakam Ind 36 .617 22.4 7.6 3.8 .7 2.1 .0 1.50
.33 Derrick White Bos 38 .573 14.7 5.4 6.6 .9 .7 1.9 1.42
.26 Andrew Nembhard Ind 34 .638 20.6 3.7 5.7 .4 1.8 .0 1.26
.21 Ty. Haliburton Ind 23 .636 17.7 4.2 7.2 2.3 2.0 .5 1.50
.20 T.J. McConnell Ind 24 .563 18.8 9.0 4.6 1.0 2.3 .0 1.43
.18 Al Horford Bos 33 .603 12.0 8.6 .3 1.0 .9 2.2 .88
.16 Myles Turner Ind 34 .679 19.0 9.7 1.3 .4 5.7 .7 .78
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e497
.07 Obi Toppin Ind 22 .652 14.3 5.7 1.9 .5 3.1 .5 .49
.06 Payton Pritchard Bos 19 .786 14.1 2.6 3.8 .0 1.4 .0 .51
.02 Isaiah Jackson Ind 10 .313 2.3 11.6 .0 .0 .0 2.1 .31
.02 Luke Kornet Bos 6 .714 8.7 11.5 1.6 .0 2.0 .0 .49
.02 Oshae Brissett Bos 7 1.00 3.3 6.6 .0 4.2 .0 1.5 .40
.01 Doug McDermott Ind 5 .667 7.1 2.1 4.3 .0 .0 1.9 .35
-.01 Aaron Nesmith Ind 33 .551 8.2 5.8 1.7 1.2 3.6 .0 -.07
-.02 Sam Hauser Bos 15 .100 .3 5.6 2.0 1.4 .8 .7 -.21
-.02 Xavier Tillman Bos 6 1.00 4.4 2.0 .0 1.7 2.1 .0 -.55
-.06 Ben Sheppard Ind 22 .310 2.4 4.7 1.6 .6 1.9 .0 -.48
shooting : Bos .615 - .598 Ind
rebounds: Ind 41.3 - 39.7 Bos
turnovers:
Bos 12.0 - 16.3 Ind
Code: Select all
. Bos mpg PER WS/48 BPM e480 . Ind mpg PER WS/48 BPM e480
Tatum 44 21.8 .164 2.3 1.86 Siakam 36 21.7 .133 4.8 1.50
Holiday 41 22.4 .239 7.2 1.45 Turner 34 12.2 -.022 -1.7 .79
Brown 40 22.0 .153 1.3 1.60 Nembhard 34 19.9 .149 4.9 1.26
White 38 19.2 .218 5.3 1.42 Nesmith 33 5.1 -.049 -6.0 -.07
Horford 33 17.5 .149 2.4 .88 McConnell 24 20.9 .110 2.9 1.43
Pritchard 19 14.0 .142 0.9 .51 Haliburton 23 21.2 .147 9.5 1.50
Hauser 15 -2.4 -.117 -10.3 -.21 Sheppard 22 .3 -.093 -9.2 -.48
Brissett 7 14.2 .208 5.5 .40 Toppin 22 12.5 .016 0.4 .49
Kornet 6 13.0 .062 -1.2 .49 Jackson 10 9.0 -.010 -5.5 .31
Tillman 6 4.0 .012 -5.3 -.55 McDermott 5 16.7 .168 7.6 .35
. totals 248 18.2 .161 2.5 1.21 . totals 243 14.3 .049 0.6 .79
Re: 2024 Playoffs Conf. Finals
Posted: Mon May 27, 2024 2:20 pm
by Mike G
Mavs 3 - 0 Wolves
avg score 111.0 - 106.7
Pyth wins 1.89 - 1.11 , eWins 1.69 - 1.31
Code: Select all
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.68 Luka Dončić Dal 41 .605 30.4 7.6 7.3 2.3 3.3 .6 2.65
.38 Kyrie Irving Dal 41 .606 25.3 4.0 3.9 .6 2.4 .3 1.48
.33 Anthony Edwards Min 41 .500 17.5 8.2 6.3 1.2 4.5 .3 1.29
.29 Dereck Lively Dal 21 1.00 21.2 13.9 3.6 .0 .5 1.6 2.19
.22 Naz Reid Min 28 .722 22.0 4.6 1.5 1.3 1.9 .8 1.22
.21 Rudy Gobert Min 35 .638 12.4 9.0 1.6 1.1 .5 1.1 .96
.20 Karl-A Towns Min 33 .369 11.2 10.2 2.6 1.1 .6 .0 .98
.18 Daniel Gafford Dal 24 .633 15.8 9.7 .5 .0 2.6 4.6 1.23
.15 Mike Conley Min 32 .563 14.3 3.8 4.1 1.6 2.3 .4 .76
.15 Kyle Anderson Min 18 .667 18.5 4.8 5.5 .0 1.9 1.2 1.27
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.09 P.J. Washington Dal 40 .549 9.9 6.8 .6 .3 1.2 1.2 .36
.08 Jaden McDaniels Min 36 .707 13.9 3.8 1.5 .7 2.6 .7 .35
.08 Jaden Hardy Dal 11 .567 17.6 4.5 4.8 2.0 2.0 .0 1.17
.01 Josh Green Dal 20 .611 6.0 5.7 1.6 1.1 1.7 .6 .04
-.00 Tim Hardaway Dal 5 .000 .0 9.5 .0 2.1 .0 .0 -.03
-.00 Derrick Jones Dal 34 .575 7.4 4.0 1.7 .7 1.1 .0 -.01
-.03 Nickeil A-W Min 17 .367 5.2 2.9 4.1 .0 3.0 .7 -.24
shooting : Dal .617 - .555 Min
rebounds: Dal 41.3 - 37.7 Min
turnovers: Min 9.7 - 12.3 Dal
Code: Select all
. Min mpg PER WS/48 BPM e480 . Dal mpg PER WS/48 BPM e480
Edwards 41 16.6 .046 2.9 1.29 Dončić 41 28.6 .237 12.5 2.65
McDaniels 36 11.6 .057 1.2 .35 Irving 41 19.8 .137 1.8 1.48
Gobert 35 17.0 .164 1.4 .96 Washington 40 9.6 .061 -2.7 .36
Towns 33 9.6 -.046 -5.1 .98 Jones 34 7.4 .054 -2.4 -.01
Conley 32 13.7 .070 1.3 .76 Gafford 24 17.5 .090 -0.7 1.23
Reid 28 21.3 .179 8.5 1.22 Lively 21 30.2 .377 11.8 2.19
Anderson 18 20.3 .201 5.4 1.27 Green 20 8.5 .056 0.4 .04
Ni. A-W 17 2.8 -.139 -7.4 -.24 Hardy 11 16.8 .138 1.0 1.17
. Hardaway 5 1.9 -.071 -7.4 -.03
. Powell 3 6.8 .064 -8.8 .48
. Exum 2 -1.2 -.125 -8.7 -.59
. totals 240 14.4 .068 1.24 .87 . totals 240 16.8 .132 2.37 1.13
Re: 2024 Playoffs Conf. Finals
Posted: Tue May 28, 2024 12:10 pm
by Mike G
Celtics 4 - 0 Pacers
avg score 119.5 - 112.8
Pyth wins 2.74 - 1.26 , eWins 2.37 - 1.63
Code: Select all
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e493
.66 Jayson Tatum Bos 44 .555 23.5 9.4 5.0 1.0 3.2 .4 1.85
.53 Jaylen Brown Bos 41 .586 25.1 4.9 2.6 1.7 2.4 .7 1.59
.46 Derrick White Bos 39 .573 14.2 4.9 5.8 1.8 .6 2.1 1.45
.44 Jrue Holiday Bos 40 .725 18.2 6.9 5.0 1.3 2.4 .2 1.36
.43 Andrew Nembhard Ind 35 .641 21.4 4.3 6.4 .6 1.9 .3 1.52
.41 Pascal Siakam Ind 37 .578 20.1 8.0 3.5 .5 2.0 .0 1.36
.27 T.J. McConnell Ind 24 .526 17.5 8.2 4.6 1.1 1.7 .0 1.38
.26 Al Horford Bos 35 .614 11.0 8.3 1.5 1.0 .6 1.9 .90
.23 Ty. Haliburton Ind 17 .636 17.8 4.0 7.5 2.3 1.6 .5 1.63
.16 Myles Turner Ind 32 .663 17.0 8.6 1.3 .3 4.9 .6 .61
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e493
.11 Obi Toppin Ind 24 .656 13.7 6.3 1.9 .7 2.4 .3 .57
.06 Payton Pritchard Bos 16 .794 14.2 2.6 3.2 .0 1.1 .0 .47
.03 Aaron Nesmith Ind 34 .532 9.0 5.9 1.5 1.2 2.2 .0 .12
.03 Isaiah Jackson Ind 11 .375 3.5 11.4 .0 .0 .7 2.8 .37
.03 Doug McDermott Ind 7 .875 8.0 2.2 4.7 .0 .0 2.0 .47
.01 Luke Kornet Bos 5 .714 8.3 10.4 1.5 .0 1.9 .0 .40
.01 Oshae Brissett Bos 5 1.00 3.2 6.1 .0 4.0 .0 1.4 .31
-.03 Sam Hauser Bos 15 .206 1.6 4.5 2.0 1.0 1.2 1.0 -.27
-.04 Xavier Tillman Bos 6 .333 1.4 3.7 .0 1.1 2.7 .0 -.83
-.08 Ben Sheppard Ind 22 .324 2.6 4.7 1.2 .8 1.2 .0 -.44
shooting : Bos .600 - .585 Ind
rebounds: Ind 42.8 - 40.8 Bos
turnovers: Bos 12.3 - 15.8 Ind
Code: Select all
. Bos mpg PER WS/48 BPM e480 . Ind mpg PER WS/48 BPM e480
Tatum 44 19.9 .133 1.5 1.85 Siakam 37 19.2 .097 2.6 1.36
Brown 41 21.3 .143 1.7 1.59 Nembhard 35 21.6 .171 6.9 1.52
Holiday 40 20.4 .216 5.2 1.36 Nesmith 34 7.1 -.008 -4.5 .12
White 39 20.0 .222 6.7 1.45 Turner 32 9.7 -.036 -3.4 .61
Horford 35 16.6 .172 3.0 .90 Toppin 24 13.1 .040 1.1 .57
Pritchard 16 15.2 .165 1.3 .47 McConnell 24 19.6 .088 2.2 1.38
Hauser 15 -1.3 -.113 -10.2 -.27 Sheppard 22 1.2 -.057 -7.9 -.44
Tillman 6 .6 -.064 -10.4 -.83 Haliburton 17 21.2 .147 9.5 1.63
Brissett 5 14.2 .207 5.5 .31 Jackson 11 11.6 .029 -4.9 .37
Kornet 5 12.3 .049 -1.2 .40 McDermott 7 17.7 .217 10.4 .47
. totals 246 17.5 .152 2.29 1.19 . totals 243 14.1 .058 0.64 .81
Re: 2024 Playoffs Conf. Finals
Posted: Tue May 28, 2024 1:27 pm
by Mike G
Jaylen Brown got the ECF mvp trophy. Looking above, maybe only PER would support that.
Here we have 4 summary stats, scaled to 4.0 total 'wins', averaged:
Code: Select all
xyzW player tm min perW WS bpmW eW
.54 Derrick White Bos 156 .45 .67 .57 .45
.53 Jrue Holiday Bos 161 .48 .67 .51 .45
.49 Jayson Tatum Bos 175 .50 .45 .36 .66
.46 Andrew Nembhard Ind 139 .44 .46 .51 .43
.46 Jaylen Brown Bos 163 .51 .45 .34 .53
.36 Pascal Siakam Ind 149 .40 .28 .35 .40
.34 Al Horford Bos 139 .31 .46 .35 .24
.24 Tyrese Haliburton Ind 69 .22 .20 .31 .23
.23 T.J. McConnell Ind 96 .27 .16 .22 .28
.13 Payton Pritchard Bos 65 .12 .21 .13 .07
.13 Obi Toppin Ind 96 .14 .07 .18 .11
.09 Doug McDermott Ind 29 .07 .12 .14 .03
.06 Myles Turner Ind 129 .10 -.09 .07 .15
.05 Oshae Brissett Bos 21 .04 .08 .07 .01
.03 Isaiah Jackson Ind 42 .05 .02 .00 .03
.02 Luke Kornet Bos 18 .02 .02 .02 .02
.02 Aaron Nesmith Ind 134 .04 -.02 .03 .03
.01 Jalen Smith Ind 7 .01 .00 .01 .01
.00 Jarace Walker Ind 5 .01 -.01 -.00 .01
.00 Kendall Brown Ind 4 -.00 -.01 .01 -.01
-.03 Xavier Tillman Bos 25 -.03 -.03 -.04 -.04
-.08 Ben Sheppard Ind 87 -.08 -.10 -.07 -.08
-.08 Sam Hauser Bos 59 -.08 -.13 -.09 -.03
PER likes Brown by a whisker; eWins says Tatum by a lot; BPM says White by a good bit; WS prefers White, Holiday -- and Horford.
Both teams eventually went 10 deep in non-garbage time. Correlations between minutes and stats at top 7, 8, 9, and 10 are taken and then averaged (bottom line).
Code: Select all
all 1thru PER WS/48 BPM e480
.77 7 .81 .63 .70 .93
.86 8 .88 .76 .82 .96
.67 9 .76 .50 .53 .90
.65 10 .71 .52 .52 .86
.74 Bos .79 .60 .64 .92
all 1thru PER WS/48 BPM e480
.41 7 .41 .40 .39 .44
.01 8 .07 .02 -.12 .06
.13 9 .13 .08 .13 .18
-.07 10 .00 -.27 -.20 .20
.12 Ind .15 .06 .05 .22
Haliburton is Ind #8 and torpedoes the overall correlation. Then, to a couple of stats, McDermott looked like Pacers' #1 player at #10 in minutes.
Re: 2024 Playoffs Conf. Finals
Posted: Tue May 28, 2024 7:25 pm
by Crow
Celtics best thru 8. Pacers 7.
Re: 2024 Playoffs Conf. Finals
Posted: Wed May 29, 2024 12:00 pm
by Mike G
Mavs
3 - 1 Wolves
avg score 108.3 - 106.3
Pyth wins 2.25 - 1.75 , eWins 2.12 - 1.88
Code: Select all
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.93 Luka Dončić Dal 41 .583 28.9 9.5 7.7 2.0 3.2 .4 2.73
.53 Anthony Edwards Min 41 .500 19.3 8.5 6.6 .9 3.6 .2 1.53
.37 Kyrie Irving Dal 41 .563 21.4 3.5 3.8 .7 2.7 .2 1.09
.32 Dereck Lively Dal 16 1.00 23.5 14.2 3.7 .0 .6 1.6 2.42
.30 Daniel Gafford Dal 26 .705 16.4 10.1 .7 .4 1.8 4.3 1.39
.29 Mike Conley Min 32 .581 15.0 3.8 4.9 2.3 1.2 .3 1.07
.28 Karl-A Towns Min 32 .464 15.7 9.5 2.3 .9 1.5 .0 1.06
.26 Rudy Gobert Min 36 .649 12.9 9.3 1.4 .8 .8 1.0 .88
.26 Naz Reid Min 26 .682 20.0 5.5 1.5 1.0 1.4 1.0 1.19
.18 Kyle Anderson Min 20 .625 13.8 5.2 5.4 1.3 .9 .9 1.10
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.14 Jaden Hardy Dal 11 .652 25.7 4.3 3.7 1.5 2.3 .0 1.53
.07 Jaden McDaniels Min 37 .689 12.2 3.0 1.1 .7 1.3 .7 .24
.05 P.J. Washington Dal 40 .495 8.1 6.4 .9 .2 1.2 1.1 .16
.02 Derrick Jones Dal 34 .593 8.1 4.6 2.3 .8 1.4 .0 .07
.02 Dante Exum Dal 3 .625 13.8 .0 2.8 2.9 .0 .0 .71
.00 Josh Green Dal 19 .615 6.9 5.0 1.7 1.3 1.8 .4 .03
.00 Nickeil A-Walker Min 16 .425 6.8 3.5 3.4 .5 2.2 1.1 .03
.00 Tim Hardaway Dal 4 .000 .0 9.9 .0 2.2 .0 .0 .01
-.01 Dwight Powell Dal 3 .333 3.8 6.7 .0 3.0 3.0 .0 -.45
-.02 Maxi Kleber Dal 4 .333 2.4 2.7 2.3 .0 .0 .0 -.59
shooting : Dal .601 - .569 Min
rebounds: Dal 40.5 - 38.3 Min
turnovers: Min 11.0 - 12.8 Dal
Code: Select all
. Min mpg PER WS/48 BPM e480 . Dal mpg PER WS/48 BPM e480
Edwards 41 16.2 .035 1.4 1.53 Irving 41 15.7 .075 -0.5 1.09
McDaniels 37 10.7 .066 0.7 .24 Dončić 41 27.3 .230 11.6 2.73
Gobert 36 15.3 .151 0.8 .88 Washington 40 8.2 .034 -3.6 .16
Conley 32 16.9 .137 4.3 1.07 Jones 34 8.4 .068 -1.1 .07
Towns 32 12.7 .014 -2.6 1.06 Gafford 26 19.7 .156 2.5 1.39
Reid 26 19.2 .145 6.1 1.19 Green 19 8.6 .058 0.1 .03
Anderson 20 18.7 .203 5.8 1.10 Lively 16 30.2 .377 11.8 2.42
Walker 16 5.2 -.095 -4.5 .03 Hardy 11 20.3 .179 4.7 1.53
. Hardaway 4 1.9 -.079 -7.4 .01
. Kleber 4 -6.2 -.071 -8.3 -.59
. Exum 3 19.0 .173 8.7 .71
. Powell 3 -1.1 -.088 -14.8 -.45
. totals 240 14.6 .084 1.55 .94 . totals 240 15.7 .120 2.10 1.06
Re: 2024 Playoffs Conf. Finals
Posted: Fri May 31, 2024 12:08 pm
by Mike G
Mavs 4 - 1 Wolves
avg score 111.4 - 105.6
Pyth wins 3.35 - 1.65 , eWins 2.93 - 2.07 :
Code: Select all
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
1.38 Luka Dončić Dal 40 .616 32.4 9.7 7.0 2.0 3.4 .4 3.30
.73 Anthony Edwards Min 42 .530 19.9 8.4 5.8 .9 3.2 .4 1.69
.60 Kyrie Irving Dal 41 .577 23.4 3.6 3.9 .5 2.2 .2 1.42
.49 Dereck Lively Dal 18 .927 22.8 13.3 3.6 .0 .8 2.3 2.65
.42 Karl-A Towns Min 33 .488 16.4 9.9 2.0 .9 1.6 .0 1.23
.41 Daniel Gafford Dal 24 .740 18.3 10.9 .5 .3 2.1 3.8 1.62
.31 Mike Conley Min 30 .581 14.0 4.2 4.3 2.4 1.3 .2 .98
.26 Rudy Gobert Min 34 .621 12.2 8.8 1.3 .8 1.1 .9 .75
.19 Naz Reid Min 26 .594 15.1 5.4 1.3 .8 2.0 1.0 .67
.16 Jaden Hardy Dal 10 .661 26.0 3.4 2.8 1.2 2.5 .0 1.48
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.15 Kyle Anderson Min 22 .561 10.4 4.6 4.4 1.2 1.0 .9 .64
.06 P.J. Washington Dal 39 .513 8.1 6.6 1.0 .6 1.3 .9 .14
.02 Jaden McDaniels Min 34 .686 11.8 2.8 .9 .6 1.4 1.1 .07
-.00 Dante Exum Dal 5 .500 4.5 4.3 2.4 1.3 .0 .0 -.04
-.00 Tim Hardaway Dal 3 .000 .0 9.1 .0 2.1 .0 .0 -.12
-.02 Dwight Powell Dal 3 .500 7.6 7.0 .0 2.1 4.3 .0 -.70
-.04 Maxi Kleber Dal 5 .417 4.2 3.1 1.3 1.4 1.4 .0 -.75
-.04 Josh Green Dal 19 .563 5.4 3.9 1.6 1.8 1.5 .4 -.21
-.05 Ni. A-Walker Min 16 .386 4.4 2.7 2.9 1.3 1.8 .8 -.34
-.06 Derrick Jones Dal 33 .561 6.7 4.1 2.2 .7 1.1 .2 -.17
shooting :
Dal .613 - .560 Min
rebounds: Dal 41.4 - 38.8 Min
turnovers: Min 11.6 - 12.8 Dal
Code: Select all
. Min mpg PER WS/48 BPM e480 . Dal mpg PER WS/48 BPM e480
Edwards 42 18.4 .069 3.1 1.69 Irving 41 18.3 .132 0.8 1.42
Gobert 34 14.6 .109 -0.3 .75 Dončić 40 28.9 .263 12.2 3.30
McDaniels 34 10.4 .049 0.5 .07 Washington 39 9.2 .056 -2.5 .14
Towns 33 15.9 .043 -1.1 1.23 Jones 33 8.0 .076 -1.1 -.17
Conley 30 16.6 .119 4.1 .98 Gafford 24 20.4 .189 2.3 1.62
Reid 26 13.9 .052 1.0 .67 Green 19 8.4 .069 0.6 -.21
Anderson 22 15.1 .133 3.0 .64 Lively 18 27.8 .356 11.4 2.65
A-Walker 16 4.9 -.108 -4.4 -.34 Hardy 10 20.2 .164 3.8 1.48
. Exum 5 11.0 .113 1.6 -.04
. Kleber 5 -1.8 -.047 -7.1 -.75
. Hardaway 3 1.9 -.053 -7.4 -.12
. Powell 3 .7 -.074 -14.1 -.70
. totals 237 14.4 .064 1.0 .83 . totals 239 16.4 .143 2.5 1.17