APBRmetrics

Posted: **Thu May 30, 2024 11:45 am**

Finals Preview: Celtics thru 3 rounds, per 36 minutes rates adjusted to standards of 100 points and 44 rebounds per team per game; and other standardizing tweaks.

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Al Horford                           
mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   3s   e480
26   .690   13.2  10.1   2.5    .7    .6   .3    6   1.15
32   .511    9.6  10.1   2.8    .4   1.3  1.2   10    .86
35   .614   11.0   8.3   1.5   1.0    .6  1.9   11    .90
Derrick White                           
mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   3s   e480
34   .737   31.0   4.1   3.6    .4   1.4  1.1   21   2.18
33   .526   14.1   5.1   4.9    .4    .5   .9   16   1.09
39   .573   14.2   4.9   5.8   1.8    .6  2.1   11   1.45
Jaylen Brown                           
mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   3s   e480
34   .559   27.9   8.1   2.5   1.0   3.8   .6    9   1.85
36   .665   27.4   7.2   2.9    .4   2.8   .4    9   1.78
41   .586   25.1   4.9   2.6   1.7   2.4   .7   10   1.59
Jayson Tatum                           
mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   3s   e480
38   .548   23.5  10.7   5.4    .4   1.9   .6    9   2.16
40   .556   24.6  10.9   5.7   1.3   2.5   .9    9   2.38
44   .555   23.5   9.4   5.0   1.0   3.2   .4   11   1.85
Jrue Holiday                           
mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   3s   e480
35   .464    8.2   5.3   4.8   1.3   1.6  1.0    7    .61
39   .613   12.9   5.7   3.7    .8   1.3   .6   10    .85
40   .725   18.2   6.9   5.0   1.3   2.4   .2   10   1.36
Porzingis rd1                           
21   .570   19.3   7.5   2.6   1.6   1.5  2.1    8   1.60
Luke Kornet                           
mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   3s   e480
5    .750    9.1  14.8   2.4    .0   1.3  1.2    0   1.10
15   .722   13.4  10.2    .9    .0   1.9  1.7    0    .88
5    .714    8.3  10.4   1.5    .0   1.9   .0    0    .40
Payton Pritchard                           
mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   3s   e480
23   .423    6.2   4.1   4.6    .3   1.3   .0    3    .10
23   .700   19.0   4.0   2.9    .5   1.7   .0   12    .99
16   .794   14.2   2.6   3.2    .0   1.1   .0    5    .47
Sam Hauser                           
mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   3s   e480
17   .690   18.3   4.5   1.2    .7    .0   .4   12   1.04
12   .625    7.2   4.6    .5    .0    .6   .0    3   -.15
15   .206    1.6   4.5   2.0   1.0   1.2  1.0    1   -.27
Xavier Tillman Sr.                           
mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   3s   e480
1   1.000   13.5   4.7   4.6   4.0    .0  4.4    0   1.88
4   1.000    5.0   9.4   1.6   1.4    .0   .0    0    .40
6    .333    1.4   3.7    .0   1.1   2.7   .0    0   -.83

Round 1, 2 went 5 games; rd 3 just 4 :

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Al Horford                          Luke Kornet            
Min   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480      Min   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
128   17.3   .242   4.9   1.15      27   19.1   .291    6.3   1.10
158   13.0   .115   0.4    .86      73   19.0   .238    0.5    .88
139   16.6   .172   3.0    .90      18   12.3   .049   -1.2    .40

Jayson Tatum                        Xavier Tillman Sr.            
Min   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480      Min   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
190   20.0   .226   3.6   2.16       7   30.4   .462   22.9   1.88
202   24.5   .224   6.5   2.38      18   11.2   .183    0.5    .40
175   19.9   .133   1.5   1.85      25     .6  -.064  -10.4   -.83

Jaylen Brown                        Sam Hauser            
Min   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480      Min   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
170   19.1   .108   0.6   1.85      85   17.6   .238    5.7   1.04
181   21.0   .189   2.7   1.78      61    7.3   .078   -3.2   -.15
163   21.3   .143   1.7   1.59      59   -1.3  -.113  -10.2   -.27

Derrick White                       Payton Pritchard            
Min   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480      Min   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
170   25.8   .321  10.3   2.18      115    6.5   .095  -4.9    .10
166   14.3   .153   1.8   1.09      113   18.8   .200   4.8    .99
156   20.0   .222   6.7   1.45       65   15.2   .165   1.3    .47

Jrue Holiday                              
Min   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480                  
177   10.8   .138   0.9    .61                  
193   14.8   .153   2.2    .85                  
161   20.4   .216   5.2   1.36

Numbers extracted by subtracting previous rounds from current rates given here:
https://www.basketball-reference.com/pl ... anced.html

Posted: **Thu May 30, 2024 1:27 pm**

Celtics are not looking as good to me as their record. Heavy dependence on White, Holiday and Mazzula. Will Porzingis' return help or hurt? Good chance that change will hurt because it gets more complicated. The bench is one guy and trouble or potential trouble.

Haven't studied matchup yet but they can be beaten.

Next season, good chance it is someone new again. In tune, one of top 6 or 10, but really in tune at the end.

Posted: **Thu May 30, 2024 1:41 pm**

Against Pacers, Celtics 2 biggest minute lineups were great... then next 5 negative and 7 of 9 negative. That was not so solid, against not that strong an opponent.

Mazzula's lineup choices and timing could again be critical. A few mistakes from good can make the difference.

The 10 most used pairs against Pacers were fine, the second 10 were garbage.

Posted: **Thu May 30, 2024 1:58 pm**

Celtics dominated 2 regular season matchups. Hot 3pt shooting among other things. Mavs were just meh with poor 3pt shooting and not much at all from FT line. Probably need to be more Moreyball.

3pt shooting and refereeing likely to matter a lot and perhaps some out of everything else.

Will one of the top 4 guys be the clear best performer? Will it be decided beyond the top 4?

Which team not playing learns the most, decides for the most future impact based on what they "see" in the finals?

Posted: **Thu May 30, 2024 2:22 pm**

Gafford negative in every pair but one tiny one. Kidd stays with him for continuity with overall success or cuts a weakness?

Who uses less of their playoff negatives or fixes some of them?

Posted: **Thu May 30, 2024 3:49 pm**

Celtics' changes from last year: Without Porzingis, they added Jrue Holiday.
They gave up their #3 in minutes, Marcus Smart; their #6, 7, and 8: Brogdon, Williams and Williams.
Huge regular season improvements from their deep bench have not carried over to the postseason.

If the Mavs make a quick finish of the WCF, they get some much needed rest and recovery. Boston looks pretty soft inside vs the twin Bigs of Dallas.

Posted: **Sun Jun 02, 2024 6:01 pm**

Round by round 'team BPM' = aggregate player BPM * 4.1

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Dallas Mavs        Boston Celts
opp.    BPM    rd    BPM    opp
LAC    9.24    1   13.00    Mia
OKC    9.00    2    9.36    Cle
Min    9.88    3    9.16    Ind
avg    9.37        10.51    avg

Celts' advantage of 1.15 pts/G gives a Pythagorean Win% of .538, or 3.77 of 7.

However, in the last 2 rounds -- particularly the latest one -- Dallas has been better vs the competition.
Dallas' main guys are also peaking.

Posted: **Sun Jun 02, 2024 8:31 pm**

A side by side progression with Regular-season rates (R) and in 3 rounds of playoffs.

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.  Luka Dončić                          Jayson Tatum      
mpg   PER   WS/48   BPM      rd     mpg   PER   WS/48   BPM
37   28.1   .220    9.9      R      36   22.3   .189    5.1
43   21.8   .153    4.8      1      38   20.0   .226    3.6
42   19.0   .127    7.0      2      40   24.5   .224    6.5
40   28.9   .263   12.2      3      44   19.9   .133    1.5
.  Kyrie Irving                         Jrue Holiday      
mpg   PER   WS/48   BPM      rd     mpg   PER   WS/48   BPM
35   21.9   .163    4.9      R      33   14.4   .133    2.1
40   24.1   .234    7.8      1      35   10.8   .138    0.9
40   10.5   .050   -0.2      2      39   14.8   .153    2.2
41   18.3   .132    0.8      3      40   20.4   .216    5.2
.  P.J. Washington                      Jaylen Brown      
mpg   PER   WS/48   BPM      rd     mpg   PER   WS/48   BPM
32   11.0   .056   -1.2      R      33   18.6   .121    0.7
35   11.2   .078   -0.3      1      34   19.1   .108    0.6
36   15.4   .136    4.1      2      36   21.0   .189    2.7
39    9.2   .056   -2.5      3      41   21.3   .143    1.7
.  Derrick Jones Jr.                    Derrick White    
mpg   PER   WS/48   BPM      rd     mpg   PER   WS/48   BPM
23   11.7   .083   -1.5      R      33   16.9   .171    3.8
29   12.0   .108   -0.6      1      34   25.8   .321   10.3
32   13.0   .102    2.1      2      33   14.3   .153    1.8
33    8.0   .076   -1.1      3      39   20.0   .222    6.7
.  Daniel Gafford                       Al Horford        
mpg   PER   WS/48   BPM      rd     mpg   PER   WS/48   BPM
21   25.0   .257    5.9      R      27   15.0   .172    3.6
18   14.2   .112   -3.2      1      26   17.3   .242    4.9
23   21.0   .178    4.4      2      32   13.0   .115    0.4
24   20.4   .189    2.3      3      35   16.6   .172    3.0
.  Dereck Lively II                    Kristaps Porziņģis 
mpg   PER   WS/48   BPM      rd     mpg   PER   WS/48   BPM
23   18.1   .183    0.5      R      30   23.2   .226    5.1
20   22.3   .230    4.1      1      21   18.9   .235    4.2
23   14.0   .102   -0.8      2       0         
18   27.8   .356   11.4      3       0         
.  Josh Green                          Payton Pritchard   
mpg   PER   WS/48   BPM      rd     mpg   PER   WS/48   BPM
26    9.9   .071   -2.7      R      22   15.3   .160    1.0
17   15.0   .190    2.9      1      23    6.5   .095   -4.9
18   12.7   .128    3.3      2      23   18.8   .200    4.8
19    8.4   .069    0.6      3      16   15.2   .165    1.3
.  Jaden Hardy                          Sam Hauser         
mpg   PER   WS/48   BPM      rd     mpg   PER   WS/48   BPM
13   11.2   .014   -4.1      R      22   13.0   .134    1.2
2    34.5   .279    8.9      1      17   17.6   .238    5.7
5    -3.8  -.201  -13.8      2      12    7.3   .078   -3.2
10   20.2   .164    3.8      3      15   -1.3  -.113  -10.2
.  Maxi Kleber                          Luke Kornet       
mpg   PER   WS/48   BPM      rd     mpg   PER   WS/48   BPM
20    8.8   .080   -1.3      R      16   19.8   .248    3.4
19   13.3   .152    3.8      1       5   19.1   .291    6.3
0                            2      15   19.0   .238    0.5
5    -1.8  -.047   -7.1      3       5   12.3   .049   -1.2
.  Dante Exum                          Xavier Tillman Sr.  
mpg   PER   WS/48   BPM      rd     mpg   PER   WS/48   BPM
20   13.7   .127   -0.6      R      14   13.3   .142    0.0
9      .1  -.135  -11.6      1       1   30.4   .462   22.9
5     7.2   .043   -3.0      2       4   11.2   .183    0.5
5    11.0   .113    1.6      3       6     .6  -.064  -10.4
.  Tim Hardaway Jr.                              
mpg   PER   WS/48   BPM                     
27   12.1   .050   -2.9                     
4     9.1   .068   -2.3                     
16   11.0   .068   -1.1                     
3     1.9  -.053   -7.4

mpg are minutes per team game in playoffs; per game played in RS.

Posted: **Mon Jun 03, 2024 3:28 pm**

Playoff factor matchup analysis:

https://x.com/bballstrategy/status/1797414013976051837

Looking at offensive playoff to date factors - defensive playoff to date factor of finals opponent for each team then comparing the net for each factor.

Posted: **Wed Jun 05, 2024 11:58 pm**

20 years ago, the Pistons in midseason acquired Rasheed Wallace; and the rest of the season put up overwhelming point differentials. This led some of us to predict they would 'upset' the Lakers in the Finals; and they did.

These Mavs are not quite that, but they did have an abrupt improvement after acquiring Gafford and Washington for the last 30 RS games. Their 28 games before the last two (clearly tanking) match up pretty well against the Celtics' season:

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tm      ORtg   DRtg   Net   3PAr    TS%   TRb%   Stl%  Blk%
Dal28  119.5  111.1   8.4   .422   .602   50.9   7.5   11.6
Bos    123.2  111.6  11.6   .471   .609   51.7   7.0   11.9
                        
tm     eFG%   opp    TO%  opp    ORb%  DRb%  FT/fga  opp 
Dal28  .575  .524   10.9  11.5   21.9  77.9   .178  .176
Bos    .578  .523   10.8  10.8   24.9  76.3   .180  .145

They are closer in the playoffs due to (1) Porzingis' absence for Boston, and (2) likely tougher RS schedule for Dallas.
Celts shoot and rebound slightly better; Mavs with a TO-diff. edge.

Posted: **Thu Jun 06, 2024 3:04 pm**

Fwiw, maybe something, maybe not:

Tatum vs Mavs in regular season, 2nd most point of all opponents. Brown, 3rd most. Holiday, tied for 7th most. White, 3rd least. Porzingis tied for 7th most. Horford tied for 5th most. Strangely only in big tie for 9th most as a team. I guess the bench did less than high.

For Mavs, Doncic had 14th highest scoring on 3rd worst ts%. Irving, tied for 5th lowest scoring on 3rd worst ts%. Lively, 9th highest, Washington 6th highest, Gafford not a real minutes test.

Posted: **Fri Jun 07, 2024 4:16 am**

The Celtics starting unit won their time by just 1 point and with Porzingis surprisingly just neutral. That was the best news for Mavs on the night.

Neither starters played 1/3rd of game. Mavs less than 1/4th.

Kidd has to fix the mixed starter / bench unit issue. Partly probably by playing the full starters more.

Lively was a problem tonight.

There were some positive moments from the deep bench.

Coaches don't usually adjust much after game 1. I don't know the other adjustments yet but they should.

Posted: **Fri Jun 07, 2024 11:45 am**

Celtics 1 - 0 Mavs
107 - 89
Pythagorean wins .92 - .08 , eWins .71 - .29 :

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eWin   per36 rates   tm   min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.16   Jaylen Brown   Bos   37  .629   29.8   5.8   2.3   3.0   2.3  3.0   2.08
.14   Kr. Porziņģis  Bos   21  .714   46.7   9.5    .0    .0   1.9  4.9   3.18
.13   Luka Dončić    Dal   39  .526   29.5   9.2    .8   1.9   3.7   .0   1.64
.11   Jrue Holiday   Bos   35  .600   15.6   9.2   6.0   1.1    .0   .0   1.44
.09  Daniel Gafford  Dal   14  1.00   42.0   7.9   2.4   2.7    .0   .0   2.98

.08   Al Horford     Bos   30  .625   15.1   8.4   4.2    .0    .0  2.5   1.33
.08   Derrick White  Bos   35  .625   21.2   2.0   6.0   1.1   2.4   .0   1.10
.08   Jaden Hardy    Dal   11  .650   50.2   8.9   2.7    .0    .0   .0   3.34
.06   Sam Hauser     Bos   16  1.00   32.4   6.1   2.4    .0    .0   .0   1.93
.06   Jayson Tatum   Bos   42  .471   14.4   9.3   4.9    .0   6.1   .9    .66

eWin   per36 rates   tm   min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.04  P.J. Washington Dal   37  .500   12.2   7.8    .9    .0    .0   .0    .56
-.00  Derrick Jones  Dal   29  .278    3.0   7.5    .0   1.3    .0   .0   -.02
-.00  Dereck Lively  Dal   18  .500    3.8   9.3   1.7   1.9   3.8   .0   -.03
-.01  Kyrie Irving   Dal   37  .316    7.2   2.9   1.7   2.0   3.0   .0   -.11
-.01  Maxi Kleber    Dal   19  1.00    7.0    .0   1.6    .0   1.8  1.8   -.26

-.01  Josh Green     Dal   20  .375    3.3   5.0    .0    .0    .0   .0   -.29
-.01  Pa. Pritchard  Bos   16  .000     .0   4.1   4.8    .0   2.5   .0   -.40

shooting : Bos .592 - .482 Dal
rebounds: Bos 47 - 43 Dal
turnovers: Dal 11 - 14 Bos

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. Bos     min   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480      . Dal    min   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Tatum     42    8.5  -.007   -3.3    .66      Dončić   39   20.9  -.035    7.7   1.64
Brown     37   24.9   .311   12.1   2.08      Irving   37    2.0  -.251   -6.8   -.11
White     35   14.0   .218    3.3   1.10    Washington 37   13.8   .109    0.5    .56
Holiday   35   18.3   .314    5.9   1.44      Jones    29    5.3  -.058   -5.6   -.02
Horford   30   20.0   .278    8.7   1.33      Green    20    5.7  -.015   -4.1   -.29
Porziņģis 21   35.5   .349   15.6   3.18      Kleber   19    4.1   .011   -2.2   -.26
Pritchard 16  -15.9  -.274  -24.9   -.40      Lively   18    4.1  -.053   -8.2   -.03
Hauser    16   21.5   .366   10.9   1.93      Gafford  14   40.8   .492   18.0   2.98
                                              Hardy    11   40.7   .441   22.1   3.34
                                              Hardaway  8   -2.5  -.170   -5.5   -.42
. totals 232   17.0   .213   4.55   1.42     . totals 232   11.6   .000  -0.04    .57

https://www.basketball-reference.com/pl ... anced.html

Posted: **Sun Jun 09, 2024 2:13 pm**

Celtics got a lot of edge (12pts) from last few minutes of 1st and 3rd quarters where they had a starters on the court edge and Luka was not out there.

What changes in that time period?

Posted: **Mon Jun 10, 2024 3:06 am**

Mavs 5 most used lineups won by +12 so far, but should have been used more. Rest of lineups lost by about -37. Starters won again but stayed at 11 minutes per game.

Celtics had 2 moderately bad lineups but overall did well.

APBRmetrics

2024 Finals: Boston Celtics vs Dallas Mavericks

2024 Finals: Boston Celtics vs Dallas Mavericks

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Re: 2024 Finals: Boston Celtics vs Dallas Mavericks

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